emissions scenarios for effective policies: chinas so 2 control geia 2015 conference, beijing, nov...
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SO 2 is a key contributor to severe PM pollution in winter ug m -3 Zheng G. et al., 2015, ACP sulfate nitrate ammonium OCTRANSCRIPT
Emissions Scenarios for Effective Policies: China’s SO2 control
GEIA 2015 Conference, Beijing, Nov 20,2015
Yuxuan Wang1,2, Qianqian Zhang1,3
1Tsinghua University; 2 Texas A&M University; 3China Meteorological Agency
Researches to be discussed Air quality trend in China Emissions and future scenarios What are missing in current policies?
Deterioration of air quality over China
2
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 20130.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8r=0.65 p<0.05
AOD
2008-2010 Olympics “heritage”
2012: PM2.5 at US
Embassy
Jan 201315 days > 300ug/m3
Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MODIS
Winter Mean AOD (North China)
Jia B., Wang Y et al., 2015, ACP
Xie Y., Wang Y et al., 2015
PM2.5 and AOD: R2 = 0.8
3x3 km PM2.5 map: 98% of Beijing population exposed to long-term PM2.5 pollution exceeding 50 ug/m3
SO2 is a key contributor to severe PM pollution in winter
3
<35 35-115 115-350 >350 ug m-3
Zheng G. et al., 2015, ACP
sulfate
nitrate
ammonium
OC
Does China have the right emission control policies to control PM pollution?
4
National level policies are set in the Five-Year Plans (FYP)
SO2 has been the only air pollutant regulated by China Five-Year Plans (FYP) until recently
Emission targets in the 12th FYP (2011-2015): 8% continuing reduction in SO2 emissions 10% reduction in NOx emissions
Only national level targets
National target vs. Regional target
5
Target: 8% reduction in SO2 = 2.3 Tg
Four Emission ScenariosS1: 8% reduction everywhereS2: 2.3 Tg reduction over NCS3: 2.3 Tg reduction over SCS4: 2.3 Tg reduction over SWC
Three Impact Metrics Surface concentrationsPopulation-weighted concentration (PWC)Outflow Fluxes to Western Pacific
∆ 𝑋𝑋 =𝛽× ∆𝐸𝐸
X: Impact metricsE: Emissionsβ: Efficiency factor
Zhang QQ, et al., 2015, ACP
Reducing SO2 over North China is most effective
6
Scenarios
concentration outflow fluxes
β
Why North China? Sulfate chemistry Regional transport ( NC to SC: 23%) Outflow pathways
Zhang QQ, et al., 2015, ACP
Change in SO2 emissions during 2006-2010 (MEIC inventory):
National mean: -9.4%North China: -4.7%South China: -16.1%
Southwest China: -23.1%
Effects of the 12th FYP policy on PM
7
NH3 emissions from Streets, et al., 2003a
2000-2015 Emissions of SO2 and NOx
+1.5%
-5%
Simulated difference in PM2.5
during 2006-2015
+8%
Constant NH3 emissions 16% increase in NH3
Wang Y, et al., 2013, ACP
Future Projections
8
6.6% 14% 8%
Control SO2 and NOX Control all threeControl NH3 only (NH3 down by 20%)
China’s Energy Consumption by Fuel (1995-2030)
(Zhao B. et al. ACP, 2013)
2010-2030 ‘optimistic’ scenario
SO2: -7%NOx: -20%
References Zhang, Q.Q., Y. Wang, Q. Ma, Y. Xie, K. He, Regional differences in
Chinese SO2 emission control efficiency and policy implications, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6521-6533, 2015
Wang, Y., Q.Q. Zhang, K.B. He, Q. Zhang, and L.B. Chai, Sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols over China: response to 2000-2015 emission changes of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and ammonia, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13 (5), 2635–2652, 2013
Jia, B., Y. Wang, Y. Yao, Y. Xie, A new indicator on the impact of large-scale circulation patterns on wintertime particulate matter pollution over China, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 11919-11929, 2015
Xie, Y., Y. Wang, K. Zhang, W. Dong, B. Lv, Y. Bai, Daily estimation of ground-level PM2.5 concentrations over Beijing using 3 km resolution MODIS AOD, Environ. Sci. Technol., 49, 12280−12288, DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b01413, 2015
Zhao, B., S.X. Wang, H. Liu, et al., NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 9869–9897, 2013
Zheng G J, Duan F K, Su H, et al., Exploring the severe winter haze in Beijing: the impact of synoptic weater, regional transport and heterogeneous reactions. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15: 2969-2983, 2015