emerging trends nscec
TRANSCRIPT
Emerging TrendsImpacting Higher EducationPresented by Dr. Jim Black, President & CEO of SEM Works
Agenda
‣ Demographic shifts
‣ Tomorrow’s Students
‣ Emerging Trends
Demographic Shifts
Is Demography Destiny?
Is Demography Destiny?
50
Knocking at the College Door
ethnicity and gender, they have been in decline nationally among individuals aged five to 14 for many years and now account for only about 16.8 deaths per 100,000 individuals.3
Migration has a much greater impact on the year-to-year enrollment data, and in a discussion of high school graduation rates, it takes multiple forms. Migration occurring between states is driven in large part by the relative strength of economies and the availability of employment, but the relative cost of living, transportation costs, and the perceived strength of local schools can also be factors. Metropolitan areas that sit astride state borders, such as Washington, D.C., and Kansas City, are particularly susceptible to this form of migration. Additionally, immigration from outside the U.S. affects CSR. The most notable impacts are felt from immigrants (legal and illegal) from Mexico in border states like Arizona, Texas, and California.
Migration also occurs between public and nonpublic schools. This form of migration most typically occurs at the junctures between school levels. For example, parents may be likely to transfer their children to a nonpublic high school at the beginning of ninth grade.
In addition, educational policy changes can have a substantial impact on progression ratios. Growing attention to accountability mandates brought on by the passage of No Child Left Behind has likely
influenced the number of enrollments and graduates. Increased attention to graduation rates, particularly the effort to establish a uniform measurement across states, is likely to direct attention to educational success in the years to come. Changes in graduation requirements, especially to improve the rigor of the standard high
Chapter 4. Sources and Methods
Figure 4.1. Births by Region
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
.8
.6
.4
.2
0
Mill
ions
1985
Midwest
Northeast
West
South
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Figure 4.2. Percent Change in Births Between 1994 and 2004 by Region and Race/Ethnicity
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20U.S.
Perc
ent
West Midwest Northeast South
American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic
7.1
44.3
40.1
-7.5 -6.8
0.8
19.3 20.9
-18.2
-7.9
23.6
72.974.5
-11.0
-6.7
-12.9
-19.4
-15.1
18.6
64.4
-0.2 -1.2
20.2
83.1
75.8
Source: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Actual and Projected High School Graduates by Region
0
300
600
900
1200
NortheastMidwest
South
West
2001-02 2006-07 2019-20
Source: WICHE
23
Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1992 to 2022
regionwide, with several exceptions. Louisiana is the most obvious one, though the decline in graduates from nonpublic schools may be much less substantial than declines in the public sector there. Other states will also have shrinking nonpublic school graduating classes between 2002-03 and 2009-10, including Mississippi (23.7 percent), Oklahoma (34.3 percent), South Carolina (18.6 percent), Tennessee (8.9 percent), and Texas (12.8 percent). Mostly, the short-term projections for nonpublic graduates are part of an upward (though uneven) trend that is predicted to reach into the third decade of the 21st century. Kentucky represents the exception, where by 2021-22 the number of nonpublic graduates is forecast to have fallen by 10.8 percent from 2004-05, more than reversing a short-term gain in that state.
Figure 2.20 shows the projected regional change in total high school graduates, as disaggregated by state, for three different time periods. It shows that the bulk of the growth in the South is attributable to Texas and Florida, with North Carolina and Georgia accounting for most of the remaining increase.
Chapter 2. Projections of High School Graduates
SummaryNationally, these projections indicate that the number of high school graduates will rise through 2007-08, continuing a trend that began more than a decade ago. After that, the number of graduates will dip for several years before starting to increase again around the middle of the second decade of the century. Yet the four geographic regions, as well as individual states, will face very different fortunes over the next decade in terms of the number of graduates they produce from public and nonpublic high schools.
Figures 2.21 and 2.22 illustrate changes in the states over the short term
and the medium term. Figure 2.21 shows the change over the first five years of the projections, while Figure 2.22 shows the change over the first 10 years. Together, the two figures point to how dramatically the forecast changes from state to state and how it differs among states over the two time frames. While the first half of the period will clearly be characterized by growth in many places throughout the country, by 2015 decreases will be more widespread. In both figures, a number of states in the West and the South stand out for their rapid growth, especially Nevada and Arizona. By contrast, states in the Northeast, the upper Midwest, and the northeastern part of the West can expect to see their production of high school graduates erode.
Figure 2.22. Percent Change in Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by State,
2004-05 to 2014-15
-10% or less-5% to -9.99%-4.99% to 5%5.01% to 10%10.01% to 20%Greater than 20%
Source: WICHE
40
Knocking at the College Door
Figure 3.22. Numerical Change Between 2005 and 2015 in American Indian/Alaska Native
Public High School Graduates by State
0 or less1 to 100101 to 250Greater than 250
will be offset by growth in the proportion of Hispanic graduates, which is projected to climb from 5 to 8 percent in the Midwest and from 9 to 13 percent in the Northeast, and by growth in the share of Asians/Pacific Islanders. In the South, the proportion of White non-Hispanic graduates will fall from 60 percent to 51 percent over the same time frame, while the share of Hispanic graduates will fill in the resulting gap as it swells from 13 percent to 22 percent (Figure 3.20).
Racial/Ethnic GroupsIt is abundantly clear that all four regions are feeling the impact of the demographic shifts taking place today, and they will continue to do so throughout the coming years. Indeed, few states will escape the necessity of having to take a critical look at the way they structure and deliver education in order to meet the needs of a rapidly changing population.
Yet the momentum behind these demographic shifts is concentrated in some states more than in others. For instance, the flow of additional school enrollments and graduates among Hispanics is heavier in states that already have relatively large Hispanic populations, although even states with comparably little experience working with Hispanic students will see dramatic growth relative to their existing student populations. Therefore, this section presents a series of maps that are intended to describe the existing racial/ethnic composition of each state’s cohort of high
school graduates and how that composition is projected to change by 2015.
Chapter 3. Projections by Race/Ethnicity
2% or less2.01% to 5%5.01% to 10%Greater than 10%
Figure 3.21. American Indians/Alaska Natives as a Percent of Public High School Graduates
by State, 2004-05
Actual and Projected High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State
Source: WICHE
46
Knocking at the College Door
are California, Louisiana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Kansas, Maryland, Oregon, Wyoming, Rhode Island, and Vermont, all of which project annual decreases averaging 2 percent or more. Despite its large population,
California sets the pace for the slowing production of White non-Hispanic high school graduates, with a projected decline of nearly 3.2 percent annually, averaged over the decade. But, several states in the South will see little average annual change in the number of White non-Hispanic graduates. These will be joined by Indiana and New Jersey outside that region.
SummaryDemographic shifts underway throughout the nation, all four of its regions, and most of its states are radically changing the racial/ethnic composition of the student body that public schools will be serving in the years to come. High school graduating classes are diversifying almost as rapidly. Although not all high school graduates go on to college and not all college students are recent high school graduates, such diversification will put pressure on many aspects of postsecondary education to adapt.
States and institutions will have to consider how to ensure that the curriculum being offered is culturally sensitive and responsive. Given historical patterns of academic support and preparation, academic and financial aid advisors will likely see more students with larger deficits in learning and fewer financial
Figure 3.34. Numerical Change Between 2005 and 2015 in White non-Hispanic
Public High School Graduates by State
-10,000 or less-9,999 to -2,500-2,499 to 0Greater than 0
50% or less50.01% to 75%75.01% to 90%Greater than 90%
Figure 3.33. White non-Hispanics as a Percent of Public High School Graduates
by State, 2004-05
Figure 3.35 shows how the majority of states can expect to see average annual decreases in their production of White non-Hispanic public high school graduates. The states expected to see the fastest average annual decline
Chapter 3. Projections by Race/Ethnicity
Actual and Projected High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State
Source: WICHE
45
Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1992 to 2022
Figure 3.32. Average Annual Percent Change Between 2005 and 2015 in Hispanic
Public High School Graduates by State
-2% or less-1.99% to -0.5%-0.49% to 0.5%0.51% to 2%2.01% to 5%5.01% to 10%Greater than 10%
0 or less1 to 5,0005,001 to 20,000Greater than 20,000
Figure 3.31. Numerical Change Between 2005 and 2015 in Hispanic Public High School
Graduates by State
among Hispanic graduates. Figure 3.32 shows the rates at which such growth is projected to occur. Hispanic graduate numbers will grow especially rapidly in all the states of the South, as well as in several Midwest states. Despite its large share of Hispanic graduates in 2004-05, Nevada still projects rapid growth among those students due to its exploding rate of overall growth. And several other Western states, such as Colorado and Arizona, show a similar combination of high numbers and a fast growth rate (though not as fast as Nevada’s).
White non-HispanicsOther than in California, Hawaii, New Mexico, and Texas, White non-Hispanic graduates composed the majority of those graduating from public high school in 2005 (Figure 3.33). Moreover, the northern tier states, especially in northern New England and the upper Midwest, generally produced graduating classes with denser concentrations of White non-Hispanics.
Looking ahead to 2015, regional patterns are a little less discernable in terms of changes in the number of White non-Hispanic graduates (Figure 3.34). The bulk of the states are likely to see decreases, with growth isolated in a small and scattered group of states. Only Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, North Carolina, and Utah are projected to produce more White non-Hispanic public high school graduates in 2015 than they did in 2004-05. Meanwhile, White
non-Hispanic graduates in California in 2014-15 are projected to number almost 40,000 less than they did in 2004-05, and the decline will exceed 10,000 in Illinois, Pennsylvania, New York, and Texas.
Chapter 3. Projections by Race/Ethnicity
Actual and Projected High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State
Source: WICHE
43
Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1992 to 2022
Figure 3.28. Numerical Change Between 2005 and 2015 in Black non-Hispanic
Public High School Graduates by State
0 or less1 to 1,0001,001 to 5,000Greater than 5,000
2% or less2.01% to 5%5.01% to 10%Greater than 10%
Figure 3.27. Black non-Hispanics as a Percent of Public High School Graduates
by State, 2004-05
West Virginia and Kentucky (Figure 3.27). Many of these states had concentrations exceeding 30 percent, including Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, and South Carolina. In several states along the Eastern Seaboard, including Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey,
New York, and Connecticut, as well as in Pennsylvania and the District of Columbia, Black non-Hispanics represented at least 10 percent of public graduating classes. The same held true in four Midwestern states: Ohio, Michigan, Missouri, and Illinois. The only public
high school graduating classes in the West in which Black non-Hispanics had at least a 5 percent share were in California and Nevada.
Figure 3.28 shows the change in the number of Black non-Hispanic public high school graduates projected to occur in the decade following 2004-05. Geographic patterns are less clear for members of this population. For instance, Georgia is projected to have one of the largest increases over that time frame, but two of the states it borders (Alabama and South Carolina) will see declines. Drops will also be seen in the southern part of New England, as well as in New York and California. But most of the states in the country can expect modest increases in the number of Black non-Hispanic graduates from public schools by 2014-15.States showing the fastest average annual growth in Black non-Hispanic graduate numbers by 2014-15 are mostly those that have relatively small Black non-Hispanic populations in the first place (Figure 3.29). States such as Montana, Maine, and North Dakota (for which projections indicate a growth rate exceeding 10 percent per year) will see high rates of growth but very modest increases in the number of Black non-Hispanic graduates. A
Chapter 3. Projections by Race/Ethnicity
Actual and Projected High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State
Source: WICHE
42
Knocking at the College Door
0 or less1 to 1,0001,001 to 2,500Greater than 2,500
Figure 3.25. Numerical Change Between 2005 and 2015 in Asian/Pacific Islander
Public High School Graduates by State
Figure 3.26. Average Annual Percent Change Between 2005 and 2015 in
Asian/Pacific Islander Public High School Graduates by State
-2% or less-1.99% to -0.5%-0.49% to 0.5%0.51% to 2%2.01% to 5%5.01% to 10%Greater than 10%
York, Virginia, and Washington – had shares between five and 10 percent. Several of those same states will continue to add larger numbers of graduates from this group than other states: California, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, and Virginia will be joined by Florida and Texas
as states that will see their number of public high school graduates of Asian/Pacific Islander descent climb by more than 2,500 between 2005 and 2015 (Figure 3.25). Only Louisiana, Massachusetts, South Dakota, and Rhode Island are forecast to produce fewer Asian/Pacific Islander
graduates in that period. A vast swath of states in the center of the country, spanning three regions (the West, the Midwest, and the South), will show only modest increases of less than 1,000 Asian/Pacific Islander graduates.
Nationally, Asians/Pacific Islanders are projected to see the second-fastest growth rates among all racial/ethnic groups (Figure 3.26). Only four states will see a negative average annual growth rate over the decade following 2004-05: Hawaii, Louisiana, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.11 Arizona, Nevada, and Arkansas can expect the biggest increases in Asian/Pacific Islander numbers, and the southern tier of states generally (other than Louisiana) will see the fastest average annual growth, relative to 2004-05 levels. Even the Northeast states, aside from Rhode Island and Massachusetts, will produce Asian/Pacific Islander graduates at a significantly increased rate.
Black non-HispanicsPublic high school graduates who are Black non-Hispanic are more densely concentrated in eastern half of the nation than elsewhere, particularly in the Southeast, where they accounted for 10 percent or more of the high school graduating class of 2005 in all states except
Chapter 3. Projections by Race/Ethnicity
Actual and Projected High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity by State
Source: WICHE
% of Lives Births 18 Years Later Enrolled in Postsecondary Education
‣ PSE participation rate
‣ Market share
‣ New markets 0
20
40
60
80
19701990
20002008
2011
% Enrolled in PSE
Source: WICHE
Participation Rates‣ PSE participation rates are
inversely correlated to the economy
‣ Females participation rates have increased at a higher rate than males over the last decade
‣ Over the last decade the participation rate of Blacks, Hispanics, and Asian/Pacific Islanders has increased slightly
‣ The national enrollment migration pattern
‣ 6,289
Source: US Department of Education
Market Share
‣ Market share
‣ Mind share
New Market Risks
EstablishedMarket
NewMarket
NewPrograms
EstablishedPrograms
1. Lowest Risk 2. Moderate Risk
3. Moderate Risk 4. Highest Risk
Market Penetration Program Expansion
Market Expansion Market Diversification
Tomorrow’s Students
Pathway Promises
‣ Further education
‣ Employment
‣ Career advancement
‣ Opportunities to learn
Jobs
Always Connected
‣ Taking away their cell phones
‣ The bedroom is command central
‣ An escape from a mundane life
‣ Isolation or a social network
‣ Enhanced learning or deterioration
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/digitalnation/view/
‣ Entitlement generation
‣ Expect to succeed
‣ Seek edutainment
‣ Blurred boundaries for classroom behavior
‣ Socialize online and in packs
‣ Multi-taskers
‣ Living in the Techno Cro-Magnon Period
‣ Inhabitants of a flat world
‣ Increasingly diverse
‣ More 1st generation
‣ Family-oriented
‣ Marketing skeptics
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
44.7
31.1
8.8
20.7
43.5
22.1
Only Husband Working Dual Earners Single Parent Earner
1975 2008
The New Normal
1.Changing careers more frequently2.Working multiple jobs3.Self-employed4.Contract laborers5.Working from home
The future of the US workforce will be determined by:‣ The rate of recovery from the recession
‣ The growth of Green technology and infrastructure jobs
‣ Legislation regarding labor force issues such as NAFTA
‣ The pace of technological change
‣ A quickening rate of economic globalization
The future of the US workforce will be determined by:‣ The rate of recovery from the recession
‣ The growth of Green technology and infrastructure jobs
‣ Legislation regarding labor force issues such as NAFTA
‣ The pace of technological change
‣ A quickening rate of economic globalization
Adults students
will follow the
jobs.
Emerging Trends
Trend 1: Social and Digital Media
‣ Privacy issues
‣ Sexting
‣ Cyber bullying
‣ Depression
‣ Relationship depth and breadth
‣ Illegal file sharing
‣ Access to all human knowledge
‣ Validation of information
‣ Plagiarism
‣ A culture of immediacy
‣ Classroom behavior
‣ Privacy issues
‣ Sexting
‣ Cyber bullying
‣ Depression
‣ Relationship depth and breadth
‣ Illegal file sharing
‣ Access to all human knowledge
‣ Validation of information
‣ Plagiarism
‣ A culture of immediacy
‣ Classroom behavior
We are not immune to the phenomenon
<iframe width="1280" height="750" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/tGn3-RW8Ajk?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Trend 2: The eBook Revolution
‣ 1 million iPads sold in the first
27 days in the US
‣ Amazon is selling 143 eBooks for every 100 hard copy books sold
‣ Amazon has 630,000 Kindle
eBooks
‣ Stanford University leads the way in digitizing library books
The University of Texas at San Antonio announces the opening of the world’s first bookless library in 2010.
Flatworld Knowledge is the world’s largest publisher of fully editable and FREE college textbooks.
The Next Generation of Textbooks
<iframe width="1280" height="750" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/uL-2Egqc1qc?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Trend 3: Consumer-Driven, Flexible Learning Options
http://www.uopeople.org/
<iframe width="960" height="750" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/7w8My_aNDDw?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Trend 4: High Tech, High Touch Services
One-stopServices
http://itunes.apple.com/us/itunes-u/student-services/id390961657
No-stopServices
Any-stop Services
Shared ServiceCenter
Trend 5: Outsourcing
CRM Systems
Trend 6: A Widening Range of Student Abilities, Preparedness, Background, and Motivation
The Obama Administration’shigher education agenda...
The Administration’s Goals‣ By 2020, have the
highest college completion rate in the world
‣ Increase access to higher education
‣ Strengthen the PSE pipeline
‣ Restructure federal financial aid
‣ Invest in community colleges to equip a greater number of people with the skills to work in emerging industries
The top 5 countries with the highest college completion rates
1. Canada (55.8%)
2. South Korea (55.5%)
3. Russia (55.4%)
4. Japan (55.3%)
5. New Zealand (47.3%)
The top 5 countries with the highest college completion rates
1. Canada (55.8%)
2. South Korea (55.5%)
3. Russia (55.4%)
4. Japan (55.3%)
5. New Zealand (47.3%)
Among Americans 25-34 years of age, 40% have an associate’s degree or higher--placing the US 12th in the ranking.
Challenges and Opportunities‣ A recovering economy
‣ Protracted developmental coursework
‣ Early student engagement with support services
‣ Sustained intervention and mentoring
‣ Employee bandwidth
‣ Faculty development
‣ Commitment and accessibility of adjunct instructors
Trend 7: Financial Constraints
Higher education is in a period
of “creative destruction.”
-- Joseph Schumpeter
US College Cost Trends
Consumer Expectations
2011-12 Tuition and Fees
College and universities of the future must focus on...‣ Cost management rather than revenue enhancement
‣ The institution’s core educational mission rather than pursuing new sources of revenue and status
‣ Strategic choices rather than short-term fixes
Source: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education
‣ Balancing ACCESS and QUALITY
‣ Leveraging strategic intelligence
‣ Focusing on what matters most
‣ Letting go of less effective strategies
‣ Willingness to sunset programs that have atrophied
‣ Monitoring ROI
‣ Continuous improvement
“Skate to where the puck will be.”
-- Wayne Gretzky Final
Thoughts
Final
Thoughts
“Be the change you want to see in the world.”
--Gandhi
Me-Centered Attitudes
UndesiredBehaviors Faulty Mental
Maps
Decisions Voidof Data
Calcified Practices
Archaic Policies
UnproductiveStrategies
IneffectiveTeaching
Methodologies
To thrive in the future, you must have the intelligence that allows your organization to FOCUS on the right strategic issues and the
institutional WILL to act.
Final
Thoughts
