emissions inventory overview 03152010 for march 16 meeting.ppt materials/otc maram… · marama otc...
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Susan S.G. WiermanPatrick Davis
MARAMA
OTC Committees MeetingHartford, CT
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March 16, 2010
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TopicsOverview
Stakeholder outreach opportunitiesStakeholder outreach opportunitiesStatus by sector
Wh t fi d d tWhere to find data
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1. Overview2007 emissions inventory under development for SIP modelingp gFuture modeling years to be selectedPollutants: NOx VOC PM2 5 PM10 SO2 Pollutants: NOx, VOC, PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, Ammonia B d F t i t t t Base and Future year inventory target completion ‐‐ October 2010
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General PhilosophyEach State controls its emissions inventoryMARAMA provides training and technical MARAMA provides training and technical support to statesMARAMA coordinates contractor assistance MARAMA coordinates contractor assistance MARAMA coordinates stakeholder review ith i t f t twith assistance from states
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G l S h d lGeneral ScheduleMarch 2010
Updates completed by this time will be used in initial screening modeling
August 2010T t f l ti i i t Target for completing remaining 2007 sectors
October 2010October 2010Target for completing future year projections
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S S h d l f 2007 DSector Schedule for 2007 Data2007 inventory sectors to be updated by March 2010:
Point source annual emissions (complete)Point source hourly emissions (underway)Non‐road mobile sources calculated by NONROAD model (complete)Area source emissions (underway)Area source emissions (underway)
2007 inventory sectors to be updated by August 2010Remaining non‐road (marine, air, and rail)Remaining non road (marine, air, and rail)Any remaining area source categories
On‐road emissions may take additional time
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y
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2 St k h ld O t h Pl2. Stakeholder Outreach PlanInitial Outreach
OTC Committee Meeting Sept. 2‐3, 2009October 2009 stakeholder review of 2007 annual
i i S i d d point source inventory – States reviewed and revised in response to comments
Ongoing OutreachOngoing OutreachOTC Committee Meeting March 16, 2010Stakeholder review of hourly 2007 point source Stakeholder review of hourly 2007 point source inventory begins March 16, 2010Area source inventory & NONROAD
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ydocumentation to be posted soon
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3. Status by SectorPoint – Annual and HourlyAAreaNon‐road MobileNon road MobileOn‐road Mobile
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P i t S I tPoint Source ImprovementsInitial focus – 2007 annual emissions Initial focus 2007 annual emissions State 2007 point source inventory dataI t CAMD d tIncorporate CAMD dataImproved crosswalk between CAMD ID and State ID
Estimate PM2.5 Condensable Emissions5MARAMA’s 2008 Condensable Study
Revised based on Stakeholder Review3/17/2010 93/17/2010 9
Revised based on Stakeholder Review
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2007 Hourly Point Source InventoryCAMD data for the entire year includesCAMD data for the entire year includes
About 90% of OTR point source SO2About 65% of OTR point source NOxbout 65% o O R po t sou ce NO
Other sources of hourly informationMaryland data for sources reporting 6 months Maryland data for sources reporting 6 months to CAMDVirginia study of Distributed Generation sourcesGeneral temporal profiles in the model used f th
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for other sources
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Classification of Sources Reporting to CAMD
Operating over 50% of the time in 2007Operating 15 to 50 % of the time in 2007Operating less than 15% of the time in 2007
(If only reporting for 6 months, then percent was of that time)time)
Hourly point source inventory annual totals for CAMD Hourly point source inventory annual totals for CAMD sources are the same as annual totals previously reviewed by states and stakeholders
D i l i d & h d d
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Documentation explains data sources & methods used
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2002 and 2007 Annual NOx Emissions from Point Sources2002 and 2007 Annual NOx Emissions from Point Sources
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Emission Changes in Top NOx Sources g p2007 vs. 2002
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Emission Changes in Top NOx Sources 2007 vs. 2009 BOTW
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2007 minus 2002
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Status of Area Source Inventory
States submitted Area source inventory in January 2010.2010.Contractor adjusted to 2007, performed QA and states are responding to QA issues
Working on filling gaps, resolving issues
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Area Source ImprovementsAg Ammonia g
EPA updated the inventory with the 2007 Census of AgricultureOTR states reviewed the emissions and activity data and provided updates to EPAFinal state review underwayFinal state review underway
Residential Wood CombustionEPA developed calculation tool with 2007 EPA developed calculation tool with 2007 population updatesOTR states reviewed the activity data and provided
EPA
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comments to EPAFinal state review underway
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Non‐road Mobile Sector StatusMACTEC ran the NONROAD model in NMIM
2007 household and population data, state inputDocumentation will be posted for review soon
M i i d il t iMarine, air, and rail categoriesWorking with EPA on Marine and Airport Inventory
Plan to include offshore shipping emissions from EPAPlan to include offshore shipping emissions from EPA
Inter‐regional effort to update rail data Expecting to receive information soon
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Preliminary – Not including MAR
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Schedule for Non road SectorSchedule for Non‐road SectorOctober 2009 – MACTEC ran NMIM with revised inputs and prepares NIF files.November 2009– States reviewed results9December 2009– MACTEC addressed state comments on ‘07 NMIM inventory. comments on 07 NMIM inventory. March 2010 – States to submit draft M/A/R data data. April 2010 –Expect stakeholder review of d t ti f NMIM/NONROAD
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documentation of NMIM/NONROAD run.
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O d M bil S SOn‐road Mobile Sector StatusMOVES Model
Released in December, 2009States preparing input dataStates preparing input dataEPA developing interface with SMOKE
Will not run MOVES until this is released
Considering how to structure the runs to achieve in reasonable time
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runs to achieve in reasonable time
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Potential Emission Changes in Draft MOVESQueens County NY – NOxQueens County, NY – NOx
Queens County NOx
60MOVES reduction = 61%
40
50MOVES
HD
MOBILE6 reduction = 60%
30
ons
per D
ay
MOBILE
10
20
To MOVES
MOBILE
LD HD
0
10
July 2008 July 2018
LD
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• NOx emissions and control effectiveness may increase Source: OTAQ
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Potential Emission Changes in DraftMOVESQueens County, NY – PM2.5Queens County, NY PM2.5
Queens County PM2.5
1.80MOVES MOVES PM2.5 reduction = 50%
1.20
1.40
1.60
HD
MOBILE6 PM2.5 reduction = 63%
0.80
1.00
ons
per D
ay MOBILE6
HDMOVES
0.40
0.60
T
LDLD
MOBILE6
0.00
0.20
January 2008 January 2018
PM i i i i ll f h d t hi l
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PM2.5 emissions may increase, especially for heavy duty vehicles, and control effectiveness may declineSource: OTAQ
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4. Finding the data and documentsTh MARAMA W b it The MARAMA Website –Projects j
2007 Base Case Inventory/ j twww.marama.org/projects
Look for hourly point starting y p gtoday, area soon, NONROAD documentation soon
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documentation soon
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Susan Wierman & Patrick DavisSusan Wierman & Patrick DavisMARAMA
443‐901‐1882i ( ) swierman (at) marama.orgpdavis (at) marama.org
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