emarketer webinar: key digital trends for 2016
TRANSCRIPT
© 2015 eMarketer Inc.
Digital Trends 2016:
What Will Happen–and Won’t Happen–in the Year Ahead
December 10, 2015
Ezra Palmer
Content Chief, eMarketer
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The sixth edition of our annual predictions for
key trends in the digital marketplace
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Five Things That WILL Happen
in 2016
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#1: The voice of
the consumer
will be heard
We’re talking about consumers’
actual voices.
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Search and
native social
pages will
drive voice
activity growth
Volume from
search will rise
more than 15%,
and the volume
from social will
nearly double
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Are inbound voice calls really the wave of the
future?
Cathy Boyle, senior analyst, mobile
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#2: Mobile
payments will
take off
In 2016, the divide between digital
and physical commerce will be
bridged further.
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Growth of US Proximity Mobile Payment Users
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
37.5 million
users
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Growth of Mobile Payment Transaction Value
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$27.05
billion
$210.45
billion
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How common will mobile payments become in
2016?
Bryan Yeager, senior analyst, emerging
platforms and mobile payments
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#3: Consumers
will be free
with their data
Millennials and centennials
especially.
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People say
they value
privacy, but
they are quick
to give up
personal data
in return for
value
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#4: Facebook
will become
nearly entirely
mobile
More than three-quarters of
Q3 2015 ad revenue was mobile.
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% of WW Facebook Users Who Are Mobile-Only
2014 2015
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34%
47%
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Is mobile-only Facebooking a US phenomenon?
Debra Aho Williamson, principal analyst, social
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#5: Mobile
commerce will
move down the
funnel
Mcommerce will make up 25%
of US ecommerce sales in 2016.
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How the big players are goosing mobile
commerce:
Screen Size
– Bigger smartphone screens mean bigger mcommerce sales.
Mobile Payments
– Android Pay and Apple Pay simplify in-app purchases.
Buy Buttons
– Buy buttons could make social commerce more of a reality.
Mobile Search
– Consumers often start mobile product searches on Amazon’s app.
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Are mobile payments a big driver for mobile
commerce?
Bryan Yeager, senior analyst,
emerging platforms and mobile payments
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#6: Marketers
will join the
conversation
(The conversation
in messaging apps, that is.)
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WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger are on the
way to having 1 billion MAUs worldwide
Facebook is the
big player in the
US
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How can marketers have a voice in one-to-one
communications?
Cathy Boyle, senior analyst, mobile
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… We interrupt this
trend report to talk
about ad blocking …
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Ad blocking
won’t get
solved in 2016
The problems of ad blocking and
ad avoidance will persist.
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The good
news is that
ad blocking is
less common
in the US than
elsewhere
For desktops,
anyway …
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Will native advertising soar because of ad
blocking?
Lauren Fisher, senior analyst, ad tech
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Four More Things
That WON’T Happen in 2016
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#1: Like ad
blocking,
viewability
won’t get
solved, either
Disagreements will continue.
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There’s just
not a lot of
agreement
about
viewability
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How important is it to solve viewability?
Lauren Fisher, senior analyst, ad tech
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#2: Facebook
won’t kill
YouTube
Different platforms, different
solutions for marketers.
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Is Facebook cannibalizing YouTube?
Debra Aho Williamson, principal analyst, social
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#3: Young
people won’t
abandon
Facebook in
droves
Sorry, President Obama.
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More than 60% of
recent high school
graduates check
Facebook at least
once a day
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How many young people will use Facebook in the
future?
Debra Aho Williamson, principal analyst, social
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#4: Digital ad
spending won’t
surpass TV ad
spending
Not in 2016, anyway.
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TV will remain
the largest
channel for
US ad
spending in
2016
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Will digital and TV work together? How?
Lauren Fisher, senior analyst, ad tech
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Marketo Overview
Anastasia Pavlova
Sr. Director, Marketing, Marketo
Marketo Proprietary and Confidential | © Marketo, Inc. 12/10/2015
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Ezra Palmer
Digital Trends 2016:
What Will Happen–and Won’t
Happen–in the Year Ahead
Social Advertising Effectiveness Scorecard: Industry Execs Grade
the Leading Platforms
Mobile Messaging Apps: Global User Forecast, Leaderboard and
Outlook on Monetization
Cross-Device Targeting: First-Party Data, TV and Privacy Are Big
Factors for 2016
US Mobile Payments Forecast: Driven by User Growth and Broader
Acceptance, Transaction Value Will Triple in 2016