emarketer webinar: online holiday shopping forecast and trends

©2012 eMarketer Inc.

SEPTEMBER 20, 2012

Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends

Jeffrey Grau

Principal Analyst

Sponsored by:


Questions we will answer today:

What is the outlook for online holiday sales?

How is the holiday season being extended?

What new trends will fuel sales growth?

Daily deals

Smartphone and tablet shoppers

Photo-sharing sites

Email and search

Key takeaways


Online holiday sales will post strong growth for the fourth consecutive year

Online sales for November and December will reach $54.5 billion in 2012, up 16.8% over 2011

Twitter – #eMwebinar


What is your outlook for the online holiday shopping season?

Jay HendersonStrategy Program Director, Cross Channel MarketingIBM Enterprise Marketing Management

Scot WingoCEO, Chairman of the Board and Co-FounderChannelAdvisor

Ryan GibsonVice President of MarketingThe Rimm-Kaufman Group

Eric BestFounder and CEOMercent

“The overall growth we’re expecting should be in line with 2011 or

potentially slightly better.”

Source: eMarketer interview, July 31, 2012

“We’re thinking 20% growth for the

holidays.”

Source: eMarketer interview, August 10, 2012

“I feel comfortable saying growth will be

in the neighborhood of 20%.”


“We’re not expecting to see a soft yearby any means.”



Retail ecommerce sales are off to a strong start in 2012

The US Department of Commerce and comScore both estimate online sales grew 15% in H1 2012



Online holiday sales will be in line with strong ecommerce sales for all of 2012

Retail ecommerce sales are forecast to reach $224 billion in 2012, up 15.4% over 2011

In 2012, $54.5 billion in online holiday sales will account for 24.3% of total ecommerce sales


Questions we will answer today




Daily deals


Photo sharing sites

Email and search

Key takeaways


Consumers will shop for holiday gifts both earlier and later in the season

In 2011, online spending was strong in early November and late December



Holiday creep will continue this year

($ millions) 2010 2011 % change

Nov 1–20 $8,470 $9,670 14%

Source: comScore Inc.

FINDING 1: Some 31% of retailers will start their holiday promotions earlier this year, with 42% of them starting in October (Source: Hay Group)

FINDING 2: By Black Friday 2011 (Nov 25), 54% of online shoppers had completed more than one-quarter of their holiday purchases, compared to 49% of shoppers in 2010 (Source: Compete)

OBSERVATION: Black Friday deals have morphed into Black November deals

TAKEAWAY: Retailers compete for wallet share and try to get shoppers to buy over multiple paychecks

“Halloween is the new Thanksgiving.” —Scot Wingo, CEO of ChannelAdvisor


Thanksgiving Day now kicks off the busy holiday shopping weekend


Thanksgiving Day $407 $479 18%


“Retailers must begin promoting deals a day early and be prepared to keep them fresh on Black Friday to hold shoppers’ interest.” —John Squire, director of digital marketing and analytics at IBM

OBSERVATION 1: Thanksgiving Day now kicks off the busy Thanksgiving weekend for shopping, eclipsing Black Friday, which itself only became a big online shopping day in recent years

OBSERVATION 2: People are bringing their smartphones and tablets with them to their Thanksgiving dinner at friends’ or relatives’ homes and using their mobile devices to shop before and after the Thanksgiving meal.


Consumers will continue holiday shopping right through Christmas

FINDING 1: On Xmas Day 2011, online sales grew 16.4% and sales from mobile devices increased 173% YOY (Source: IBM)

FINDING 2: Last year, 39% of online consumers shopped after Christmas and 32% finished holiday shopping post-Christmas. (Source: Google & Ipsos/OTX)

FINDING 3: Before the start of the 2011 holiday, over 60% of

consumers were already looking forward to post-holiday deals. 70% of post-holiday shoppers made purchases for themselves but also looked for gifts for close family members (Source: Yahoo!)


Dec 19–Jan 1 $4,437 $5,330 20%


“Retailers’ focus on express shipping at discount prices or even for free, as well as an increase in in-store pick up messaging, contributed to strong sales leading up to Xmas.”

—Chad White, director of research at Responsys


Consumers also shopped online earlier and later in the day on Cyber Monday

2010 2011

Before 9am 3% 12%

5pm–9pm 24% 34%






Daily deals


Photo sharing sites

Email and search

Key takeaways


Nearly 1 in 4 online consumers purchased a gift via a daily deal site during the 2011 holiday season



This year, holiday shoppers will take advantage of retailers’ own daily deals


Daily deals have become an important draw for creating seasonal demand

Scot WingoCEO, Chairman and Co-FounderChannelAdvisor

Eric BestFounder and CEOMercent

“Creating branded experiences for the shopper is more important

than ever for retailers.”

Source: eMarketer interview, July 31, 2012

“Daily deals are another interesting promotional dial that we didn’t see last holiday season that so far this

year consumers and retailers are really warming up to.”



Consumers and retailers both benefit from daily deals

Daily deals tend to be used to sell off inventory at big discounts of 30% to 50%

Retailer use daily deals to catch the attention of shoppers early in the holiday season

Daily deals give retailers license to contact shoppers frequently

Big discounts can generate a lot of word-of-mouth on social networks, especially when retailers offer fan-exclusives via Facebook and Twitter






Daily deals


Photo sharing sites

Email and search

Key takeaways


Smartphone and table shopping are engines of ecommerce growth

In December 2011, mobile shoppers contributed 14.6% of traffic and 11.0% of sales on retail sites

“By December 2012, mobile sales will double and exceed 20% of site sales.”—Jay Henderson, strategy program director of cross channel marketing at IBM



Tablets are the preferred portable device for making purchases

Meanwhile, 77.6% of respondents to Baynote’s study indicated they used their mobile phone to research and comparison shop


Research on a smartphone often leads to a purchase in-store or online via a PC


Smartphones are used to satisfy immediate shopping needs


Usage of comparison-shopping apps is exploding

ShopSavvy

RedLaser (owned by eBay)


Tablet shoppers outspend smartphone and traditional online shoppers

During Holiday 2011, tablet users spent 20% more per order, on average, than desktop online shoppers


Tablets are stretching the online shopping day beyond business hours

Yonatan FeldmanVP of Mobile & Global EngineeringGilt Groupe

Matt JonesGeneral Manager of MobileHome Depot

“We see a spike in traffic between 8pm and 10pm. People are at home, they’re lying on the couch or in bed. The traffic

is less hurried …”

Source: eMarketer interview, May 1, 2012

“We’re seeing 80% spikes in traffic on weekends over a typical

weekday, starting around 9am or 10am, and going all the way through

11pm.”

Source: eMarketer interview, April 24, 2012







Daily deals


Photo-sharing sites

Email and search

Key takeaways


Photo-sharing sites will be a new source of holiday traffic for certain retailers

Pinterest has emerged as a serious contender to Facebook in driving visitors to apparel sites

“Pinterest users are very heavy online spenders.”—Andrew Lipsman, vice president of industry analysis at comScore


Wayfair derives multiple benefits from Pinterest referrals

1,700-plus followers on Pinterest

Shoppers referred to Wayfair’s website by Pinterest were more than 10% more likely to make a purchase than visitors who arrived from other social networks, including Facebook and Twitter

Pinterest referrals spent 10% more than the average shopper on the site

Source: Mashable, April 2012.


Victoria’s Secret has run several Pinterest contests, including “Victoria’s Secret Summer”


Free People, a vintage apparel retailer, has more than 300,000 followers on Instagram, where it runs a contest called “What’s In Your FP Closet?”






Daily deals


Photo-sharing sites

Email and search

Key takeaways


Email is the preferred vehicle for online consumers to receive holiday promotions



Shopping cart abandonment rates climb during the holiday season

FINDING: After Labor Day, shopping cart abandonment rates rise

PROOF: In 2011, 72% of all potential ecommerce purchases were abandoned; the rate jumped to 85% in the weeks running up to Cyber Monday and peaked at 89.2% on November 23

PREDICTION: The shopping cart abandonment rate will reach 90% this year, on November 21, the day before Thanksgiving

RECOMMENDATION: Sending a sequence of gentle email reminders to abandoners that there are still items in their online shopping cart can result in a recovery rate of between 10% and 30%

Source: SeeWhy,

“As in previous years, many customers [during the holiday season] anticipated promotional offers and deferred purchases, causing the abandonment rate to shoot up.”

—Charles Nicholls, founder and chief strategy officer at SeeWhy


Holiday shoppers will see more sophisticated triggered emails like this one from Crutchfield appealing to a wide range of preferences


Google Shopping will debut this holiday season

Product Listing Ads


Google Shopping will allow consumers to shop by many attributes

Filtering options






Daily deals


Photo-sharing sites

Email and search

Key takeaways


Online holiday sales will reach $54.5 billion in 2012, up 16.8% over 2011

Ecommerce sales for all of 2012 are on target to reach $224.2 billion, up 15.4% year over year

Consumers will do more shopping earlier and later in the holiday season to take advantage of retailers’ heavy promotions

Mobile shopping and online deal hunting will be major contributors to holiday ecommerce success

Photo-sharing sites will drive traffic to fashion retail sites

Key Takeaways


Drive Conversions and Revenue

Built for commerce: Conversions,transactions and revenue

Highly personal, relevant emailand cross-channel marketing

Sophisticated made simple

Kevin Skurski | Director of Marketing Communications

Holiday Resource Center

A collection of tools and research,including white papers, guides and blog posts.

Top 12 Marketing Tips for the Holidays

2012 Holiday Planning Month-by-MonthGuide

2012 Holiday Email Marketing Lookbook

bronto.com/holiday

Customer Lifecycle

Uncovering Missed Revenue Opportunities – Exploring the Customer Lifecycle

Examine each phase of the customer lifecycle

Outline consumer behavioralong the way

Identify revenue-generating programs

bronto.com/resources

Tips & Tricks

Expertise from the field

White papers

Customer success stories

Blog posts

bronto.com/resources


Q&A Session

Online Holiday Shopping Forecast

and Trends

Sponsored by:

Brontobronto.com/resources

You will receive an email tomorrow with a link to

view the deck and webinar recording.

Jeffrey Grau

Online Holiday Shopping Forecast and Trends

Adapting to a Showrooming World: How Retailers Are Earning Customer Loyalty

Worldwide B2C Ecommerce Forecast: Midyear 2012 Update

How Retailers Are Leveraging ‘Big Data’ to Personalize Ecommerce

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