enabling 100s gw of solar - energy.gov · solar eclipse –march 20,2015 10 electrical grids in...
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energy.gov/sunshot
Enabling 100s GW of Solar
@SunShot Solar Forecasting Workshop
Guohui Yuan, PhD
8/3/2016
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Growth of Solar in the U.S.
2
Installed solar generation capacity rapid
increasing
(>29 GW cumulative PV in H1 2016)
(> 1,000,000 PV systems installed)
Installed cost of solar system rapidly
decreasing
(> 60% drop since 2010)
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SunShot Initiative
3
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SunShot Systems Integration Vision
To proactively anticipate and address potential challenges under a scenario in which hundreds (100s) of gigawatts of solar energy are interconnected to the electricity grid, the SI sub-program has identified the challenges to be addressed in four broad, inter-related areas:
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SunShot Systems Integration
ENERGISE* (2016)
SuNLaMP (2015)
SHINES (2015)
SUNRISE (2013)
National Lab R&D (2012)
Hi-Pen (2012)
Plug and Play (2012)
Solar Forecasting (2012)
SEGIS-AC (2011)
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Solar Integration Studies
• SunShot Vision Study (2012)
• Hawaii Solar Integration Study (2012)
• Western Wind Solar Integration Study (WWSIS, 2014)
• Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS,
2016)
• )
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Impact to Generation Dispatch
How to enable dispatch of solar power plants in a fashion that is economical and reliable? Comparable to or better than conventional power plants?
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
PV Penetration and Hour
Ge
ne
rati
on
(M
W)
PV
Gas
TurbinePumped
StorageHydro
Combined
CycleImports
Coal
Nuclear
Wind
Geo
Exports
Base 2% 6% 10%
(no PV)
Denholm et al. (2011). Simulated Dispatch in California for a Spring Day with PV
Penetration from 0-10% by energy on annual basis
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Variability of Solar and Net Load (1)
CAISO “Duck Curve”
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Variability of Solar and Net Load (2)
HECO “Nessie Curve”
Load Zone 1 Load Zone 2 Load Zone 3
Regional Supply and
Demand Balances
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Solar Eclipse – March 20,2015
10
Electrical grids in Europe succeeded in keeping the lights on!!
Germany – call on extra reserves; Italy – turned off all large scale (>100kW)
PV plants. However, it illustrates the big challenges ahead in grid operation
with high penetration of solar.
(Photo credit cloudfront.net) (Graph by Roger Andrews)
13GW
4.8GW
20GW
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Solar Forecasting Past, Present, and Future
Solar Penetration Level
So
lar
Fo
recasti
ng
Perf
orm
an
ce
Satellite-
Based
TMY
Low High
High
Low
Current
Research
(IBM, UCAR)
?
NWP-based
Ground-
Sensor
Based