Elite Estates St. Petersburg, Russia

Ruth Kruger, CCIM, CIPS, RSPS, TRCWorldwide Exclusive Properties-Aspen

Where do intl buyers come from?

What countries?

What price ranges do they buy in?

Are they all cash purchasers?

What do they buy?

What states do they buy in?

Foreigners “lens” on American market

Long term orientation. Not flippers. Not looking for the quick deal. Real estate is a long term investment.

High equity stake with little leverage.

Lots of homework: data, analysis, research.

Belief that US still safest place to invest.

US Homeowner Market

No Mortgage35%

Sub-prime9%

Gov't Loan6%

Fixed Rate50%

75 Million Homeowners

75 Million Homeowners

75 Million Homeowners

Median Price

Since 1972, according to the NAR, median home price increased an average of 6.2%/year.

That means home values double every 10 years?

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Median Home Price

Historic Price drop in 2007

2007: first year since World War II where prices have fallen nationally . . .

Drop was 1.4% according to NAR . . .

What do other indices say?

Affordability is at five year highs according to NAR.

Fiduciary Trust has put together this chart that shows affordability now back to sustainable levels.

Housing: back to being affordable.

But what is the most reliable indicator?

Demographics

Population Growth

US Population Growth

Today – 300,000,000

2040’s – 400,000,000

Brookings Institute says…..

Pop growth creates demand for 59 million homes by 2030

or 2.67 million homes per year

Virginia Tech says…

Pop growth creates needs for 70 million homes by 2040

Or, 2.1875 M per year

Marriages + babies = home sales

Also . . . Last 2 years

4 Million marriages

8 Million babies born

US Home Construction

How many are we building?

Less than 1M/ year

If we have demand for more than 2,000,000 new homes yearly….

And we are building less than 1,000,000 new homes yearly….

Then purchasers have to buy existing homes…

Doing what to prices….?

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Median Home Price

Country providing the most stable and secure real estate investments - 2008

Countries providing the best opportunity for capital appreciation - 2008

Mean real estate portfolio geographic distribution - 2008

Ranking of countries for real estate acquisitions2008 and 2009

The responses were scored with 6 points to each respondent’s first choice, 5 points to second choice, and so on with 1 point for the sixth choice.

Ranking of emerging countries considered for real estate acquisitions in 2009

The responses were scored with 6 points to each respondent’s first choice, 5 points to second choice, and so on with 1 point for the sixth choice.

Ranking of global cities for real estate investment - 2008

The responses were scored with 3 points to each respondent’s first choice, 2 points to second choice, and 1 point for the third choice.

Average planned and completed real estate equity acquisitions, 2008-2009

Forbes.com Why Aspen Prices Are Holding UpMatt Woolsey, 04.22.09, 04:00 PM EDT

Nationwide, property values are declining. In Colorado's tony ski town, vacation-home seekers continue to spend millions. Plus, a peek at the country's 10 most expensive ZIPs. There was plenty of snow on Aspen's much-skied Buttermilk Mountain this season, and that helped three local neighborhoods to record property prices. The 81611 ZIP code--home to sprawling wood beam and stone ski lodges and on the south end of Aspen--is currently the most expensive neighborhood in the country, boasting a whopping $6.5 million median home sale price. Neighboring Snowmass Village (81615) and Snowmass (81654) aren't far behind: They landed at fourth and seventh place on our list of priciest ZIPs with median prices of $3.99 million and $3.7 million respectively.

Brent Gardner-Smith, Aspen Daily News Staff Writer Thursday, May 1, 2008

Russian billionaire might be Pitkin County’s richest property owner

Roman Abramovich, who paid $36.4 million for a home near Snowmass Village on Tuesday, might be the richest property owner in Pitkin County.

Forbes magazine estimated in March that Abramovich’s net worth is $23.5 billion. That puts the 41-year-old Russian oil tycoon at number 15 on the Forbes World’s Billionaires list, far above others on the same list who are known to keep homes in Aspen. He is one of 99 Russian billionaires now on the Forbes list.

Ruth Kruger, CCIM, CIPS, RSPS, TCR 

400 East Hyman Avenue Mall, Aspen, CO 81611