Climate Change and Food Security: Brazil

Elisio Contini & Geraldo B. Martha, Jr.

International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security, 6-8 Nov 2011, CAAS/IFPRI, Beijing, China

Outline

• Recent agricultural development;

• Potential impact of climate change on agriculturalproduction;

• Some policies alternatives to mitigate carbonemissions;

Evolution of Agriculture in Brazil

RECENT AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

Overview

Low Ag production and low yields;

Production concentrated in South/Southeast;

Food supply crisis;

Rural poverty;

Lack of specific knowledge on Tropical Agriculture;

Institutional void (ag research, education, markets, media governmental agencies, etc.).

Brazilian Ag before the 1970’s

The task: to move from trad. ag to one based on science & technology

M.Lopes (2011).

MAPA (2010).

Brazil 1970 1975 1980 1985 1996 2006

Product index 100 139 173 211 244 343

Input index 100 122 142 149 137 153

TFP 100 114 122 142 178 224

Land productivity 100 135 162 196 230 324

Labor productivity 100 129 158 185 241 348

Source: Gasques, Bastos, Bacchi, Valdes (2010).

TFP in Brazilian Agriculture, 1970 - 2006

159.51

37.32

49.251,258

3,239

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

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100.00

120.00

140.00

160.0019

76/7

719

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80/8

119

81/8

219

82/8

319

83/8

419

84/8

519

85/8

619

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91/9

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93/9

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95/9

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420

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05/0

620

06/0

720

07/0

820

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920

09/1

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1

Yiel

d (k

g/ha

)

Prod

uctio

n (m

illio

n to

ns) a

ndar

ea (m

illio

n ha

)Production (million tons) Area (million ha) Yield (kg/ha)

+ 240%Variation, 1976/77 to 2010/11 + 32% + 157%

Source: after Conab.

Grains and Oilseed Production, Area and Yield (1976 – 2011)

Beef Production 3.36%

Pasture Area Animal ProductivityX

Stocking ratesAnimal performance X

~ 21% ~ 79%

~ 38% ~ 62%

G.B. Martha Jr., E.Alves, E.Contini (2011).

Land‐saving effect: 525 M ha

Factors of Growth in Beef Production (1950 – 2006)

Natural Cerrado

Water body

Crops

Cultivated pastures

Urban areas

Reforestation

90% of the Amazon Biome and 61 % of the Cerrado Biome is still covered by the original 

vegetation !

Sano et al., Pesq. Agrop. Bras., v.43, 153-156, 2008

Area with Human Activities (Probio, 2007)

4.2%

10.7%9.5%

11.0%

21.4%23.0%

26.6% 27.5%

37.5%

0%

7%

14%

21%

28%

35%

42%

UE27 Canadá EUA Austrália Índia China Rússia Ucrânia Brasil

Gro

wth

in a

gric

ultu

ral

prod

uctio

n (%

)

OECD/FAO (2010).

Brazilian Agriculture: Some Projections (2010/2019)

Evolution of Agriculture in Brazil

POTENCIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL

PRODUCTION

Pinto & Assad (2008).

Projected Temperatures

Pinto & Assad (2008).

Variation (%) in Potential Cropland

Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.

Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Area

Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.

Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Production

Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.

Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Yield

Source: IFPRI (2011), unpublished.

Simulation with IFPRI´s Impact Model – Soybean Net Trade

Source: Haddad et al. (2010).

Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Brazilian Economy

AgricultureIndustryServicesGDP

A2 - Scenario B2 - Scenario

Evolution of Agriculture in Brazil

SOME POLICIES ALTERNATIVES TO MITIGATE CARBON EMISSIONS

Brazilian Climate Change Law

217 329901 735 694329

416

627494 461883

1.329

1.084

415 41586

114

92

84 82

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

1994 2005 2020 2020(I) 2020(II)

M t

CO

2-e

Energy Agriculture Land-use Industry+Residues

1515 2187 2704 1728 1652

36% 39%

Projected GHG Emissions in Brazil in 2020

Data from MCT (2011), G.B. Martha elaboration.

Mitigation

• potential to mitigate emissions;

• associated benefits that increase agricultural yield and resilience;

• high‐priority to mitigate actions that have strong adaptation benefits;

Adaptation

Mitigation and Adaptation Technologies

Action Total area(M ha)

Projected GHG emissionreduction (M t CO2‐e/yr.)

Total cost(R$ billion)

No‐till planting 8 16 a 20 2,40

Biological N fixation 5,5 16 a 20 0,30

Recovery of degraded pastures 15 83 a 104 19,65

Integrated crop‐livestock systems 4 18 a 22 34,20

ABC Program

Source: Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA).

• Available resources R$ 3.15 billion;

• Limit: up to R$ 1 million per farmer;

• Threshold for a period up to 8 years; deadline for paying for a period up to 15 years;

• Interest rate 5.5% per year;

Agricultural and Livestock Plan 2011/2012 (ABC Program)

May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Integrated Crop-Livestock Systems Alternatives

1960

1975

2005

Evolution and expansion of soybean in Brazil

Adaptation of Crop Varieties

Concluding Remarks

• There are clear opportunities to expand food, biofuels and fiberproduction in a sustainable way in Brazil. Intensifying pastoral systems will be of central importance;

• The experience of Brazil’s agricultural transformation is proof that it is possible to have an efficient and competitive agriculture in the tropics;

• The development of Brazilian agricultural was predominantly basedon productivity gains;

• Projected effects of climate change in Brazil are still uncertain.