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TRANSCRIPT
ELECTRICITY ACCESS IN PAKISTAN Summary Slides
March 2016
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This slide deck was prepared by Enclude in collaboration with Foresight Research, under contract to The World Bank. It is one of several inputs into the activity Strategy to Scale-Up Renewable Energy in Pakistan [P146251], which was implemented over the period January 2015 to May 2016. The activity was funded and supported by the Asia Sustainable and Alternative Energy Program (ASTAE), a multi-donor trust fund administered by The World Bank, and was led by Oliver Knight (Senior Energy Specialist) and Anjum Ahmad (Senior Energy Specialist). The slide deck provides a summary of the methodology, results and conclusions from a study to assess electricity access in Pakistan, focusing on the surveys that were undertaken. It accompanies a separate report that describes the methodology and approach. The survey data can be downloaded from The World Bank s Energy & Extractives Open Data Platform.
Copyright © 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK
Washington DC 20433
Telephone: +1-202-473-1000
Internet: www.worldbank.org
This work is a product of the consultants listed, and not of World Bank staff. The findings, interpretations, and
conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive
Directors, or the governments they represent.
The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and accept no responsibility for any
consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work
do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the
endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge,
this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for non-commercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is
given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,
The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: +1-202-522-2625; e-mail:
[email protected]. Furthermore, the ASTAE Program Manager would appreciate receiving a copy of the
publication that uses this publication for its source sent in care of the address above, or to [email protected].
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INTRODUCTION
Enclude in collaboration with Foresight Research carried out an approximately 8,500 strong household survey to measure the energy access rates, consumption patterns and economic & psychographic drivers to ‘energy relevant’ behaviours.
As highlighted in the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), the energy sector is one of three priorities for the WB’s engagement in Pakistan and this activity is a World Bank’s (WB) initiative to better understand the opportunities, challenges and policy barriers relating to the scale-up of renewable energy in Pakistan and has been funded by the Asia Sustainable & Alternative Energy Program (ASTAE), a multi-donor trust fund administered by the WB.
The objective of the research was to improve our understanding of the ‘energy poverty’ in Pakistan & gain ‘actionable’ insights into needs & behavioral drivers for energy consumption.
The specific objectives of the research:
• To carry out a country-wide survey on electricity access primarily utilizing remote sampling techniques to deliver a snapshot of electricity access in Pakistan that covers the level of electricity access by household (availability and use), awareness of available solutions, and willingness to pay, with sufficient granularity to make statistically relevant comparisons
• To inform ongoing policy discussions, programs, and investments aimed at increasing access to electricity in Pakistan, by providing reliable baseline data to public and private sector stakeholders;
Survey Delivery Medium
Although the initial intention was to use SMS (short messaging service) and telephonic interviews as the primary survey delivery vehicles – after deliberation that face to face Computer Aided Personal Interviewing (CAPI) surveys be used as a primary delivery medium to improve the quality and relevance of the outputs from this activity .
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METHODOLOGY
Approach
In order to collect the needed information for the access to electricity analysis, awareness of alternative
solutions and willingness to pay, data was collected amongst 8,461 households and used CAPI/ Face-to-Face interviews.
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WHAT DOES THE SURVEY COVER?
Profiling
• Basic Demographics
• Need based profiling
Energy Access
• Grid Access
• Duration
• Reliability
• Legality
• Affordability
• Safety
Alternate Solutions
• Awareness
• Usage
• Experience
• Relevance
• Willingness to Pay(WTP)
Multi-tier Framework for Energy Access – WB, UN SE4ALL
The following three thematic areas were covered by the survey(s).
1. Access to electricity: Get an understanding of the type of electricity sources currently used (grid and off-grid), for which activities (studying, cooking etc), hours of usage per day, the satisfaction levels (withregards to usage, reliability, availability) and the expenditures (upfront and recurrent) and costs ofdifferent electricity solutions.
2. Awareness on alternative solutions: determine to what extent households are aware of alternativeenergy solutions (solar, off-grid solutions) available in the market.
3. Willingness to pay (WTP): getting an understanding of the amounts households would be willing to payfor an alternative energy solutions and cross checking this with their current spending, ability to pay andsatisfaction levels.
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RESEARCH SETUP
CAPI Survey: Using mobile phone surveying technology & laptops:
• Data collected was immediately uploaded to the database, ready for analysis.
• Only questions relevant to respondent were shown
• Simplified and speedy conducting of the survey
• Possibility to monitor collected data through database
• System could be used offline too
• GPS data was collected (where android smartphones were employed)
A survey pilot was conducted and tested by Foresight Research before fielding it.
Dedicated Trainings: In-depth trainings on the survey, CAPI methodology, quality assurance
were conducted by Foresight Research under the supervision and support of Enclude’s technical team. Apart from the internal trainings conducted for Foresight Interviewers, 4 regional trainings were conducted at the following locations:
• Multan (Punjab)
• Peshawar (KPK)
• Karachi (Sindh)
• Quetta (Baluchistan)
Data Quality & Control: • CAPI scripting & built-in software checks
• a separate and independent team of quality assurance
• UTrack, a location tracking system to ensure the authenticity of its interviews (where used).
• Accompanied interviewing, spot checking and back checking also employed.
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UNDERSTANDING THE SAMPLING
Where possible each town was divided into 5 sectors (Center, North, East, West and South) of approximately equivalent area. In each sector, certain number of “neighborhoods” was determined & was treated as a statistical unit in which the respondents were contacted. This approach was loosely followed for small rural communities due to evident constraints. Within the ‘neighborhood’, interviewers were instructed to contact the households while walking from the pre-specified starting point & following the right hand rule . The accompanying figure illustrates this approach.
For this survey, after consultation with the WB team, it was decided to employ ‘alternate’ channels for survey delivery and respondent recruitment to: 1. Cost effectively boost sample size 2. Reach out to rural areas 3. Gain insights into leveraging alternate channels for future WBG research projects
For this the household panel maintained by Foresight Research was supplemented by approximately 80 rural clusters through the Digital Hubs being operated by Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund’s (PPAF). Enclude and Foresight evaluated and trained the staff from the Digital Hubs (DH) to effectively deliver on this project and in accordance with strict quality control instituted for this activity.
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DEFINING URBAN, PERI-URBAN & RURAL
For the purpose of sampling and analysis, the following 3 segments were used based on their geographical location and sizing:
• Urban Areas: These consist of top metro towns typically with populations greater than 100,000
• Peri-Urban Areas: These consist of settlements and towns peripheral to urban areas and/or large towns with populations greater than 10,000 but less that 100,000
• Rural Areas: These will consist of small villages typically with populations less than 10,000 The Urban household population is summarized in the following table:
Strata Strata Description
(Population of Cities)
Number of
Cities in
Universe
Total
Population
Strata Share in Total
Urban Population
(%)
I More than 4 million 2 24,379,533 33%
II Between 0.5 to 4 million 14 19,692,725 27%
III Between 0.1 to .5 million 71 14,278,016 20%
IV Less than .1 million 388 14,731,057 20%
475 73,081,331 100%
Foresight Estimates based on Economic Survey Pakistan 2014, Census Reports 1998 & 1981, PDS
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HOUSEHOLD PANEL: FORESIGHT
Understanding the Household Panel: Foresight Research maintains Pakistan’s largest household panel
consisting of over 7,500 households. Given the project’s requirement to selectively recruit households to better understand the ‘energy poor’ and also have a significant representation of the affluent households required a hybrid recruitment through an existing household panel and supplementing it with recruitment in geographical locations that were likely to be suffering from unmet energy demands. The following tables detail the ‘universe’ of the household panel from which the panel was drawn for this project.
Provincial Region Peri Urban Rural Urban Grand Total
BALUCHISTAN 269 176 155 600
NWFP 537 294 230 1,061
PUNJAB 1,029 846 2,368 4,243
SIND 269 329 998 1,596
Grand Total 2,104 1,645 3,751 7,500
Region SEC A SEC B SEC C SEC D SEC E Total
BALUCHISTAN 148 151 154 128 19 600
NWFP 253 272 278 170 88 1,061
PUNJAB 1,126 1,093 1,143 592 289 4,243
SIND 466 382 414 213 121 1,596
Grand Total 1,993 1,898 1,989 1,103 517 7,500
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PPAF DIGITAL HUBS
Thematic Area Training Outcomes
Basic Research Concepts The trainees imparted with research concepts enabling them in understanding and fielding basic
surveys with the objective of ensuring a good quality research output
Survey Techniques & Best
Practices The trainees able to understand survey flows, coding, special instructions and appreciate various
dimensions of a ‘well conducted survey’
ICT & primary research Comfort with delivering surveys (and uploading results) through specific digital mediums and through
the resources available at the Digital Hubs.
Fielding a Survey – An Exercise The trainees were familiarized with various aspects of interviewing and engaging interviewees –
allowing them to effectively field surveys.
Quality Assurance Familiarized with various aspects that constitute a ‘high quality research’ and what ensures ‘data
integrity’. Able to digitally transmit data to the ‘client’ as well.
Details
Digital Hubs Engaged All 80 existing digital hubs are expected to take part. Fielding of the survey is planned as a
‘compensated’ activity.
Geographical Distribution of
DH Punjab – 21 Baluchistan – 10
KPK – 20 Sindh – 29
Sample Total targeted sample: 8,000 Sample per DH: Between 100 to 125
Actual Sample: 5,581
Understanding the Digital Hubs: Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) set up 80 digital hubs
under their LEED programme in rural communities of Pakistan to pilot an innovative model of social enterprises that seeks to boost economic activity through the provision on ICT services to rural communities. Enclude in partnership with PPAF was able to train educated DH staff members to effectively deliver on this project. A list of the 80 locations is provided as an annexures. The following table summarizes the training themes and outcomes from our capacity building of the DH staff.
DIG
ITAL H
UB
S: TH
E 80
CLU
STERS
80 Rural Clusters – PPAF DIGITAL HUBS
Sr. Name of UC(s) District Province Sr. Name of UC(s) District Province
1 Noor Pur Machiwala Rajanpur Punjab 41 Talhata Mansehra KPK
2 Gulwala Muzaffargarh Punjab 42 Nangarparkar Tharparker Sindh
3 Sharif Chajra Muzaffargarh Punjab 43 Bhetoor Ghotki Sindh
4 Haji Pur Rajanpur Punjab 44 Ali Bagh Ghotki Sindh
5 Umer Kot Rajanpur Punjab 45 Ibrahim hyderi Karachi Sindh
6 Tatar Wala Rajanpur Punjab 46 Mahar Thatta Sindh
7 Aali Wala D.G Khan Punjab 47 Sukhupur Thatta Sindh
8 Paighan D.G Khan Punjab 48 Karam Pur Thatta Sindh
9 Vahova D.G Khan Punjab 49 Kothi Thatta Sindh
10 Miani Bhawalpur Punjab 50 Gharo Thatta Sindh
11 Jalalabad Bhawalpur Punjab 51 Dhabeji Thatta Sindh
12 Mari Sheik shajra Bhawalpur Punjab 52 Chuhar Jamali Thatta Sindh
13 Toba Qalandar Shah Bahawalnagar Punjab 53 Ladiyoon Thatta Sindh
14 Pir Sikander Bahawalnagar Punjab 54 Googani Thatta Sindh
15 Noor Sir Bahawalnagar Punjab 55 Hoat wassan Sanghar & Thatta Sindh
16 Aulakh Thal Kalan Layyah Punjab 56 Shahmardanabad Sanghar & Thatta Sindh
17 Jaman Shah Layyah Punjab 57 kumbdarhon Sanghar & Thatta Sindh
18 Ladhana Layyah Punjab 58 Maldasi Sanghar & Thatta Sindh
19 Ghazanfar Garh Muzaffargarh Punjab 59 KAR Shah Sanghar & Thatta Sindh
20 Jhalarian Muzaffargarh Punjab 60 Bhugra Memon Badin Sindh
21 TBC Muzaffargarh Punjab 61 Abdullah Shah Badin Sindh
22 Khander khan Khel Bannu KPK 62 Ahmed Rajo Badin Sindh
23 Marmandi Azim Lukimarwat KPK 63 Kadhan Badin Sindh
24 Komila Kohistan KPK 64 Dai Jarkas Badin Sindh
25 Kuza Bandi Swat KPK 65 Khairpur Gambo Badin Sindh
26 Paimal Batagram KPK 66 Ahori Badin Sindh
27 Biari Batagram KPK 67 Islamkot Tharparker Sindh
28 Alpuri Shangla KPK 68 Pellu Tharparker Sindh
29 Lilownai Shangla KPK 69 Manjthi Tharparker Sindh
30 Kuz Kana Shangla KPK 70 Dhabhro Tharparker Sindh
31 Ganori Dir Upper KPK 71 Kawas Ziarat Balochistan
32 Kuz Abakhel Swat KPK 72 Ziarat Ziarat Balochistan
33 Hazara Swat KPK 73 Kach Ziarat Balochistan
34 Sazine Kohistan KPK 74 Zindra Ziarat Balochistan
35 Jijal Kohistan KPK 75 Shah Noorani Khuzdar Balochistan
36 Shahpur Shangla KPK 76 Rodh Malazai Pishin Balochistan
37 Kala Kalay Swat KPK 77 Dilsora Pishin Balochistan
38 Sararogha (SWA) South Wazirstan Agency KPK 78 Sarawan Kharan Balochistan
39 Sararogha South Wazirstan Agency KPK 79 Joda-e-Kalat Kharan Balochistan
40 Kernol Mansehra KPK 80 Tohmulk Kharan Balochistan
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SAMPLE & DELIVERY
Recruited Household Panel
(N=2,881)
Rural, Urban, Peri-urban
Formal trained interviewers
Largely female respondents
Informal Rural Clusters - PPAF
(N=5,580)
~ 80 Rural Clusters
Specially trained local resources
Dedicated technical support
4 Provinces
8.6k Households
CAPI Interviews
>70 Union
Councils
>80 locations
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SAMPLE & DELIVERY
Punjab 3,033
Urban/ Peri-Urban 909
Rural 2,124
Sindh 2,127
Urban/ Peri-Urban 341
Rural 1,786
Baluchistan 1,528
Urban/ Peri-Urban 195
Rural 1,333
KPK 1,773
Urban/ Peri-Urban 446
Rural 1,327
HO
USEH
OLD P
RO
FILE HOUSEHOLD PROFILE
House Type
House Size
# of Rooms
Urban & Peri-Urban Rural
Single Storey 61% Two Storey %
57% Hut
38% Single Storey
Less than 6 50% More than 9 16%
50% Less than 6
21% More than 9
Less than 2 22% More than 4 50%
60% Less than 2
17% More than 4
HO
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OLD P
RO
FILE HOUSEHOLD PROFILE
SEC
Occupation
Extended Family
Urban & Peri-Urban Rural
SEC D & E 45% Avg. Income 32k
84% SEC D & E
19k Avg. Income
Agri & Related 8% Salaried Employee 32%
78% Agri & Related
76% Skilled/ Unskilled
Extended Family 41% 37% Extended Family
Access to Grid Electricity Skewed across provinces
Lower grid access in rural areas
AC
CESS TO
ELEC
TRIC
ITY ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY
Grid electricity primary source Followed by local mini-grid,
batteries & solar energy 97%
Years using Primary Source Urban areas <16
Only 6% with less than 10 yrs >30
Between 81%
to 86%
3.5 km
From the grid (HH with no access) 9km in Rural areas
Grid access too costly in no access areas
Baluchistan
Sindh
Punjab
KPK
GR
ID AC
CESS
Access to national grid
Map of access to the national grid per province and region
Access to Grid Electricity Higher representation of
‘Rural Areas’
Between 81%
to 86%
* Correcting for sampling bias
EN
ERG
Y CO
NSU
MP
TION
PA
TTERN
S ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
Lighting Items & Basic Space Cooling
High penetration of communication items
Lighting, cooling major household needs
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Non energy saver light bulb
Tube light
Light bulb - energy saver
Fan
Radio
Phone charger
Black and white TV
Color TV
Computer
Printer
Electric food processor
Electric cooking system
Microwave oven
Electric toaster
Air conditioner
Electric heater
Regularly used Owned
CO
NSTR
AIN
TS & U
NM
ET NEED
S CONSTRAINTS & UNMET NEEDS
Poor Satisfaction
Scores
• Only 11% satisfied
• Mainly the grid connected hh dissatisfied & mainly in the rural areas
Power Outages
• High duration but predictable
• Rural areas more affected
• Something on load shedding
Inefficient Lighting Sources
• Continued reliance on incandescent bulbs. Poor penetration of LED
Unpredictable interruptions main constraint of the primary source of electricity
Low voltage or fluctuations (47%) and unpredictable interruptions (44%) driving low statisfaction
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Extremely satisfied
Very satisfied
Neither satisfied nordissatisfied
Slightly dissatisfied
Extremely dissatisfied
Urban
Peri Urban
Rural
LO
AD S
HED
DIN
G
Load shedding
KPK: 83% More than 3 times
Punjab: 91% More than 3 times
Sindh: 73% Less than 6 times
Baluchitstan: 82% Less than 6 times
On average loadshedding takes place 3-6 times a day Rural and peri-urban areas similarly affected Punjab & KPK more adversely affected
Map of amount of load shedding per day
ELEC
TRIC
ITY USE A
ND A
VA
ILAB
ILITY Electricity usage and availability
2.06 Hours of
electricity available
between 6-10pm
2.53
4.00
3.30
2.74
Baluchistan KPK Punjab Sindh
3.17 Hours of non-natural light
used
Gap between availability (2.06 hours) and usage (3.17 hours) of electricity
ALTER
NA
TIVE E
NER
GY S
OU
RC
ES EXPLORING ALTERNATIVES
76% Interested in Alternative
Improved availability and affordability of electricity source driving high interest in alternative energy solutions (76%)
82% Need
improved availability
Rural High
interest for alternatives
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Availability (time)
Affordability
Cost savings
Long product life
Suitable for multiple uses
Easy to transport in case of moving
More reliable and better quality indoor light
Reduce space usage
Safety (fire hazard)
Improvement in health
Security (outside light)
ALTER
NA
TIVE E
NER
GY S
OU
RC
ES EXPLORING INTEREST IN ALTERNATIVES
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Rural
Peri Urban
Urban
no
yes
WILLIN
GN
ESS TO P
AY
Willingness versus Ability to Pay
Urban Highest
WTP
2,044Monthly
energy Bill in PKR
<10% Energy bill of monthly
income
523 Monthly
WTP Price Point
<3% WTP of monthly income
High interest in alternative energy solutions (76%) being held back by low WTP particularly in the rural areas and in Baluchistan province
PKR 0
PKR 5,000
PKR 10,000
PKR 15,000
PKR 20,000
PKR 25,000
Baluchistan KPK Punjab Sindh
Income WTP Current Energy bill
PKR 0
PKR 5,000
PKR 10,000
PKR 15,000
PKR 20,000
PKR 25,000
PKR 30,000
PKR 35,000
Rural Urban
Income WTP Energy bill
SO
LAR EN
ERG
Y Solar Awareness and usage
85% Trust Solar
Power
46% Know
someone using solar
16% Own a solar
product
63% Know where
to buy it
High awareness of what solar is and where to buy solar products Awareness low in urban areas (interestingly) High levels of trust in rural areas. Urban areas trust levels low (38%)
Map of hh owning a solar product (lantern or SHS)
DEM
AN
D D
RIV
ERS
DEMAND DRIVERS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Extremelysatisfied
Very satisfied Neither satisfiednor dissatisfied
Slightlydissatisfied
Extremelydissatisfied
yes, interested in alternatives no, not interested
Correlation between satisfaction levels and interest in alternatives
No correlation between amount of load shedding and satisfaction levels or interest in alternatives
No correlation between grid access and satisfaction
levels
Grid connectivity (or the lack of it) does not seem to have much influence on the satisfaction levels of households on their electricity source
Demand drivers particularly increased availability / longer hours of electricity source, even for those currently having high availability
ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY
WILLINGNESS TO PAY
AWARENESS
CO
NC
LUSIO
NS
KEY CONCLUSIONS
HIGH awareness
& interest in alternatives (incl. solar)
Urban Highest
WTP
LOW WTP
523 PKR per months
<3% WTP of monthly income
16% solar
penetration rate
Although there is
demand for electricity that is available for longer hours (for instance
solar) the low WTP can make private sector delivery of
alternatives a challenge, mainly in
rural areas
>83% grid
High rural representation
53% Lighting /
cooling main household
needs
11% Satisfied
with current energy source
82% Availability
(hours) main demand
driver
CO
NTA
CT IN
FOR
MA
TION
Contact Information:
Hassam Hussain
Consultant, Sustainable Business Practices [email protected]