Update on COVID-19 in Canada: Epidemiology and ModellingDecember 11th, 2020

2

Data as of December 8, 2020

Over 6,500 cases daily, On average, past 7 days

Continued rise in national COVID-19 daily case counts

01Mar 01Apr 01May 01Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01Sep 01Oct 01Nov 01Dec

8 000

7 000

6 000

5 000

4 000

3 000

2 000

1 000

0

Number of cases

3

Rapid growth is occurring in several provinces

Data as of December 8, 2020Date of case report

BC SKAB

ONMB

01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec

01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec

40

30

20

10

0

QC40

30

20

10

0

Number of cases per 100 000 population

01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec

More health regions are reporting higher rates of COVID-19 infection

4

49 of 99 health regions reporting > 100 cases per 100 000 population(highest: 707 per 100,000)

101 +51 to 100

26 to 5016 to 25

6 to 150 to 5

>0

Data as of December 8, 2020

5

Nationally, the percentage of people testing positive remains high

Percent positivity (7-day moving average)

Number of people tested (7-day moving average)

Number persons tested Percent positivity

Data as of December 8, 2020Data excluding Alberta because of differences in methods of computation

01Apr 01May 01Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01Sep 01Oct 01Nov 01Dec

90 000

80 000

70 000

60 000

50 000

40 000

30 000

20 000

10 000

0

6

Data as of December 8, 2020 *First available of illness onset, specimen collection, laboratory test date

80+ years

20 to 39 years

80+ years

Escalating incidence among high-risk adults, aged 80 years and older

Number of reported cases per 100 000 population (7 day moving average)

Incomplete data, reporting lag

Date of illness onset*0 to 19 20 to 39 40 to 59 60 to 79 80+

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

01Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01Sep 01Oct 01Nov 01Dec

Date of illness onset*

7

Increasing number of outbreaks in long term care facilities* with widespreadcommunity transmission

Number of outbreaks

Data as of December 7, 2020* Including retirement residences. Data for December not included

8

Since September, reported COVID-19 cases have been increasing in First Nations communities

Data source: Indigenous Services Canada – by episode date

Data as of December 5, 2020

Numberof activecases

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

08Mar 08Apr 08May 08Jun 08Jul 08Aug 08Sep 08Oct 08Nov

Active casesNumber of weekly active COVID-19 cases in First Nations communities on-reserve

9

Hospitalizations continue to increase in most provinces west of the Atlantic region

Data as of December 8, 2020

25

01Apr 01May 01Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01Sep 01Oct 01Nov 01Dec

20

15

10

Number of cases in hospitals per 100 000 population

5

0

With ongoing rapid epidemic growth, COVID-19 related deaths have been steadily rising

10

Data as of December 8, 2020

Number of deaths

Approaching 94 deaths daily on average, past 7 days

100

50

0

150

200

01Mar 01Apr 01May 01Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01Sep 01Oct 01Nov 01Dec

Reported deaths 7 day moving average

Cumulative cases predicted to December 25:531 300 to 577 000

Cumulative deaths predicted to December 25: 14 410 to 14 920

Short-term forecast indicates continuation of rapid growth

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Extrapolation based on recent trends using a forecasting model (with ranges of uncertainty)

Cum

ula

tive

num

ber

of c

ase

s

Cumulatively reported cases in Canada by December 5 Prediction to December 25

Lower 95% prediction limit Upper 95% prediction limit Cases added since December 5 when the prediction was made

Cum

ula

tive

num

ber

of d

eath

s

Longer-range forecast shows overall for Canada we remain on a rapid growth trajectory

• If we maintain the current number of people we contact each day – the epidemic will continue to resurge: Grey line

• If we increase the current number of people we contact each day – the epidemic is forecast to resurge faster and stronger: Orange line

• If we reduce the current number of people we contact each day to only essential activities through combined individual precautions and public health measures – the epidemic is forecast to come under control in most locations: Blue line

incr

eas

ed

ecre

ase

12

maintain30 000

20 000

10 000

0h

Reported cases

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Methods: Anderson SC et al. 2020. Estimating the impact of COVID-19 control measures using a Bayesian model of physical distancing. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20070086v1

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Combined efforts of Canadians and Public health are needed now and through the holidays

Plan Safer Holidays with the Public Health Agency of Canada’s COVID-19: Plan a safe holiday or celebration planning guide: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/guidance-documents/plan-safe-holiday-celebration.html

• Nationally, we remain on a rapid growth trajectory.

• When we work together to implement and adhere to more stringent controls, we can bend the curve

• Safe and effective vaccines are in sight but our combined efforts are urgently needed to prevent severe illness and death, and reduce strain on hospitals and public health systems

• Always layer up with essential public health practices

.

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APPENDIX

15

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Each new case in Canada is spreading infection to more than one person, keeping the epidemic in a growth pattern

Data as of December 7, 2020 Calculations are based on date of case report

Since mid-August Canada’s Rt has been consistently > 1

When Rt is consistently > 1, the epidemic is growing

Canada’s Rt over time

Long-range forecast indicates that a stronger response is needed now in all large Provinces to slow the spread of COVID-19

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