emerging patterns of voting inlok sabha elections

7/27/2019 Emerging Patterns of voting inLok Sabha elections

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Emerging Patterns of voting in

Lok Sabha elections


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Emerging Patterns of voting in Lok Sabha elections

Uday Dandavate

Highest percentage of votes polled and seats won by the Congress party since

independence was during the sympathy wave generated by Mrs. Indira Gandhis

assassination in 1984 during the election to the 8th Lok Sabha. When Rajeev

Gandhi became PM with 404 seats and secured 49.01% of polled votes.

Next to 1984, the Congress Party under the leadership of Jawaharlal Nehru

secured 47.78% of polled votes and won 371 seats during the 2nd Lok Sabha

elections in 1957. It was a result of an affirmation of Jawahalal Nehrus charisma,

and goodwill earned from the legacy of freedom struggle.

The decline of Congress Party vote began with the contentious ascendance of

Mrs. Indira Gandhi after she manipulated isolation of the veteran Congress

leader Morarjibhai Desai in 1967. During the election to the 4th Lok Sabha in

1967, Congress partys vote share reduced to 40.78% of polled votes and its tally

went down to 283.

The euphoria after winning the Bangla Desh war brought Mrs. Gandhi a slight

increase in voting percentage to 43.68 of polled votes and increased Congress

partys tally to 352 seats during the election to the 5th Lok Sabha in 1971.

The years following the Bangla Desh war are known for exponential growth in

political corruption and concentration of Power under Prime Minister Indira

Gandhi. During this period she squandered away the legacy of the congress

party of pre-independence year and turned the government into her personal

fiefdom and the party into a vehicle for perpetuating her dynasty.


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The first spark against the unbridled corruption and authoritarian rule of the Indira

Gandhi came in form of a call for total revolution by veteran socialist leader

Jayprakash Narayan in 1975. The last straw on the camels back came in form

of Mrs. Gandhi losing an election petition filed by Raj Narayan. A defiant Indira

suspended the constitution, put the opposition leaders in prison, and declared a

state of emergency- a mistake that cost her and the congress party dearly, in

form of losing its monopoly in the political arena. Until this point no opposition

party had posed a serious threat to the congress rule.

In 1977 Indira Gandhi lost the election to the Janata Party alliance, which scored

a historic win with 51.89% of popular votes and 345 seats in the Parliament. For

the first time Indian voters experienced the power of a vote in ending ruling

partys monopoly. Unfortunately, the Janata Praty squandered away the

mandate, due to ambitious of its leaders.

The Indian voters again demonstrated the power of voting by punishing the

Janata Party. The Janata Alliance could only get 31 members elected to the

Parliament during the election to the 8th Lok Sabha. Mrs. Gandhi came back with

42.69 % votes polled and 353 Seats.

Mrs. Gandhis autocratic and corrupt ways did not change. Unfortunately her

bodyguards assassinated her in 1984. Indira Gandhis assassination gave her

son Rajiv Gandhi a historical win at the polls in the 9th Lok Sabha. The sympathy

wave brought him to the Parliament with 49.01 % of polled votes and 404 elected

members of Parliament.

The Congress party had institutionalized and perfected the art of corruption.

Bofors Bribery scandal rocked the nation during Rajiv Gandhis rule, leading to

the resignation of Mr. V.P. Singh from the cabinet. Sensing the public mood

against corruption the opposition parties united under the umbrella of National


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Front. Rajiv Gandhis massive mandate from 1984 was reduced by more than

half to just 197 seats (with 49.01% of polled votes) in the parliament and the

Janata Party formed government with outside support of the communists and the

BJP, who had campaigned together against the Bofors scandal.

The opposition unity did not last for too long. VP Singh accepted Mandal

Commission recommendation for reservations for the Other Backward Classes.

To counter his move aimed at consolidating the votes of backward classes, Mr

L.K. Advani of BJP, embarked on a nationwide march demanding construction of

a Ram Temple in place of the historic Babri Masjid in Ayodhya.

Mr. L.K. Advanis Rath Yatra to Ayodhya was stopped by Janata Party Chief

Minister Laloo Yadav. This interruption in its political program resulted in BJP

withdrawing support to the VP Singh government.

The elections to the 10th Lok Sabha, following defeat of the VP Singh

Government were conducted through a three-phase polling. The popular mood

was still against Rajiv Gandhi. The real fight seemed to be between the Janata

Party that had donned the mantle of champions of the backward classes and the

BJP, who was using the Ram Temple issue to pursue their ideal of Hindu

Nationalism. In the first round of polling, the congress party fared poorly,

indicating an impending defeat of the congress party. However immediately after

the first round of voting, Rajeev Gandhi was assassinated in Sriperumbudur,

resulting in suspension of the campaign and postponement of voting for the next

two rounds. The congress party made use of the additional time available to

generate a sympathy wave, which resulted in a complete turn around in voting

pattern favoring the congress party. Yet, the congress party could only secure

overall 39.53 % votes and garner 197 members of Parliament. Mr. Narasimha

Rao Had to cobble-up a coalition by seeking support of other parties and

independents. The back room manipulations and financial enticements given to


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the MPs during this period led to a major blowout of a scandal, which ultimately

resulted in conviction of Mr. Narasimha Rao.

The opposition parties had by now recognized that when they posed a united

challenge to the Congress party mathematics favored them. A renewed attempt

at consolidation of opposition parties at the poll, resulted in further erosion of

Congress partys vote to 28.8 during the 11th Lok Sabha Election, leaving the

party with only 140 seats. As the largest party, BJP got invited to form the

government but could not find enough supporters.

The congress party propped up a Janata Dal led government. Leading it was

Prime Minister Deve Gowda, whose United Front only had elected 79 members

of the parliament and 14.33% of the votes polled. After humiliating the United

Front by first seeking replacement of Mr. Gowda with Mr. Gujral as a Prime

Minister and eventually also by pulling the rug under the feet of Mr. Gujral, the

congress demolished a fragile mathematical advantage the opposition had

created for itself. With the fall of the United Front government India went to polls

again.

Though in the past public humiliation of opposition had led Congress to power in

the past, this time around, the fall of Unite Front government did not help the

congress party during the elections to the 12th Lok Sabha in 1998. Its vote share

reduced further to 25.82% of polled votes and the seats in the Parliament

increased by just one to 141. The Bharatiya Janata Party increased its tally to

182 seats. Atal Bihari Vajpayee government was formed with support of other

parties. However it collapsed within 13 months when Jaylalitha withdrew support,

plunging the country into another round of elections.

The elections to the 13th Lok Sabha saw return of Atal Bihari Vajpayee

government when a number of opposition parties formed an alliance under the


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umbrella of National Democratic Front. The NDA secured 37.06% of the polled

votes and garnered 270 seats. Congress tally remained at a low 28.3% of polled

votes with 114 members in the Parliament.

Atal Bihari Vajpayee managed a coalition comprising of parties with disparate

ideologies with his well known conciliatory approach. The BJP began to develop

a confidence that it had finally displaced the congress party for ever. As a sense

of conceit grew amongst BJP leadership, it faced disappointment at the next

election.

The campaign for the 14th Lok Sabha demonstrated that the Indian voters did not

entertain arrogance of power anymore. The BJP spent millions of rupees in a

media campaign proclaiming, India shining. The poor and struggling masses

felt humiliated by this conceited declaratoin and punished the BJP/NDA

government by electing congress party back to power, albeit as a member of a

coalition. In this election congress party improved its position to 145 and secured

26.7% of polled votes.

Mr. Manmohan Singh was appointed the Prime Minister of India by Mrs. Sonia

Gandhi, who refused to don the position herself, after an outcry about her

suitability to don the Priministership due to her foreign origin.

The first term of the congress government under an unassuming Manmohan

Singh led to a second victory for the Congress party in the election to the 15 th Lok

Sabha. The congress party improved its numbers in the Lok Sabha to 206 with

only a marginal improvement in percentage of votes poled to 28.55%. The BJP

was close behind with just 24.63% votes but a tally of only 116 seats in the

Parliament.


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Looking at the fluctuating mandate received by various political parties, it

becomes clear that,

The congress party reached the point of diminishing returns on their ability to

capitalize on the legacy of the freedom struggle just as Mrs. Gandhi manipulated

her ascendancy to Prime Ministership by splitting the Congress party.

It is clear that since 1977, the voting decisions of a significant percentage of

Indian voters was swayed by emotions. The congress party twice benefited from

sympathy wave generated by assassination of their Prime Ministers. The party

has also fell victim to voter anger (against rampant corruption in the

administration). The Janata Party, National Front and United Front had to bear

the brunt of voter disenchantment with their inability to stay united.

It is hard to assess how India will vote in 2014. The voter anger against

corruption in the government is at a historical high. However, the opposition to

the government is divided due to a polarizing presence of Narendra Modi as a

challenger to the congress party. Mr. Modi believes that his promise of

development, combined with the agenda of consolidating Hindu Nationalism will

over-ride the mathematical disadvantage of disunity in opposition ranks. Had the

opposition been successful in uniting around a more conciliatory leadership,

congress partys defeat at the next poll would have been a forgone conclusion.

However, Modis campaign strategy defies past trends. His options are limited.

His vision would be successful and his style of governance more effective if he is

able to bring victory to the BJP in about 300 + seats. If he falls short of the half-

way mark by about 25-50 members, he would find enough MPs willing to do

business with him. However, if BJPs tally stays closer to the results from the 15 th

Lok Sabha (116 seats) then the field will be open for re-alignment where Mr.

Modi will not feature as a candidate for Prime Ministership.


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It is however certain that an average Indian voter is disgusted by rampant

corruption of the congress government. It is also true that there is a general

disenchantment with professional politicians. Though parties will invest huge

sums of money in the next election, I have not doubt that the voter will spring a

surprise. People are looking for punishing the professional politicians and

bringing in people with new ideas and a record of blemish free public service, no

matter which party they belong to. As political parties step up their rhetoric and

regional parties revert to pre-election ambivalence, voters will have a hard choice

to make. However, at the advice of the Surpeme Court the election commission

has empowered the voters with a new weapon- the option of voting for None of

the above.

emerging patterns of voting inlok sabha elections

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