eliott large: chicago cubs and data: how analytics led to insights, wins, and revenue

Chicago Cubs

A real-world, successful application a data mining topic

Presented by: Eliott Large

ITM 615-L

Eliott Large

Web Analyst and MBA Candidate 2

Contents

• Overview

• Industry information• Why Analytics?

• History of the Cubs and why they need data

• Link to DELTA Model

• Results and Analysis

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Major League Baseball: Industry Overview

• Comprised of 30 teams in 2 leagues: American League and National League

• Analytics in baseball started decades before other sports, unofficially formalized in 1971 with the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR)

• Teams began using computer simulations with IBM BASIC in the 1970s

• Bill James pushed sabermetrics to the masses and Michael Lewis popularized it with Moneyball (2003 book and 2011 film)

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Why Analytics?

• "A modern front office is trying to convert dollars into wins. Modern statistics are intended to help us understand how to get from dollars to wins.”

-Bill James

• Analytics-centric teams need to study how to score runs and how to prevent the other team from scoring runs.

• # Runs a player will contribute + # Runs he will prevent = Dollars a team can afford to spend for that player

MONEYBALL

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• 1870: Team Established

• 1902 Team renamed

• 1908: Last World Series win

• 1945: Last World Series Appearance

• 1945: “Curse of the Billy Goat”

• 2003: Bartman Incident• Five outs away from the World Series.

The Cubs: A History(Problems Leading to/Needing Data)

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Leadership• Tom Ricketts bought the Chicago Cubs

from The Tribune Company in 2009. They did not have a winning season until 2015.

• Theo Epstein, President: Rebuilt the Red Sox as the youngest GM in history and led them to three World Series titles after an 86-year drought. He signed in 2011. • Brought in Jed Hoyer, General

Manager and Jason McLeod, Director of Amateur Scouting

• Joe Maddon, Manager, signed for the 2015 season

• Creating a new culture by removing older players who wouldn’t fit in to “The Plan”

• Scouting, Drafting, and Developing became data-centric

D E L T A

C U L T U R E

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DataD E L T A

• Theo Epstein had been known as one of the modern proponents of analytics while with the Red Sox.

• The Cubs and Bloomberg Sports designed a state-of-the-art player evaluation for the Operations Department.

• Highly confidential. Combines video and technology to evaluate players.

• Proprietary database system, Ivy, examines player performance and creates models to rationalize player expenditures.

• Most important uses of data: Scouting Reports, Medical Information, and Decision-Making

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Enterprise

• Epstein’s hybrid approach: thorough statistical analysis and deep research on individual players.

• Rebuilt the enterprise from the ground up:

• Organizational meeting of 150 scouts, minor and major league personnel for four days in AZ.

• Creation of Baseball Research and Development Group

• All scouts are trained to capture and upload player data to Ivy

• Vision of the Cubs Way: from pitching and hitting to how they would teach defense to the personality makeup of players.

• “That’s Cub”

D E L T A

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AnalystsD E L T A

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Targets

• “Embrace the Target” Mantra

• 2015: National League Championship Series after winning the Wild Card with 97 wins (3rd-Best Record in MLB)

• Drafting and developing: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, Willson Contreras

• Acquiring: Ben Zobrist, Jon Lester, Dexter Fowler, Addison Russell, Kyle Hendricks, and Miguel Montero

D E L T A

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2015 Results• Wins Above Replacement (WAR)

How many wins a player contributes above a replacement player at a specific position

Source: Chicago Mag

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2015 Results• WAR and Payroll

How many wins a player contributes above a replacement player at a specific position

Source: Chicago Mag

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2015 Results: WAR by Position

Source: Chicago Mag

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2015 Results: Advanced Metrics• Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR):

Addison Russell

• Measures how many runs a player saved compared to an average fielder, representing defensive value

• Addison Russell replaced their former shortstop, Starlin Castro, and became the best shortstop in all of baseball.

Source: Chicago Mag

Source: Chicago Mag

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2015 Results: Advanced Metrics

• 2015 National League Cy Young Winner Jake Arrieta

Source: Chicago Mag

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2015 Results: Advanced Metrics• Walk-to-Strikeout Ratio: Ben Zobrist

• Measures a hitter’s plate discipline and how well they avoid striking out. Zobrist was only one of six players to walk more than they were struck out.

• Plays every position but Pitcher and Catcher

Source: Chicago Mag

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Results: Wins

66

85

97

83

75

71

61

66

73

97

103

96

77

64

78

87

91

101

96

89

65

58

.200

.300

.400

.500

.600

.700

.800

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Wins and Losses by Year

W L Win %

Record-setting 103 Wins, the best since 1910.

Source: baseball-reference.com

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Results: Attendance

• 2016 averaged just under 40,000 people per game

• Topped 3 million total tickets sold for just the 3rd time.

25,000

27,000

29,000

31,000

33,000

35,000

37,000

39,000

41,000

43,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Avg Attendance per Game

Cubs Attendence/Game MLB Avg Attendance/Game


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Results: Ticket Prices

$34.30 $34.30

$42.49$47.75 $49.56

$46.90 $46.30 $44.55 $44.16 $44.81

$51.33

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

25

5,025

10,025

15,025

20,025

25,025

30,025

35,025

40,025

45,025

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Avg Ticket Price per Year

Cubs Attendence/Game Cubs Avg Ticket Price ($)

As fandom increases and demand for tickets rises, so does the average price of a ticket.


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Results: Wins and Revenues

2016 set a record in annual ticket revenues reaching $167 million.

MONEYBALL.

66

85

97

83

7571

6166

73

97103

$10,000,000

$30,000,000

$50,000,000

$70,000,000

$90,000,000

$110,000,000

$130,000,000

$150,000,000

$170,000,000

$190,000,000

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Ticket Revenues by Wins

W Cubs Full Season Ticket Revenue


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2016 Status• Became favorites to win the World Series

• 103-58-1 Record, most Wins since 1910

• Multiple MVP candidates in Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant

• Clinched top seed and home field advantage until the World Series

• The integral Theo Epstein, Jed Hoyer, and Jason McLeod all received 5-year extensions

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October 22, 2016 Update: IT HAPPENED!

Cubs defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in 6 games to win the NL

Pennant and advance to the World Series for the first time since 1945.

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Where do you think they fall?

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Works Cited

• Primary Article: • Moser, Whet. "The Math Nerd's Guide to the Chicago

Cubs." Chicago Mag. N.p., 28 Mar. 2016. Web. 09 Oct. 2016. <http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/April-2016/Eamus-Catuli/>.

• Theo Epstein History:• Ted Gregory. "Mastermind of the Cubs' Title

Quest." Chicago Tribune. Chicago Tribune, 3 Oct. 2016. Web. 09 Oct. 2016. <http://mobile.digitaledition.chicagotribune.com/infinity/article_popover_share.aspx?guid=2aa8d86c-bd2c-4bf2-b8a4-70e92a62af67>.

• Data: • Attendance and sales data from various pages on

www.baseball-reference.com