Air pollution modeling in the Estado de São Paulo using a bottom-up emissions inventory

Orientadora: Rita Yuri YnoueAluno: Sergio Ibarra Espinosa

2/10/14

Universidade de São PauloInstituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas

1 Background

Expanded Area: Sao Paulo, Campinas, Santos and more

1 Background

Activity Level

E=FE∗VF∗TV∗L

Top-Down

Where are the cars?

But in reality...

Bottom-up

Dynamics of vehicular flux should be incorporated to emissions models

1 Background

Activity Level

E=FE∗VF∗TV∗L

Activity

Road Network

Vehicular Technology

Standards

MunicipalityStreet

Models

Statistical Evaluation

HBEFA

Emissions Estimation

Vehicular flow

Vehicular flow

Copert 4

CETESB

IAG

WRFChem

Traffic Counts

Regression and Traffic

Simulations

24 hours profile

Meteorology

Emissions Street-hour

Metodos

206 points for counting

Regressions:●Distribution Poisson●Zero Inflated Negative Binomial●Normal

Model

βo: intercept; β1: estimate; TR: Type of Street; ε: Error

0 5 10 15 20 25 300

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Distribuição normalizada 800:900 segunda São PauloRM São Paulo

seg

ter

qua

qui

sex

sab

dom

0 5 10 15 20 25 300

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Distribuição normalizada 800:900 segunda São PauloRM Campinas

segterquaquisexsabdom

RMSP RMC RML RMS RMSP RMC RML RMS Santiago AMBAIAG IAG IAG IAG CETESB CETESB CETESB CETESB DICTUC D'Angiola

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000Emissions inventories (t/y)

CO (t/a) Nox (t/a) COV (t/a)