emerging technologies and moore’s law: prospects for the

Emerging TechnologiesEmerging Technologiesand Moore’s Law: and Moore’s Law:

Prospects for the FutureProspects for the FutureProspects for the FutureProspects for the Future

Mike MayberryMike MayberryDirector of Components ResearchDirector of Components Researchpp

VP, Technology VP, Technology and Manufacturing Group and Manufacturing Group Intel CorporationIntel Corporation

March, 2010March, 2010

Economics, Technology, & InnovationEconomics, Technology, & Innovation

““No exponential is forever but we can delay ‘forever’No exponential is forever but we can delay ‘forever’ ” ” ““No exponential is forever … but we can delay ‘forever’No exponential is forever … but we can delay ‘forever’.” .”

Technologies on DeckTechnologies on DeckTechnologies on DeckTechnologies on Deck

Opportunities for Future ProductsOpportunities for Future Products

Visible Horizon and BeyondVisible Horizon and Beyond

22

Moore’s Law Moore’s Law -- 19651965

“Reduced cost is one of the big attractions of integrated electronics, and the cost advantage continues toadvantage continues to increase as the technology evolves toward the production of larger and larger circuit functions on a single semiconductorsingle semiconductor substrate.”Electronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19 1965April 19, 1965

Integrated circuits = Parallel fabricationIntegrated circuits = Parallel fabrication

33

Parallel fabrication = Lower cost per functionParallel fabrication = Lower cost per function

Enabling Innovation Enabling Innovation andand Cost ReductionsCost Reductions

90nm300mm

130nm200mm

180nm200mm

250nm200mm

65nm300mm

45nm300mm

Twice the Twice the circuitry in the circuitry in the Same circuitry Same circuitry Option to design Option to design circuitry in the circuitry in the same space same space

(architectural (architectural innovation)innovation)

Same circuitry Same circuitry half the space half the space

(cost reduction)(cost reduction)

Option to design Option to design for optimal for optimal

performance/cost performance/cost OROR ==

Source: Intel

44

Key Economics: Scaling is BetterKey Economics: Scaling is Betterd l t ll i td l t ll i tunder almost all circumstancesunder almost all circumstances

If you can scale then If you can scale then Revenues drive R&DIf you can scale then If you can scale then you shouldyou should–– Compelling products command Compelling products command

Revenues drive R&Dwhich enables further scaling Create

compellingproductsCompelling products command Compelling products command

higher priceshigher prices–– Leading technology delivers Leading technology delivers

lower costslower costs

products

lower costslower costs–– Enables necessary investment Enables necessary investment

in R&Din R&DAffordable

R&D

Businesssize

matters

If you can’t scale then If you can’t scale then hope your competitors hope your competitors

’t ith’t ith Lower cost andcan’t eithercan’t eitherScaling gives lowercost per function

and improved capability

Lower cost andbetter capability

enables newproducts

55

Ability to make it work






66

“We’re limited by the wavelength of light”“We’re limited by the wavelength of light”

Resolved Rayleighcriteria

UnresolvedFeature >> Wavelength

Feature <<Wavelength

Feature = 0.6 x Wavelength / numerical aperture

77

Lithography Scaling LimitationsFrom Broers [1] IEDM Plenary Session 1980

Breaking through the WallBreaking through the WallBreaking through the WallBreaking through the Wall

1000New lens materials enabled

Optical

New lens materials enabledshorter wavelengths

365nm in mid 80s193 i i (145 ) t dWavelength 193nm immersion (145nm eqv) today

New mask techniques enabled100nm

Feature size

qsmaller features

0π

Alternate10 Conventional

EUV13.5nm

88

AlternatePhase Shift1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

10 ConventionalMask Structure

“We’re hitting the power wall”“We’re hitting the power wall”

R. Schmidt, IBM

We re hitting the power wallWe re hitting the power wall

12

14

Bipolar

CMOSIBM ES9000 Prescott

Jayhawk(dual)

R. Schmidt, IBMty

wat

ts/c

m2)

8

10

Fujitsu VP2000IBM GP

T-Rex

SquadronsMckinley

ensi

tH

eat

Flux(

w

4

6

IBM 3090S

NTT

Fujitsu M-780

IBM RY5

IBM GP

Pulsar

IBM RY7 Pentium 4

er D

eM

odule

H

2

4

Vacuum IBM 360IBM 370 IBM 3033

IBM 3090

CDC Cyber 205IBM 4381

IBM 3081Fujitsu M380

IBM RY6

ApacheMerced

IBM RY4Start of

Water Cooling

Pow

Year of Announcement

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

Vacuum Pentium II(DSIP)

99Source: IBM 2004

Energy per Transistor Continues to DropEnergy per Transistor Continues to Dropgy p pgy p p

101099

10101010

As the number As the number

1010

101000oror

101077

101088of transistors of transistors

goesgoes UP

1010--22

1010--11

1010

r tra

nsis

tor t

rans

isto

101066

1010

1010--44

1010--33

Ene

rgy

peE

nerg

y pe Energy per Energy per

transistor goestransistor goesDOWN

101044

101055

1010--66

1010--55

EE

S WSTS/D t t/I t lS WSTS/D t t/I t l

101033

’70’70 ’80’80 ’90’90 ’00’00

1010--77

1010

Source: WSTS/Dataquest/IntelSource: WSTS/Dataquest/Intel

~ 1 Million Factor Reduction In Energy/Transistor Over 30+ Years~ 1 Million Factor Reduction In Energy/Transistor Over 30+ Years

Energy Consumption is about System OptimizationEnergy Consumption is about System Optimization

5 years5 years

Estimated Annual Energy ConsumptionEstimated Annual Energy Consumption

Yea

r Y

ear

))

1015 1015 938938

um

ed p

er

um

ed p

er

r is

bet

ter)

r is

bet

ter)

GoingGoingM bilM bil

655655

KW

h C

onsu

KW

h C

onsu

(low

er(l

ow

er

229229

MobileMobile

Unmanaged PentiumUnmanaged Pentium®® D D

KK

Unmanaged PentiumUnmanaged Pentium®® D D Unmanaged Core™2 Duo Unmanaged Core™2 Duo Managed Core™2 Duo Processor Managed Core™2 Duo Processor Managed Core™2 Duo Processor Managed Core™2 Duo Processor

3838>26x Reduction>26x Reduction

Unmanaged PentiumUnmanaged Pentium®® D D Processor 945 with CRT displayProcessor 945 with CRT display

Unmanaged PentiumUnmanaged Pentium®® D D Processor 945 with LCD displayProcessor 945 with LCD display

Unmanaged Core™2 Duo Unmanaged Core™2 Duo Processor E6550 with LCD Processor E6550 with LCD

displaydisplay

Managed Core™2 Duo Processor Managed Core™2 Duo Processor E6550 with LCD displayE6550 with LCD display

Managed Core™2 Duo Processor Managed Core™2 Duo Processor T9400 mobile platformT9400 mobile platform

Energy savings comes from combination of Energy savings comes from combination of

1111Performance tests/ratings are provided assuming specific computer systems and/or components and reflect the approximate perfoPerformance tests/ratings are provided assuming specific computer systems and/or components and reflect the approximate performarmance of Intel products nce of Intel products as measured by those tests. Any difference in system hardware or software design or configuration may affect actual performanas measured by those tests. Any difference in system hardware or software design or configuration may affect actual performance.ce. This data may vary from This data may vary from

other material generated for specific marketing requests. other material generated for specific marketing requests.

Energy savings comes from combination of Energy savings comes from combination of transistor scaling and architectural innovationstransistor scaling and architectural innovations

“We’re running out of atoms”“We’re running out of atoms”We re running out of atomsWe re running out of atoms

Polysilicon Gate Electrode

1.2 nm SiO2

3-4 atoms thick

Silicon Substrate

1212

New Materials and New FabricationNew Materials and New FabricationNew Materials and New FabricationNew Materials and New Fabrication

10

100

ge

SiON/Poly 65nm 45nm node

0.1

1

te L

eaka

SiON/Poly 65nm

0 001

0.01

0.1

aliz

ed G

a

0 00001

0.0001

0.001

Nor

ma

HiK+MG 45nm

NMOS PMOS

HiK+MG 45nm

0.00001-1.2 -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

VGS (V)

45 nm HK+MG provides >25x gate leakage reduction

3.0nm High3.0nm High--kk

1313

The Timing of Research Is Not Always The Timing of Research Is Not Always PredictablePredictableBut a Commitment to Research is RequiredBut a Commitment to Research is RequiredBut a Commitment to Research is RequiredBut a Commitment to Research is Required

90’s 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

StrainedStrainedSiliconSilicon

Development ‘01- ’02SiliconSilicon 01 02

Metal Materials Gat

2nd gen ‘051st gen ’03 3rd gen ‘07

HighHigh--k Metalk MetalGateGate

Metal gates

research2001

Materials selected

2000Development

‘05- ’06

e

High-k

Silicon

Demo ‘03 Prod ‘07

Intel 45nm Intel 45nm HighHigh--k Metal Gatek Metal Gategg

Ten Ten Years, Millions Years, Millions of Hoursof HoursDead Ends, Failures Dead Ends, Failures

1414Source: IntelSource: Intel

Unwavering FocusUnwavering Focus

Meanwhile despite these worries Meanwhile despite these worries I ti ti d d t idI ti ti d d t idInnovations continued on product sideInnovations continued on product side

Personal computing replacing shared computersPersonal computing replacing shared computersPersonal computing replacing shared computersPersonal computing replacing shared computersPortable computingPortable computingConnected computers sharing data InternetConnected computers sharing data InternetConnected computers, sharing data, InternetConnected computers, sharing data, InternetWireless connectivityWireless connectivitySmaller form factors, pocket computersSmaller form factors, pocket computersSpecial purpose devicesSpecial purpose devicesp p pp p p……

1515






1616

Steady Technology Cadence

TECHNOLOGY GENERATION

MANUFACTURING

45nm2007

65nm2005

32nm2009

130nm2001

90nm2003

MANUFACTURING

1717

Product Cadence for Sustained LeadershipProduct Cadence for Sustained Leadership

TICK Pentium® D, Xeon™, Core™ processorRS

RS

TOCK Core 2 processor, Xeon processor2 Y

EA

2 Y

EA 65nm

RS

RS TICK PENRYN Family

TOCK NEHALEM2 Y

EAR

2 Y

EAR

45nm

y

SS TICK WESTMERE

TOCK SANDY BRIDGE2 Y

EARS

2 Y

EARS

32nm

TICK WESTMERE

1818

TOCK SANDY BRIDGE22

All product information and dates are preliminary and subject to change without notice

So What ?

Generational benefits Generational benefits don’t just add,

they multiplythey multiply

1919

Energy Efficiency ImprovementEnergy Efficiency Improvement(S P f F i )(S P f F i )

184 single core servers2005

(Same Performance Footprint)(Same Performance Footprint)

2009 21 Intel® Xeon® 5500 b d 2005 2009 based servers

Annual Energy Costs

92%Up to

8 monthUp to

9X 92%Estimated Reduction

8 monthReturn on Investment

9XServer Reduction

Source: Intel estimates as of Nov 2008. Performance comparison using SPECjbb2005 bops (business operations per second). Results have been estimated based on internal Intel analysis and are provided for informational purposes only. Any difference in system hardware or software design

or configuration may affect actual performance. For detailed calculations, configurations and assumptions refer to the legal information slide in backup.

2020

New Fabrication enables New Product OpportunitiesNew Fabrication enables New Product Opportunities

CoreCoreL3L3CoreCoreL3L3CoreCoreL3L3

Core and Core and UncoreUncorePower Gates are ONPower Gates are ON

Core Power Gates OFFCore Power Gates OFFAnd And UncoreUncore retentionretention

Both Core and Both Core and UncoreUncorePower Gates are OFF Power Gates are OFF

2121

Westmere 6 cores, Infrared imaging showing advanced power management

The Opportunity for Data Center EfficiencyThe Opportunity for Data Center Efficiency

Projected Data Center Energy Use Under Five Scenarios Projected Data Center Energy Use Under Five Scenarios

120120

140140

Historical Historical

2.9% Of Projected 2.9% Of Projected Total U.S. Electricity UseTotal U.S. Electricity Use

100100

120120

/ ye

ar)

/ ye

ar)

TrendsTrendsCurrent Current

Efficiency Efficiency TrendsTrends

Improved Improved

1.5% Of Total US.1.5% Of Total US.Electricity UsageElectricity Usage

6060

8080

ns

(kW

h /

ns

(kW

h / Improved Improved

OperationOperation

B t P tiB t P ti

0.8% Of Total US0.8% Of Total USElectricity UsageElectricity Usage

2020

4040

Bill

ioBill

io Best PracticeBest Practice

StateState--ofof--thethe--ArtArt

20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009 20102010 2011201100

Forecast

2222Source: EPA Report to Congress on Server and Data Center Energy Efficiency; August 2, 2007

Technology Advances Enable Technology Advances Enable BothBoth Bette P od cts and a Wide RangeBette P od cts and a Wide Range

45nm45nm65nm65nm

BothBoth Better Products and a Wider RangeBetter Products and a Wider Range

45nm45nm

+25%

65nm65nm

10X

y Po

wer

8 Core

Sta

nd-b

y

Dual Core

Quad Core

Log

Single Core

2323

Transistor Performance (switching speed)

Technology Advances Enable Technology Advances Enable BothBoth Bette P od cts and a Wide RangeBette P od cts and a Wide Range

45nm45nm L kL k65nm65nm

BothBoth Better Products and a Wider RangeBetter Products and a Wider Range

45nm45nm

+25%

LeakageLeakage

1x1x

65nm65nm

Server

10X

0.1x0.1x

Desktop

L t

Intel® Atom™

00Laptop

0.01x0.01x

Netbook0.001x0.001x

Netbook

2424


Extending Transistor Advantage to Extending Transistor Advantage to SoC’sSoC’sF t T i t d B tt P P fF t T i t d B tt P P f

32nm32nm45nm45nm L kL k65nm65nm

Faster Transistors and Better Power PerformanceFaster Transistors and Better Power Performance

32nm32nm45nm45nm LeakageLeakage

1x1x+25%

65nm65nm

0.1x0.1x

10X

10X

+22%

00

0.01x0.01xIA

32nmSoC

0.001x0.001x

2525


Implementing a Platform on a ChipImplementing a Platform on a ChipImplementing a Platform on a ChipImplementing a Platform on a Chip

High Speed Memory Interface

IA CoreCache Memory

Memory Interface

eed

rfac

e

Med

ia

nte

rfac

e

SRAM/RFHigh Perf /Low Power

Logic Transistors

Hig

h S

pe

eria

l In

te

asic

I/O

I

Gfx/Security/ Video/AudioInductors Analog/ HV I/O Transistors

Display Interface

Se

Ba /

HandheldsHandheldsEmbeddedEmbeddedCECE

E

B

Precision Linear Capacitors Decap

n+

n-well

n+ n+ n+ n+

Port 1Vbias= VgatePort 2

Vbias= 0 V

Single Ended Varactor

n+

n-well

n+ n+ n+ n+


Vbias= 0 V


n+

n-well

n+ n+ n+ n+


Vbias= 0 V


n+

n-well

n+ n+ n+ n+


Vbias= 0 V


DiodesVertical BJT

E

B

LincroftLincroftJasper ForestJasper ForestSodavilleSodaville

C VaractorsC

2626






2727

Industry R & D is Increasing Industry R & D is Increasing ––in dollars and as a percent of revenuesin dollars and as a percent of revenues

40

in dollars and as a percent of revenuesin dollars and as a percent of revenues

Industry R & D $ BillionIndustry R & D $ Billion

30

20

10How toHow to

0

How toHow tofabricatefabricate

ProcessProcessSoftwareSoftwareProductProduct

ForecastForecast

2828

OtherOtherHardwareHardwareR & DR & D

Source: IBS, Intel

Possible Product PossibilitiesPossible Product PossibilitiesPossible Product PossibilitiesPossible Product Possibilities

Cloud computingCloud computingCloud computingCloud computing–– Solving grand challenge problemsSolving grand challenge problems–– Enable access anytime anywhereEnable access anytime anywherey yy y

LifeLife--like computinglike computing–– Immersive experiencesImmersive experiencesImmersive experiencesImmersive experiences–– Context awareContext aware

HeterogenousHeterogenous networksnetworksHeterogenousHeterogenous networksnetworks–– Computing in networkComputing in network–– Integration with bio and sensorsIntegration with bio and sensorsIntegration with bio and sensorsIntegration with bio and sensors

2929

Potential Energy Savings Potential Energy Savings Outside Outside of Information and of Information and Communications Communications Technology Technology Communications Communications Technology Technology

7,0007,000

Figure ES-1. Future Electricity Scenarios for the U.S.

6,0006,000Frozen Efficiency Case 1.896

5,0005,000Reference Case

BillionkWh

Bill

ion k

Wh

4,0004,0001.242BillionkWhSemiconductor Enabled Efficiency Scenario

B

20062006 20102010 20142014 20182018 20222022 20262026 203020303,0003,000

3030Source: ACEEE Report Number E094, May 2009 Semiconductor Technologies: The Potential to Revolutionize U.S. Energy Productivity

A truly Smart Grid Requires that Microprocessor t u y S a t G d equ es t at c op ocessointelligence be added throughout the network

3131

High Performance Computing Segment Needs High Performance Computing Segment Needs Decades of Performance IncreasesDecades of Performance IncreasesDecades of Performance IncreasesDecades of Performance Increases

Massive Massive Weather Weather PredictionPrediction

FLOPSFLOPS

Massive Massive computing computing power to power to

solve complex solve complex ZetaZeta

Genomics Genomics ResearchResearch

ExaExa

ppproblemsproblems

Medical Medical ImagingImagingPetaPeta

TeraTera

GigaGiga

3232

19901990 20102010 20302030

ForecastForecast

Source: Intel Investor Meeting 2009

Core Computing Segment Will Need to Core Computing Segment Will Need to Increase Performance to Support New UsagesIncrease Performance to Support New Usages

HighHigh--

Increase Performance to Support New UsagesIncrease Performance to Support New Usages

HighHigh--performance, performance,

lifelife--like like computing computing 3D Interactions3D Interactions

FLOPSFLOPS

computing computing fully fully

integrated integrated with your with your

Computational Computational ModelingModelingSensor Based PresenceSensor Based Presence

Immersive User InterfaceImmersive User Interface

PhotoPhoto--realistic 3D Renderingrealistic 3D Rendering yysurroundingssurroundings

Natural Language ProcessingNatural Language Processing

3D Modeling3D Modeling Smart CarsSmart Cars

HighHigh--definition Audio, definition Audio, Video, AnimationVideo, Animation

RealReal--Time TranslationTime TranslationTeraTera

Video EditingVideo Editing

Touch Touch ScreensScreens

Basic VideoBasic Video

Smart HomesSmart Homes

GigaGiga Basic VideoBasic Video

Photo EditingPhoto Editing

GigaGiga

3333

20002000 20102010 20202020

ForecastForecastSource: Intel Investor Meeting 2009

Perceiving the User to Make Interfaces BetterPerceiving the User to Make Interfaces BetterPerceiving the User to Make Interfaces BetterPerceiving the User to Make Interfaces Better

User Internet

userinteraction

Clienttagged

datainteraction

worldinteraction

World

3434

Small Computing Segment Needs Small Computing Segment Needs More and More Performance At Low PowerMore and More Performance At Low Power

Anytime Anytime Anytime, Anytime, anywhere,anywhere,

personalized,personalized,contextcontext--aware,aware,

RealReal--time, 3Dtime, 3D--VideoVideoAugmented RealityAugmented Reality

FLOPSFLOPS

environmentalenvironmentalcomputingcomputing

Natural Natural Language Language

RealReal--Time Time Language Language TranslationTranslation

GigaGiga

HighHigh--definition Audio, definition Audio, Video & AnimationVideo & Animation

T h T h

Visual Search Visual Search -- Still RecognitionStill Recognition

ProcessingProcessingGigaGiga

VideoVideoMobile TVMobile TV

GamingGaming

Video PresenceVideo Presence

SMSSMS

MMXMMX

CameraCamerass

EE--mailmail

Web Web BrowserBrowser

Touch Touch screensscreens

MegaMega Music & RadioMusic & Radio

gg

VoiceVoice

3535

19951995 20102010 20252025

ForecastForecastSource: Intel Investor Meeting 2009

Speech Interfaces made Better with AudioSpeech Interfaces made Better with Audio--Visual FusionVisual Fusionpp

Speech recognition works, butSpeech recognition works, butfails in noisy environments (mobile)fails in noisy environments (mobile)

Source: Silsbee & Bovik IEEE Speech & Audio

3636

Source: Silsbee & Bovik, IEEE Speech & Audio






3737

Steady Technology Cadence


MANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH

65nm2005

45nm2007

32nm2009

22nm2011

15nm2013

11nm2015

8nm2017

Beyond2020


3838

“We’re running out of atoms”45nm nodeTake 2Take 2


45nm node


MANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT

65nm2005

45nm2007

32nm2009

22nm2011 60 atoms across

made by top-downMANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT made by top downexcept high-K

xx BByy

xx

Crafting Films with Atomic Layer Deposition

St 1St 1

AA

St 3St 3

AA

xxyy

xx

AA AABB

Step 1Step 1 Step 3Step 3

3939

Step 2Step 2 Step 4Step 4

New Materials: Enabling the Future of New Materials: Enabling the Future of Silicon TechnologySilicon TechnologySilicon TechnologySilicon Technology

4040

IIIIII--V Materials have Higher MobilityV Materials have Higher Mobility

105105

Relative mobility10-1710-17

Relative power-performance

*

104

10

ITY

[cm

2 /Vs]

InGaAs104

10

ITY

[cm

2 /Vs]

InGaAs10-19

10

WID

TH [J

s/m

]

Si MOSFETs10-19

10

WID

TH [J

s/m

]

Si MOSFETs

103

TRO

N M

OB

ILI

30X Improvement103

TRO

N M

OB

ILI

30X Improvement 10-21

RG

YxD

ELA

Y/W

10-21

RG

YxD

ELA

Y/W

10ximprovement

5x1011 1012 1013 2x1013102EL

ECT

SHEET CARRIER DENSITY [cm-2]

Silicon

5x1011 1012 1013 2x1013102EL

ECT

SHEET CARRIER DENSITY [cm-2]

Silicon

10 100 1000 1000010-23

ENER

GATE LENGTH [nm]

InGaAs QWFETs

10 100 1000 1000010-23

ENER

GATE LENGTH [nm]

InGaAs QWFETs

[ ][ ]

R. Chau et al, CSIC (2005)

4141

Fabrication of QWFETFabrication of QWFETwith Highwith High--KK

Fabrication challengesFabrication challengesFabrication challengesFabrication challenges–– Addition of two more unique Addition of two more unique

materials to the stack (7 total)materials to the stack (7 total)–– Molecular Beam Molecular Beam EpitaxyEpitaxy & & Molecular Beam Molecular Beam EpitaxyEpitaxy & &

Atomic Layer Deposition usedAtomic Layer Deposition used–– Atomic deposition precision Atomic deposition precision

needed across five critical layersneeded across five critical layers

4242

in partnership with IQE

Designing Materials with Smooth GrainsDesigning Materials with Smooth Grains

Polymer MG

D

Source: A. De Silva, et al. Adv. Mater. 2008

Molecular glass+ Higher sensitivity at same resolution- Lower mechanical strength (currently)

Polymer Blend+ Mature materials platform

- Larger individual components

4343

Need to engineer materials with components below 1nm

Our limit to visibility goes out ~10 yearsOur limit to visibility goes out ~10 years

15nm2013

11nm2015

8nm2017

Beyond2020

TECHNOLOGY GENERATION45nm2007

32nm2009

22nm2011


Carbon Nanotube~1nm diameter

QW III-V DeviceGraphene

1 atom thick

5nm

Nanowire10 atoms across

Sili l tti i 0 5 h d t i i d d i Sili l tti i 0 5 h d t i i d d i

4444

Silicon lattice is ~ 0.5nm, hard to imagine good devices Silicon lattice is ~ 0.5nm, hard to imagine good devices smaller than 10 lattices across smaller than 10 lattices across –– reached in 2020reached in 2020

Beyond 2020 and possible futuresBeyond 2020 and possible futuresBeyond 2020 and possible futuresBeyond 2020 and possible futuresConventional fabrication architectures continueConventional fabrication architectures continue–– Individual steps continue as 2D layersIndividual steps continue as 2D layers–– More and more layers stacked to give increasing functionMore and more layers stacked to give increasing function

Bilayer graphene structureTh ti ll >10000 l

Graphene layers can couple together and create a quantum condensate

High resolutionTEM of graphene Theoretically >10000x less powerand create a quantum condensateTEM of graphene

4545

Source: M. Gilbert et.al J Comput Electron (2009)


Increasing use of heterogeneous technologies and Increasing use of heterogeneous technologies and l t bi t h l il t bi t h l inovel ways to combine technologiesnovel ways to combine technologies

–– Electronics fabricated conventionally but combined with bio Electronics fabricated conventionally but combined with bio interface grown bottomsinterface grown bottoms--upup

–– Eliminating, reducing cost of interfacesEliminating, reducing cost of interfaces

4646Source: NRI, SWAN review 2009


Increasing use of heterogeneous technologies and Increasing use of heterogeneous technologies and l t bi t h l il t bi t h l inovel ways to combine technologiesnovel ways to combine technologies

–– Electronics fabricated conventionally but combined with bio Electronics fabricated conventionally but combined with bio interface grown bottomsinterface grown bottoms--upup

–– Eliminating, reducing cost of interfacesEliminating, reducing cost of interfaces

NonNon--binary or alternate state computationbinary or alternate state computationf b l l ff b l l f–– Same fabrication complexity, more value per functionSame fabrication complexity, more value per function

4747

ConclusionsConclusions

Moore’s Law is not a law of nature, it is an Moore’s Law is not a law of nature, it is an ,,expectation of continued innovationexpectation of continued innovation

We expect to continue through focused research We expect to continue through focused research We expect to continue through focused research, We expect to continue through focused research, rapid development, investment in productionrapid development, investment in production

Scaling research is increasingly about materials Scaling research is increasingly about materials Scaling research is increasingly about materials Scaling research is increasingly about materials research, solving problems brings opportunitiesresearch, solving problems brings opportunities

New product opportunities will arise from New product opportunities will arise from New product opportunities will arise from New product opportunities will arise from continued advances in integration, connectivitycontinued advances in integration, connectivity

4848

Closing ThoughtClosing ThoughtClosing ThoughtClosing Thought

Thomas Edison: Thomas Edison: Opportunity is missed by Opportunity is missed by Opportunity is missed by Opportunity is missed by most people because it is most people because it is dressed in overalls and dressed in overalls and dressed in overalls and dressed in overalls and

looks like work.looks like work.

4949Source: National Archives and Records Administration

Thank YouThank You

5050

emerging technologies and moore’s law: prospects for the

Documents