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Get Out the Vote: Wyoming

Brian Ellison

August 17, 2014

Aaron Cooley, PhD.

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Abstract

Get out the Vote WyomingBrian Ellison

Over the past 50 years consultants and candidates have fallen in love with the

television but is that where and how voters get their motivation? Or is it the personal

phone call, letter, or person that knocks on their door and asks them to vote? The

purpose of this paper is to look at ways of motivating voters to the polls on Election

Day. Elections are decided by closer and closer margins of victory every cycle,

shaking every tree and turning over every leaf to find voters is becoming more and

more important. Voter turnout maybe relatively high about 58% but it may not always

be this high. We may see turnout go back to the ’96 levels when voter turn out was

only 49%.1 To prevent this from happening we need to know how to motivate them to

the polls. “The apathy of voters constituted one of the greatest menace of the greatest

menaces to the an intelligently governed democracy.”2

1 Sarah Janssen, The World Almanac and Book of Facts, 2014, 512.2 Harold F. Gosnell, Getting out the Vote; an Experiment in the Stimulation of Voting, 1st ed. (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1927), 4.

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Abstract..........................................................................................................2

Chapter 1: Introduction to GOTV..................................................................3

Background .........................................................................3

Super Majority?....................................................................4

Focus.....................................................................................5

Money or Something Else.....................................................5

Red/Blue...............................................................................5

Underdogs.............................................................................6

Secondary Research.............................................................8

Project Approach and Methodology..................................11

Implications of Research....................................................11

Project Limitations.............................................................11

Conclusion.........................................................................12

Chapter 2: Literature Review.........................................................................15

How do you Know?...........................................................15

Voter Registration..............................................................15

Why We Don’t Vote?........................................................16

They Have Something Better to Do...................................16

Why Do We Vote?.............................................................17

Everybody is Else is Doing It, So Should You..................17

The Benefits.......................................................................18

Voting in Stages.................................................................19

Social Pressure...................................................................20

An Upset by Mail ................................................................22

Thank you............................................................................22

Tools of Motivation...........................................................22

Table 2-1 ...................................................23

Increasing Turnout.............................................................23

TV and Radio.....................................................................24

Benefits of TV....................................................................25

The Reasoning Gut Voter..................................................27

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Conclusion.........................................................................27

Chapter 3: Primary Research Methodology...................................................28

Introduction........................................................................28

Stakeholders Interest............................................................28

Approach and Methodology................................................29

Research Design...................................................................29

Crafting the Message...........................................................32

Ethics Considerations...........................................................34

Limitations...........................................................................34

Conclusion...........................................................................35

Chapter 4: Conclusion and Recommendations..............................................36

Conclusion...........................................................................40

Appendix A....................................................................................................42

New Jersey High Turnout Script..........................................42

New Jersey Low Turn Out Script........................................42

California High Turnout Scripts..........................................43

California Low Turnout Scripts...........................................43

Appendix B....................................................................................................45

Examples of Gerber and Greens GOTV mailers ................45

Appendix D....................................................................................................47

Gerber, Green and Larmier Social Pressure experiment ... .47

Appendix E....................................................................................................49

Example of How to Set Up Randomization Table In Excel 49

Annotated Bibliography.................................................................................50

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Chapter 1: Introduction to GOTV

Background

In 2009 and 2010 the Wyoming Democratic Party received $5000 a month to use for

advertising, the question was where and how should the money be allocated? The majority

said put it in TV but the question was, why? The answer was because everybody watches TV

and thats what everybody else has done since the 1950’s. There are only two media markets

in Wyoming, Cheyenne and Casper. The group was also going to buy airtime in the

surrounding states in Billings, MT; Rapid City, SD; and Denver, CO; no doubt costing the

state more than the $5000 a month, donated by an anonymous donor. The other question was,

how was the party going to test their effectiveness in the beginning of 2010, months before

the mid-term elections. That question was never answered either. A small minority on that

committee felt that money would be better spent in radio because most everybody listens to

radio in Wyoming and it is cheaper than TV. The question again was raised how would they

test the effectiveness of the radio commercials, that question went unanswered?

The TV commercials did get produced. They were introductory ad’s that explained

what Democrats stood for and the legislation that the party supported since FDR. The ad’s

languished in obscurity on YouTube receiving on 310 views since it was posted on March

12, 2010.3 For what ever reason the ad’s never hit the small screen in people’s living rooms

or reached the ears of Wyoming. The question remains what works best to motivate voters, to

persuade voters, to vote for Democrats in Wyoming; is it TV, radio, or is it neither?

We will find out that direct mail, canvassing and phone calls have a longer

3 Wyoming Democratic Party, "Ham&Eggs," YouTube, March 12, 2010, accessed August 18, 2014, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0PrA2FVUzg.

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lasting, more effective impact of motivating voters. These can be like surgical strikes,

conducted under the nose of the other side and they will not know what hit them.

Super Majority?

Wyoming is a special place because the state is one of the few in the Union that has a

super majority of Republicans. The question that is asked is why are people Republican in

Wyoming. The short answer is then they have somebody to vote for in the states primary-

which leads one to believe that people take their voting responsibility very seriously or do

they? Are people voting because there is more choice or thats just what they have always

done. But this would mean they are not studying the candidates as close as they should they

are not considering the other sides candidates or their positions, leaving Democratic

candidates high and dry.

Democrats only hold eight seats out of 60 in the Wyoming House; the state deserves a

stronger minority party than eight members. The numbers are just as bad in the Senate out of

30 seats Democrats fill four. How does the Wyoming Democratic Party establish a stronger

presence in the House and motivate people to vote for them in the polls? How do Democrats

win with less money in Wyoming because TV and radio are expensive plus they do not

always reach the people you want to reach? How do Democrats reach the people they need to

reach without kicking over a hornet’s nest and risk further increasing the Republicans vote

turnout? The answer is micro-targeting reaching only those people who you think will vote

for you; spending money to send a post card asking for someone’s vote who is 100% certain

not going to vote for you is a waste of resources.

Focus

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The Democratic Party needs to focus only on those that they think will vote for them,

this means slicing the electorate in to interest groups or similar interests and conform

messages just to those individuals. Sending direct mail pieces, phone calls, door-to-door

messages directly to these people; ranchers would receive information about the Democratic

Party’s platform on ranching; to motorcyclists information that are important to them

including infrastructure.

Money or Something Else

Many believe that it is not the party but the quality of the candidate and the amount of

money the candidate has that determines the winner; the candidate with the most money

wins, right? We have seen that that is not necessarily true by evidence of the Brat v Cantor

race in Virginia. We have all heard that the former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor spent

more on steak than David Brat did on the whole race. Was it because Eric Cantor was out of

touch in his district; did he anger the TEA Party over his vote on immigration and the

shutting down the government; or was it because Brat invested heavily in get out the vote

(GOTV) resources? As long as the media are focusing on Cantor ‘being out of touch’ with

the voters in his district the longer the underdogs have a chance to win. Still after at least 16

years people are over looking the obvious question what is the importance of GOTV? Money

plays a part but not as big of a part as one would think, that is a discussion for another day.

Spending your money right aimed at the right people is how money helps.

Red/Blue

Democrats in Wyoming believe that it is almost no use in running for office because

they feel they will not win. Also Democratic voters do not vote because they do not feel their

vote matters. It can be over heard by many Democrats, they are wasting their vote when they

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go to vote in a general election, they do not feel their vote counts, ‘the Republican is going to

win anyways.’ How do we change this attitude? They need to be personally asked to vote

instead of hoping they vote, through impersonal TV, radio and road signs. After they are

personally asked the Democratic candidates should also focus on weak Republicans and

independents? Much of the reason people do not run is because of the Red/Blue State myth.

The red/blue analysis is an easy short hand for the media; it creates an ‘us vs. them’

mentality on cable news, it foments tension. The red/blue comes out of generic polling, if

they are given the choice of a Republican or a Democrat than the people in that state would

vote that party but when you attach a name to it like David Duke a republican self a vowed

racist and Barack Obama than the vote would change. It is easy for American’s to remember

the red for a Republican and Blue for a Democrat, just like they were voting for their favorite

sports team-hopefully they would not choose their favorite candidate based on color-the color

just gives them a way to identify either party. The red/blue divide hurts the political process

because it intimidates potential candidates from running. People who have the potential to be

good quality candidates may feel, ‘why should I run I will just be embarrassed.’

Underdogs

There are plenty of examples of candidates winning in a red/blue state. Scott Brown

beat his Democratic opponent, Martha Coakley, because he ran a better campaign. Browns

opponent infamously said what do you want me to do stand outside and shake hands at

Fenway Park4, referring to Brown doing just that before the NHL’s Winter Classic in January

2010. It must be assumed that his opponent just figured because it was a “blue state” that she

would win. Dave Freudenthal a Democrat in the very “red state” of Wyoming was re-elected

4 Jason Linkins, "Democrat Martha Coakley: An Object Lesson In Complacency And Detachment," The Huffington Post, January 19, 2010, accessed July 16, 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/19/democrat-martha-coakley-a_n_428164.html.

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as governor. Now David Brat in Virginia, there are lesser-known campaigns that have upset

the dominant state party.

In 1999 Audie Bock won a seat in the California state assembly by beating the

Democratic candidate and former Oakland mayor Elihu Harris. Bock won in a district where

her party, the Green party, was outnumbered by Democrats 66% to 1% and out spent 20 to 1;

she beat her opponent by 336 votes.5 It has been speculated that incumbents begin to take

their win as inevitable; therefore they do not try enough.

In 2002 Rick Perry ran for his first term as Texas Governor, after finishing President

George W. Bush’s term after he was elected President in 2000. Rick Perry was outspent in

his gubernatorial election by his opponent Tony Sanchez in 2002 by almost three to one $76

million to Perry’s $28 million. Sanchez barraged Perry with close to $40 million in attack

ad’s yet at the end of the day Perry won by almost 20 points.6 It is not the most money wins

what else is it.

Is it possible that the Republicans are thinking that in Wyoming, they do not need to

do as much because the state is a red state? There is a way for Democrats to win in Wyoming

it has not been mastered or taken advantage of. For a Democrat to win it takes a lot of time

and effort for a Democratic candidate to win, many biases to overcome, ‘Gov Dave,’ as he is

affectionately known, was able to work to figure that out and overcome these biases. One of

the things he did was knock on a lot of doors; he and his daughter would work 18-hour days

to win. Obama was not supposed to get re-elected in 2012 but he did because he lifted up

every rock and leaf to find pockets of voters.

5 Jennifer Warren and Maria L. La Ganga, "Upset Puts Green Party on the Map," Los Angeles Times, April 01, 1999, accessed July 16, 2014, http://articles.latimes.com/1999/apr/01/news/mn-23308.6 Sasha Issenberg, The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns (New York: Crown, 2013), 228.

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Democrats wring their hands about their chances but are they doing the same old

thing that everyone has done? Buying radio and television ad’s, knocking on every door they

can find and shaking every persons hand they can is evidently is not doing it. Doing things as

mentioned before is like kicking a hornet’s nest reminding people why they hate the opposite

party, that is why it is best to try and walk around the hornets nest.

Secondary Research

Much of the research that has been done has focused mainly on getting out the vote in

non-partisan studies, but all the studies that have been done have been shown to work. There

are a few studies that show partisan get out the vote studies also work. An example of that is

the work done to get Rick Perry elected governor in Texas.

There have been more than three-dozen studies on GOTV operations since 1998. All

the studies that I have reviewed have been randomized experimental designs that split

registered voters into a control group, which you do nothing to, and a treatment group. The

treatment group is then split into groups depending on the type of GOTV you are doing either

all treatments-canvassing, direct-mail, and phone calls-or a just one treatment or a

combination of the three. Following the past studies using these methods to send to only

Democrats, weak Republican voters, and Independents regardless of the message should

increase voter turnout for the Wyoming Democratic party. Studying Wyoming can be

difficult because voters who to not participate in two consecutive elections are taking off the

rolls. It would be very helpful if Wyoming

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Alan Gerber and Donald Green are considered two of the biggest experts in the field

of the GOTV. They have published books and many papers on this subject and they have

found that there is at least one vote is produced out of every 14 face-to-face encounters.7

Harold Gosnell first looked at getting non-voters to register in 1924, after he

surveyed six thousand Chigacoan’s asking them why they did not vote in 1923. He found the

same reasons in 1924 as he did in 1923. He developed non-partisan direct mailers to send to

3000 people in 12 districts to register to vote, he saw a 10% increase in the amount of people

who registered to vote for the 1924 presidential campaign over a control group of three

thousand who did not receive mailers; 75% registered while 65% did not.8 After he saw his

non-partisan post cards calling on people to vote worked in the 1924 Presidential election he

turned his sights on the 1925 to stimulate those who register to turn them into voters. All his

studies showed that reminding people to register and to vote had a positive influence on

getting people to the polls.

From Gosnells time until 1998 much was not done on voter motivation much of the

work was trying to explain voters as rational beings. They stayed away from randomized

experiments until Alan Gerber and Donald Green conducted the New Haven Experiments.

Gerber and Green’s studies studied the impact of different types of GOTV strategies on

blocks of people in New Haven, CT. They found that the more personal the contact the more

effective it is at motivating people to the polls.

By studying only research that has used randomized experimental designs there is

little room for bias. This type of study, quantitative, gives us a more accurate reading of what

7 Donald P. Green and Alan S. Gerber, Get out the Vote!: How to Increase Voter Turnout, 2nd ed. (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2008), 37.8Harold F. Gosnell, "An Experiment in the Stimulation of Voting," JSTOR, November 1926, 870, accessed May 26, 2014, http://www.jstor.org/stable/1945435.

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motivates people to vote. By using public records that indicate whether somebody voted in

the election being tested instead of calling people and asking them if they voted. Ten percent

more people will say they vote then actually voted.9 Since the inception of the secret vote

voting has gone down because there is not that public sense of shame, when everyone had to

go to a public place and announce their voice vote. There are some drawbacks because you

cannot in randomized field experiments, control for every possibility including people who

are not there when you knock on their door or call their house, or be sure that they even got

it.

Many people are of the opinion that yard signs are the best method for increasing

voter turnout in Wyoming but there has been no study of that treatment. Testing the affect of

yard signs are harder to test and control. You cannot control whom see’s signs and yard

signs. With the big three you can control who gets the message and how.

Project Approach and Methodology

The first thing that will need to be done is for the Democratic party to do an analysis

of the state to identify who will and will not vote for the party and identifying those that are

fence sitters. Fence sitters are independents who do not make up their decision until the very

end or until they have had a look at the specific candidates. Vote Builder.com is the first

place to start when analyzing the state for possible voters. Vote Builder is used by the

Democratic party nationwide, it is a centralized online database that contains all the voter

information to help with GOTV. Using Vote Builder to analysis the state, county or district

will decrease the time you need to take identify who is an R, D or Independent.

Implications of Research

9 A. L. Holbrook and J. A. Krosnick, "Social Desirability Bias in Voter Turnout Reports: Tests Using the Item Count Technique," Public Opinion Quarterly 74, no. 1 (February 04, 2010): 38-39, doi:10.1093/poq/nfp065.

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The information that is collected will be basic information, name, phone number,

address and voting preference; no more information than is needed for canvassing, mailing

and phone calls would be needed. To protect the information that is on the canvassing list

which are numbered on Vote Builder will need to be turned in at the end of the day to ensure

that the data is protected but also that information is put into the Voterbuilder database.

Project Limitations

This research should be used by any organization that is looking to target possible

voters. This could be used to find voters for referendums and initiatives. For this research to

work you have to be able to know whom you were trying to contact and not contact. The

people who are working for your particular campaign can be more at ease knowing they are

engaging people are likely to support your cause.

This experiment does not look at Internet communications effect on voter motivation.

This paper does not disregard the effects of radio and TV; it does have a place in campaigns

but the hope is that this will help and give hope to potential candidates that if they work hard

they can or prove to be a competitive candidate.

Conclusion

TV commercials are expensive and they do not have a make a big impact, it only

makes the candidates feel good when they see themselves on TV. However a candidate can

reach more people-the voters they want to vote for them-less expensive by calling people,

canvassing and mailing people directly. Much of what is discussed is micro-targeting, a

method like a precise laser guided focus. Exciting your base and your voters under the noses

of the other party, hopefully without them knowing what is even happening.

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The purpose of this paper is not to kick Democrats and point out why they are not

winning. The purpose of this paper is to help improve the chances of Democrats winning by

proposing research methods the party or an outside entity to take to test this thesis. Improving

Democrats voting numbers will give more people confidence in the Democrats ability to win

and to represent them.

Nationally elections have been the closest they’ve been in over 100 years, each vote

matters. One vote cannot decide an election but a 2% to 8% increase in voter turn out can

mean winning or losing. More people are voting than they have in the past 100 years, but to

keep these people voting we need to motivate them to do so, not just one election but every

election.

The question is what best motivates people to the polls and what works best to get

Wyoming’s rural voters to the polls. Further, when we do reach our voters, what is the best

wording to use to get voters to the polls? Is it shaming them, thanking them for voting in the

past, appealing to their patriotic side or asking nicely.

We need to look at the tone of the appeals are these going to be patriotic partisan

sounding. Can we send nonpartisan appeals to partisan people motivating them to vote or do

we have to send persuasion messages to partisan people. Can we send these messages to

people making them think that they are not the only one getting them that they are just

simply receive friendly get out the vote reminders perhaps that would not turn people off.

The limitations are the messages that people put together but we will look at people

who have had success with GOTV messages. If declining turnout is a result of fewer face-to-

face mobilizations than perhaps a Democrat showing up on somebody’s door would motivate

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more people to vote Democratic. As radio and TV has become the focus for campaigns has

voter turnout gone down.

It is believed that lower voter turnout is because people do not feel apart of the

process anymore, if more personal approach is taken can this lead a higher turnout. If you

knock on a Republicans door he will be polite at the door but then think to themself ‘hey

thanks for reminding me that I have to vote against you.’

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Chapter 2: Literature Review

How do you Know?

There are many theories and anecdotes about what motivates people to vote or why

people vote but how does anyone know. Many people can tell us what they did to win or

what worked for them. What candidate so-and-so did worked for them again how do they

know. A politician or a former campaign worker will many anecdote’s for what helped them

win and maybe data to back them up. Just because they may have invested heavily in to one

medium over another but also used other mediums does not mean that it is what worked.

Two things to remember “correlation is not causation” and data is not plural for anecdote.10

The best time to conduct a randomized field experiment of voter motivation is during

the primary and off year, Gubernatorial elections. Even though these years the Cowboy State

elects State wide officers, turn out is lower. These years are when most people are

uninterested or indifferent to politics so it is easier to find people who are not going to vote.

Also in primaries you have more room to experiment because if you make a mistake it is not

as costly if you are in a one person race are not as costly. Only voters who follow politics

close or are compelled by a specific issue are more likely to come out to vote in primaries

and gubernatorial elections, without motivation. Nationwide and in Wyoming, primary and

Gubernatorial elections attract less people, on average turn-out is 10% to 20% lower than

Presidential elections.

Voter Registration

Typically when trying to motivate people you first have to motivate people to register

in the summer and then get them to the polls. Fortunately in Wyoming they have same day

registration at the polls. It requires that you show your Wyoming drivers license or give them

10 Gerber and Green, 14.

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the last four of your social security number. Convicted felons are not allowed to vote unless

they have petitioned them to be restored. When you do your precinct analysis you can

identify those people who need additional information to register on Election Day.

Why We Don’t Vote?

There are many reasons people do not head to the polls, yet again, Wyoming has

made it easy to vote early taking away some peoples excuses. They allow early voting 40

days prior to election. Voters can have it mailed to them and then they can bring it back to

the County clerks office in person.11 Recent studies for why people do not vote, nationally,

show that 19% are too busy. Followed by 16% not interested, then 14% sick or disabled and

13% did not like the candidates or the issues.12 The challenge becomes for campaigns is to

find ways to over come objections, one ways it to appeal to peoples psyche.

They Have Something Better to Do

In order to understand what motivate voters, we have to first understand why people

vote, and then finally motivate them to the polls. In the election/campaign industry we have

to understand there is an opportunity cost associated with voting, a person must take time out

of their day to register and to figure out a time of day to do the deed on that particular day,

we cannot take their decision to participate for granted.

Why Do We Vote?

Why people vote is one of the most vexing questions in political science. There are

many answers to this question. There are at least three reasons vote, studies have shown that

11 Wyoming Secretary of State, "Registering to Vote," Wyoming Secretary of State, 2014, Absentee Voting, accessed August 22, 2014, http://soswy.state.wy.us/elections/registeringtovote.aspx.12 United States Census Bureau, "Table10. Reasons for Not Voting, by Selected Characteristics: November 2012," Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2012, November 2012, Table 10, accessed July 26, 2014, https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/p20/2012/tables.html

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vote because of altruistic ideas. They believe that they are making a difference in the world.

For others they fall in to the ‘voter illusion’ category. Voting for these people allows them to

project their own behavior on to people similar to themselves who are likely to support the

same candidate; “the other [voter illusion] allows them a route to believe that their individual

votes can affect the outcome by forecasting what might happen if they don't vote.”13

Although some might disagree that one vote could possibly make a difference in

small towns. “In a low turnout election each vote has a greater impact on the margin of

victory than in a high turnout election.”14 This is something that potential voters could be

made aware of; lots will decide tied votes.15 Others may only vote if they feeling they are

being socially pressured to voted.

Everybody is Else is Doing It, So Should You

Alan Gerber and Todd Rogers conducted two randomized field studies in 2005 and

2006, they studied how social norms can be used to motivate voters. There are two types of

norms injunctive social norms (you should not litter) and descriptive social norms (few

people litter).16 Rogers and Gerber, used two different phone scripts to test the two norms in

New Jersey and California. In New Jersey they called people the Saturday-Monday before

the General Election. In California they phoned Democrats the weekend before the Tuesday

California Party Gubernatorial Primary election in June 2006.

13 Christopher Munsey, "Why We Vote: Why Do We Vote?," American Psychological Association, June 2008, accessed May 26, 2014, http://www.apa.org/monitor/2008/06/vote.aspx.14Alan S. Gerber and Todd Rodgers, "Descriptive Social Norms and Motivation to Vote: Everybody’s Voting and so Should You," Center for Social Innovation, January 2009, 178, accessed May 26, 2014, doi:10.1017/S0022381608090117.15 Wyoming Election Code, §§ 16-105-119 et seq. (2014).16 Issenberg, 187.

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The New Jersey high turnout script (HTO) highlighted the fact, “…the vast majority

of eligible New Jersey voters actually voted.”17 The low turnout script(LTO) focused on the

fact that turnout was the lowest in over 30 years.18 After one of the scripts they were asked

rate the probability that they would vote in the upcoming election, the HTO script produced a

7% higher response that they were almost 100% sure they would vote. While doing their

research the also found those that infrequent voters were more affected than regular voters.

(See Appendix A for the both of the complete scripts.) The drawback to this experiment is

that they did not actually check to see if they voted after the election. This would be a great

way for a campaign to test the effectiveness of their GOTV messages going into the primary.

After the primary they would have a better idea which one would work the best for them.

The Benefits

Just like there are two types of social norms there are to benefits an elector can feel

from the act of voting. One is the instrumental benefit, a benefit that a person gets from

seeing their preferred candidate winning and the likelihood of casting the pivotal vote.19 The

other benefit is the consumption benefit it is the satisfaction we get from voting.20 In voting

the consumption benefit is the pleasure someone gets from fulfilling their civic duty,21 but

before someone reaches that feeling they go through three stages of voting. First a person

17Alan S. Gerber and Todd Rodgers, "Descriptive Social Norms and Motivation to Vote: Everybody’s Voting and so Should You," Center for Social Innovation, January 2009, 181, accessed May 26, 2014, doi:10.1017/S0022381608090117.18 Ibid.19 Todd Rogers, Craig R. Fox, and Alan S. Gerber, "Rethinking Why People Vote: Voting as Dynamic Social Expression," Harvard University, 2012, 2, accessed July 24, 2014, http://scholar.harvard.edu/todd_rogers/publications/rethinking-why-people-vote-voting-dynamic-social-expression.20 Ibid, 221 Ibid, 2

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forms the intention to vote, second is the act of voting they may feel a consumption benefit or

an instrumental benefit.22 Third, voting is seen as a person expression of self-identity.23

Voting in Stages

Those three stage of voting before, during and after so to speak, can be looked at

through the eyes of GOTV. Getting people to verbalize their intention to vote can motivate

them to vote. People once they make that verbalized commitment do not want to be seen as

breaking it. People also want to bring their behaviors in line with their beliefs and

expectations of themselves. Campaigns could place calls to inconsistent voters asking them if

they plan to vote, if the answer is yes sending a follow-up letter in the mail reminding them

of their commitment to vote just before election would prove beneficial.24 A similar

experiment was conducted in Pennsylvania it saw an 2% increase in voters to the polls

compared to the control group who did not receive any treatment.25 Once people have

made their intention to vote it becomes important for them to implement a plan. The same

experiment as mentioned before in Pennsylvania during the same 2008 Presidential primary

another treatment group received phone calls asking them not only if they planned on voting

but then them where they were going to vote; how they were going to get there; then finally

where will they be before they go vote.26 The researchers used phone calls to find out their

intentions and their plans this group came out 4.1% more than the control group who were

left on treated.27

22 Ibid, 723 Ibid, 724 Issenberg, 30525 Rogers, Fox & Green, 926 Ibid, 10.27 Ibid.

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As mentioned earlier people vote as a form of social expression, they want to be seen

as doing the right thing, being part of the in crowd. Sending most cards reminding people

what it means to vote or why other vote with simple postcards that state “I care about my

families future and setting a good example for them;” “I care about my society, and fulfilling

my civic duty.”28

Social Pressure

Directly targeting ones herd mentality that everybody is voting so should you can be

highly effective and highly controversial. Donald Green, Alan Gerber, and Christopher

Larimer conducted a study to see how social pressure can be used to motivate voters to the

polls. Four groups each receive one mailer each with different messages and a control group

did not receive any mail. The mailers were sent out 11 days before the Michigan primary.

The first group was reminded that voting was their civic duty.29 A second mailing simply

stated that they were being studied to find out why people voted or not.30 The third begins to

get into controversial territory, it reminds the reader that who votes is public information and

shows the voting record of the people at that address.31 Finally the fourth asks “What if your

neighbors knew whether your voted?”32 This mailer shows the recipients voting record but

also their neighbors voting record. It reminded them that after the election the same mailer

would be sent out and show whether they and their neighbors voted; this mailer had

increased voters by 8.1%.33 (See Appendix D)

28 Ibid, 1429 Alan S. Gerber, Donald P. Green, and Christopher W. Larimer, "Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment," American Political Science Review 102, no. 01 (February 2008): 37-38, accessed May 26, 2014, doi:10.1017/S000305540808009X30 Ibid.31 Ibid.32 Ibid. 33 Ibid, 38.

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The 8.1 percentage-point effect is not only bigger than any mail effect gauged by a randomized experiment; it exceeds the effect of live phone calls and rivals the effect of face-to face contact with canvassers conducting get-out-the vote campaigns. The more personal we can make the appeal—face-to-face is the most personal—the more effect we can be at motivating our voters.34

It should be noted that the follow up mailers were never mailed.An Upset by Mail

In North Carolina, a republican candidate running in a run-off for a House seat, Mark

Walker and working with limited funds, spent just one-fifth of his budget on direct mail. He

did not spend any money on TV and wound up winning the race.35

Thank you

Since 2006 there have been refinements made to the “neighbors” experiment. Costas

Panagopoulos in 2009 mailed out 2000 mailers to New York City residents thanking them for

voting in the previous election and then reminded them of the upcoming special city council

election.36 He also sent out mailers to a control group only

reminding them of the special election coming up. He found that thanking people increased

turnout by 2.5% than those in the control group.37

Tools of Motivation

We have covered why people feel the need to vote and talked about how to use those

reasons to motivate them. Now we look at what tools we will use to motivate voters and

which through randomized experiments work the best. In this study we look at the basic tools

34 Ibid.35 Tarini Parti, "An Unlikely Survivor in the Digital Age: Direct Mail," POLITICO, August 3, 2014, accessed August 3, 2014, http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/an-unlikely-survivor-in-the-digital-age-direct-mail-109673.html.36 Issenberg, 30737 Ibid, 308.

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of voter motivation direct mail, canvassing, phones, TV and radio. It has been noted before it

is worth noting again that the more personal the contact the more effective the results.

Table 2-1

Increasing Turnout

Gerber and Green, tested the effects of GOTV tactics on voters in New Haven

Connecticut. They conducted a randomized study the last four weeks before the 1998 mid-

term elections in November. They assigned people to either receive phone calls, direct mail

or face-to-face contact. Another set received a combination of mail and a knock on the door

or a mailer and a phone call.38 Ten thousand eight hundred people were randomly assigned to

38 Alan S. Gerber and Donald P. Green, "The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment," JSTOR, September 2001, Experimental Design, accessed May 26, 2014, http://www.jstor.org/stable/2585837.

22

the control group and received no contact whatsoever. The rest received just a phone call,

just mail or just a canvass. While a majority received a combination of both with some

receiving more than one, two or three pieces of direct mail. (See table 2-1 above for more

information.)39 They found that canvassing, face-to-face, had the most impact increasing

turnout by 9.8%, direct mail raised turnout by .6% per mailing and no significant increase in

turnout for those who receive just phone calls.40 Gerber and Green concluded, “Face-to-face

interaction makes politics come to life and helps voters to establish a personal connection

with the electoral process.”41

TV and Radio

The Texans for Rick Perry Campaign in 2006 hired four experts in the field of voter

motivation to develop strategies to get the most value out of campaign money during the

primary to hopefully use the lessons learned in the states general election. The campaigns

chief political consultant Dave Carney wanted try to save the campaign money but also save

the Governor time so that he could be home every night.

Carney hired four researchers, Alan Gerber, James Gimpel, Donald Green, and Daron

Shaw, to study the effect of TV and radio campaign advertising on voter preferences and how

long the effects of the advertising lasted on the viewer. They were given the opportunity to

control the $2 million media budget.42 To understand the effectiveness of the ads the team of

researchers randomly assigned the media buys in 18 of the 20 media markets in Texas and 80

39 Ibid.40 Ibid, 660.41 Green and Gerber, Get out the Vote!, 45.42 Alan S. Gerber et al., "How Large and Long-lasting Are the Persuasive Effects of Televised Campaign Ads? Results from a Randomized Field Experiment," American Political Science Review 105, no. 01 (2011): 135, doi:10.1017/S000305541000047X.

23

AM and FM radio stations.43 The Houston and Dallas/Fort Worth media markets, the two

largest in the state, were deemed to important to leave the randomization up to chance.44

They would test one political ad in all 18 markets assigning the number of plays per

week for four weeks. By design, during the fourth week all media markets did not see a Rick

Perry ad. For example in the study they assigned the Victoria media TV market 1,000

GRP’s(GRP’s=Rate * Frequency45) which averages out to a viewer seeing the ad about ten

times in a week In El Paso in the first week they received 500 GRP’s, Odessa received 250,

and Abilene none.46 These GRPs were randomized in media markets Abilene throughout the

experiment receive no ads.47

After four weeks of study they found that markets that TV has a strong effect on

favorability in the week they played, smaller the week after they played and no effects in the

following weeks. TV is like a sugar high for the candidate, their poll numbers will go up but

will not stay up. It would be best for a candidate to go on the air when they can sustain their

presence until the election.

Benefits of TV

Television can be effective in persuading people to change their opinions, through

what is called on-line processing. This is when a voter develops their opinion but does not

remember the original reason why they have this opinion and cannot defend it when put on

the spot.48 Another theory finds TV and radio advertising make voters rethink their positions,

43 Ibid, 13644 Ibid, 13945 Marketing Metrics Made Simple, "Gross Rating Points (GRPs)," Gross Rating Points (GRPs), na, accessed July 21, 2014, http://www.marketing-metrics-made-simple.com/gross-rating-points.html.46 Ibid.47 Ibid.48 William T. Bianco and David T. Canon, "Public Opinion," W.W. Norton & Company, 2010, WHAT IS PUBLIC OPINION?, accessed July 21, 2014, http://www.wwnorton.com/college/polisci/american-politics-today2/full/ch/05/outline.aspx.

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sometimes trying on an idea but then going back to their original opinion. This would fly in

the face of the rational choice theorist.

The Rational Voter

Rational Choice theory sees people as collecting all the “near perfect information,”

weighing the costs and benefits they need to make the right choice of whom to vote.49 Not

only are they weighing the cost of their vote by voting for the right candidate but also they

are exploring the opportunity costs of voting. Rational choice theory says people are

boundedly rational making the best decisions with limited information and time, it is called

satisficing.50 These same voters believe that if they vote, there is a chance that their vote is

could be the deciding one, unfortunately as grandiose as that seems, it will not be. You have

a better chance of chance of being hit by car on your way to the polls then you do of actually

casting that deciding vote to put a candidate over the top.51 If the voter is rational then why

does it seem that people vote against their own interest.

The Reasoning Gut Voter

It is probably safe to say that every voter is not a robot who can weigh every factor

when considering a candidate. Samuel L. Popkin believes that voters are like investors

looking for reasons to vote or not vote, weighing the pro’s and con’s, “They expend effort in

the expectation of gaining future satisfaction.”52 He believes they follow “gut” reasoning

which he explains as a, “Method of combining, in an economical way, learning and

information from past experiences, daily life, the media and political campaigns.”53

49 Thomas A. Birkland, An Introduction to the Policy Process: Theories, Concepts, and Models of Public Policy Making (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 2010), 302.50 Birkland, 30251 Rogers, Fox, and Gerber, "Rethinking Why People Vote… 2.52 Samuel L. Popkin, The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns, 2nd ed. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994), 10.53 Ibid, 7.

25

Reasoning voters look for cues to either vote or not vote for their particular candidate. Under

this theory Gerald Ford lost the 1976 election because of his failure to shuck a tamale, it

showed the American voter that Ford did not understand Hispanic-American issues.

However, psychologists are seeing that people are not able to make perfectly rational or

reasoned decisions.54 The fact is some of these ideas have merit but how does anyone know

how a voter thinks or reacts without getting out and studying their habits directly. These

ideas are ideas after the fact, we need to be able find out what is working before it is too late

preferably before the primaries.

Conclusion

This section has shown there are many randomized experiments regarding voters

thought process, psyche and ways to motivate them. The best way to motivate and get the

attention of voters is to be personal, the most personal is the canvass, but direct mail and

phones are still relevant if done right. In 2014 alone just in the primaries campaigns and

outside groups have spend at least $150 million on direct mail and yet only $70 million on

digital media.55 Direct mail, canvassing and phones engage the voter in their home proving

that the old fashioned ways still have the power to motivate.

Chapter 3: Primary Research Methodology

54 Sasha Issenberg, The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns (New York: Crown, 2013), 33.55 Tarini Parti, "An Unlikely Survivor in the Digital Age: Direct Mail," POLITICO, August 3, 2014, accessed August 3, 2014, http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/an-unlikely-survivor-in-the-digital-age-direct-mail-109673.html.

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Introduction

Wyoming is the smallest state in the union, population wise 576,412; but tenth in

square mile 97,093.56 The state’s population density is 5.9 people per square mile and with

only two media markets it makes it very hard to reach potential voters through TV and one

would think through canvassing.57 Most County seats hold a majority of the population

making canvassing easy. It is not impossible to reach people face-to-face.

Stakeholders Interest

This paper is written as mentioned before for candidates who want to run but may not

be sure they want to or the campaign manager looking for better idea’s on how to attract

voters. This is also written for a campaigns treasurer who controls the money. So they can at

least get an idea of what it will cost a campaign to mail out direct mailers, or hirer phone

vendors. In Wyoming, it is possible to knock on doors, and call neighbors with volunteers

which will save money. It is interesting to note too that for direct mail campaigns it is more

effective to hand write the envelopes, print the letter on a printer at home on plain white

paper. When knocking on doors, making calls, and for that case making phone calls people

are more receptive to the information.

Approach and Methodology

In most of Wyoming, there are only elections every two years making testing rather

difficult or if you did not want to wait you could test people’s favorability before and after

using randomized experiments, similar to Rick Perry. The idea is for this to be tested during

primaries so that the results would be known quickly and could be used in the general

election. The only negative is there are only 72 days time between the primary and the

56 Sarah Janssen, The World Almanac and Book of Facts, 2014 (New York: Infobase, 2013), 59157 Ibid.

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general in Wyoming. As long as Vote Builder has update everything by the beginning of

October you should be able to analyze your date and come up with a strategy. The

randomized experiments be done in the last three weeks before the primary when it has been

discovered that it has the most effect otherwise there is the chance for decay, the message

could be lost on voters.

Research Design

We will consider motivating Wyoming’s voting age population(VAP), 433,22158,

because same day registration is easy and only 6% of Wyoming’s population is banned from

voting because of felony charges.59 We could use registered voters because they are more

likely to show up and vote. However, if we include VAP we might see them be motivated to

come out because they were asked. As Gerber and Green had concluded before, “face-to-face

interaction makes politics come to life and helps voters to establish a personal connection

with the electoral process,”60 maybe any type of interaction will increase voter turnout. To

ensure a 99% accuracy and a point 6 percent margin of error the experiment would need a

58 Wyoming Secretary of State, "Wyoming Voter Registration and Voter Turnout Statistics ," Wyoming Secretary of State, 2014, Statewide Summary, accessed August 22, 2014, http://soswy.state.wy.us/elections/registeringtovote.aspx.59 ProCon.org, "Number of People by State Who Cannot Vote Due to a Felony Conviction - Felon Voting - ProCon.org," ProConorg Headlines, July 2012, Number of People by State Who Cannot Vote Due to a Felony Conviction, accessed August 24, 2014, http://felonvoting.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000287.60 Green and Gerber, 45.

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randomized test sample of 418,0061 citizens.62 We will assign all the treatments to Campbell,

Laramie and Natrona Counties, like Perry you do not want to risk losing influence, the States

three larges counties hold 35.49% of registered voter in Wyoming. To remove any kind of

potential bias, we will randomize the counties to choose which will receive the four

treatments. We will not test the effect of TV in Wyoming because it is so hard to control who

see’s it and who does not. Radio is hard to control, also, but you can buy radio time in one

county whose reach is only that county. With TV because there are only two media markets

if you buy in those markets they will be seen across the state via cable.

Since we are using 20 counties out of 23, divide 41800 by 20 is 2090 people per

county this will give us 1045 as the treatment group, and 1045 as your control group. You are

looking for persuadable’s with NCEC precinct data; these parameters can be found in Vote

Builder, under creating a new list, scores. To randomize the voters that you want to target

you first want to choose your county, then persuasion score, after that it run search. It will

show you everybody in the county. But you will want to limit it down to 2090 for your

particular county that is when you click edit search and choose the number of voters you

want picked and it will randomize your voters down to 2090. Remember to save your list and

export it so that you have your control group to compare with your treatment group. To get

your treatment group the ones that will receive your appeals you will want to “narrow by

sample.” The list will give you the 1045 treat.

Just as Gerber and Green, and Gosnell divided the treatments up among precincts we

will do the same but with the counties, just as you would a precinct in states with larger

61 Rounded up for an even number. 62 Creative Research Systems, "Sample Size Calculator," - Confidence Level, Confidence Interval, Sample Size, Population Size, Relevant Population, 2012, Sample Size Calculator, accessed July 31, 2014, http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm#one.

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populations. (If Wyoming were a city it would be the 32nd largest between Las Vegas and

Albuquerque, 596,424 and 555,417 respectively.)63 Since we are concentrating on 20

counties and four treatments that will allow for five counties receiving one of four

treatments. The counties are randomized using the Mac spreadsheet program Numbers; it is

the same steps with Microsoft Office. Appendix E shows how a to set up a randomized table

in Excel. There are four possible treatments to try direct mail, canvassing, and radio. The

treatments were randomized the same as the treatments.

Once you open your spread sheet with your counties on them, place your cursor in the

column next to the first county. In that empty cell type in an “=Rand()” this alerts the

program that it is going to do a formula. After the first formula is set in the cell copy this

formula into the other cells. Now every cell contains a number between 0 and 1. Highlight

your columns and go to DATA>Sort and choose to sort by the randomized number column.

Assign a number to the four treatments 1-4 each corresponding to a treatment, then follow

the above step for your four treatments as well.64 Once you have your randomization set it is

time to hit the streets with your message.

Crafting the Message

Here is a sample script from the Florida Democratic Party with a few changes to suit

Wyoming, it could also be used for the phones or face-to-face. As has been stated before, it

cannot be state enough, the more personal and unhurried the appeals the better.65 Voters are

turned off by impersonal, mechanical and rushed scripts.66 Highly trained professional phone

63 Janssen World Almanac…614.64 Gerber and Green, Get out the Vote…,147.65 Gerber, Green and Larimer, Social Pressure, 34. 66 Ibid.

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banks to seem engaged and conversational paid off “handsomely,” one national call center

saw and 3% increase while a local professional phone bank increase turnout by 5%.67.

1. Identify Yourself

“Hi, my name is , and I’m a volunteer for (candidate), who’s running for the (elected position). May I speak with you for just a moment?”

2. Talk about the Candidate

“I am helping (candidate), because, (candidate), is an honest candidate with a good record of helping the people of Wyoming. (Candidate) understands that being from Wyoming is not how much money we can make but how well we treat each other.”

3. Ask the Question

“We’re conducting a person-to-person campaign because (candidate) wants to make sure the people know where (candidate) stands on the issues. Is there a particular issue you’re concerned.

4. Offer Brochure

“Have you made up your mind about the election, (voter)?” [If yes, determine preference and conclude conversation appropriately. If no, continue.]

[If on the phone ask for an email address or a mailing address to send information.]

“I’d like to leave this brochure with you, to tell you more about (candidate).68 Please consider voting for (candidate) on Election Day. Thanks for your time.”

67 David W. Nickerson, "Quality Is Job One: Professional and Volunteer Voter Mobilization Calls," American Journal of Political Science 51, no. 2 (April 2007): 275, doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00250.x.68 Florida Democratic Party, "Suwannee Democratic Party," Suwannee Democratic Party, Sample Canvass Script , accessed August 10, 2014, http://suwanneedemocraticparty.com/Training_Manual_Canvassing.pdf.

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It maybe worth trying different types of direct mailers; you have five counties that

will only receive direct mail. You could try varying the messages you send to some, direct

mailings that mention the concerns of that particular county. Another county could receive

the civic duty mailer. Other counties could receive a mailer thanking them voting, with a note

saying, “We hope we can thank you in the future for voting and doing your civic duty.”69 See

the Appendix C for more examples of letters. These mailers should be sent out 15 days, 13

days and 8 days before the election.70

Ethics Considerations

We will not be collecting private information from people directly. We will go back

through and look if they voted that is all that the records with the County Clerk and Vote

builder show. In the primary it will show which party ballot they chose. We will never see

their ballot. If people ask where we got their information we will tell them the truth that the

Democrat National Party’s Vote Builder data base collects information from various places

they include magazine subscriptions, warranty cards, different mailing lists, DMV records

the list that make up the database is endless. We should put them at ease as much as possible

that we do not have their social security number or other sensitive material. Many of these

people maybe skeptics about the secret ballot, if that is the case it would be handy to have or

to mail information about the voting process and how the state keeps the ballots secret.71

Twenty percent of American aged voters never voted because they thought their ballot would

be marked or another 12% thought that somebody at the polling place would as them for

69 Issenberg, 308.70 Gerber and Green, The effects of…, 656.71 Issenberg, 314

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whom they were voting.72 A randomized experiment was conducted on this subject in

Connecticut, these voters came out 2% to 3% more than a control group.73

Limitations

The biggest concern and limitation will be the spill over from TV into other counties

through cable. There is not really any way to control for the spill over of TV and radio. Other

limitations will be if it comes up, conducting face-to-face canvassing on ranches. It could be

an awkward situation to pull up on a ranch house thats five miles from the nearest road and a

visitor shows up with questions. It could be possible to substitute that name for another as

described above when trying to find another person selected at random. Who knows maybe

the rancher and his family would like the company. Other limitations will be getting people

on the phone or reaching people at home when the canvassers knock on their door. If you are

knocking on doors it would always be good to at least leave literature behind.

Conclusion

There are many ways to test the success of canvassing, direct mail, phones, TV and

radio. The research of motivating voters should be fun, allowing for creative thinking, but

remember to always make sure it is randomized to exclude bias. “The exact scientist never

completely controls all the conditions affecting his experiments.”74 At the conclusion of the

randomized experiments we will see that face-to-face canvassing works the best; the more

personalized the better.

72 Ibid.73 Ibid.74 Harold F. Gosnell, Getting out the Vote; an Experiment in the Stimulation of Voting, 1st ed. (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1927), 12.

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Chapter 4: Conclusion and Recommendations

The hope of this article is that it helps Democrats in Wyoming better understand what

it takes to win an election at the local level and not feel intimidated by the process; leave the

TV ad’s to the Republicans who think they do not need to be personal to win votes.

Candidates can run an effective campaign with limited funds through canvassing, direct mail

and phones. I am not guaranteeing a win these tactics are just a piece of the puzzle that will

put you on strong footing, you still have to be a competent speaker and debater, providing

positive ideas to move the state forward. These tactics, though, will help you find voters

whom you may not have known before that will vote for you after you conduct these tactics.

Conducting your campaign in Wyoming can at first glance look like a daunting task

when you look at the amount of registered Republican voters versus the Democratic Party

voters. It can seem like a very large mountain to climb to reach a competitive level; but just

like David Brat, Dave Freudenthal and many others who faced long odds you can do it, by

investing in canvassing, direct mail and phones. If you can afford it, use radio and TV

especially toward the last three to four weeks non-stop because as was found with the Perry

campaign in 2006 there is decay after a week, they will forget you. Another advantage of

waiting until the last month you will have more money in the bank to spend on commercials.

To execute these findings you will need many volunteers. It is estimated that one

canvasser can reach about 8 doors an hour.75 While leafleting-a weaker form of canvassing-

you can reach more houses, about 45 doors an hour, it is much less effective at motivating

people to the polls, though.76 If you are running a statewide campaign leafleting might be

75 Donald P. Green, Alan S. Gerber, and David W. Nickerson, "Getting Out the Vote in Local Elections: Results from Six Door-to-Door Canvassing Experiments," The Journal of Politics 65, no. 04 (November 2003): 1094, accessed July 3, 2014, doi:10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00126.76 Green and Gerber, 52-53.

34

your only option to reach every potential voter. You might, also, hear that you should only

pay attention to precincts that are friendly to your cause but I do not believe you can do that

in Wyoming you have to go to every friendly or potentially friendly door to motivate voters

to get out to polls. In a small state, like Wyoming, voters expect to talk person-to-person with

their elected officials from time to time; this is what led to the election of seven out of the

last 10 Wyoming governors to be elected as Democrats.77

This research does not look at the role that social media plays on voter motivation.

The amount of research social medias effect on voter motivation is beginning to grow. The

work of President Obama’s 2012 campaign with social media is being written in the press

and in books, as stuff of legend. Researchers have yet to completely break down and make

sense of his campaigns work.

Randomized experiments should be done on the effects of micro-targeted social

media combined with micro-targeted canvassing, direct mail and phones to see if they can

increase voter turnout. This research would be similar to the experiment proposed in this

paper. Voters would receive no treatment or one or a combination of the treatments described

in previous chapters. Perhaps instead of phones, social media could be substituted. Or a

candidate could try to micro-target Democrats strictly through social media for the primary to

see if that increases voter-out. This would be a study where a Democratic candidate is

unopposed in the primary; this could not be done during the general when votes are at a

premium.

Perhaps these ideas are already known to work but this proposed random experiment

could be used to verify what is already known and give potential candidates the confidence to

77 Michael Barone et al., The Almanac of American Politics 2014: The Senators, the Representatives and the Governors: Their Records and Election Results, Their States and Districts (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2013), 1852.

35

present a challenge to a Republican candidate. The research as mentioned before will help to

motivate more voters to participate in the Democratic primary instead of switching parties ‘to

have something to vote for’ in the Republican primary. Bringing Democratic voters to the

polls makes the party and its candidates look stronger, giving them more confidence-wind in

their sails; not only the boost to confidence but more campaign donors that see Democratic

candidates as viable winners.

For a potential Democratic candidate to get the states full backing in the general they

must be able to show that they are willing to put in the effort to at the very least canvass and

work the phones on their behalf. This paper helps the candidate understand what it takes to

win and it is hopefully something they will study to understand what it takes to be taken as a

serious candidate.

It takes volunteers who are willing to knock on strangers doors, call up strangers,

stuff envelopes, run yard signs to people and whatever else it takes to run a successful

campaign. Some of this work takes training especially canvassers to ensure they are saying

the right thing. It is important that canvassers and volunteers at phone banks are familiar with

the campaigns main messages and themes. It has been found that the more conversational the

script the better it is received. It is important to have a script but so that canvassers can get

the gist and the general theme but once they get used to it, then they can turn to words that fit

their own informal speaking style.78

Training for door-to-door canvassers should only take 30 minutes for new volunteers.

Once you have volunteers they should be split into pairs of two to canvass their area; this

makes it safer in case something happens the other is there to call for help. The buddy system

78 Gerber and Green, 33.

36

can also help divide the work of a street one taking one side while the other works the other

side.

Once they understand their assigned area they need to become familiar with the script

and any materials you want them to hand out.You should inform the canvasser about the

purpose of the canvass and remind them not talk about the issues, leave that to the candidate.

You do not want a canvasser caught speaking on topics he is unfamiliar with and it coming

back on the candidate. You should suggest to the canvasser that the candidate could do a

much better job then they could. They can give the person a brochure or a simple card that

explains how they can get a hold of the candidate. The canvasser can share their reason why

they are volunteering for the candidate, but when asked about a specific issue a canvasser can

say, “Why don’t you get a hold of (the candidate), (hand them a contact card, which could

Facebook, Twitter, E-mail and a phone number)79.”

After canvassers meet with a voter there are specific information that needs tobe

entered into Vote Builder so that these peoples preferences can be tracked. If they are not

home you would mark that down here is a list of the canvass codes and what they mean along

with an example of voter list for canvassers, from Vote Builder. Another good thing to mark

down is whether the person contacted is willing to volunteer or put up a yard sign. Once

canvassing is done for the day there should be a meet up spot to account for everyone and

hand off canvassing scripts, so they can be input into Vote Builder.

Once all the campaigning is done it is time to wait to see what the results are of the

proposed randomized experiment. To find out the information it will have to come from each

counties clerk to register whether people voted, because of the secret ballot we will only be

79 Catherine M. Shaw, The Campaign Manager: Running & Winning Local Elections, 4th ed. (Ashland, OR: Oak Street Press, 2010), 189.

37

able to tell whether someone voted. The other indication as to whether the experiment

worked is whether the vote count went up for that primary, after adjusted for an increase in

population.

Conclusion

Add this research to a very good candidate and it will put them in a good place to

succeed with voters. The research is only as good as the person using it. This paper is not

claiming to be a panacea for the state Democratic party but it will hopefully give some

direction and inch Democrats closer to being seen as a competitive party. The efforts can put

some over the top in close races, while other campaigns will give them the confidence to

move on. At the moment the research suggested can only hope to increase voter motivation,

GOTV, in Wyoming. Governor Dave Freudenthal believes there are some instances where

Democrats can win over strong Republicans.80 There is nothing that can replace the feeling of

the face-to-face canvass. It brings the election to peoples door step and makes them feel a

part of the community.

Simply motivating voters is not all it takes for Wyoming Democratic candidates.

They still have to apply themselves and be a good candidate good with the voters, good in

debates, and portray a trustworthy image of themselves able and willing to fight for their

constituents. “Personal campaigning is important, and it enabled Democrats Ed Herschler,

Mike Sullivan, and Dave Freudenthal to win seven of the last 10 races for governor.”81

80 "Voter Motivation," e-mail to Dave Freudenthal, July 16, 2014.81 Michael Barone et al., The Almanac of American Politics 2014: The Senators, the Representatives and the Governors: Their Records and Election Results, Their States and Districts (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2013), 1852.

38

Appendix A

New Jersey High Turnout Script

In last year's election the vast majority of eligible New Jersey voters actually voted. It was

the highest election turnout in decades. In fact, over three and a half million New Jersey

citizens voted in last year's election. That is the most ever. Many hope this trend will

continue in the upcoming election. A promising sign of this is that in the primary election for

New Jersey governor, just this past June, nearly 20% more New Jersey citizens voted than in

the previous primary election for governor. Many political experts are encouraged by how

many voters they expect to vote in the upcoming elections next week. We encourage you to

join your fellow New Jersey citizens and vote this Tuesday!82

New Jersey Low Turn Out Script

In the most recent election for New Jersey governor, voter turnout was the lowest it had been

in over 30 years. Voter turnout in that election was down a full 7% from the previous

Governor election. Many fear this trend will continue in next week's election for Gover- nor.

A distressing sign of this is that in the primary election for governor, just this past June, less

than 10% of New Jersey citizens actually voted. Many political experts are discouraged by

how few voters they expect to vote in the upcoming elections next week. We encourage you

to buck the trend among your among your fellow New Jersey citizens and vote this

Tuesday!83

California High Turnout Scripts

82 Rogers and Green, 18183 Ibid.

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We would like to encourage you to vote. More and more California citizens are voting. In the

last federal election the vast majority of eligible California citizens voted. It was the highest

election turnout ever. More than 12.5 million Californians voted in that election. That was an

increase of over 3 Million from the previous statewide election. In the last primary election

fully 71% of registered California citizens voted. In fact, more California citizens voted in

the last primary election than in the previous primary election, an increase in the number of

voters by about 20%. In the upcoming primary election this Tuesday it is almost certain that

many millions of California citizens will vote, just as millions have in the other recent

elections. We encourage you to join your fellow California citizens. Please get out and vote

in the primary election this Tuesday!84

California Low Turnout Scripts

We would like to encourage you to vote. Voter turnout in California has been declining for

decades. In fact, in the last 30 years turnout in primary elections has de- clined by nearly

40%. The last two primaries for Governor have been among the lowest turnout in California

in modern times. In the most recent primary election for Governor, a meager 26% of eligible

California citizens voted. That means that more than 15 Million California citizens did not

vote in that election. In the upcoming primary election this Tuesday it is almost certain that

many millions of California citizens will again fail to vote, just as millions have failed to vote

in other recent elections. We encourage you to buck this trend among your fellow California

citizens. Please get out and vote in the primary election this Tuesday!85

84 Ibid, 18285 Ibid.

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Appendix B

Examples of Gerber and Greens

GOTV mailers86

86 Gerber and Green, 662 & 663

41

42

Appendix D

Gerber, Green and Larmier Social Pressure experiment 87

87 Gerber, Green & Larimer, 43-46

43

44

45

46

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Appendix E

Example of How to Set Up Randomization Table In Excel

County Randomized Number TREATMENT

Niobrara Cnty 0.2429 1

Converse Cnty 0.6010 2

Big Horn Cnty 0.8808 3

Washakie Cnty 0.1022 4

Fremont Cnty 0.7115 1

Sweetwater Cnty 0.6985 2

Albany Cnty 0.5749 3 NUMBER TREATMENT RANDOM

Park Cnty 0.6104 4 1 RADIO 0.3945

Johnson Cnty 0.9279 1 2 CANVASSING 0.4820

Goshen Cnty 0.8354 2 3 MAIL 0.7842

Sublette Cnty 0.9097 3 4 PHONES 0.2201

Lincoln Cnty 0.8024 4

Uinta Cnty 0.6464 1

Weston Cnty 0.9363 2

Sheridan Cnty 0.6448 3

Carbon Cnty 0.4680 4

Hot Springs Cnty 0.0978 1

Platte Cnty 0.2463 2

Crook Cnty 0.0929 3

Teton Cnty 0.4614 4

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Annotated Bibliography

Barone, Michael, Chuck McCutcheon, Sean Trende, Josh Kraushaar, and David T. Wasserman. The Almanac of American Politics 2014: The Senators, the Representatives and the Governors: Their Records and Election Results, Their States and Districts. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2013.

For anybody who is studies politics this is a must have book.

Bianco, William T., and David T. Canon. "Public Opinion." W.W. Norton & Company. 2010. Accessed July 21, 2014. http://www.wwnorton.com/college/polisci/american-politics-today2/full/ch/05/outline.aspx.

Another good website for reference reasons.

Birkland, Thomas A. An Introduction to the Policy Process: Theories, Concepts, and Models of Public Policy Making. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 2010.

My first textbook at NEC, the most referenced book I think I have used.

Creative Research Systems. "Sample Size Calculator." - Confidence Level, Confidence Interval, Sample Size, Population Size, Relevant Population. 2012. Accessed July 31, 2014. http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm#one.

A helpful website to understand sample sizes, and margins of error.

Florida Democratic Party. "Suwannee Democratic Party." Suwannee Democratic Party. Accessed August 10, 2014. http://suwanneedemocraticparty.com/Training_Manual_Canvassing.pdf.

A great training manual.

Gerber, Alan S., and Donald P. Green. "The Effects of Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment." JSTOR. September 2001. Accessed May 26, 2014. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2585837.

I cannot say enough about the work these gentlemen done over the past 15 years. They have moved campaign in a new old direction.

Gerber, Alan S., and Todd Rogers. "Descriptive Social Norms and Motivation to Vote: Everybody’s Voting and so Should You." Center for Social

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Innovation. January 2009. Accessed May 26, 2014. doi:10.1017/S0022381608090117.

The same goes for Todd Rogers part of the amazing people that are studying elections and bringing them down to a more accessible level.

Gerber, Alan S., Donald P. Green, and Christopher W. Larimer. "Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment." American Political Science Review 102, no. 01 (February 2008). Accessed May 26, 2014. doi:10.1017/S000305540808009X.

This is my favorite study of all, the gall these men had to pull something like this off.

Gerber, Alan S., James G. Gimpel, Donald P. Green, and Daron R. Shaw. "How Large and Long-lasting Are the Persuasive Effects of Televised Campaign Ads? Results from a Randomized Field Experiment." American Political Science Review 105, no. 01 (2011): 135-50. doi:10.1017/S000305541000047X.

This is an amazing study that a Governor running for reelection allowed to happen. It sheds new light on Rick Perry.

Gosnell, Harold F. "An Experiment in the Stimulation of Voting." JSTOR. November 1926. Accessed May 26, 2014. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1945435.

One of the first studies of its kind.

Gosnell, Harold F. Getting out the Vote; an Experiment in the Stimulation of Voting. 1st ed. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1927.

The founding father of this genre of Political Science study.

Green, Donald P., Alan S. Gerber, and David W. Nickerson. "Getting Out the Vote in Local Elections: Results from Six Door-to-Door Canvassing Experiments." The Journal of Politics 65, no. 04 (November 2003): 1083-096. Accessed July 3, 2014. doi:10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00126.

Nickerson is another person who continues great study in this specific genre of GOTV.

Green, Donald P., and Alan S. Gerber. Get out the Vote!: How to Increase Voter Turnout. 2nd ed. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2008.

A handy book that I will be suggesting to any one working in a campaign.

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Holbrook, A. L., and J. A. Krosnick. "Social Desirability Bias in Voter Turnout Reports: Tests Using the Item Count Technique." Public Opinion Quarterly 74, no. 1 (February 04, 2010): 37-67. doi:10.1093/poq/nfp065.

A fascinating fact that is getting to be pretty well known that people are ashamed to admit they did not vote.

Issenberg, Sasha. The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns. New York: Crown, 2013.

Another book that I am absolutely fascinated by, it inspired me to learn more about this.

Janssen, Sarah. The World Almanac and Book of Facts, 2014. New York: Infobase, 2013.

A good source of information, one that everyone should have.

Linkins, Jason. "Democrat Martha Coakley: An Object Lesson In Complacency And Detachment." The Huffington Post. January 19, 2010. Accessed July 16, 2014. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/19/democrat-martha-coakley-a_n_428164.html.

A story that shows just because you are in the majority does not mean you will win.

Marketing Metrics Made Simple. "Gross Rating Points (GRPs)." Gross Rating Points (GRPs). na. Accessed July 21, 2014. http://www.marketing-metrics-made-simple.com/gross-rating-points.html.

Reference to understand television commercial buying.

Munsey, Christopher. "Why We Vote: Why Do We Vote?" American Psychological Association. June 2008. Accessed May 26, 2014. http://www.apa.org/monitor/2008/06/vote.aspx.

A short article that focus’ on our psychology.

Nickerson, David W. "Quality Is Job One: Professional and Volunteer Voter Mobilization Calls." American Journal of Political Science 51, no. 2 (April 2007): 269-82. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00250.x.

A good article that focus’ attention on how to make phone calls better.

Parti, Tarini. "An Unlikely Survivor in the Digital Age: Direct Mail." POLITICO. August 3, 2014. Accessed August 3, 2014. http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/an-unlikely-survivor-in-the-digital-age-direct-mail-109673.html.

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An article that reinforces the fact that not everybody has learned about lo-fi GOTV.

Popkin, Samuel L. The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns. 2nd ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1994.

A book that for the time helped people understand elections, we still hear people unknowingly keeping his theory alive.

ProCon.org. "Number of People by State Who Cannot Vote Due to a Felony Conviction - Felon Voting - ProCon.org." ProConorg Headlines. July 2012. Accessed August 24, 2014. http://felonvoting.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000287.

Amazed not to see a higher percentage of felons on this list for Wyoming.

Rogers, Todd, Craig R. Fox, and Alan S. Gerber. "Rethinking Why People Vote: Voting as Dynamic Social Expression." Harvard University. 2012. Accessed July 24, 2014. http://scholar.harvard.edu/todd_rogers/publications/rethinking-why-people-vote-voting-dynamic-social-expression.

This article sheds extensive light on behavioral psychology and voter motivation. It can be confusing at times, they are talking about two subject and I do not see how they connect.

Shaw, Catherine M. The Campaign Manager: Running & Winning Local Elections. 4th ed. Ashland, OR: Oak Street Press, 2010.

Another must have for people involved in campaigns.

United States Census Bureau. "Table10. Reasons for Not Voting, by Selected Characteristics: November 2012." Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2012. November 2012. Accessed July 26, 2014. https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/p20/2012/tables.html.

A great reference for understanding our fellow American’s.

"Voter Motivation." E-mail to Dave Freudenthal. July 16, 2014.

Only in Wyoming can you have a conversation with a former Governor without jumping through hoops.

Warren, Jennifer, and Maria L. La Ganga. "Upset Puts Green Party on the Map." Los Angeles Times. April 01, 1999. Accessed July 16, 2014. http://articles.latimes.com/1999/apr/01/news/mn-23308.

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Interesting to learn about Audie Bock.

Wyoming Democratic Party. "Ham&Eggs." YouTube. March 12, 2010. Accessed August 18, 2014. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0PrA2FVUzg.

These lonely TV ads, much was debated about them and nobody saw them.

Wyoming Election Code, §§ 16-105-119 et seq. (2014).

Wyoming Secretary of State. "Registering to Vote." Wyoming Secretary of State. 2014. Accessed August 22, 2014. http://soswy.state.wy.us/elections/registeringtovote.aspx.

A well kept up website with timely information.