end q3-2020 exchequer returns · 2020. 10. 2. · • exchequer deficit of €9.4 billion at end-q3...

End Q3-2020 Exchequer Returns

John McCarthy

Chief Economist, Department of Finance

2nd October 2020

2 Rialtas na hÉireann | Government of Ireland

Exchequer position: summary


Exchequer position – overview

Jan-Sept, 2020 € million year-on-year change, %

Total revenue 55,428 2.1

: tax revenue 39,568 -3.0

: non-tax revenue 5,583 32.3

of which: NAMA transfer to Exchequer [ = gg neutral ] 2,000 -

: appropriations-in-aid 10,277 10.4

Total expenditure 64,800 19.4

: current 53,627 22.6

: capital 4,776 16.8

: non-voted expenditure 6,397 -0.5

Exchequer balance -9,373 -

gg = general government

= main measure of fiscal position


Revenue developments


Tax revenue to end-q3, 2020: 2020 vs 2019, € millions

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

excise duties

corporation tax

income taxes

VAT

other

total

2019

2020

total tax receipts = €39.6 bn

- €1.2 bn

- 3.0% year-on-year


Individual tax headings, year to end-q3 2020

q1-q3 2020 change vs q1-q3 2019

outturn, €m €m per cent

Income Tax 15,429 -323 -2.1

VAT 9,868 -2,444 -19.9

Corporation Tax 7,469 1,631 27.9

Excise 3,794 -571 -13.1

Stamps 935 -31 -3.2

CGT 299 5 1.8

Motor Tax 732 -27 -3.5

Customs 185 -66 -26.4

CAT 192 8 -4.6

Unallocated 664 605 -

Total 39,568 -1,213 -3.0

Note figures are rounded


Expenditure developments


Voted^ current expenditure to end-q3, 2020 vs 2019, €millions

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

total

social protection

health

transport

other

2019

2020

current expenditure = €53.7 bn→ €9.9 bn

→ 22.6% year-on-year increase

additional Covid-related expenditure on social protection → €6.9 bn

→ 45.4% year-on-year

additional Covid-related expenditure on health→ €2.0 bn

→ 15.9% year-on-year

^ gross figures


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

total

business

education

transport

other

2019

2020

capital spending = €4.8 bn→ €0.7 bn

→ 16.8% year-on-year increasecovid-related funding to business

Voted capital expenditure to end-q2, 2020 vs 2019, €millions

^ gross figures


Conclusion


Summary

• End-Q3: tax revenue = €39.6 billion

- annual decrease of €1.2 billion

- VAT and Excise down €3 billion on 2019

annual increase of 1.1 per cen PANDEMIC-related

• End-Q3: gross voted expenditure = €58.4 bn.- €10.6 billion ahead on last year

- current = 22.6 per cent ahead of 2019

- capital = 16.8 per cent ahead of 2019

• Exchequer deficit of €9.4 billion at end-Q3 2020- deterioration of €9.4 billion vs. first small surplus at end-Q3 2019

- primarily driven by increases in expenditure resulting from Covid-19

• General Government deficit larger – set out in “White Paper” [ Friday 9/10/20 ]- local authority deficit

- social insurance fund deficit

- NAMA = ‘financial transaction’

- other


Annex


Unprecedented surge in household saving - data published this morning

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Household Savings Rate, savings as per cent of disposable income

Residual HH savings ratio Long Term Average

unprecedented figure

end q3-2020 exchequer returns · 2020. 10. 2. · • exchequer deficit of €9.4 billion at end-q3...

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