elvet mortgages 2020-1 plcelvet mortgages 2020-1 plc is a u.k. pool of residential loan mortgages...

17
Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC July 22, 2020 Preliminary Ratings Class Prelim. rating* Class size (%)§ Initial credit enhancement (%) Interest Step-up margin Step-up date Legal final maturity A AAA (sf) 85.00 15.05 Daily compounded SONIA + a margin Daily compounded SONIA + a margin June 2025 March 2065 B-Dfrd AA+ (sf) 5.75 9.30 Daily compounded SONIA + a margin Daily compounded SONIA + a margin June 2025 March 2065 C-Dfrd A- (sf) 5.75 3.55 Daily compounded SONIA + a margin Daily compounded SONIA + a margin June 2025 March 2065 D-Dfrd BBB (sf) 1.00 2.55 Daily compounded SONIA + a margin Daily compounded SONIA + a margin June 2025 March 2065 E-Dfrd BB+ (sf) 1.00 1.55 Daily compounded SONIA + a margin Daily compounded SONIA + a margin June 2025 March 2065 Z NR 1.50 0.05 Daily compounded SONIA + a margin Daily compounded SONIA + a margin June 2025 March 2065 VRR note NR 5.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A March 2065 Certificate NR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March 2065 Note: This presale report is based on information as of July 22, 2020. The ratings shown are preliminary. Subsequent information may result in the assignment of final ratings that differ from the preliminary ratings. Accordingly, the preliminary ratings should not be construed as evidence of final ratings. This report does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. *S&P Global Ratings' ratings address timely receipt of interest and ultimate repayment of principal for the class A notes, and the ultimate payment of interest and principal on the other rated notes. N/A--Not applicable. NR--Not rated. SONIA--Sterling Overnight Index Average. §As a percentage of 95% of the pool for the class A to Z notes. The note balance is sized off the current balance excluding the interest earned during the payment holidays for affected borrowers. VRR--Vertical risk retention. Supporting Ratings Institution/role Ratings Replacement trigger Collateral posting trigger National Westminster Bank PLC as collection account provider A/Stable/A-1 BBB N/A Citibank N.A., London Branch* as transaction account provider A+/Stable/A-1 A/A-1 N/A Elavon Financial Services DAC, U.K. Branch* as transaction account provider AA-/Stable/A-1+ A/A-1 N/A Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC July 22, 2020 PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST Arnaud Checconi London (44) 20-7176-3410 ChecconiA @spglobal.com SECONDARY CONTACT Sandra Fronteau Paris + 01.44.20.67.16 Sandra.Fronteau @spglobal.com www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 1 © S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimer on the last page. 2482694

Upload: others

Post on 28-Oct-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

Presale:

Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCJuly 22, 2020

Preliminary Ratings

ClassPrelim.rating*

Classsize

(%)§Initial credit

enhancement (%) Interest Step-up marginStep-update

Legal finalmaturity

A AAA (sf) 85.00 15.05 Daily compoundedSONIA + a margin

Daily compoundedSONIA + a margin

June 2025 March 2065

B-Dfrd AA+ (sf) 5.75 9.30 Daily compoundedSONIA + a margin

Daily compoundedSONIA + a margin

June 2025 March 2065

C-Dfrd A- (sf) 5.75 3.55 Daily compoundedSONIA + a margin

Daily compoundedSONIA + a margin

June 2025 March 2065

D-Dfrd BBB (sf) 1.00 2.55 Daily compoundedSONIA + a margin

Daily compoundedSONIA + a margin

June 2025 March 2065

E-Dfrd BB+ (sf) 1.00 1.55 Daily compoundedSONIA + a margin

Daily compoundedSONIA + a margin

June 2025 March 2065

Z NR 1.50 0.05 Daily compoundedSONIA + a margin

Daily compoundedSONIA + a margin

June 2025 March 2065

VRR note NR 5.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A March 2065

Certificate NR N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A March 2065

Note: This presale report is based on information as of July 22, 2020. The ratings shown are preliminary. Subsequent information may result inthe assignment of final ratings that differ from the preliminary ratings. Accordingly, the preliminary ratings should not be construed asevidence of final ratings. This report does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. *S&P Global Ratings' ratingsaddress timely receipt of interest and ultimate repayment of principal for the class A notes, and the ultimate payment of interest and principalon the other rated notes. N/A--Not applicable. NR--Not rated. SONIA--Sterling Overnight Index Average. §As a percentage of 95% of the poolfor the class A to Z notes. The note balance is sized off the current balance excluding the interest earned during the payment holidays foraffected borrowers. VRR--Vertical risk retention.

Supporting Ratings

Institution/role RatingsReplacementtrigger

Collateral postingtrigger

National Westminster Bank PLC as collectionaccount provider

A/Stable/A-1 BBB N/A

Citibank N.A., London Branch* as transactionaccount provider

A+/Stable/A-1 A/A-1 N/A

Elavon Financial Services DAC, U.K. Branch* astransaction account provider

AA-/Stable/A-1+ A/A-1 N/A

Presale:

Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCJuly 22, 2020

PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST

Arnaud Checconi

London

(44) 20-7176-3410

[email protected]

SECONDARY CONTACT

Sandra Fronteau

Paris

+ 01.44.20.67.16

[email protected]

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 1

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Page 2: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

Supporting Ratings (cont.)

Institution/role RatingsReplacementtrigger

Collateral postingtrigger

BNP Paribas as swap provider RCR: AA-/--/A-1+ICR:A+/Negative/A-1

A+§ N/A

*Rating derived from the rating on the parent entity. There are no counterparty constraints on the ratings on the notes in this transaction. Thereplacement language in the documentation is in line with our current counterparty criteria (see "Counterparty Risk Framework: MethodologyAnd Assumptions," published on March 8, 2019. For a full list of transaction participants, please refer to the appendix. §The swap provider canswitch from one collateral framework to another. RCR--Resolution counterparty rating.

The Credit Story

Strengths Concerns and mitigating factors

There are no interest-only, self-certified, orbuy-to-let loans in the pool.

While we consider the loans to be prime, the original loan-to-value (OLTV)ratio of the pool is relatively higher than seen in other primeowner-occupied transactions. In addition, the portfolio contains asignificant number of loans with maturities beyond 25 years, which will, allother factors mentioned below being equal, lead to slower deleveraging.

The reserve fund will be fully funded at closing.It is split into a liquidity reserve fund and ageneral reserve fund. The transaction can alsouse principal receipts to pay for interestshortfalls.

The average pool seasoning is 25 months with no loan seasoned more thanfour years. We only apply a seasoning benefit to loans outstanding for fiveor more years. Seasoned loans are associated with a lower likelihood offoreclosure.

The capital structure is fully sequentialregarding the application of principalproceeds. Credit enhancement can thereforebuild up over time for the rated notes, enablingthe capital structure to withstand performanceshocks.

This is the second transaction originated by this lender that we have rated.In addition, the availability of historical performance is limited. We haveconsidered these factors in our credit analysis.

Because Atom Bank is regulated by thePrudential Regulation Authority (PRA) andFinancial Conduct Authority (FCA), we considerits governance framework to be stronger thanother lenders with a limited track record.

The pool is exposed to Atom Bank's standard variable rate (SVR). Weaddressed the risk of change in SVR rate by applyingrating-category-specific haircuts in our cash flow analysis.

The originator is a deposit-taking institution, and therefore the transactionis exposed to deposit set-off risk. We have received historical data from thebank to take this into account in the analysis.

There is interest rate risk between the fixed rate received from themortgage loans and the compounded Sterling Overnight Index Average(SONIA) paid under the notes. However, this is hedged using a fixed-floatinginterest rate swap, which we considered in our cash flow analysis.

After the step-up date, the weighted average cost of the notes willincrease, reducing the excess spread available, which we also consideredin our cash flow analysis.

About 10% of the current balance has been granted payment holidays. Thisfigure is below that reported by the wider U.K. mortgage market and weaddressed this risk by performing a range of COVID-19 stresses e.g., a delayin the receipt of collections and arrears projections.

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 2

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 3: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

Collateral

Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking andowner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received loan-level data as of May 31,2020.

We received the audit for the pool, and the scope and results were better than what we typicallysee in the U.K. market. We have not applied any adjustment for the audit result in our analysis.

Table 1

Collateral Key Features*

Pool cut-off date May 2020

Jurisdiction U.K.

Principal outstanding of the pool (£) 780,399,198

Number of loans 4,371

Number of borrowers 4,371

Number of properties 4,371

Average loan balance (£) 178,540

Weighted-average indexed current LTV ratio (%) 66.2

Weighted-average original LTV ratio (%) 72.7

Weighted-average seasoning (months) 25

Self-certified loans (%) 0.0

Interest only (%) 0.0

Buy-to-let (%) 0.0

More than one CCJ (%) 0.0

Bankruptcy (%) 0.0

Loan purpose – purchase (%) 43.5

Jumbo valuations (%) 12.5

'AAA' RMVD (%) 61.0

Arrears >= one month (%) 0.0

*Calculations are according to S&P Global Ratings' methodology. LTV--Loan-to-value. CCJs--County court judgments. RMVD--Repossessionmarket value declines.

Originator

As a starting point for the rating analysis of RMBS transactions, we typically seek historicalperformance data (defaults, delinquencies, prepayment, and recovery/loss severity, amongothers) spanning a minimum of three years, ideally over a period of economic stress thatdemonstrates performance consistent with our expectations of similar assets in the relevantasset class. Historical performance data for Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 is limited given the fact thatAtom Bank PLC, as originator, started lending in December 2016. We have therefore followedalternate procedures and conducted several tests to mitigate this fact. We combined these testswith our credit view of the assets originated by Atom Bank in order to form an opinion on how

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 3

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 4: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

these mortgages will perform in relation to other prime U.K. RMBS transactions (see "How Much IsEnough? Information Quality Standards For The EMEA RMBS And ABS Rating Process," publishedon Jan. 8, 2019). Based on the results of our analysis, we have not applied a ratings cap in thistransaction.

Atom Bank is a regulated online bank with no physical branches, based in Durham, U.K., andestablished in April 2014. In December 2016, it launched its residential mortgage platform. Sincethen, the growth rate of its mortgage book has been significant (reaching about £1.7 billion as ofFebruary 2020). All loans are originated through brokers, and interest-only loans are not allowed.

The management team has, on average, over 15 years of experience in the U.K. mortgage market.

We visited Atom Bank in August 2019 and had an update conference call in March 2020, and webelieve that its underwriting, origination, and risk management policies and procedures are in linewith those of other U.K. prime lenders.

Atom Bank will service the portfolio but will delegate late-stage arrears. However, Atom Bank willdecide whether to repossess properties.

We have considered Atom Bank's ability to service the portfolio under our operational risk criteria,and we are satisfied that it is capable of performing its functions in the transaction (see "GlobalFramework For Assessing Operational Risk In Structured Finance Transactions," published on Oct.9, 2014). There is no cap on the ratings on the notes from an operational risk point of view.

Asset description

The portfolio has a weighted-average current loan-to-value (WA CLTV) ratio of 66.2% and aweighted-average original LTV (WA OLTV) of 72.7%. We consider borrowers with minimal equity intheir property to be less likely able to refinance and more likely to default on their obligations thanborrowers with lower-current-indexed LTV ratio loans. At the same time, loans withhigh-current-indexed LTV ratios are likely to incur greater loss severities if the borrower defaults.

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 4

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 5: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

Chart 1

Chart 2

The assets are primarily concentrated in London and the South East (32.1% in total), but no

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 5

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 6: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

regions breach our concentration limits. Only 12.5% of the loans are classified as jumbo loansunder our criteria.

For loans originated with a remortgage purpose (56.4%), based on the additional informationprovided, we have assumed that 55.9% of these loans were for debt consolidation and 44.1% werefor equity release and not refinancing for a more favorable rate. In addition, the provisional poolcontains only 5.4% of self-employed borrowers.

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 6

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 7: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

Representation and warranties

The seller provides representations and warranties in the mortgage sale agreement. In our view,we consider the whole mechanism to be in line with those that are standard for a U.K. RMBStransaction. If there is a breach of the representations and warranties, the seller can remedy thebreach by repurchasing the loan.

Further advance and product switch

The seller will repurchase the loan in case of a request of further advance or product switch madeby the borrower.

Credit Analysis And Assumptions

WAFF and WALS

We have applied our global residential loans criteria to the provisional pool in order to derive theweighted-average foreclosure frequency (WAFF) and the weighted-average loss severity (WALS) ateach rating level.

The WAFF and the WALS assumptions increase at each rating level because notes assigned ahigher rating should be able to withstand a higher level of mortgage defaults and loss severity. Webase our credit analysis on the loans, the properties, and the associated borrowers'characteristics.

Table 2

Portfolio WAFF And WALS

Rating level WAFF (%) WALS (%)Credit coverage

(%)Base foreclosure frequency component for an archetypal

U.K. mortgage loan pool (%)

AAA 23.00 42.57 9.79 12.00

AA 15.53 36.05 5.60 8.10

A 11.69 25.31 2.96 6.10

BBB 8.05 19.43 1.56 4.20

BB 4.22 15.66 0.66 2.20

B 3.35 12.48 0.42 1.75

WAFF--Weighted-average foreclosure frequency. WALS--Weighted-average loss severity.

Macroeconomic and sector outlook

As per our latest economic outlook (see related research), The U.K. housing market is increasinglyaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our credit assumptions reflect this outlook.

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 7

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 8: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

Table 3

U.K. Housing Market Statistics

2017 2018 2019 2020f 2021f 2022f

Nominal house prices, % change y/y 4.6 2.4 0.0 (3.0) 0.0 3.5

Real GDP, % change 1.8 1.4 1.4 (6.5) 6.0 3.2

CPI inflation (%) 2.7 2.5 1.8 0.7 1.3 2.2

Unemployment rate (%) 4.4 4.1 3.8 6.1 6.0 4.4

Sources: S&P Global Ratings, Eurostat, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Department for Communities and LocalGovernment, Office for National Statistics. Y/Y--Year on year. CPI--Consumer price index. f--Forecast.

Transaction Summary

S&P Global Ratings has assigned preliminary credit ratings to Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC's classA, B-Dfrd, C-Dfrd, D-Dfrd, and E-Dfrd notes. At closing, Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 will also issueunrated class Z notes, VRR notes, and certificates.

At closing, the issuer will purchase the beneficial interest in an initial portfolio of U.K. residentialmortgages from the sellers, using the proceeds from the issuance of the rated and unrated notes.

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 8

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 9: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

The issuer is an English special-purpose entity, which we assume to be bankruptcy remote for ourcredit analysis. We expect to assign credit ratings on the closing date subject to a satisfactoryreview of the transaction documents and legal opinions.

The notes will pay interest quarterly on the interest payment dates in March, June, September,and December, beginning in September 2020. The rated notes pay interest equal to compoundedSterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) plus a class-specific margin with a further step-up inmargin following the optional call date in June 2025. All of the notes reach legal final maturity inMarch 2065.

We derived the stressed interest rate curves for the compounded SONIA by subtracting a spread of0.15% from our stressed one-month British pound sterling (GBP) London Interbank Offered Rate(LIBOR) curves. There has been a close relationship between backward-looking compoundedSONIA and forward-looking LIBOR determined for the same period. However, since SONIA does notinclude the various risk premiums reflected in LIBOR, the former has generally been lower. The

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 9

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 10: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

spread adjustment applied to our GBP LIBOR curves reflects the lower SONIA rates historicallyobserved.

Interest rate risk

The transaction is exposed to basis risk as the mortgages reference to a fixed rate and a standardvariable rate (SVR) while the notes reference compounded SONIA.

The issuer benefits from a fixed-floating swap to mismatch the exposure to the fixed rate. Theswap's notional follows a fixed schedule. The issuer pays a fixed rate and receives SONIA.

To account for the fact that SVR may change at any time, we apply a haircut in our cash flowanalysis according to our guidance for applying global RMBS criteria. Specifically, we apply thelower-end haircut based on historical information received from the seller and the current seller'sSVR rate that is generally lower than what we typically see in the market.

Deferral of interest

Under the transaction documents, interest payments on all classes of rated notes (excluding theclass A notes) can be deferred. Consequently, any deferral of interest on the class B-Dfrd, C-Dfrd,D-Dfrd, and E-Dfrd notes would not constitute an event of default.

Our preliminary ratings address the timely payment of interest and the ultimate payment ofprincipal on the class A notes and the ultimate payment of interest (including interest on deferredinterest) and principal on the other rated notes. The issuer will grant a first fixed-equitable chargeand, as applicable, assignation in security in favor of the trustee over and of its interests in theloans, the mortgages, and their related security.

Reserve fund

At closing, the proceeds from the issuance of the notes will contribute to funding the reserve fundto 1.5% of the closing pool balance. At closing, the reserve will be split into a general reserve and aliquidity reserve. The liquidity reserve fund will be fully funded while the general reserve fund willbe equal to zero. The liquidity reserve fund can amortize, and the required amount is 1.50% of theoutstanding pool balance. After the redemption of the class A and B notes, the liquidity reservefund will equal zero. The general reserve is equal to the overall reserve fund minus the liquidityreserve.

The issuer can only use the liquidity reserve to pay senior fees and interest on the class A andB-Dfrd notes, and only after all of the general reserve has been utilized. The general reserve fundis topped up from available revenue below the class Z notes' principal deficiency ledger (PDL) inthe interest priority of payments.

As soon as the pool's current outstanding balance is lower than 10% of its closing balance, thetarget level of the reserve fund might change. However, the change is subject to a rating agencyconfirmation, and therefore we did not apply any change in our analysis to the target level of thereserve fund.

Principal to pay interest

In high-delinquency scenarios, there may be liquidity stresses, whereby the issuer would not have

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 10

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 11: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

sufficient revenue receipts to pay interest due on senior fees or the notes. To mitigate this risk theissuer can use any existing principal receipts. The issuer can use principal on the senior fees andon the most-senior class with no conditions, while for the mezzanine and junior notes, principalcan be used only if the PDL amounts on each class of notes is lower than 10% of the principaloutstanding balance of such notes. The use of principal to pay interest would result in a PDL andmay reduce the credit enhancement available to the notes. Principal will only be used once thegeneral reserve and liquidity reserve have been exhausted.

Principal deficiency ledgers

The PDL comprises six subledgers, one for each of the rated class of notes in addition to the classZ notes (i.e., each of the collateralized classes of notes).

Amounts are recorded on the PDL if the portfolio suffers any losses or if the transaction usesprincipal as available revenue receipts.

PDL amounts are first recorded in the class Z notes' PDL up to the class Z notes' collateralizedoutstanding amount. The amounts are then debited sequentially upward.

Revenue priority of payments

Table 4

Priority Of Payments

Revenue priority of payments Principal priority of payments

Senior fees. To pay shortfalls in senior fees, servicer fees, and the class A notes' interest,with no conditions, and the class B-Dfrd to E-Dfrd notes subject to PDLconditions. Once the class A notes have fully redeemed, the issuer can useprincipal to pay interest shortfalls for the most-senior outstanding tranche withno conditions.

Swap payment. Class A notes' principal.

Class A notes' interest. Class B-Dfrd notes' principal.

Class A notes' PDL. Class C-Dfrd notes' principal.

Class B-Dfrd notes' interest. Class D-Dfrd notes' principal.

Liquidity reserve fund replenishment up tothe reserve fund required liquidityamount.

Class E-Dfrd notes' principal.

Class B-Dfrd notes' PDL. Class Z notes' principal.

Class C-Dfrd notes' interest. Excess amounts to the revenue waterfall.

Class C-Dfrd notes' PDL.

Class D-Dfrd notes' interest.

Class D-Dfrd notes' PDL.

Class E-Dfrd notes' interest.

Class E-Dfrd notes' PDL.

Class Z notes' PDL.

Reserve fund replenishment up to thereserve fund required amount.

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 11

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 12: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

Table 4

Priority Of Payments (cont.)

Revenue priority of payments Principal priority of payments

After the step-up date, until the class Anotes redeem, amount paid into theprincipal priority of payments.

Excess spread to residual certificates.

PDL--Principal deficiency ledger.

Cash Flow Assumptions And Analysis

We stress the transaction's cash flows to test the credit and liquidity support that the assets,subordinated tranches, and cash reserve provide.

We apply these stresses to the cash flows at all relevant rating levels. In our stresses on the classA notes, the notes must pay full and timely principal and interest. Our preliminary ratings on theclass B-Dfrd to E-Dfrd notes address the payment of ultimate principal and interest.

Spread compression

The asset yield on the provisional pool can decrease if higher-paying assets default or prepay. Wehave accounted for this in our cash flow analysis by assuming at a 'AAA' level that theweighted-average margin on the portfolio drops by 0.20%.

Commingling risk

Borrowers pay into collection accounts held with National Westminster Bank PLC, in the seller'sname. The transaction documents have established a declaration of trust over any amounts in thecollection account. The transaction documents specify that the servicer, on behalf of the issuerand the security trustee, must take remedial actions, including replacing National WestminsterBank as collection account provider with a suitably rated financial institution, if our long-termissuer credit rating on the collection bank account provider falls below 'BBB'. However, thetransaction documents also allow flexibility to appoint Atom Bank as collection account bankprovider following the replacement of National Westminster Bank. Because Atom Bank is notrated by S&P Global Ratings, we assessed commingling risk as a loss in our cash flow analysis.

There are no counterparty constraints on the preliminary ratings on the notes in this transaction.

Fees

Contractually, the issuer is obliged to pay periodic fees to various parties providing services to thetransaction such as servicers, trustees, and cash managers, among others. We have accounted forthese in our analysis. In particular, and in line with our residential loans criteria, we have applied astressed servicing fee of 0.25% (the higher of 1.5x actual fees and 0.25% per annum) to accountfor the potential increase in costs to attract a replacement servicer.

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 12

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 13: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

Setoff risk

There are no employee loans in the securitized pool. However, as the seller is a deposit-takinginstitution, there is setoff risk in the transaction. We have received historical data from Atom Bankregarding the borrowers' deposits. In our view, the current exposure is negligible, and the risk ofthe deposit exposure increasing is, given the current level, mitigated also by the deposit protectionscheme in the U.K. We have therefore not stressed a setoff amount in our analysis.

Default timing and recoveries

We use the WAFF and WALS derived under our credit analysis (see table 2) as inputs in our cashflow analysis.

At each rating level, the WAFF specifies the mortgage loans' total balance we assume to defaultover the transaction's life. We apply defaults to the outstanding balance of the assets as of theclosing date. We simulate defaults following two paths (i.e., one front-loaded and oneback-loaded) over a six-year period. During the recessionary period within each scenario, we apply25% of the expected WAFF annually for three years.

Table 5

Default Timings For Front-Loaded And Back-Loaded Default Curves

Year after closingFront-loaded defaults (% of WAFF per

annum)Back-loaded defaults (% of WAFF per

annum)

1 25.0 5.0

2 25.0 10.0

3 25.0 10.0

4 10.0 25.0

5 10.0 25.0

6 5.0 25.0

WAFF--Weighted-average foreclosure frequency.

We assume recoveries (1-weighted-average loss severities) on defaulted assets to be received 18months after default for owner-occupied properties and 12 months after default for buy-to-letproperties. We estimate foreclosure costs at 3% of the repossession value plus £5,000.

We base our loss severities on loan principal and do not give any credit to the recovery of interestaccrued on the loan during the foreclosure process.

Delinquencies

To simulate the effect of delinquencies on liquidity, we model a proportion of scheduledcollections equal to one-third of the WAFF (in addition to assumed foreclosures reflected in theWAFF) to be delayed. We apply this in each of the first 18 months of the recession, and we assumea full recovery of these delinquencies to occur 36 months after they arise.

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 13

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 14: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

Prepayments

To assess the impact on excess spread and the absolute level of defaults in a transaction, wemodel both high and low prepayment scenarios at all rating levels (see table below).

Table 6

Prepayment Assumptions

High Low

Pre-recession 30.0 4.0

During recession 3.0 3.0

Post-recession 30.0 4.0

Interest rates

We modeled two interest rate scenarios in our analysis: up and down. In an up scenario, theinterest rates increase from the input starting interest rate, while in a down scenario, the ratesdecrease. The curves vary by stress scenario (see "Methodology To Derive Stressed Interest RatesIn Structured Finance," published on Oct. 18, 2019).

Summary

In combination, the default timings, recession timings, interest rates, and prepayment ratesdescribed above give rise to eight different scenarios at each rating level (see table below).

Table 7

RMBS Stress Scenarios

Total number of scenarios Prepayment rate Interest rate Default timing

8 High and low Up and down Front-loaded and back-loaded

Surveillance and scenario analysis

We will maintain surveillance on the transaction until the notes mature or are otherwise retired. Todo this, we will analyze regular servicer reports detailing the performance of the underlyingcollateral, monitor supporting ratings, and make regular contact with the servicer to ensure that itmaintains minimum servicing standards and that any material changes in the servicer'soperations are communicated and assessed.

Various factors could lead us to lower our ratings on the notes, such as increasing foreclosurerates in the underlying pool and changes in the pool composition. We have analyzed the effect ofincreased defaults by testing the sensitivity of the ratings to two different levels of movements.

Under our scenario analysis, the preliminary ratings on the notes in both scenarios would notsuffer a rating transition outside of that considered under our credit stability criteria.

We also performed some COVID-19 pandemic-related stresses, such as:

- Adding arrears projections,

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 14

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 15: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

- A delay in principal and interest receipts, and

- A longer recovery period.

S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about the evolution of thecoronavirus pandemic. The consensus among health experts is that the pandemic may now be at,or near, its peak in some regions but will remain a threat until a vaccine or effective treatment iswidely available, which may not occur until the second half of 2021. We are using this assumptionin assessing the economic and credit implications associated with the pandemic (see our researchhere: www.spglobal.com/ratings). As the situation evolves, we will update our assumptions andestimates accordingly.

Related Criteria

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Methodology To Derive Stressed Interest Rates InStructured Finance, Oct. 18, 2019

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Counterparty Risk Framework: Methodology AndAssumptions, March 8, 2019

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Incorporating Sovereign Risk In Rating StructuredFinance Securities: Methodology And Assumptions, Jan. 30, 2019

- Criteria | Structured Finance | RMBS: Global Methodology And Assumptions: Assessing Pools OfResidential Loans, Jan. 25, 2019

- Legal Criteria: Structured Finance: Asset Isolation And Special-Purpose Entity Methodology,March 29, 2017

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Structured Finance Temporary Interest ShortfallMethodology, Dec. 15, 2015

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Methodology: Criteria For Global Structured FinanceTransactions Subject To A Change In Payment Priorities Or Sale Of Collateral Upon ANonmonetary EOD, March 2, 2015

- Criteria - Structured Finance - General: Global Framework For Cash Flow Analysis OfStructured Finance Securities, Oct. 9, 2014

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Global Framework For Assessing Operational Risk InStructured Finance Transactions, Oct. 9, 2014

- General Criteria: Methodology Applied To Bank Branch-Supported Transactions, Oct. 14, 2013

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Global Derivative Agreement Criteria, June 24, 2013

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Criteria Methodology Applied To Fees, Expenses, AndIndemnifications, July 12, 2012

- General Criteria: Global Investment Criteria For Temporary Investments In TransactionAccounts, May 31, 2012

- General Criteria: Methodology: Credit Stability Criteria, May 3, 2010

- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Methodology For Servicer Risk Assessment, May 28,2009

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 15

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 16: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

Related Research

- Government Job Support Will Stem European Housing Market Price Falls, May 15, 2020

- Economic Research: Europe Braces For A Deeper Recession In 2020, April 20, 2020

- U.K. RMBS Index Report Q4 2019, Feb. 26, 2020

- SONIA As an Alternative To LIBOR In U.K. Structured Finance Transactions, Feb. 6, 2019

- How Much Is Enough? Information Quality Standards For The EMEA RMBS And ABS RatingProcess, Jan. 8, 2019

- 2017 EMEA RMBS Scenario And Sensitivity Analysis, July 6, 2017

- Global Structured Finance Scenario And Sensitivity Analysis 2016: The Effects Of The Top FiveMacroeconomic Factors, Dec. 16, 2016

- European Structured Finance Scenario And Sensitivity Analysis 2016: The Effects Of The TopFive Macroeconomic Factors, Dec. 16, 2016

www.standardandpoors.com July 22, 2020 16

© S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimeron the last page.

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC

Page 17: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLCElvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC is a U.K. pool of residential loan mortgages (first-ranking and owner-occupied in England, Wales, and Scotland). We have received

S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors.S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites,www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributedthrough other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available atwww.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees.

S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respectiveactivities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has establishedpolicies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process.

Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed andnot statements of fact. S&P's opinions, analyses and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase,hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation toupdate the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment andexperience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not actas a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable,S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. Rating-relatedpublications may be published for a variety of reasons that are not necessarily dependent on action by rating committees, including, but not limitedto, the publication of a periodic update on a credit rating and related analyses.

To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certainregulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw or suspend such acknowledgment at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Partiesdisclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damagealleged to have been suffered on account thereof.

Copyright © 2020 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved.

No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any partthereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrievalsystem, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not beused for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees oragents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are notresponsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or forthe security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESSOR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE ORUSE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT'S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THECONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct,indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, withoutlimitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advisedof the possibility of such damages.

Standard & Poor’s | Research | July 22, 2020 17

2482694

Presale: Elvet Mortgages 2020-1 PLC