Emerging Digital Democracy?Social Media & Sri Lanka's Presidential Election 2015

By Nalaka GunawardeneScience writer, columnist & new media watcher

Institute of Commonwealth Studies,

University of London& Commonwealth Journalists’ Association (CJA)

London 12 Feb 2015

My Perspective… Science writer & journalist for 25+ yrs Exploring technology-society nexus… Chronicling (since 1990) how new comm

technologies are reshaping Lankan society Blogger since 2007: nalakagunawardene.com On Twitter since 2009: @NalakaG Ranked among Top 10 tweeps during

#PresPollSL

My limitations… Not a political scientist or analyst Not affiliated with any political

party or lobby group Views here entirely my own Have more questions than

answers right now!

Images used in good faith, non-commercially

Sri Lanka Presidential Election 2015:A Brief Chronology

20 Nov 2014: incumbent President Rajapaksa issued proclamation calling for a presidential election 2 yrs ahead of schedule

21 Nov: Rajapaksa’s Health Minister & Party Gen Sec Maithripala Sirisena defects, becomes Common Opposition Candidate

8 Dec: Nominations given by 19 candidates 8 Jan 2015: Election Day: 81.52% voter turn-out 9 Jan 2015: Maithripala Sirisena declared

winner, sworn in the same day

#PresPollSLResults in summary

Full official results at: http://www.slelections.gov.lk/presidential2015/AIVOT.html

A very close contest…Result that surprised many…

More than a change of guard:A new political culture emerging?

Rajapaksa vs Sirisena: MR vs MSContest in physical & cyber worlds…

Election campaigning period:All typical factors were seen…

Elections happen in rough-and-tumble world of

politics. During 50 days of #PresPollSL, we saw: Political parties realigning Some Members of Parliament crossing over Large volumes of money being spent (minor) ideological differences Some physical violence (but not as feared) Issues eclipsed by personalities

Key campaign issues: Structural changes dominant

Abolition of all-powerful Executive Presidency Constitutional reforms Need for genuine reconciliation (civil war

ended in mid 2009) Good governance, specifically:

Ending widespread corruption Ending nepotism and cronyism Ensuring independence of the Judiciary Guaranteeing freedom of expression

Cost of living & state of the economy

2 important trends this time Stronger civil society participation:

NGOs, professionals, progressive clergy Framing political debates Presenting demands & priorities to candidates Shaping manifesto of Common Opp Candidate

Unprecedented use of new media Mobile phones (esp smartphones) Social Media (esp Facebook, Twitter, YouTube) Politically unaffiliated cyber-activists vocal Candidates’ using new media (but not engaging)

Emerging Information Society?Is Sri Lanka’s information society reaching maturity? Mobile phones for 25 yrs (since 1989) Commercial Internet for 20 yrs (since 1995) Progressive telecom regulation market

competition affordable telecom services No longer limited to cities, English speakers or

middle class demographics Game changer: Mobiles & Smartphones

connecting to the web

Mobile phone subscriptions growth: 1991 – 2014 March This is the way

Source: Telecom Regulatory Commission of Sri Lanka

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014 Mar

Subscribers

Internet subscriptions (accounts) 1995-2014 (No of users: x 2 or x 3)

Source: Telecom Regulatory Commission of Sri Lanka

0

2,00,000

4,00,000

6,00,000

8,00,000

10,00,000

12,00,000

14,00,000

16,00,000

18,00,000

20,00,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mar

I & E-mail

Mobile BB

New Media Use in Sri LankaHeadline figures to note

Sri Lanka total pop: 21 million 105 mobile subscriptions per 100 persons Allowing for multiple SIMs, approx most

adults use or have easy access to a mobile Est. 2.5 – 3 million smartphones in use Around 22% of pop using Internet regularly Most web access thru mobile devices Costs of connection & use among lowest in

world (smartphones from £50 up; data packages from £1.50/month)

Still not clear… WHEN does an emerging information

society reach critical threshold when connectedness influences voter behaviour significantly? Internet use rate: 20%, 25% or 40%? Mobile penetration: 50%, 75%, 100%?

Which are the enabling or mitigating factors in such scenarios?

More social science research needed! Pity Lankan universities don’t study this

My analogy on what’s going on: Umbra + Penumbra during eclipses!

Something similar happening in LK with 22% Internet users’ access casting a wider shadow in society: needs more research to understand

Leading political commentator & blogger agrees…

“This election saw an unprecedented use of social media in Sri Lanka. Over 80% of our youth is computer literate - many have smartphones and regularly log in to social media. Political content they absorb from online sources spreads fast to (offline) communities in villages.”

Ajith Perakum Jayasingha Blogger & Tweep

@ajithperakum

Social Media and Elections:What is happening in Asia?

Social Media and Elections in Asia-Pacific – The Growing Power of the Youth Vote

Pub: Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung’s Media Programme Asia in Singapore; Nov 2013

Editors: Alastair Carthew & Simon Winkelmann

Full book for free download: http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/kas_35939-1522-2-30.pdf?131105090233

Sri Lanka Case Study:Colombo Municipal Election Oct 2011

Chapter by Nalaka Gunawardene & Chanuka Wattegama:

Did youth vote & social media make a difference in CMC (local govt) Election of Oct 2011?

Our conclusion: Not quite -- but a new trend is emerging: Watch This Space!

Full chapter download:

http://goo.gl/a8ByOs

#PresPollSL 2015 (38 months later) Trends clearer & stronger Political parties still in ‘broadcast mode’:

centrally produced messages & materials disseminated thru media, outdoors

For party campaign managers, web & social media just another outlet/medium?

Neither MR nor MS campaigns really engaged voters much online

Tech-savvy citizens used social media to deepen & enrich public debates

Had a ripple effect on society as a whole

Most vibrant discussions onlineAlso a lot of noise (unavoidable)

Hashtag #PresPollSL was used by thousands as common denominator in Twitter & Facebook

Arise, tech-savvy citizens!During #PresPollSL campaign period, numerouscitizens used social media to: Question candidates on specifics Advocate public interest and/or reforms Counter misinformation from campaigns Ridicule excessive campaign practices Mobilise all voters to turn up Protest against election violence Lobby for ignored but vital issues

Online conversation topics(Different to mainstream media’s)

My impressionistic listing is based on many observations during election campaign period: Racial & religious harmony Excessive militarization of society large scale corruption & lack of law

enforcement declining rule of law lack of media freedom state of the economy Rise of ultra-nationalism and superstition

Role of social media during election: as seen by cartoonist of Ceylon Today

Mainstream media cautious, flooded with paid campaign advertising

All newspaper frontpages bought by Rajapaksa campaign on nominations day, 8 Dec 2014

Gross misuse of state power, esp state media by the incumbent

Outdoor promotion frenzy by MR campaign

Maithri campaign more subdued, promising Unity & Real Change

Ethnic minority voters initially uncertain of what it means

Daily Mirror cartoon by Awantha Artigala

Mahinda ‘Brand’ promotionIncumbent was promoted on these factors: Tried and tested leader Winning the 26-yr war Economic growth & infrastructure dev Patriot who stood up to the West & rest Only he can safeguard territorial integrity of

Sri Lanka Give one more term ‘to finish what he started’

Rajapaksa campaign: showcasing post-war growth & rebuilding

Maithri ‘brand’ promotion Grassroots politician, man of the people Unifying figure for a broad political alliance Vote for him to end corruption & family rule He will abolish (or dilute) Executive Presidency Restore rule of law Respect rights and dignity of all citizens Unitary state, but a multicultural society

Uncluttered imagery: candidate and his rainbow alliance

Play on his name which means compassion

MR & MS Mainstream Media campaigns: Total advertising spend? Rajapaksa: LKR 2.03 billion = GBP 10.12m

All came from public funds and budget for president’s office and other ministries

Sirisena: LKR 676 million = GBP 3.42m Airtime and print space buying only (not

covering production costs)

Source: The Sunday Times (Sri Lanka): 15 Jan 2015

http://www.sundaytimes.lk/150118/business-times/former-president-spent-over-rs-2-bln-in-state-funds-on-election-ads-130623.html

Political campaigns online… Official websites Official Facebook pages Official Twitter accounts Fan/supporter efforts

ORCHESTRATED, MOSTLY ONE-WAY

CONTRASTED WITH CONTESTED SPACE

ON SOCIAL MEDIA

Indian cyber factor in #PresPollSL 2015?

Rajapaksa campaign reportedly engaged Arvind Gupta @buzzindelhi (key social media advisor to Narendra Modi in 2014)

The Hindu & other media reports not fully confirmed

MR’s online presence far stronger than Maithri’s

However, it’s not only a numbers game…

Cartoon by The Sunday Times, Sri Lanka

Sirisena social media:A small miracle?

Seemed to be driven mostly by volunteers (not necessarily party supporters)

Passionate – but not always well coordinated – individuals

Helped to rebalance huge asymmetry of resources between two campaigns

Underdog sympathy enjoyed

Trend 1:Web memes come of age! Words, images or combination Some funny, others serious Creators unknown (or stayed

anonymous) Ideal for quick sharing on social

media Spurring much discussion No ‘Sacred Cows’! (monks &

military included)

Memes galore!(most in local languages)

Adapting existing memes…

Two of the most widely shared citizen icons/memes during election

My own simple meme:Widely shared on The Day After

Trend 2:Big PR & Advertising trumped

Unpaid, unknown citizen creations more appealing & widely shared online

Officially engaged (and highly paid) PR firms & ad agencies had competition!

“Rough & Dirty” wins over slick & costly

Most jibes were aimed at incumbent, e.g.

“Modern proverb: Borrowing from China; donating to Palestine!”

Pro-incumbent creation: “Criticise him, but don’t forget we breathe today thanks to this brave leader!”

Shortly after Sirisena defected to the Opposition and

became Common Presidential Candidate…

Salman Khan’s role in MR campaign:Lampooned avidly in social media!

Brief campaign appearance for Rajapaksa in late Dec

Trend 3:‘Long tails’ of politico words & videos

Politicians’ past words & deeds located & showcased online by cyber activists…

Video clips of campaign gaffes shared on Facebook & YouTube

Having to EAT THEIR OWN WORDS?

Indiscretions can no longer be played down or wished way: They live online!

Loose Talk, amplified online!

Daily Mirror front page report on remark by Rajapaksa govt’s minister: “We have plundered enough!”

Immediately seized & very widely shared by social media users

Such unguarded words achieved long shelf-life on YouTube, Facebook

Trend 4:Social Media as a networking space

Provided space for activists, artistes, university students & public intellectuals to network, collaborate & disseminate political info & opinions

Critical political websites were blocked within Lanka - BUT not social media platforms!

Vital in view of mainstream media’s self-censorship + widespread repression of dissent

Anti-govt street protest notice, shared online

[Left] Transparency Int call to citizens to protect public property being misused during election campaigns[Above] Countdown to Maithri Era

Trend 5:Civil Society is web-savvy & creative! Going beyond statements, press releases,

placards, physical marches, rallies, etc. Innovating online for political advocacy:

Infographics (e.g. making sense of numbers) word-clouds (e.g. visualizing manifestos) interactive maps (e.g. geo-referencing election

violence) Online surveys showcasing citizen sentiments Online petitions on specific reforms

Rajapaksa manifestoKeywords captured in word cloud

By Groundviews.org on 27 Dec 2014http://groundviews.org/2014/12/27/mahinda-rajapaksa-maithripala-sirisena-2015-manifesto-wordclouds/

Sirisena manifestoKeywords captured in word cloud

By Groundviews.org on 27 Dec 2014http://groundviews.org/2014/12/27/mahinda-rajapaksa-maithripala-sirisena-2015-manifesto-wordclouds/

CPA’s online survey: 12-16 Dec 2014: based on 1,394 respondents

Campaign by Groundviews.org urging every voter to turn up on Election Day

81.52% registered voters did: highest in any LK Presidential Election

My finger ‘selfie’ shared online8 Jan 2015 (just after I voted)

Trend 6:Citizens talk back on Social Media! Orthodoxy, sycophancy and

sometimes gross misinformation in sections of mainstream media countered by bloggers, tweeps and other social media users

Many alternative political discussions unfolding online

Leading local language bloggers have bigger readership than some mainstream daily newspapers!

Rare instance of citizen engagement: by Maithri campaign heavyweight

JHU (Buddhist monks’ party) became key supporters of Sirisena. But their leader avoided my questions on multiculturalism, 13th Amendment to Constitution (devolution)

QUSTION NOT ANSWERED!

QUSTION NOT ANSWERED!

Also avoided: Questions on 13th Amendment to the Constitution that devolves power to Provinces

Trend 7:Social media amplifying Mainstream Media

MSM+SM came together at times

Some news, analysis or cartoons in mainstream widely shared on social media…

Inspiring discussion & debate Assuming momentum of own Adding to citizen demands for

clarity on manifestos, for non-violent campaigning, etc.

It is our democratic right to cast our vote to any candidate of our choice, without fear or influence

Wijeya Newspapers cartoonist Awantha Artigala’s creation widely shared in social media

Mainstream news photos going ‘viral’ on SM

Protesting university students attacked by police in Colombo

This police officer’s son condemned dad’s attack on Facebook

It went viral!

Thousands of Voices online…Top 10 Tweeps using #PresPollSLEclectic mix comprising: 2 main candidates’ official accounts 2 foreign corrs (BBC Sinhala, BBC corr in Colombo) 3 mainstream journalists (tweeting personally) 1 daily newspaper (Daily Mirror official newsfeed) 1 automated bot (Siripala) 4 citizen journalists 1 hybrid journalist (myself!)

Full analyis on Read.Me online IT Magazine:http://readme.lk/running-prespollsl/

This is a highly visualized map of the flow of information along the #PresPollSL hashtag, dating from now to the 10th of January. Each twitter account is represented by a circle (node). The size of each node directly corresponds to the number of tweets it’s pushing out. Details: http://readme.lk/running-prespollsl/

Archive of tweets on 2015 Presidential Election

Every single tweet with hashtag #PresPollSL, used by mainstream media, leading civic media & citizen journalism initiatives in Sri Lanka to post updates around Presidential Election 2015

http://groundviews.org/2014/11/27/archive-of-tweets-on-2015-presidential-election/

Elections & Social Media:Rapidly evolving nexus

“Tactics such as owning, controlling and displaying media (e.g. posters & large cutouts) that would have worked 6 yrs ago, don’t seem to work anymore. Even the social media we think we know and understand is changing rapidly…”

- Angelo Fernando technology columnist; author, Chat Republic (2013) @heyangelo

Was #PresPollSL 2015 Sri Lanka’s first Cyber Election?

We have more questions than answers for now!

Worth probing further, as I said in my essay capturing impressions & examples

Groundviews.org: 15 Jan 2015 http://groundviews.org/2015/01/1

3/was-prespollsl-2015-sri-lankas-first-cyber-election/

Unanswered Questions!#Attn: media & info society researchers!

Did myriads of open, public conversations raise level of public awareness of key political issues relevant to this election?

How much of citizen awakening can be attributed to the fast spread of smartphones and broadband Internet?

Could such fleeting communications really have influenced how people voted?

Did cyber-savvy Lankans play a decisive role in the peaceful regime change that happened on Jan 8/9?

Thank You!

Blog: www.nalakagunawardene.comColumn archive:

https://collidecolumn.wordpress.com

Twitter: @NalakaG

This is a contested space:Always open for debate!