emerging ideas on adaptation to climate change anand patwardhan executive director technology...

Emerging ideas on adaptation to climate change

Anand Patwardhan

Executive DirectorTechnology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council, Ministry of Science & Technology

May 2006 Anand Patwardhan - BASIC project India workshop 2

Outline

State of science and evolution of understanding Research needs (adaptive capacity, indicators)

Action on adaptation Staged approach Funding

Way forward Principles and operationalization

Emerging themes Adaptation and sustainable development Mainstreaming


Key concepts

AdaptationAdjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Types of adaptation include anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation

Adaptive Capacity The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences

Sensitivity Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli.

Vulnerability The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity


Why is adaptation important?

Regardless of mitigation, we are faced with a finite, and significant degree of anthropogenic climate change

Managing climate risk is likely to be important for sustainable development

For both these reasons, adaptation should be an important part of policy response to climate change


Evolving ideas on adaptation

Adaptation viewed purely as a response mechanism

Adaptation as an element of scenario-impact assessments

Vulnerability and adaptive capacity as central themes in adaptation

Adaptation and sustainable development: mainstreaming adaptation


Initial thinking on adaptation – a function of response Adaptation viewed as ‘adjustments’ made in ‘practices,

processes, or structures of systems to projected or actual changes in climate’

At the end of the sequential process identified for impact assessments

Seven step methodology for impact assessment in the IPCC Second Assessment Report

Define the problem Select method of assessment Test methods/ conduct sensitivity analysis Select and apply climate change scenarios Assess biophysical and socio-economic impacts Assess autonomous adjustments Evaluate adaptation strategies


Insights from the IPCC ThirdAssessment Report Vulnerability and adaptation given significant importance in WG

II, shift in emphasis from “mechanistic” impact assessment Importance of extreme events, cross-sectoral analysis and

multiple stresses Regional predictions still highly uncertain, important phenomena

not well captured (monsoon) Focus on adaptation, recognition of the link with development

and equity issues, introduce concepts such as adaptive capacity Recognition that those with least resources have the least ability

to adapt


Preliminary ideas from the IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report Adaptation defined as adjustments made to ‘enhance resilience’ or ‘reduce vulnerability’

Adaptation practices may be looked at from various perspectives: Spatial scale Sectors Climate stress / hazard Baseline economic development level of the systems they

are implemented in Relating adaptation to adaptive capacity

Adaptive capacity represents potential rather than actual adaptation


Research issues in adaptation Indicators and measuring adaptation Adaptive capacity Structuring and formulating adaptation interventions Impacts – proximate, non-proximate; marginal, non-

marginal, stocks vs. flows Interactions across scales (spatial, temporal,

institutional) – aggregation issues Extremes and variability Scenarios


Measuring adaptation

What should be measured? Hazard Risk Exposure Vulnerability Impacts Adaptation intervention Effectiveness of adaptation intervention


Adaptive capacity

Autonomous – what responses are happening (will happen) automatically?

How will impacts be perceived, how will they be evaluated and how will response take place?

Who will respond, in what way? Adaptive capacity is influenced not only by factors that

promote or constrain the adoption of technologies and management practices, but also by the economic, social, political, environmental, institutional, and cultural factors that create both external and internal incentives as well as barriers to adaptation


Action on adaptation

Types of interventions Financing and supporting adaptation International actions Approach for moving forward


Range of adaptation responses


Classifying adaptation measures


Time-scales of response

Anticipatory adaptation to climate change risks may take place at three levels:

Adaptation to current variability For observed medium change/variability Long-term changes

Responses across the three levels are closely intertwined, and indeed might form a continuum.

Visible shift of emphasis from first level to the second and third levels Increasing examples of measures taken to cope with the impacts of

observed trends in climate, as well as scenarios of climate change. Tsho Rolpa risk reduction project in Nepal Quinhai-Tibet Railway in China Konkan Railway in Western India Thames Barrier in UK Copenhagen metro in Denmark


Initial thinking on action

Adaptation within the financial mechanism of the Convention Identification of need for programming adaptation interventions within the

climate change response framework Designing a framework for funding adaptation

Initial thoughts on adaptation viewed it as an independent process rather than an action taken in integration with ongoing programmes

Thus, the staged approach to adaptation surfaced in the UNFCCC (decision 11/CP.1)

Views adaptation in three stages of interventions Identifies adaptation interventions as sequential, one leading to another Has been the programming guideline for financing adaptation in the

international arena


Staged approach to adaptation Stage I: planning through studies to identify

vulnerabilities (vulnerable countries and regions),

policy options (for adaptation response measures),

and appropriate capacity building

Stage II: identifying measures to prepare for

adaptation and further capacity building

Stage III: promoting measures to facilitate

adaptation, including insurance and other adaptation

interventions


Taking the dialogue further

What needs to be funded – guiding principles for

funding adaptation

Identification of ‘concrete’ – what will define the

concrete adaptation measures

Mainstreaming – what and how

Exploring new mechanisms and tools

What should be measured and how – identifying

indicators


What should be funded?

What kinds of projects? Pilot vs. full Climate variability vs. anthropogenic climate

change Climate and non-climate benefits

Are there a set of projects that have unambiguous climate change linkages


Principles for funding adaptation Automaticity in contributions Adequacy and predictability of resources Move from enabling activities to real projects Guiding the institutional process

Ensuring flexibility Expediting the process Enabling wider access Re-programming the approach to funding

adaptation


Identifying ‘concrete’ interventions Moving away from the ‘staged approach’

New knowledge acquired on the theme of adaptation suggests

that adaptation interventions are NOT sequential

Adaptation interventions are now viewed in integration with each

other and the development programmes

Need for identifying a new approach that identifies major types of

interventions that can be taken up across sectors relevant in

sustainable development


Towards a portfolio approach

A portfolio of broad interventions for adaptation

Interventions may be identified through the views and priorities expressed in the Convention and the various decisions Mainstreaming activities Technology development and transfer Insurance


Technology development and transferas a tool for adaptation Technology transfer is very relevant

Role of traditional knowledge and capturing the value

The dialogue needs to be extended to include Technology development Adoption of technology Barrier removal Favorable market mechanisms Creating enabling environment


Insurance

Insurance as an instrument for providing ‘risk-cover’ against the impacts of climate change and variability, specifically for extreme weather events.

Exploring the tool Creation of viable insurance markets requires risk pooling and

reinsurance mechanisms The former might require pooling across sectors and even

countries The latter might require access to a source of funds that is

generated through automatic contributions Possibilities

Public-private partnerships Disaster risk insurance


Linking adaptation and sustainable development Emerging realization of the links between climate change and

sustainable development

IPCC (2001) identified that ‘activities required for enhancement of adaptive capacity are essentially equivalent to those promoting sustainable development’.

It has further been understood that climate change adaptation and equity goals can be achieved through the route taken for achieving development goals such as improving food security, provision of safe drinking water, shelter and health care and access to other resources.


Mainstreaming adaptation

Mainstreaming adaptation into development activities – leverage concessional developmental funds?

Increasingly, many developmental activities (for example in infrastructure) are being implemented by the private sector

How can we evaluate the portfolio of development projects to: Assess implications of climate change for project benefits? Assess implications of project for reducing vulnerability to

climate change? Related question:

How can we incrementally adjust project design or implementation to enhance climate change related benefits?

Mainstreaming in practice Building ownership among stakeholders Engaging private sector as active partners in sustainable

development programmes


Barriers to adaptation

Financial Increased realisation that available funding may not

always be sufficient to cover the financial requirements of rehabilitation, mitigation and adaptation, specifically in case of extreme events

Therefore, Insurance may be an instrument worth exploring

Institutional Social and Cultural Technological Informational


Future directions Research issues in adaptation science Focused research on methodologies for mainstreaming

adaptation Development and diffusion of technologies for

adaptation in developing countries Fostering public-private partnerships for mainstreaming

as well as technology development and transfer Exploring innovative funding mechanisms that provide

automaticity for resource generation Exploring insurance as the tool for providing risk cover against

climate change and variability

emerging ideas on adaptation to climate change anand patwardhan executive director technology...

Documents

adaptation adaptation

adaptation important

adaptation indicators

measuring adaptation

reactive adaptation

public adaptation

types of adaptation

actual adaptation slide