emu reforms: achievement and challenges•the first round of reforms (since 2009) has made euro-zone...
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EMU reforms: Achievement andchallenges
Prof. Dr. Sebastian Dullien
FMM Summer School 2.8.2019
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Programme
1. Introduction
2. A look back: Causes for the euro-zone crisis
3. Pre-2017 reforms of the euro-area
4. Reform debates and progress since 2018
5. Conclusions
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Introduction
• Hope 2017: Window of opportunity for reform in Germany and France
• A number of new reformproposals
• But: Delay because of delayed governmentformation
• Decisions at euro summit in December 2018
• In parallel: Growing conflictwith Italian government
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THE DIABOLIC SEVEN: CAUSES FORTHE EURO-ZONE CRISIS
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The diabolic seven: Causes for theeuro-zone crisis
1. Excessive deficits in some countries (Greece!)
2. Problems in the banking sector
3. Doom-loop between sovereigns and banks
4. Self-fulfilling market panics
5. Boom-Bust cycles in the periphery
6. Structural divergence of competitiveness
7. Loss of legitimacy because of dismal economicperformance/feeling of political impotence
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The crisis causes
• In some countries (especially Greece) budget deficits were excessive
1. Excessive deficits in some countries (Greece!)
2. Problems in the banking sector
3. Doom-loop between sovereigns and banks
4. Self-fulfilling market panics
5. Boom-Bust cycles in the periphery
6. Structural divergence of competitiveness
7. Loss of legitimacy because of dismal economic performance/feeling of political impotence
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Crisis cause #1: Excessive deficits in some countries
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The crisis causes
• Lax regulation and excessive creditgrowth led to problems in a number of countries– During the US subprime crisis (2007-9)
• Germany, France, Ireland, Belgium, Netherlands
– Later, during the euro crisis• Spain, Greece, Cyprus
1. Excessive deficits in some countries (Greece!)
2. Problems in the banking sector
3. Doom-loop between sovereigns and banks
4. Self-fulfilling market panics
5. Boom-Bust cycles in the periphery
6. Structural divergence of competitiveness
7. Loss of legitimacy because of dismal economic performance/feeling of political impotence
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Crisis cause #2: Problems in the banking sector
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The crisis causes
1. Excessive deficits in some countries (Greece!)
2. Problems in the banking sector
3. Doom-loop between sovereigns and banks
4. Self-fulfilling market panics
5. Boom-Bust cycles in the periphery
6. Structural divergence of competitiveness
7. Loss of legitimacy because of dismal economic performance/feeling of political impotence
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Crisis cause #2: Problems in the banking sector
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The crisis causes
1. Excessive deficits in some countries (Greece!)
2. Problems in the banking sector
3. Doom-loop between sovereigns and banks
4. Self-fulfilling market panics
5. Boom-Bust cycles in the periphery
6. Structural divergence of competitiveness
7. Loss of legitimacy because of dismal economic performance/feeling of political impotence
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Crisis cause #3: Doom-loop between banks and sovereigns
Balance sheet
problems in bankingsector
Expectationsof expensive
bail-out programmes
Doubts aboutsovereign
debtsustainability
Bond pricesfall, interest
rates rise
Banks haveto write
down bondholdings
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Bank problems, sovereign debtsustainability and monetary integration
• Monetary integration makes problems in bankingsector worse
– With national oversight: External effects of insufficientoversight are not taken into account
– Financial market integration leads to bigger banks• Concentration (Krugman‘s argument)
• For smaller countries: lager market
• „Too big to save“ becomes more likely
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The crisis causes
• Without lender-of-last-resort: Danger of self-fulfilling debt crises (Obstfeld 1996, Cole/Kehoe 1996)
• With intermediate debt levels, multiple equilibria are possible:– If investors believe in solvency, interest rates
remain low and country remains solvent
– If investors doubt solvency, interest rate increases and country might be pushed intoinsolvency
• Lender-of-last-resort can solve this problem
• EMU has introduced „original sin“ through theback door
1. Excessive deficits in some countries (Greece!)
2. Problems in the banking sector
3. Doom-loop between sovereigns and banks
4. Self-fulfilling market panics
5. Boom-Bust cycles in the periphery
6. Structural divergence of competitiveness
7. Loss of legitimacy because of dismal economic performance/feeling of political impotence
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Crisis cause #4: Self-fulfilling market panics
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Crisis cause #5: Boom-and-bust-cycles
Deviation fromtrend growth
tTypical national business cycleprior to euro
Typical national business cycleafter the euro
Spain 2007
Spain 2012
Germany 2003
Germany 2016
• Euro introduction prolonged and deepened cycle asnational monetary policy was not available todampen cycle anymore
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The crisis causes
1. Excessive deficits in some countries (Greece!)
2. Problems in the banking sector
3. Doom-loop between sovereigns and banks
4. Self-fulfilling market panics
5. Boom-Bust cycles in the periphery
6. Structural divergence of competitiveness
7. Loss of legitimacy because of dismal economic performance/feeling of political impotence
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Crisis cause #6: Structuraldivergence of competitiveness
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The crisis causes
• Trust in the EU has eroded in many countries– Feeling is that EU/euro framework is forcing
policies onto countries which are not wanted (and possibly not good)
• Populists have gained in many countries
• Danger: Interaction of populism & financial markets– Imagine populists promising a euro in/out
referendum come close to power
– This could trigger outflow of bank deposits
– No proper tool available to counteract outflows
1. Excessive deficits in some countries (Greece!)
2. Problems in the banking sector
3. Doom-loop between sovereigns and banks
4. Self-fulfilling market panics
5. Boom-Bust cycles in the periphery
6. Structural divergence of competitiveness
7. Loss of legitimacy because of dismal economic performance/feeling of political impotence
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Crisis cause #7: Interaction of political/financial market crisis
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The crisis causes
1. Excessive deficits in some countries (Greece!)
2. Problems in the banking sector
3. Doom-loop between sovereigns and banks
4. Self-fulfilling market panics
5. Boom-Bust cycles in the periphery
6. Structural divergence of competitiveness
7. Loss of legitimacy because of dismal economic performance/feeling of political impotence
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Crisis cause #7: Interaction of political/financial market crisis
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Trust in the EU seems to be relatedwith economic performance: Greece
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Trust in the EU seems to be related
with economic performance: Italy
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Trust in the EU seems to be related
with economic performance: Spain
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Problems of legitimacy
People were promised…
• …improved living standards
• …more jobs
• …creation of policy space at EU level to replace policyspace lost at national level
• No transfer union (in theNorth)
People perceive outcome as..
• …stagnating living standards
• …high unemployment
• …the troika implementing„neoliberal“ reforms againstdemocratic will
• …forced transfers to theSouth
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In order to counter these feelings
• Euro area needs to prevent replay of last crisis• Euro area needs to rekindle growth and job creation• Euro area needs to show a social face• Euro area needs to strengthen democratic rule and push
back intergovernmentalism• Overall, thus EMU/EU will be able to provide protection
of the „European way of life“
• These measures might not win back all populist voters, but potentially those from the left
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PRE-2017 REFORMS OF THE EURO-AREA
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Euro area reforms so far
• Six Pack/Two Pack
– Limiting deficits and debt
– Preventive and corrective arm of SGP; macroeconomicimbalance procedure
• Fiscal compact
• ESM and OMT
• Banking union (but only partial)
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Which problems were tackled by past reforms?
Six Pack Two Pack Fiscalcompact
ESM & OMT
Banking union
Excessive deficits + + +
Problems in thebanking sector
?
Doom-loop betweenbanks and sovereigns
?
Self-fulfilling fiscal crisis +
Boom-bust-cycles ?
Divergingcompetitiveness
?
Loss of legitimacybecause of dismalgrowth performance
Unresolved/partly resolved problems
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Unresolved/partly resolved problems
Completely unadressed
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So, despite the reforms, euro-area architecture still seems fragile
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REFORM DEBATES AND PROGRESSSINCE 2017
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Reform proposals since 2017 (I): EU Commission‘s „Saint Nicholas“-package
• Turn ESM into „European Monetary Fund“ & fiscalbackstop of banking union
• Bring fiscal compact into EU treaties
• (Small) budget element for Begrenztes Haushaltselement zur Konjunkturstabilisierung & „Förderung von Reformen“
• Merge positions of president of eurogroup and vice president of EU Commission into a „European Minister of Economy and Finance“
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New reform proposals (II): 14 GER-FR economists‘ paper
• Common deposit insurance• Backstop for Banking Union
at ESM• Capital market union• New rules for government
bonds in banks‘ balancesheets („concentrationcharge“)
• Creation of safe assets in banking system („ESBies“)
• Facilitating debtrestructruing („single limbaggregation“)
• Automatic maturityextension for junior bondswhen ESM programme istriggered
• Reform of fiscal rules:expenditure path & juniorbonds for excessivespending
• Reform of ESM: Enable ESM to act without IMK
• New credit line at ESM• Fiscal capacity for €-area:
Unemployment Reinsurance
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New reform proposals (III): Macron‘s vision
• Eurozone budget– Several percent of GDP
– Investments and joint projects such as European universities, research
– Financing through tax revenue
– Controlled by the EP
• Euro finance minister
• Increased cooperation in the realms of foreign andsecurity policy, refugees, and external borders
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New reform proposals (IV): Meseberg declaration
• Reform of ESM: Move into EU-treaty, more technicalcompetence
• New credit line at the ESM
• Eurozone budget to promote „competitiveness andconvergence “
• European Unemployment Stabilization Fund
• Facilitating debt restructruing („single limbaggregation“)
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Scholz‘s proposal for a „European Unemployment (Re-)Insurance“
• Basic idea:
– Each country contributes into national compartments
– In crisis times, money is paid out
– If compartment is empty, countries can borrow from othercompartments
• Unclear whether there would be transfer elements(as in Dullien/von Weizsäcker 2018)
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Decisions taken at euro summit in December 2018
• Facilitating debt restructruing („single limbaggregation“)
• ESM Reform
• ESM as Backstop for Banking Union
• Fiscal capacity for „competitiveness andconvergence“
• Roadmap for negotiations of common European deposit insurance scheme
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Macron • Fiskal Compact intoEU law
• Euro financeminister
• ESM reform• ESM as Backstop
for banking union• Completion capital market
union
• Eurozone budget• Technology- and growth
policy• Harmonisation of
corporate tax
• Single limb aggregationfor debt restructuring
• Common depositinsurance
• ESM credit with ex-anteconditionality
• Unemploymentreinsurance
• Expenditure path instead of deficit rules
• Junior government bonds forexcessive debt
• Automatic maturityextension for juniorbonds in case of ESM loan
• Introduction of „Esbies“
as safe asset
Bold: Decisions taken at eurosummit in December 2018
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EVALUATING THE REFORMS
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Reform proposals and causes for crisisBisherige Reformen
Nikolaus-Paket
14 Ökonomen Macron Meseberg BeschlüsseDezember `18
Excessive deficits ++ Expenditure rules withexpenditure path
Excessive debt level ? New expenditure ruleswith junior debt
Single limbaggregation
Single limbaggregation
Problems in the bankingsector
? Completion of banking union
Completion of bankingunion
Completion of banking union
Completion of banking union
Backstop forbanking union
Doom-loop betweenbanks and sovereigns
? Completion of banking union
Completion of bankingunion; Concentration
charge for governmentbonds; Esbies
Completion of banking union
Completion of banking union
Self-fulfilling fiscal crisis +
Boom-bust-cycles ? Capital market union
Capital market union Eurozone budget Eurozone budget, European
unemploymentReinsurance
Divergingcompetitiveness
? Technology- andgrowth policy
European investments
Marginal budget
Loss of legitimacybecause of dismal growthperformance
Euro financeminister; euro
taxes; technologyand growth policy
Taxharmonisation;
taxation of digital companies
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Conclusions
• The first round of reforms (since 2009) has madeeuro-zone more resilient, yet vulnerabilities remain
• Progress since 2017 has been disappointing
– there is only a road-map for the common depositinsurance
– the euro-budget will be marginal and only as part of themultiannual financial framework (EU budget)
– there is no proper fiscal stabilization function
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Open Question: How will the newEuropean Commission act?
• Ursula von der Leyen has made boldpromises, includingpushing a European UnemploymentReinsurance
• Will she be willing/ableto deliver?
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THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOURATTENTION
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