elementary statistics: stem vs. nonstem
DESCRIPTION
Elementary Statistics: STEM vs. nonSTEM. Dave Usinski : [email protected] Lynn Meslinsky : [email protected]. Our Question. What are the best predictors of success in Statistics and how can we use these to determine whether this course should be STEM or nonSTEM?. Overview. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Our Question
What are the best predictors of success in Statistics and how can we use these to determine whether this course should be STEM or nonSTEM?
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Overview
• Revisit MT112/MT116 non-STEM Pathway– Has it been successful?
• Incorporate Placement Data• Kendall’s Tau B (rows = columns) and C
– Contingency table rank correlation coefficients between numeric vs ordinal and ordinal vs ordinal
• Binary Logistic Regression Analysis– Predicting future course success
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We looked at our other non-STEM courses
How did lessening the algebra prerequisite requirements affect the course success rates?
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Overall College Fall Headcount, Number of Students Passing MT112/116 in Fall,
Number of Students Passing MT112/116 in entire Year
02/FA 03/FA 04/FA 05/FA 06/FA 07/FA 08/FA 09/FA 10/FA 11/FA 12/FA0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Student Totals
Fall HeadcountFall passing MT112/MT116Year passing MT112/MT116St
uden
ts
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Same as Previous except as Percent Change from Fall 2002
02/FA 03/FA 04/FA 05/FA 06/FA 07/FA 08/FA 09/FA 10/FA 11/FA 12/FA-20.00%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Percent Change based on Fall 2002
% change Fall Headcount% change Fall Passing MT112/MT116% change Yearly passing MT112/MT116
Perc
ent C
hang
e
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We looked at the last course taken prior to taking Statistics
Which courses had the best predictive value in terms of success in Statistics?
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We also compared placement results in reading to placement
results in algebra/math.
Which Accuplacer or SAT result had a higher correlation to success with Statistics?
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Correlation CoefficientDescribing Strength of Association
Characterizations
>.5 high association
.3 to .5 moderate association
.1 to .3 low association
0 to .1 little if any association
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MT143 (Statistics) PredictorsPredictor Kendall’s Tau
B or CCorrelation Coefficient95% Confidence Interval
AccuPlacer Reading (55 to 110)
C n=953 0.135 (0.089 to 0.181)
AccuPlacer Algebra (55-110) C n=793 0.107 (0.059 to 0.156)SAT M (300-700) C n=2722 0.146 (0.120 to 0.172)SAT V (300-700) C n=2675 0.091 (0.064 to 0.119)MT013 (Elementary Algebra) B n=707 0.265 (0.206 to 0.325)MT112 (Survey of Math) B n=931 0.328 (0.278 to 0.378)MT125 (College Alg. & Trig I) B n=2156 0.380 (0.349 to 0.412)MT126 (College Alg. & Trig II)
B n=690 0.360 (0.305 to 0.415)
MT175 (Survey of Calculus) B n=735 0.340 (0.286 to 0.395)
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MT175
MT126
MT125
MT112
MT013
SAT M
SAT V
AP Alg
AP Reading
0.450.400.350.300.250.200.150.100.05Data
Boxplot of AP Reading, AP Alg, SAT V, SAT M, MT013, MT112, MT125, ...
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43210
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
grade
Y-Da
ta
0.6
>=B- Probability>=C+ Probability>=C Probability>=C- Probability
Variable
MT013 grade vs MT143 grade
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43210
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
grade
Y-Da
ta
0.6
>=B- Prob>=C+ Prob>=C Prob>=C- Prob
Variable
MT112 grade vs MT143 grade
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Conclusion
There is little difference in the predictive value of Developmental Algebra vs. Liberal Arts Math in determining a grade in Statistics.
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120100806040200
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
score AP Read
Y-Da
ta
0.6
0.75
>=B- Prob APREAD>=C+ Prob APREAD>=C Prob APREAD>=C- Prob APREAD
Variable
AccuPlacer Read vs MT143 Prob
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120100806040200
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
score AP Alg
Y-Da
ta
0.6
0.75
>=B- Prob APALG>=C+ Prob APALG>=C Prob APALG>=C- Prob APALG
Variable
AccuPlacer Algebra vs MT143 Prob
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Conclusion
An Accuplacer reading score of about 63 is needed to have a 60% chance of C or better in Statistics while an Accuplacer Algebra Score of about 30 will do the same thing.
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800700600500400300200
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
score SAT M
Y-Da
ta
0.6
0.75
>=B- Prob SATM>=C+ Prob SATM>=C Prob SATM>=C- Prob SATM
Variable
SAT MATH vs MT143 Prob
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800700600500400300200
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
score SAT E
Y-Da
ta
0.6
0.75
>=B- Prob SATE>=C+ Prob SATE>=C Prob SATE>=C- Prob SATE
Variable
SAT Eng vs MT143 Prob
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Conclusion
SAT score showed the opposite! A higher SAT Math, 270, was needed to show 60% chance of C or better in Statistics while only a SAT Verbal had no impact.