emme project_oqrelease
TRANSCRIPT
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Hazard Modelers: Laurentiu DANCIU, Karin SESETYAN and Mine B. DEMIRCIOGLU,
Project Coordinators: Domenico GIARDINI and Mustafa ERDIK EMME Consortium Condtributing to hazard components:
METU, SAU (TR), IIEES (IR), AUB (LB), YU (JO), Upesh (PK), IJSU (GE), SCI (ARM), ANAS (AZ)
EMME-HAZ-2014: SEISMIC HAZARD MODEL and RESULTS for THE MIDDLE EAST REGION
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SEISMIC HAZARD COMPONENTS
OUR MAJOR AIM WAS TO BUILD
A regional consensus model
Homogenized across national boundaries
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Target
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All steps of the seismic hazard assessment have to be:
– Validated
– Benchmarked
– Reproducible
– Standardized
– Inter-Comparable
– Testable
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EQ CatalogHarmonized in terms of MwTotal: 27174 Events
Historical part (-1900) Early and modern instrumental (~2006)Declustering Method:Grunthal (1985)After Declustering10524 Events18 Completeness Super-Zones
Mw>=6.00
EMME14 Catalogue
Completeness Super-Zones
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Two fully independent source zonation models:
– Area source model• Active shallow and stable continental areal sources
• Subduction interface modeled as complex fault
• Deep areal sources
– All activity computed from seismicity
– Fault source and background seismicity model• Fault sources in 3D
• Background seismicity
• Subduction interface modeled as complex fault
• Deep seismicity
– Fault activity computed from slip rates
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Maximum Magnitude
Upper-bound magnitude to the earthquake recurrence (frequency-magnitude) curve. Maximum Magnitude assessment (Super-Zones)
– Historical seismicity record
– Location uncertainties
– Analogies to tectonic regions
– Added increment (0.30)
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Source Model Logic Tree
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Area Source Model
Classical area source zones based on the tectonic findings and their correlation and up-to-day seismicity
Derived from seismicity patterns
Ensure the zonation adequately reflect this pattern
Surface projection of identified active faults (capable of generating earthquakes)
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Subduction Interface
Deep Seismicity
Shallow Seismicity
Area SourceModel
Three Source Layers224 shallow10 Deep6 Interface
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Area Source Model
EMCA source model integration and harmonization
New tectonic regionalization: stable continental regions (yellow)
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Source Characterization
Homogeneous, declustered catalogue
Completeness defined for 18 super zones
Maximum likelihood approach (Weichert 1984)
– Truncated Guttenberg-Richter Magnitude Frequency Distribution• 10a – annual number of events of magnitude greater or equal to zero
• b-GR value
Truncated at each assigned maximum magnitude
For each source three magnitude-frequency-distributions were derived
A Matlab* toolbox was developed
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• Shallow Sources: Activity
aGR Values
bGR Values
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Deep Seismicity - Activity
aGR Values
bGR Values
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Depth Distribution (three values and the corresponding weights):
– Active shallow crust
– Nested Deep Seismicity
– Subduction Inslab
Focal Mechanisms
– Rake Angle values (Aki’s definition)
– Percentage weights
Ruptures Orientation
– Strike Angle (Azimuth)
– Dip Angle
Rupture Properties
– Upper and Lower Seismogenic Depth
Area Source [Single Rupture]
Source Parameterization
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PGA [g]RP=475yrs
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Source Model Logic Tree
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Fault source model derived from the faults database collected within WP2
– Total number: 3397 fault segments, total Km: 91551km
EMME Faults Dataset
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Fault Sources
Criteria to select “capable” or active faults to be used for hazard assessment:
– Identified active faults [capable of earthquakes]: Northern Anatolian Faults, Marmara Faults, Zagros Transform Faults
– At least 0.10mm/year (1m in 1000years - Neocene)
– Maximum magnitude equal to 6.00
– Fully parameterized:• Geometry
• Slip-rates
– Confidence Classes:• Class A: complete information provided by the compiler
• Class B: partial information provided by compiler
• Class C: limited information provided
• Class D: only top trace available
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Deep Seismicity
Active Faults
Subduction Interface
Four SourceLayersFaults
10 Deep
9 Interface
Background Seismicity
Fault SourceModel
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Fault Source Model
• 15 km buffer zone around the surface projection of the fault sources
• M>=6.0 in the buffer zones assigned to fault sources
• M<6.0 in the buffer zones from smoothed seismicity
• Smoothed background seismicity outside the buffer zones
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Fault Source ModelSlip rate
Fault length / aspect ratio
Maximum Magnitude
Anderson & Luco (1983) Recurrence Model 2
b-value from the completeness super zones
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Subduction Interface
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Subduction interface Earthquake Recurrence
– From seismicity (area source model)
– From slip rates (fault source model)
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Source Parameterization
Depth Distribution
Focal Mechanisms
– Rake Angle values (Aki’s definition)
– Percentage weights
Ruptures Orientation: Strike and Dip Angles
Rupture Properties
– Upper and Lower Seismogenic Depth
Point Source [Single Rupture]
Fault Top Trace
Focal Mechanisms
– Rake Angle values (Aki’s definition)
Ruptures Orientation: Strike and Dip Angles
Rupture Properties
– Upper and Lower Seismogenic Depth
Simple Fault
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PGA [g]RP=475yrs
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Logic Tree
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AS Model only 475 years
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AS Model only 2475 years
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FS Model only 475 years
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FS Model only 2475 years
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LOGIC TREE COMBINATION
COMBINED MODEL
AS MODEL
FS MODEL
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AS: 60%, FS: 40%, 475 years
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AS: 60%, FS: 40%, 2475 years
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Hazard Computed for Spectral ordinates
• PGA
• SA (T=0.1 s)
• SA (T=0.15 s)
• SA (T=0.2 s)
• SA (T=0.25 s)
• SA (T=0.3 s)
• SA (T=0.5 s)
• SA (T=0.75 s)
• SA (T=1.0 s)
• SA (T=2.0 s)
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Summary
• Building a regional seismic hazard model is a collective effort
• Aim at generating the up-to-date , flexible and scalable database that will permit continuous update, refinement, and analysis.
• Data will be parameterized and input into the database with a specific format.
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Thank you!
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Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -www.globalquakemodel.org