embracing societal transformation 20111005 v1

© 2011 IBM Corporation

IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM UPward)

Learning to Embrace Societal Transformations:From Gathering Storm to Regional Upward Spirals

Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, [email protected] Champion and Director IBM UPward(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development)IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA

Used with permission eVolo.us

© 2011 IBM CorporationIBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM UPward)

Learning to embrace societal transformations“In democratic capitalism, both the government and the economy are built upon systems of broad-based self determination. And the private foundation is a creation of the latter, the economic system. From John Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford, and Ewing Kauffman to Bill Gates and Eli Broad, virtually every foundation donor has been an entrepreneur—someone who first created wealth by starting a for-profit venture, and who then “reconstituted” part of that wealth in a potent new form by starting a foundation. …foundations need to focus on creating the future, not fixing the past.” – Carl J. Schramm, Kauffman Foundation in MANAGING FOUNDATIONS TOWARD THE GOAL OF EXPANDING HUMAN WELFARE

Since the last ice age ended, roughly 10,000 to 20,000 years ago, a number of societal transformations have occurred in regions around the world.

Societal transformations change the nature of human interactions with each other and their environment, from hunter-gatherers, to farmers, to factory-workers, to knowledge-workers.

Societal transformations impact the nature of competition, and incumbent leaders often find it costly and risky to re-tool and embrace change.

Learning to embrace societal transformations = learning to embrace new forms of competition (knowing that the duration of “the game” is shrinking)


The Gathering Storm Report: Societal Transformation“The committee concluded that the United States appears to be on a course that will lead to declining, not growing, standard of living for our children and grandchildren.” – Gathering Storm“Gentlemen, we have run out of money. It is time to start thinking.” – Rutherford

“The Gathering Storm report is focused upon the ability of Americans to compete for employment in a job market that increasingly knows no geographic boundaries.”

“The United States takes deserved pride in the vitality of its economy, which forms the foundation of our high quality of life, our national security, and out hope that our children and grandchildren will inherit every greater opportunities.”

“The possession of quality jobs is the foundation of a high quality life for the nations citizenry.”

“While only four percent of the nations workforce is composed of scientists and engineers, this group disproportionately creates jobs for the other 96 percent.”

“Further, the pace of creation of new knowledge appears by almost all measures to be accelerating.”

“While this progress by other nations is to be both encouraged and welcomed, so too is the notion that Americans wish to continue to be among those people who do prosper.”

“The Gathering Storm committee contends that it is strongly in America’s interest for all nations to prosper. Aside from its humanistic merit this outcome should produce a safer world for everyone…”


Recommendations: Toward Regional Upward Spirals“It would be impossible not to recognize the great difficulty of carrying out Gathering Storm recommendations, such as doubling the research budget, in today’s fiscal environment… However… One seemingly relevant analogy is that a non-solution to make an over-weight aircraft flight-worthy is to remove an engine.” – Gathering Storm Revisited

“The fate of empires depends on how they educate their children.” – Aristotle“The best way to predict the future is to inspire & enable the next generation to build it better.” –IBM UPward

I. Improve inputs to universities– Fix “broken” K-12 system (invest in K-12)

III. Improve outputs from universities– Fix “broken” University system (invest in Higher Education)

II. Improve transitions from university to first job– Fix “broken” Employment system (increase R&D funding)

IV. Improve speed of regional innovation– Fix “broken” Governance system (align visa, tax, etc. regulations)


What does “societal transformation” actually change?

The 4 I’s– Information

– Individuals

– Institutions

– Infrastructure

Geographic Unit of Analysis

– Region/City &Lead University

– McKinsey:Urban Worlds

– IBM: How SmartIs Your City?

Societal Infrastructure(Technologies & Environment)

Individuals(Skills)

Institutions(Jobs)

Cultural Information(Quality-of-Life Measures)

(challenges, language, laws, measures, models, routines)


Cultural Information & Quality-of-Life Measures:California Human Development Report 2011

http://ww

w.m

easureofamerica.org/docs/A

PortraitO

fCA

.pdf


Installation DeploymentIrruption

The Industrial Revolution

Age of Steam and Railways

Age of Steel, Electricityand Heavy EngineeringAge of Oil, Automobilesand Mass ProductionAge of Information and Telecommunications

Frenzy Synergy Maturity

Panic1797

Depression

1893

Crash

1929

Credit Crisis 2008

Coming period ofInstitutional Adjustment and Production Capital

1

2

3

4

5

Panic1847

1771

1829

1875

1908

1971

1873

1920

1974

1829

Crash

•Formation of Mfg. industry

•Repeal of Corn Laws opening trade

•Standards on gauge, time•Catalog sales companies •Economies of scale

•Urban development•Support for interventionism

•Build-out of Interstate highways

•IMF, World Bank, BIS

Source: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages; (Edward Elar Publishers, 2003).

~250 years of infrastructure transformations


~100 years of US job transformations

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis


~30 years of skill transformations: depth & breadth

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

Levy, F, & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton University Press.

Expert Thinking

Complex Communication

Routine Manual

Non-routine Manual

Routine Cognitive


T-shaped professionals: depth & breadthReady for Life-Long-LearningReady for T-eamworkReady to Help Build a Smarter Planet

SSME+D = Service Science, Management, Engineering + Design

Many disciplines(understanding & communications)

Many systems(understanding & communications)

Deep in one discipline

(ana

lytic thinking & problem

solving)

Deep in one system

(analytic thinking & problem

solving)

Many multi-cultural-team service projects completed(resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards)

BREADTH

DE

PT

H


Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & BreadthSystems that focus on flows of things Systems that governSystems that support people’s activities

transportation & supply chain water &

waste

food &products

energy & electricity

building & construction

healthcare& family

retail &hospitality banking

& finance

ICT &cloud

education &work

citysecure

statescale

nationlaws

social sciences

behavioral sciences

management sciences

political sciences

learning sciences

cognitive sciences

system sciences

information sciences

organization sciences

decision sciences

run professions

transform professions

innovate professions

e.g., econ & law

e.g., marketing

e.g., operations

e.g., public policy

e.g., game theory and strategy

e.g., psychology

e.g., industrial eng.

e.g., computer sci

e.g., knowledge mgmt

e.g., stats & design

e.g., knowledge worker

e.g., consultant

e.g., entrepreneur

stake

holders Customer

Provider

Authority

Competitors

resources

People

Technology

Information

Organizations

change History

(Data Analytics)

Future(Roadmap)

value

Run

Transform(Copy)

Innovate(Invent)

Starting Point 1: Observe the Stakeholders (As-Is)

Starting Point 2: Observe their Resource Access (As-Is)

Change Potential: Think It! (Has-Been & Might-Become & To-Be)

Value Realization: Do It Together! (New As-Is)

disciplines

systems


Proposed societal transformation: Who’s first?NPR: Out of Economic Chaos, A New Order May Be Rising

HAWLEY: The grand total of U.S. automotive fatalities from 1975 to the present, about one and a half million people. Now, the grand total of U.S. fatalities from 1775 to the present in every military conflict we've had is 1.3 million. So in other words, in the last roughly 35 years we've killed more people with cars than we have in more than 300 years of warfare.

I think if you step back and look at cars from a sort of 35,000 foot level, you've got to wonder why we're doing this to ourselves. And there's a tremendous amount of industry and employment built up around it. But suppose it all changed.

One way it could change is if human weren't allowed to drive cars anymore. Or let me put it differently. If cars were much more appealing because they drove themselves and did it safely.

And this isn't just Jetson stuff. There's a brilliant computer scientist, artificial intelligence researcher at Stanford, named Sebastian Thrun. He's invented a car that drives itself. You can hop in the car and you never touch the wheel or the pedals. It navigates through all the traffic snarls. It won't run over little old ladies in Pasadena. It won't even run over a squirrel.

If you could eliminate the seven million accidents per year, the 2.9 million injuries, the 40,000 fatalities, that would be enormous boon. But if you think about what would happen in the short term. Let's suppose in the next five or ten years this idea comes to fruition.

Think about all the disruption that could cause. You might not have to own a car. Well, that might be good. You'd have a garage that you could use to start up a company instead of storing a couple of rusting hulks of metal in it. You'd never have to call Tom and Ray Magliozzi again, because you wouldn't have to fix your car.

There wouldn't be a parking problem, because you'd push a little button on your iPhone, a smart car would zip up, pick you up, drop you off where you need to go. That means no more valets, no more taxi drivers, no more meter maids, no more traffic cops. You'd never hear a car horn, because why would a robot car honk at another robot car. Makes no sense.

But that's an example of the sort of change that in the short term can cause immense of amounts of anxiety and upheaval.

http://www.npr.org/2011/09/24/140766796/out-of-economic-chaos-a-new-order-may-be-rising


A Framework for Global Civil SocietyPerhaps universities should be first to try societal transformations?

Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200 years." His insight is true today – except yesterday's 200 years has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators, incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil society.

– John Sexton, President NYU


What are the benefits of top-ranked universities?% WW GDP and % WW Top-500-Universities

Japan

ChinaGermany

France

United KingdomItaly

Russia SpainBrazilCanada

IndiaMexico AustraliaSouth Korea

NetherlandsTurkey

Sweden

y = 0,7489x + 0,3534R² = 0,719

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

% g

loba

l G

DP

% top 500 universities

Strong Correlation (2009 Data): National GDP and University Rankingshttp://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html


What are the benefits of more education? Of higher skills?

…But it can be costly, American student loan debt is over $900M


Universities Worldwide Accelerating Regional Development

“When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”


Our 21st Century World: System of SystemsRegional Nested, Networked Holistic Product-Service Systemshttp://www.service-science.info/archives/1056 Holistic Product-Service Systems provide

access to “Whole Service” to people inside, including Transportation, Water, Food, Energy, Communications, Buildings, Retail, Finance, Health, Education, Governance, etc.

Examples: Nations, States, Cities, Universities, Hotels, Hospitals, Homes

Definition: An holistic product-service system is a type of complex value-cocreation system that can provide “whole service” to its primary population of people, independent of all external systems, for an extended period of time, balancing independence with interdependence (outsourcing limits, re-cycle to sustain, etc.)

University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems (U-BEE’s): Universities are usually in the “top five” job creators of regions, when they have associated incubators & science-technology parks, super-computing data centers, hospitals, cultural & conference hotels, K-12 schools, etc.

Nation

State/Province

City/Region

UniversityCollege

K-12

Cultural &ConferenceHotels

HospitalMedical

Research

Worker(professional)

Family(household)

For-profits

Non-profits

U-BEEJob Creators

~25-50% of start-ups are newIT-enabled service offerings

SaaSPaaSIaaS

http://www.thesrii.org


Pegasus Global Holdings $200M Smart City Living Lab

7 September 2011

The Center for Innovation, Testing and Evaluation will cover 20 square miles in New Mexico, and will resemble a mid-sized American city, including urban canyons, suburban neighborhoods, rural communities and distant localities.

Potentially be able to house up to 35,000 people and will operate as if people are actually living there

The facility will allow technology companies, university and urban planners to test the "positive and negative impacts emerging technologies - Smart Grid, intelligent traffic systems, cyber security and more

estimated cost $200 million– Smart City Living Lab ~$6K per potential-citizen to build/launch

– Economy Hotel Projects ~$30K per guest-room to build/launch

– Highest Priced Luxury Resort Hotels ~$600K per guest-room to build/launch


The Gathering Storm, Revisited for All Regions“There is nothing as practical as a good theory.” – Kurt Lewin“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells

Regions are entities that must learn to learn better– Regions = Nations, States, Cities, etc…

– Learning = Improving the global competitiveness performance of a region

Regional entities = “Holistic product-service systems”– that provision access to high-quality “whole service” to the people in them

– that also provision access to high quality products & services globally

– to contribute to a higher quality-of-life, both inside and outside their region

– service science studies product-service systems & customer-provider interactions (value-cocreation mechanisms, including the servitization of products and productization of service by the algorithmic revolution and other means)

Regional innovation = “Entities learning”– “Run-Transform-Innovate Learning Framework”

– “T-Shaped Professionals & the Systems-Disciplines Framework”

– University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems (U-BEEs)


A major societal transformation is underway…“If we’re number one in technology, why do I have to call India for tech support?” – Jay Leno“Ideas are the new currency in a global knowledge economy.” – Ben Wildavsky, Senior Fellow, Kauffman Foundation“No country can lead in today’s world unless it leads in science.” – Speaker Nancy Pelosi“A history of modernization is in essence a history of scientific and technological progress… I firmly believe science is the ultimate revolution.” – Wen Jiabao, Premier, People’s Republic of China

Driven by “The Death of Distance” & “Algorithmic Revolution”- Cairncross, Economist (1997)

- Zysman, CACM (2006)

Manifesting in new forms of “Global Competition”– Friedman, The World is Flat (2005)

Characterized as a “Gathering Storm” by Americans– US National Academies (2005, 2007, 2011)


Societal Transformations Change The Rules of Competition“The purpose of business is to create and keep a customer.” – Peter Drucker

From Value-Creation Worldview: Compete Against Others - Zero-Sum Mindset– During different time intervals some regions begin to pull ahead, and some fall behind…

eventually the people in lagging regions immigrate to leading regions, some lagging regions “collapse” and are absorbed into other regions or remain dysfunctional… not only is human capital squandered in lagging and collapsed regions, but human suffering grows over time in these regions…. disenfranchised populations create a security threat for all….

To Value-CoCreation Worldview: Compete With/For Others - Non-Zero-Sum Mindset– The gains of innovators are “taxed” based on geography of their customers as well as home

location of provider (providers cannot succeed without customers)… as innovators seek to expand their markets into other regions successfully the “governments” of both provider and customer regions see tax revenues increase… accelerating both “transform” and “innovate” capabilities… accelerating entities learning and regional innovation.

– Innovator regions benefit the most, but the incentive is not to pull so far ahead that other regions lag too far behind or collapse; the incentive is to also create wealthier more capable customers over time, and regions compete in cycles of progress that move everyone forward…

Simple Examples of Value-CoCreation Model: – Toyota locating manufacturing plants in the US

– “The Huppenthal Method” Style of Learning Competition• Students compete, but “winning” is defined as everyone completing the work as fast as

possible, to beat their individual and collective previous best time• Leaders help those lagging behind catch-up, peer-mentoring and win-win NZS mindset• Demonstrated accelerated learning times and elevated student engagement levels


In Sum…“College is more valuable to the future economy than petroleum.” – Greg Easterbrook, Author“You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they’ve tried everything else.” – Churchill

Gathering Storm reflects a major societal transformation underway– Driven by “The Death of Distance” and “Algorithmic Revolution”

– Manifesting in new, challenging forms of “Global Competition”

The nature of regional competition is being transformed (accelerating)…– From Value-Creation Worldview: “Compete Against” - Zero-Sum Mindset

– To Value-CoCreation Worldview: “Compete With/For” - Non-Zero-Sum Mindset

The transformation depends on increasing “trust” … a hard thing to do– However, increasing interconnectedness suggests there is no other viable alternative

– Cascade failures in globally interconnected economies are a real threat to stability

Increased trust can only be earned by performance against a shared innovation roadmap, or a shared vision for a better future for all…

– For example, climate change and sustainable environment

– For example, increased global security and financial stability

It is time to get our priorities straight and focus on what matters most…


Embracing Societal Transformations & Regional Upward Spirals

Who will be first? second? third? – Which university?

– Which city?

– Which state?

– Which nation?

Risk & rewards– Going first is one measure of leadership/innovation

– Rewards can be high for successful innovators

– However, going first has costs, risks, etc.

– When consensus fails, breaking away to form new groups may be necessary

Getting smarter about societal transformations– What ‘game’ are we really playing? What are we trying to optimize?

– What is the smartest way to lower costs, reduce risks, and allow regions that invest in change to realize the benefits of innovations in the shortest period of time?

– Gathering Storm: How should “democratic capitalism” operate in the 21st century?

– Nearly 30% of top-ranked universities (cities within cities) is one of America’s greatest competitive assets

– From regional universities to U-BEEs to successful entrepreneurs to new foundations


What’s the best way to predict the future?

The best way to predict the future is….– To create it. (Moliere)

– To invent it. (Kay)

– To inspire and enable each generation to build it better (IBM Upward)


Please Visit IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA

Conferences– Sept 27th, 2011

• Future Technologies,Skills & Jobs

– July 2012• ISSS & SRII San Jose• HSSE San Francisco

More Information– Blog

• www.service-science.info– Twitter

• @JimSpohrer– Presentations

• www.slideshare.net/spohrer– Email

• [email protected]


Agenda: Sept 27th IBM Almaden EventRegional Upward Spirals: Co-Evolution of Tech, Skills, Jobs, Quality-of-Life

1. Historical Patterns: Technology & Regional Economic Cycles (8:30)– Fleming (IBM), Laboissiere (McKinsey), Qayoumi (SJSU), LeBlanc (SNHU), King

(IBM)– 10:00 Morning Break & Refreshments

2. Future Technologies & Societal Infrastructure (10:45am)– (Including Urban Innovation, Sustainability, and Resilience)– Zysman (Berkeley), O’Connor (Autodesk), Jeffery (IFTF), Narayan (IBM), Asakawa

(IBM)– 12:30 Lunch

3. Future Skills & Jobs (1:30pm)– Wladalsky-Berger(IBM),Chui (McKinsey),Gorbis(IFTF),Richey(Boeing),Gardner

(MSU), Dunagan(IBM),– 3:00 Afternoon Break & Refreshments

4. Future Career Paths & Quality-of-Life Measures (3:30)– Milbergs(WEDC), Gorham(IEEE), Kambhatla(IBM), Klein-Collins(CAEL),

Shah(IBM), Griffith(SCU)– 5:00 Next steps & Closing


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1. ResearchResearch awards focus on grand challenge problems and big bets

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