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TRANSCRIPT
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
26th – 27th February, 2018
Hyderabad, Telangana
Dr. Nirmaljeet Singh Kalsi, IASBE IIT Roorkee, M Tech IIT Delhi, PhD Thapar University
Additional Chief Secretary
Department of Home Affairs and Justice, Governance Reforms and Public Grievances
Government of Punjab, Chandigarh
National Conference on E-Governance 2018
TECHNOLOGY HAS BEEN
ONE OF THE MAJOR
FACTORS IN INNOVATION
CHANGE AND DISRUPTIONS
IN THE LAST 250 YEARS
Installation period Deployment Period
Institutional
recomposition
De
gre
eo
fte
ch
no
log
ica
lm
atu
rity
an
dm
ark
et
satu
rati
on
time
Crash 2000-2008Big bang Intel 4004 1971 Next big bangSource: Carlota Perez
Techno-economic
split
IRRUPTION
Financial Bubble
Time
FRENZY
Golden Age
SYNERGY
MATURITY
Technology Adoption Life Cycle –The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
EMOTIONS ANDANALYTICAL THINKING FEELINGS
Mainframe
1947
Minicomputer
1965
PC
1981 1995
Internet Smartphone
2007
The Shortening Waves
INSTALLATION
PERIOD
TURNING
POINTDEPLOYMENT
Age of
Information1971
Internet mania and
financial casino2000 & 2008
The Industrial
Revolution1771 Canal mania 1793-97 The Great British Leap
Age of Steam
and Railways
Age of Steel
and Electricity
1829 Railway mania 1848-50 The Victorian Boom
1875Infrastructure
bubbles1890-95
The Belle Époque (Europe)
Progressive Era (USA)
Age of Oil and
Automobile1908
The Roaring
Twenties1929-33 & 43 Post-war Golden Age
The New Golden Age?
Source: Carlota Perez
Technological Revolution
7
Innovation
Disruptive TechnologySustaining Technology
Evolutionary - An innovation that
improves a product in an existing market in
ways that customers are expecting.
Red Oceans - commodities
Revolutionary - An innovation that
creates a new market by allowing customers
to solve a problem in a radically new way.
May not be affordable enough to be
disruptive
An innovation that creates a new
(an unexpected) market by
applying a different set of values.
Affordable so the impact is
major
The Law of Disappearing
TechnologyWhen some technique is mastered,
it will “disappear” as something
obvious and trivial,
and
other more useful things are
built on top of it
TECHNOLOGICAL
DISRUPTIONS ARE THE
NEW NORMS RATHER
THAN EXCEPTIONS
Any technology that is going to have
significant impact over the next 10
years is already at least 10 years old
Source:http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.htm
The 10/10 Rule
Technology is ever evolving – and so are the businesses
Source: Alcatel-Lucent
Pre-internet
Internet ofCONTENT
Internet ofSERVICES
Internet ofPEOPLE
Internet ofTHINGS
+ IPnetworks
+ IT platforms& services
+ devices & apps
+ sensors,more devices& tags,big data
“SOCIALMEDIA”
“WEB 2.0”“WWW”“HUMAN
TOHUMAN”
•Fixed &mobiletelephony
•SMS
• Information
•Entertainment
•Web Sites
•…
•e-productivity
•e-commerce
•E-Office
•Online services
•…
•Skype
•YouTube
•…
• Identification, tracking, monitoring, metering, …
•Automation, actuation, payment, …
•…
“MACHINETO
MACHINE”
+ ambientcontext, data semantics
Internet of
EVERYHING
+ Process, People, Things, Big data
“WEB 3.0”
Cloud + Virtualization
Pervasive Connectivity Geospatial Visualization
Social Networks Web 2.0 – 3.0
A clearly visible trend - The Accelerating Emerging
Convergence of Technologies…
Internet of Things M2M - IoE
Advanced Analytics BIG DATA
13Courtesy: Jones Lang LaSalle
Mobile Platform
Social Networks
Cyber Security
TODAY OUR
DEVICES ARE
GATEWAYS
TO THE
INTERNET/
CLOUD
The Physical blends with the Digital
Augmented reality – overlaying digital over the physical
Virtual Reality surgery
Gaming, instructions, design, prototyping etc.has fundamentally changed
CAN WE
LOOK FORWARD
5-10 YEARS
TO SEE THE UPCOMING
FUTURE
CHANGES
Technologies Already Available Commercially
• Drones
• Google Glasses
Public
Safety
Traffic
Management
Energy
Management
Bus
Water
Managem
ent
Public Health
Tram
Train
Metro
Subway
Remote
Monitoring
Fitness
Machines
IoT/ IoE End-user Applications Everywhere – Smart City Touches Differente
Industry Vertcles
Logistics &
Networking
Medical &
Healthcare
Transportation & Mobility
Public Transport
Railways
Smart Metering
Air Conditions
Elderly Living
Waste
Management
Environmental
Smart Grids
First Responders
Green Houses Sports
Medicine
Cool
Chain
Monitoring
Telematics
Reverse
Vending
Industrial
Automation &
Process Control
Ticketing
Smart
Buildings
Water Supply,
Sanitation & Irrigation
Signage
Automatic Vehicle Location
Remote Monitoring
Retail &
Vending
Energy
Monitoring
Medical
Elderly Living
Smart City
Smart Building
Green Houses
Cool Chain
Monitoring
Agriculture
Retail
Public Safety, Security
& Surveillance
Chemicals, Materials
& Food
Minerals & Mining
AutomotiveAerospace & Defense
Measurement &
Instrumentation
Energy & Power
SystemsInformation &
Communication
Technologies
Consumer Technologies
Markets & Submarket:
Enabling Technology
Embedded Cellular M2M
Modules
Connection and service
Network Connectivity
Network Security
Integration Services
Application Services
Connected Device
Platforms (CDP)
Application Platforms
Application Enablement
Platforms, AEP and
Application Development
Platforms, ADP
Smart City
Machme Vis1on I Optical
Amb1ent
Electric I M
Motion I Veloc•ty I D•splacement
• -Q-*-
Temperature
I Moisture
Leaks I Levels
Force 1 Load I Torque
Stra1n I Pressure
AcoustiC I Sound I Vibration
Flow Chemical I Gas
All rights reser'Ved
For a Smart City We Need to Create A Digital Nervous System through Network of Sensors & Actuators
90% of the population will have Unlimited and Free Data Storage by 2019
• Deleting files to make room for files is going tobecome a thing of the past.
• In fewer than three years, about 90% of people willhave unlimited and free data storage that willultimately be ad-supported, according to thereport.
• We are already seeing some companies offer cheapor completely free service. For example, GooglePhotos already offers unlimited storage for photosand Amazon will let you store an unlimited amountof whatever you want for just $60 a year.
E-skin Wearables and implants Beyond 2019-20 Generating Huge Real-time Medical Data
• The future belongs to digestible and wearablesensors that can work like a thin e-skin.
• Biometric tattoos such as Viva LNK’s eSkinTattoo can transmit medical information discreetly.
• RFID or Radio Frequency Identification chips canbe implanted under the skin and serve as anidentification device.
• These sensors will measure all important healthparameters and vital signs from temperature, andblood biomarkers to neurological symptoms 24hours a day transmitting data to the cloud andsending alerts to medical systems when a stroke ishappening real time.
• It will call the ambulance itself and sends all therelated data immediately.
Star Trek type Universal Translators – 2019-20Already tested for English to Chinese
• The day is near when two people speakingdifferent languages can communicate with oneanother in their own voices but in languagesthey don't know or understand.
The 3D Printer Organs (Complex) and first 3D printed car will be in production by 2021 - 2022.
• 3D printers are increasingly becoming more powerful,capable of printing complex objects from all kinds ofmaterials. Many car companies are already using thetechnology to create prototypes and to more efficientlycreate specific parts of a vehicle.
• Most recently, Audi showed off a miniature sized vehicle itcreated using its metal printers.
• But the automotive startup Local Motors is aiming to beginproduction on a full size car using 3D printing in the nextfew years. The company has already created severalprototypes, but will begin taking orders for its productionmodel (shown above) in 2016.
• Non-critical applications included dental implants andexoskeletons to assist with mobility and joint movement.
1 Trillion Sensors (150 sensors per person) will be Connected to the Internet by 2022.
• Welcome to the internet of things (IoT).
• As the cost of sensors continues to decline andcomputing power increases, all kinds ofdevices will increasingly become connected tothe internet.
• 10% of the world's population will be wearing clothes connected to the internet by 2022.
• And as early as 2022, its predicted 1 trillionsensors will be connected
• According to the report “every (physical)product could be connected to ubiquitouscommunication infrastructure, and sensorseverywhere will allow people to fully perceivetheir environment.”
The first government to replace its census with big-data technologies by 2023.
• As collecting, managing, andunderstanding data becomes easier,governments may move away from oldmethods of collecting information andbegin to rely more on big datatechnologies to automate programs.
• Some countries, including Canada, havealready began experimenting withpulling back on traditional censusmethods, however, no country hascompletely replaced the system yet.
10% of Regular Reading Glasses will be Connected to the Internet by 2023.
• Interacting with the world around youwill become a lot different whenconnected glasses become morecommon.
• Connected eye wear will becomecommon by 2023.
• The technology will allow the wearer tohave direct access to internetapplications will enable an enhanced oraugmented reality experience.
• Eye tracking technology will also enablethem to control the interface with theirvision.
80% of People on Earth (including the third world) will have a Digital Presence Online by 2023
• More people will gain a digital identityas internet connectivity becomesmore prevalent.
• According to the report “...digital life isbecoming inextricably linked with aperson’s physical life,” and will onlycontinue to grow in importance.
• Companies like Facebook and Googleare pushing this effort ahead withvarious projects to connect remoteparts of the world to the internet.
90% of the Global Population will have a Supercomputer of today in their pocket by 2023.
• Around the world people are increasinglyusing their smartphones more than PCs,and in developing nations people arebecoming connected to the internet forthe first time via their mobile phone.
• As smartphones gain computing powerand the price continues to fall, the speedof adoption will only accelerate.
• The number of global smartphonesubscribers has reached more than 50%penetration by 2017 and
• By 2023, about 90% of the populationwill be connected via smart phone.
Access to the Internet will become an agreed Basic Human Right by 2024
• By 2024 most of the world will have regularinternet access.
• Tech giants like Google and Facebook arecurrently coming up with creative solutionsto connect the remaining 3.5 billion peoplewho don’t have access to the internet.
• Facebook’s Internet.org is using drones tobeam internet down to Earth fromsatellites and
• Google’s Project Loon is using giantballoons that float in the atmosphere toconnect remote parts of the world.
Globally, more trips will be made using car sharing programs than privately owned cars by 2025.
• Autonomous cars have the potentialto dramatically increase safety,decrease emissions, and changemodels of transportation.
• Tech companies like Google andUber, as well as traditionalautomakers like Toyota, GeneralMotors, and Volkswagen are allcurrently working on self-drivingcars.
• It will be 2026 before the 10% of allcars are driverless in the US.
The first Implantable Mobile Phone will become commercially available in 2025.
• Being attached to your smartphone may take ona whole new meaning by 2023.
• In seven years the first implantable mobilephone will become commercially available.
• The device will potentially be able to track aperson’s health more accurately, while alsoallowing them to communicate thoughts viabrainwaves or signal instead of verbally,according to the report.
• Implantable health devices, like pacemakers andcochlear implants, have already become moremainstream. And it's likely we'll see morewidespread adoption of implantabletechnologies emerge before 2025.
Digital Currencies, The Block Chain Technology by 2025
• The blockchain is essentially a shared publicledger that everyone can inspect and no singleperson controls.
• By 2023 its predicted that the first government willcollect taxes using the Blockchain technology
• 10% of global gross domestic product ($87Ttoday) will be stored using blockchain technology2027.
• The blockchain technology, though, holds promisebeyond Bitcoin e.g. for public databases, like titlesto land or other goods.
• According to recent article from the Economist, theNASDAQ is even about to start using the technology torecord trading in securities of private companies.
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37
Artificial intelligence 30% of corporate audits will be performed by AI 2025The first AI machine will join a corporate BoD 2026
• IBM Watson has a potentials as huge opportunitiesin medicine. Watson will assist physicians ineveryday medical decision-making,.
• Watson has the capacity to read 40 milliondocuments in 15 seconds and to suggest the mostfitting the rapies.
• Atomwise aims to reduce the costs of medicinedevelopment by using supercomputers to predict,in advance, which potential medicines will work,and which won’t.
• Google Deepmind Health is used to mine the dataof medical records in order to provide better andfaster health services..
The first fully IoE enabled Smart City (>50,000 people) will become Fully Operational by 2026.
• Infrastructure will also become moreconnected in the future, giving way to moresmart cities.
• Everything from the sidewalk and streets tothe traffic lights and buildings will beconnected to the internet.
• Smart cities, like a smart home, will beautomated capable of managing their“energy, material flows, logistics andtraffic”.
• The evolution of connected infrastructurewill bring about the first city with apopulation of 50,000 people and no trafficlights by 2026.
Google Brain - Create Digital Selves Based on neurological information upload our minds to a computer
and live on in a digital form
• Ian Pearson wrote in his book, YouTomorrow, about the possibility that oneday we will be able to create digital selvesbased on neurological information.
• It means we could upload our minds to acomputer and live on in a digital form.
• As Google hired Ray Kurzweil to createthe ultimate artificial intelligencecontrolled brain, this opportunity shouldnot be so far away.
• We might have been looking for thesecret of immortality in the wrong places.
Avatars, Surrogates, Robotics
• You can be yourself and interact in the world in afairly low-tech way while allowing asurrogate, avatar or robot to live your online and techlife for you.
• The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) hasbudgeted to create avatars that will act as surrogates for real, livesoldiers.
• While avatars and surrogates were once the stuff of games, virtualreality and computer interfacing, they are taking on more and moreactive roles as replacements for living breathing humans. Or, arethey enhancements for humans?
• Fully-realized robotic machines have become more and morewidespread in medical technology and scientific development, bothin the lab and in hospitals, enabling those with paralysis to movelimbs, for instance.
• "Living" life with 'second life' surrogates is likely to becomemore and more common every day for those of us in lessspecialized fields, too.
Big Data & Data Analytics – with all its pros and cons • Data and the machines and algorithms used to manage and make sense of it could largely replace
independent decision-making -- either large or small -- and it is happening at such a speed that it's sometimes hard to remember the data isn't in control.
• People still control the data, but just who has this control and what they do with it will become an ongoing challenge
43
Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Deep Learning, Deep Neural networks
Deep Web and dark Web Technologies
• Common Web
• Surface Web
• Deep Web
• Dark Web
46
Deep Web, Dark Networks, Crypto Currencies, Organised Crime, Espionage and Cyber Terrorism• we are becoming a bigger collective target for
the bad guys.
• While our data puts us all "out there" in many ways,that same data enables those involved in dark networksand activities to get lost and take on false, covertidentities in order to plan bigger and bigger attacks.
• Anonymous is dark group involved in "hactivism,“found its way into sensitive stores of information fromthe likes of the FBI, Visa and Mastercard, andgovernment Web sites from the U.K. to China, causinglarge-scale, disabling computer terror.
• It functions as a collective of many individuals andspreads its login and computer activities thin enough tolead authorities in too many directions to track, and itsacts target everything from politics to commerce.
Small modular nuclear reactors mid-2020s to the mid-2030s
• Small modular reactors (SMRs) are a new class ofsmaller, cheaper, safer and more adaptable nuclearpower plants that gain widespread adoption from themid-2020s to the mid-2030s.
• They are defined by the International Atomic EnergyAgency as generating an electric output of less than300 MW, reaching as low as 10 MW for some of thesmallest versions. This is compared to larger,conventional reactors, with1 to 2 GW.
• Electricity was first generated from nuclear energy in1951, during tests of an experimental reactor in thehigh desert of Idaho. The original output wasestimated at 45 kW. In subsequent decades, reactorsgrew much larger, with outputs reaching the gigawattscale.
Challenges of Handling the New Technology
• Policy Framework
• Legal Framework
• Regulatory Framework
• Monitoring, Policing and Investigation Framework
• HRD and Capacity Building Framework – Government, Legislators, Judiciary
• R&D and Innovation Framework
• Framework for adoption in the Government
IS THE GOVERNMENT
READY FOR THESE
TECHNOLOGY TIPPING
POINTS
WE WILL REACH BY IN
NEXT 5 TO 10 YEARS??........
TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION
BUSINESS DISRUPTORS
DESIGN FOR MILLENNIALS
THE FUTURE IS
FAR MORE CHALLENGING,
FULL OF INNOVATIONS
IN MULTIDICIPLINARY AREAS
AND BUSINESS DISRUPTIONS
BOUNDRIES BETWEEN
THE SUBJECTS AND
ENGINEERING
DISCIPLINES ARE
BLURRING
FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTIN PEOPLE’S BEHAVIOUR
FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE INPROVISIONING SERVICES
Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo
FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
AVAILING AND
CONSUMING
SERVICES
Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo
FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
CONNECTING
PEOPLE,
BUSINESSES
AND
GOVERNMENTS
THE FUTURE IS
FAR MORE CHALLENGING,
FULL OF INNOVATIONS
IN MULTIDICIPLINARY AREAS
AND BUSINESS DISRUPTIONS
59
Thank You
The business plans of the next 10,000
startups are easy to forecast:Define purpose of your life
Take X (Any Existing business) and
add AI/ Machine Learning/ Neural Networks
add Cloud Computing Resources
add Mobile/ Smartphone Platform
add Social Media /Networks
add Big Data Analytics/ BI
add oppen source/ open data apps
“The Citizen Services ideas for the next 10,000
successful services are easy to forecast:
Take Service X,
Authenticate with Aadhar, seed the Bank Account
add Technologies - AI, BI, Big Data Analytics, Machine
Learning, Block Chain,
Add Platforms
Add the will & Commitment of the Govt.”
You have DIGITAL INDIA