emarketer webinar: us election 2016—spotlight on digital advertising, data and targeting

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US Election 2016: Spotlight on Digital

Advertising, Data and Targeting

Bryan Yeager

Senior Analyst

May 5, 2016


Decision 2016:

The Snapchat Election?


Digital’s Evolving Role in Recent US Elections

2000 2004 2008 2016?

Image Credit: Daniel Llamas Soto + Felisberto Piazza/Noun Project Source: Jim Rutenberg/NYTimes, April 2016

2012


Snapchat Discover, Live Stories bring election

coverage to a young and connected audience


Election coverage, Snapchat style

CNN Daily Mail Live Story

Source: Author’s Snapchat Account, April 2016


Snapchat launches its own geotargeted political

show, ‘Good Luck America’

Produced and narrated

by Peter Hamby, head

of news at Snapchat

Former CNN political

reporter

Timed with major

moments during race,

so not always available

Image Credits: Tech Insider, Snapchat


Campaigns experiment with sponsored Snapchat

geofilters during key events

Image Credits: Mashable, Snapchat/WSJ, Kasich Campaign/Time.com


The First Billion-Dollar

Digital Ad Election


More than half of US political ad agency pros

anticipate ad budget increases for 2016 election

Most expect

increases up to

20%

One-third expect

budgets to stay

the same


Digital’s share rising, but broadcast and cable TV

still dominate political ad spending

Broadcast TVCable TV

Digital

Other

2008

Broadcast TVCable TV

Digital

Other

2012

Broadcast TV

Cable TV

Digital

Other

2016 estimate

Source: Nomura Securities, April 2016


Similar estimates from Borrell Associates point

to first billion-dollar digital election in 2016

Borrell estimates

that around 6 in 10

digital ad dollars

will come from

national contests


Digital’s

approximately

10% share of

political ad

spending lags

behind its share

of the broader ad

market, which

will reach 35.8%

in 2016


But digital’s

use is

projected to

skyrocket over

the course of

the next few

election cycles


Recent data suggests digital’s place in political

advertising might be higher than initially expected

30%

31%

10%

15%

20%

26%

41%

29%

Political

Nonpolitical

Budget Allocation: Nonpolitical vs. Political Advertising Spending

TV Print Digital/Mobile Other

Source: Advertiser Perceptions, Feb. 2016


Political ad

pros say local

TV still garners

the greatest

return on

investment,

but social

media is

gaining ground


Matching Channels, Tactics with

Voter Behaviors, Preferences


TV remains a top election source for US voters

78% of US adults used TV to learn about the 2016

presidential election, with local TV news as a top

source. 65% used digital sources. (Pew Research Center, Jan. 2016)

59% of US internet users cited TV ads as the most

impactful type of political ad. Just 13% found digital

ads to be the most impactful. (Rubicon Project, Jan. 2016)

61% of registered voters in the US have seen

candidates’ ads on TV vs. 40% on digital. (IAB, Nov. 2015)


TV news is a particularly effective political

platform, according to US internet users

It may explain

one candidate’s

success at

dominating the

news cycle this

election season


Generational gaps evident when it comes to

media sources voters use for political info

6%

6%

10%

14%

17%

32%

Social Media

Nat'l Newspapers

Online-only Sources

Local TV News

Cable News

National TV News

Most trusted source for politicalcampaign news

Source: Rubicon Project, Jan. 2016

35%

18%

12%15%

19%21%

5%

10%

25%

1%5%

43%

Social media Newswebsites/apps

Cable TV news

Most helpful source for learning about the 2016 presidential election

18-29 30-49 50-64 65+

Source: Pew Research Center’s Journalism Project, Jan. 2016


Social, video ads almost as effective as TV

among adult millennial internet users

38%35%

30%

25%

18% 19%19%

9% 10%

TV ad Social media ad Online video ad

Political ad formats effective at influencing voting behavior

Millennials

Gen X

Baby Boomers

Source: Kelly Scott Madison/ORC International, Jan. 2016


Millennials

have higher

interest in

political ads

compared to

older

generations


Effectiveness of medium depends on the goal

Candidate Branding

1. TV (54%)

2. Digital/Mobile (21%)

3. Other (10%)

Changing Opinions

1. TV (45%)


3. Other (10%)

Voter Mobilization


2. TV (23%)

3. Phone Canvassing (20%)

Negative Attacks

1. TV (57%)


3. Other (11%)



Campaigns need to adapt as time spent with

media shifts toward digital, mobile channels

32.1%

2011

47.7%

2016

Source: eMarketer, Oct. 2015

26.0%

Nondigital

Digital

Mobile Nonvoice

Time Spent

with Media by

US Adults


TV remains effective for reach, but key voter

constituencies are shifting to mobile

“TV ad budgets are not going away, and they’re

certainly a formidable way to reach a mass

audience. [But] if you look at some of the specific

demographic groups such as millennials and

Hispanics ... our data points suggest that those are

the largest consumers of media through

smartphones or connected media channels.”

—Jerry Hug, CEO, SITO Mobile


As millennials

make up a

growing

proportion of

eligible voters,

expect the

political media

mix to more

closely match

their preferences


The open web: a source for news and an on-ramp

for campaign donations

Image Credit: Nando Ramirez/Noun Project

National news sites like CNN.com (43%), online

news sites like Yahoo News (34%) and national

newspaper sites like WSJ.com (25%) were the top

types of websites used by US registered voters to

find candidate news and information.

Only 18% of registered voters visited a candidate’s

own website to get news and info.

49% of registered voters used a mobile device to

access news and info about candidates.

Source: IAB/Vision Critical, Nov. 2015


Digital video: extending reach and meeting

TV-oriented goals across digital channels

Likely voters that have watched

political videos digitally

4 in 10

1 in 10


59%Share of US likely voters

ages 18 to 34 who use

digital video to learn about

political candidates and

issues.

Source: Google/Ipsos Connect, Jan. 2016Image Credit: Laurence Willmott/Noun Project


Presidential campaigns have the largest share of

mobile video impressions

Mobile video makes

up 25% of presidential

campaign ad

impressions

Just 15% of ad

impressions for

congressional

campaigns, 4% for

local campaigns were

mobile video


Tailoring messages to mobile video viewers

“Candidates that embrace mobile have a much

better chance of making a personal connection

with a voter. The reason you need a 30-second ad

on television when you’re running it during the

6pm news is because you don’t know who that

viewer is and what message is going to resonate

with them. On a mobile device, you can tailor a

10-second message based on one

specific issue that you know that voter cares

about.”

—Mike Balabanov, Advertising Account Director, AOL


Is 2016 Really the

Snapchat Election?


Social media claimed as preferred method for

political engagement, but actions lag behind

7%

14%

24%

25%

Phone Call

Direct Mail

Email

Social Media

Primary way US internet users prefer to engage with political candidates


33%

Likely voters that viewed a post or

video about a candidate shared

by a friend

14%

Likely voters that posted a post or

video themselves about a

candidate to social media


Snapchat doesn’t have the biggest digital video

audience, but its demographics are coveted

16.6% of US internet

users are also

Snapchat users,

compared with 79.8%

that use YouTube and

63.9% that use

Facebook to watch

digital videos.

Source: Cowen and Company, March 2016

Close to two-thirds of

18- to 24-year-olds

are Snapchat users,

as are 31% of 25- to

34-year-olds. Just 8%

of those 35 and older

are using Snapchat.

Source: comScore Mobile Metrix, Dec. 2015


Facebook led the

pack as a

platform for

learning about

the presidential

election at the

start of 2016,

while just 2% of

US adults used

Snapchat to do so


But there is some evidence of success with

Snapchat political and election content

44%

of 13- to 24-year-old US Snapchat users

that viewed Live Stories and Discover

features did so on a daily basis

vs.

23%

of all US Snapchat users surveyed

3 in 10

US Snapchat users have

used the platform to get

news about the 2016

presidential election

Source: Variety Magazine/Defy Media, Feb. 2016


But Snapchat’s CEO is hesitant to make such a

bold claim about his company’s election role

“It’s definitely not the Snapchat election. The thing

that excited us is we really saw an opportunity to not only

help politicians reach constituents, but really to help people

learn about politics in a way that goes beyond just

knowledge, like just reading about it or hearing from a

singular newscaster.”

—Evan Spiegel, CEO, Snapchat

Source: “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” Sept. 2015


Political content tailored for digital natives

GIFs as visual sound bites Native content on BuzzFeed


The earned media advantage of Donald Trump

Paid Earned

Bush $82M $214M

Sanders $28M $321M

Clinton $28M $746M

Trump $10M $1.9B

Source: NYTimes/mediaQuant/SMG Delta, Feb. 2016

Presidential ad spending as of February 2016


Twitter provides a megaphone directly to an

engaged audience (and media)

$139.8M in earned

media on Twitter,

April 2015-March 2016

Source: mediaQuant/TheStreet, April 2016

$2,700 in paid

Twitter ads,

Jan. 2016-Feb. 2016

Source: FEC/TheStreet, April 2016

$83,000 in paid

Facebook ads,

Jan. 2016-Feb. 2016

Source: FEC/TheStreet, April 2016

7.9M

Twitter followers, up 3M

in the past 6 months


Facebook, Google to be the big beneficiaries of

election-related digital ad spending

Most essential media brands for

placing digital/mobile political ads:

1. Facebook

2. Google Display Ads

3. Google Search

4. CBS

5. ABC



Data will play an increasingly important role as

campaigns try to persuade undecided voters

“Data gets political agencies really excited because

when you look at the electorate, 40% are going to

vote one way, 40% will vote the other way and it’s

the 20% in the middle that’s

persuadable. Data targeting has become the

holy grail for political advertisers because they are

able to find voters that they know are going to be

persuadable based on different characteristics.”

—Mike Balabanov, Advertising Account Director, AOL


Facebook’s rich targeting capabilities are a boon

to political advertisers

Campaigns can target

by age, gender,

Congressional district

and interests

Upload email lists

from website and

mobile app efforts,

match likely voters

and target them with

Facebook ads


Shift from primaries to general election will

reset digital approach

“What we’ve seen in the primary—and it’s not a

surprise—is that get-out-the-vote efforts are sort of

preaching to the choir and hoping they stand up.

That’s really the name of the game right now, and

it will be until we have a better sense of who the

top two candidates are going to be. At that point, I

imagine the approach resets itself and it’s a

dash to sway the people in the middle.”

—Bryan Melmed, Vice President of Insights Services,

Exponential


Could an unprecedented election cycle affect

digital spending among presidential candidates?

$624

$894

2016

2008

Total Spending by Presidential Campaigns Through March 31 (millions, adjusted for inflation)

Source: Federal Election Commission/Campaign Finance Institute/Huffington Post, April 2016

Super PACs pick up slack

from main campaigns on

ad spending (GOP Super

PACs have spent more

than candidates thus far)

Major GOP donors sitting

on the sidelines

Does Trump’s earned

media windfall continue if

he is the nominee?


Key takeaways

Several pundits have dubbed 2016 the Snapchat Election.

Though Snapchat will play a role, Facebook and Google will

be the big beneficiaries of campaigns’ digital spending.

Digital’s share of election ad spending is projected to

exceed $1 billion, but TV remains the top choice among

political campaigns to achieve a variety of goals.

With the real-time nature of Twitter, a 24/7 TV news cycle

and big personalities as catalysts, earned media is playing

an outsized role in the 2016 presidential race.

Other factors like Super PACs alter the spending picture.

First Party Data: email database

Third Party Data: national voter files

Hyperlocal targeting: conventions, boroughs, devices

Omnichannel targeting: your audience on every channel, every device

$-

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

1st party voter file modeling

IP targeting to voter database

*Retargeting & voter file model

are tied for top performanceCP

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Time


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Bryan Yeager

US Election 2016: Spotlight on

Digital Advertising, Data and

Targeting

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