emerging asia pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts ......emerging asia–pacific telecoms...

Emerging Asia–Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2019–2024

Emerging Asia–Pacific

telecoms market: trends and

forecasts 2019–2024

Polytimos Kontos, Casey Cragg, Qingyi Liang and Stephen

Wilson

February 2020, based on data up to 2Q 2019


This report provides:

▪ a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs

for emerging Asia–Pacific, as a whole and for 6 key

countries

▪ an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast

assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and

for key countries

▪ an overview of operator strategies and country-specific

topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by

means of a cross-country comparison

▪ a summary of results, key implications and

recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market

experts from our topic-led research programmes and our

consulting division, as well as external interviews. In addition to

our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique

and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous

methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard

definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

2

About this report

1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.2 IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

REPORT COVERAGE

Geographical Key performance indicators

Regions modelled

▪ Emerging Asia–

Pacific (EMAP)

Countries modelled

individually

▪ China

▪ Indonesia

▪ Malaysia

▪ Philippines

▪ Thailand

▪ Vietnam

Connections Revenue

Mobile

▪ Handset, mobile

broadband,1 IoT2

▪ Prepaid, contract

▪ 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

▪ Smartphone,

non-smartphone

Fixed

▪ Voice, broadband,

IPTV, dial-up

▪ Narrowband voice,

VoBB

▪ DSL, FTTP/B, cable,

BFWA, 5G, other

Mobile

▪ Service,3 retail


▪ Handset, mobile

broadband,1 IoT2

▪ Handset voice,

messaging, data

Fixed

▪ Service,3 retail

▪ Voice, broadband,

IPTV, dial-up,

specialist business

services

▪ DSL, FTTP/B, cable,

BFWA, other

ARPU

Voice traffic Mobile

▪ SIMs, handset


▪ Handset voice, data

Fixed and mobile

▪ Outgoing minutes,

MoUOur forecasts are refined throughout the year. This report presents the results

at the time of publication and will continue to give useful background

information about key drivers. However, we recommend that you always use

the Analysys Mason DataHub to view the latest data associated with this report.

http://www.analysysmason.com/datahub


8. Executive summary and recommendations

9. Both mobile and fixed retail revenue will increase in emerging Asia–Pacific

over the forecast period

10. Pakistan, Cambodia and Indonesia are the only countries in which the

telecoms retail revenue will grow by a CAGR of more than 7% in the period

to 2024

11. Geographical coverage: the adoption of 4G/5G and NGA will grow

significantly in most countries

12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets

13. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

14. Market context: higher GDP per capita tends to lead to higher fixed

broadband household penetration

15. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries

16. Key drivers at a glance for each emerging Asia–Pacific market

17. Market overview: both mobile and fixed service revenue will continue to

grow during the forecast period

18. Mobile: monthly data consumption per connection will more than triple

during 2019–2024; the contract share of mobile connections will increase

marginally

19. Mobile: penetration in the region will hit 100% in 2020 and reach 108% by

2024

20. Mobile: growing competition and strong regulatory pressure in several

countries will lead to a decrease in ARPU in the region

21. Mobile: operators are investing in 5G technology; the increasing number of

mobile subscribers will lead to growth in the mobile service revenue by

2024

22. Fixed: the NGA share of fixed broadband connections will grow over time

due to investments in FTTP/B networks

23. Fixed: broadband penetration will increase in all countries in EMAP, but the

increase in China will be marginal

24. Fixed: fixed broadband ASPU will decline as operators lower their prices to

increase fixed broadband adoption

25. Fixed: the fixed market in EMAP is increasingly competitive and operators

will focus on investing in NGA

26. Specialist business services: the demand for data connectivity and cloud

services will continue to drive other business services revenue growth

27. IoT: the automotive, smart buildings and smart cities sectors will have the

greatest potential for revenue growth

28. Pay TV: IPTV and DTH will drive pay-TV retail revenue growth

29. Individual country forecasts

30. China: total service revenue will continue to grow, but the market is

reaching saturation point

31. China: growth in the adoption of 5G will accelerate from 2020

32. China: the Chinese telecoms market is the most-advanced telecoms

market in EMAP

33. China: forecast changes

34. Indonesia: the number of mobile connections will be the same as that in

FY2017 by the end of the forecast period

35. Indonesia: the average mobile data traffic in Indonesia is expected to more

than triple over the forecast period

36. Indonesia: the mobile market is still recovering from the implementation of

the prepaid SIM card registration regulation

3

Contents [1]


37. Indonesia: forecast changes

38. Malaysia: mobile revenue growth will be marginal, but the number of FBB

connections will rise due to network investment and increased competition

39. Malaysia: the average mobile data usage will increase at a CAGR of 21%

and will be the second-highest in the region

40. Malaysia: the regulator’s MSAP policy had a strong affect on fixed

broadband revenue and led to the incumbent losing some market share

41. Malaysia: forecast changes

42. Philippines: the forthcoming entry of a third MNO and a challenging

regulatory environment will lead to a decline in mobile revenue

43. Philippines: the number of 4G connections will start to fall in 2023 due to

the take-up of 5G technology

44. Philippines: competition will intensify in both the fixed and mobile markets

as Converge ICT and Dito roll out their networks

45. Philippines: forecast changes

46. Thailand: total service revenue will remain flat; the increase in fixed

broadband revenue will be offset by the falling mobile revenue

47. Thailand: FTTP/B has been the most-widespread technology in the fixed

broadband market since 2018

48. Thailand: the intense FTTP roll-out and the ongoing increase in 4G

coverage will drive competition in both the fixed and mobile markets

49. Thailand: forecast changes

50. Vietnam: fixed revenue will increase thanks to strong FTTP/B take-up rates

51. Vietnam: the mobile data traffic per connection is the lowest in EMAP; the

high availability of FTTP/B limits the use of fast mobile data

52. Vietnam: liberalisation of the market and mobile number portability will

lead to an increase in competition

53. Vietnam: forecast changes

54. Methodology

55. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge

56. Examples of forecast input drivers

57. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]

58. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]

59. About the authors and Analysys Mason

60. About the authors

61. About the authors

62. Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

63. Research from Analysys Mason

64. Consulting from Analysys Mason

4

Contents [2]


Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue,

emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024

Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country,

emerging Asia–Pacific, 2018–2024

Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed

broadband connections by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2018 and 20241

Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for emerging Asia–

Pacific

Figure 5: Metrics for the 13 countries modelled individually in emerging Asia–

Pacific, 2018

Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in emerging Asia–

Pacific

Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory

(2019–2024), by country, emerging Asia–Pacific

Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia–

Pacific (USD billion), 2014–2024

Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–

2024

Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging

Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024

Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (million), 2014–

2024

Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, emerging Asia–Pacific (million),

2014–2024

Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD per month),

2014–2024

Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), emerging


Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia–Pacific (GB per

month), 2014–2024

Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024

Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024

Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024

Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024

Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia–Pacific

(million), 2014–2024

Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, emerging Asia–Pacific (USD billion),

2014–2024

Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of

broadband connections, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024

Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, emerging Asia–

Pacific (GB per month), 2014–2024

Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging


Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, emerging


Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific,

2014–2024

Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, emerging Asia–Pacific,

2014–2024

Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, emerging


Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, emerging Asia–Pacific,

2014–2024

Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024

5

List of figures [1]


Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, China (CNY trillion),

2014–2024

Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, China (billion), 2014–2024

Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, China,

2014–2024

Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, China (million), 2014–2024

Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, China, 2014–

2024

Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, China (CNY

per month), 2014–2024

Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, China (GB per month), 2014–

2024

Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, China (million), 2014–2024

Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue – current and previous forecasts,

China, 2014–2024

Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Indonesia (IDR

trillion), 2014–2024

Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2014–2024

Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Indonesia,

2014–2024

Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2014–2024

Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Indonesia, 2014–

2024

Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Indonesia

(IDR thousand per month), 2014–2024

Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Indonesia (GB per month),

2014–2024

Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Indonesia (million), 2014–

2024


Indonesia, 2014–2024

Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Malaysia (MYR

billion), 2014–2024

Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2014–2024

Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Malaysia,

2014–2024

Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2014–2024

Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Malaysia, 2014–

2024

Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Malaysia

(MYR per month), 2014–2024

Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Malaysia (GB per month), 2014–

2024

Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Malaysia (million), 2014–

2024


Malaysia, 2014–2024

Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Philippines (PHP

billion), 2014–2024

Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Philippines (million), 2014–2024

Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Philippines,

2014–2024

Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Philippines (million), 2014–2024

6

List of figures [2]


Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Philippines,

2014–2024

Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Philippines

(PHP per month), 2014–2024

Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Philippines (GB per month),

2014–2024

Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Philippines (million), 2014–

2024


Philippines, 2014–2024

Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Thailand (THB

billion), 2014–2024

Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Thailand (million), 2014–2024

Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Thailand,

2014–2024

Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Thailand (million), 2014–2024

Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Thailand, 2014–

2024

Figure 68: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Thailand

(THB per month), 2014–2024

Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Thailand (GB per month), 2014–

2024

Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Thailand (million), 2014–

2024


Thailand, 2014–2024

Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Vietnam (VND

trillion), 2014–2024

Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2014–2024

Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Vietnam,

2014–2024

Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2014–2024

Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Vietnam, 2014–

2024

Figure 77: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Vietnam

(VND thousand per month), 2014–2024

Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Vietnam (GB per month), 2014–

2024

Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Vietnam (million), 2014–

2024


Vietnam, 2014–2024

Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key

drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key

drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

7

List of figures [3]


The total telecoms service revenue in EMAP will exceed

USD340 billion by 2024.

EMAP remains one of the strongest regions in the world in terms

of telecoms revenue growth potential. The region comprises some

of the fastest growing economies in the world, and the mobile and

fixed service take-up in some of the countries is still far from

saturation point.

Mobile retail revenue (including that from handsets, broadband

and IoT) will increase at a CAGR of 1.8% during the forecast

period, and will exceed USD239 billion by 2024. Many markets

have now matured, and the rate of growth in the number of

subscribers has generally slowed down. Government regulations

and strong competition are driving prices down, although

increasing smartphone take-up and improved network quality

should ensure that mobile data traffic continues to increase at a

rapid rate, and that operators’ data revenue continues to grow.

Fixed retail revenue (including that from voice, broadband,

business services and pay TV) will continue to grow at a CAGR of

2.4% during the forecast period. The next-generation access

(NGA) share of fixed connections will increase substantially in

many countries in EMAP. Pay-TV revenue growth will be

particularly strong because improving internet coverage and

speed (both mobile and fixed) will drive a large increase in the

take-up of IPTV and OTT video subscriptions.

Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total

service revenue, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2014–2024

Both mobile and fixed retail revenue will increase in emerging Asia–Pacific over the

forecast period

0

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Mobile handset Mobile broadband

Mobile IoT Fixed voice

Fixed broadband Specialist business services

Pay TV Service revenueSource: Analysys Mason


Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2018–2024

Total retail revenue will grow most significantly in Pakistan and Cambodia, while the growth in Myanmar and Malaysia will be marginal.

Telecoms retail revenue growth will be the greatest in Pakistan, Cambodia and Indonesia, at a CAGR of above 7%. The Indonesian market

will remain strong, and will recover quickly from the implementation of the prepaid SIM card registration regulation. Robust 4G take-up will

drive mobile retail revenue growth in Pakistan, while the growth in telecoms retail revenue in Cambodia will be driven by the improving

competitive environment and the expansion of network coverage.

10

Pakistan, Cambodia and Indonesia are the only countries in which the telecoms

retail revenue will grow by a CAGR of more than 7% in the period to 2024

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ContentsExecutive summary and recommendations

Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

Individual country forecasts

Methodology

About the authors and Analysys Mason


Casey Cragg (Research Analyst) is a member of the Regional Markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market

Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. Casey holds an MSci in Astrophysics from University College London. His dissertation was

an investigation of the evolution of the statistical distribution of galaxies in the universe.

About the authors

60

Polytimos Kontos (Research Analyst) is a member of our data research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market

Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Data research programmes. He holds an MSc in

Management from London Business School and an MEng in Civil Engineering from University of Patras.

Qingyi Liang (Research Analyst) is a member of the Data Team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European

Country Reports and Asia–Pacific programmes. Qingyi has a MSc in Biomedical Sciences, and a PhD in Epigenetics and Cancer Biology from

University College London.


About the authors

61

Stephen Wilson (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Fixed Broadband Services research programme. He leads Analysys

Mason’s annual FTTx coverage, capex and conversion forecasts, and other recent areas of focus include examining fixed broadband operators’

home Wi-Fi strategies. Stephen has more than 10 years of experience in the telecoms sector and is a graduate in Philosophy, Politics and

Economics from St Catherine's College, Oxford University.


Consulting

We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms

industry:

▪ communications and digital service providers, vendors,

financial and strategic investors, private equity and

infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters

and service and content providers

Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges

facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.

We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges

and opportunities new technology brings.

Research

Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different

services accessed by consumers and enterprises.

We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and

technology delivering those services.

Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct

access to analysts.

Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio

62

Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned


Research from Analysys Mason

63


Consulting from Analysys Mason

64


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FEBRUARY 2020

emerging asia pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts ......emerging asia–pacific telecoms...

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