electricity market update · 9/9/2020 · 4 day ahead lmp’s $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00...
TRANSCRIPT
Electricity Market UpdateSeptember 9, 2020
2
Temperature Forecast
6 – 10 day
8 – 14 day
3
Historic Temperatures
4
Day Ahead LMP’s
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
LMP DA Averages
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
5
Natural Gas Storage
• 13% above the 5-year average(Last update was 18% above 5-year average)
6
Storage vs. Price
7
Natural Gas Production
89.0
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
BC
F/D
ay
US Production of Dry Natural Gas: EIA 2020 Forecast Ave: 89.65 BCF/DayCurrent 2020 Ave: 91.15 BCF/Day
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
8
Natural Gas Production
• EIA in its August STEO expects further declines in gas production as lower oil activity will reduce associated gas output.
• Rig counts are off 67% since the start Jan and frac crews are off 77%. This could impact ability to keep up with natural decline rates in shale production, which decline after initial high yields.
9
Dry Natural Gas Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
Monthly Dry Gas Production - Shale (BCF/Day)
Total Dry Gas Production
Fayetteville (AR)
Mississippian (OK)
Niobrara-Codell (CO & WY)
Bakken (ND & MT)
Woodford (OK)
Barnett (TX)
Eagle Ford (TX)
Haynesville (LA & TX)
Permian (TX & NM)
Rest of US 'Shale'
Utica (OH, PA & WV)
Marcellus (PA, WV, OH & NY)
07.01.20 Production Analysis
Total Production: 89.2
Shale Production: 68.1
Ohio Production: 30.6
OH vs Shale: 45%
OH vs Total Production: 34.3%
Energy Imports / Exports
10
Liquid Fuel Forecast
11
12
LNG Exports
2019
13
Ohio All Customer Class (Indust, Comm, Res) Usage
2020
2019 2020 % Change
Jan 11,664,743 11,266,229 -3%
Feb 11,584,444 10,549,629 -9%
March 10,704,595 10,431,107 -3%
April 9,923,334 9,219,020 -7%
May 9,505,274 8,482,784 -11%
June 10,083,262 9,808,649 -3%
2019
14
Ohio Industrial Usage
2020
2019 2020 % Change
Jan 3,635,077 3,539,404 -3%
Feb 3,614,247 3,434,201 -5%
March 3,462,476 3,543,069 2%
April 3,596,027 3,157,263 -12%
May 3,576,537 2,761,449 -23%
June 3,520,906 3,062,077 -13%
15
NYMEX Natural Gas Futures
$2.25
$2.35
$2.45
$2.55
$2.65
$2.75
$2.85
$2.95
$3.05
Av
era
ge
Pri
ce p
er
Dth
($
)
NYMEX Average Wholesale Prices
Cal 21
Cal 22
Cal 23
Cal 24
16
Electricity Forwards
$24.00
$25.00
$26.00
$27.00
$28.00
$29.00
$30.00
$31.00
Ave
rag
e P
rice
pe
r M
Wh
($
)
AEP Dayton Hub Annual Average Wholesale Prices
Cal 21
Cal 22
Cal 23
Cal 24
17
Electricity Forwards
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Pri
ce (
$/M
Wh
)
AEP Historical vs Forward Price as on 09.09.20
Forward - 2020 Forward - 2021 Forward - 2022 Day Ahead - 3 Year Ave Day Ahead - 2019 Day Ahead - 2020
18
Electricity Forwards
From 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 1/1/2019 1/1/2020
To 9/9/2020 9/9/2020 9/9/2020 9/9/2020 9/9/2020
Cal Year 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Current Price 28.74$ 27.46$ 26.71$ 27.36$ 28.23$
Maximum Price 30.22$ 30.22$ 30.87$ 29.22$ 28.37$
Minimum Price 25.51$ 24.69$ 24.54$ 24.75$ 26.70$
Date of Maximum 3/14/2019 12/28/2017 3/25/2018 5/20/2019 9/4/2020
Date of Minimum 7/3/2019 7/8/2019 7/8/2019 7/8/2019 3/23/2020
Compared to Low 12.6% 11.2% 8.8% 10.5% 5.7%
Power RTC $ / MWh on 09.09.20