Energy and the Fossil-Fuel Age

V. Smil, “Energy in World History”

• “Fundamentally, no civilization on Earth can be anything but a solar society…” p. 157

• “Whereas preindustrial societies tapped virtually … inexhaustible (solar) energy flows, modern civilization depends on extracting …finite fossil energy that could not be replenished even in 100 million years.” p. 157

• “Unlike its predecessors, fossil-fueled civilization cannot last thousands of years.” p.158

Six Stages of the Energy Crisis

• Between 1955 and 1971, demand in the U.S. was outstripping supply

• 1972 rise in oil prices – OPEC• 1973-74 – Embargo and panic• 1975-78 -- President Ford – focus almost

entirely on supply – no long term policy• 1979 – Iran and a Second Oil Crisis• 1980-84 – Regan Era – OPEC

overproduction and new sources

Nye – pp.222-3: “The oil shock of 1973-74 was a symptom, not a cause. The shortages revealed the

energy dependence and the vulnerability that the United States had been building up for decades. The high-energy middle-class standard of living was not a victim of the energy crisis; it was the

source of the crisis. Compared with equally affluent Europeans, Americans used roughly twice as much energy per capita. Half the difference was directly

attributable to their transportation systems, and much of the rest was due to their preference for

widely spaced detached houses.

We will mine more, drill more, cut more timber."

--Secretary of the Interior James Watt

World energy use

Coal

Nuclear

Oil (34.9%)

Gas

Hydro

Biomass

Geothermal, wind, solar, etc.

RE (13.4%)

Total

~400 Quadrillion Btu

World: ~84 million barrels/day; US: ~21 million barrels/day

U.S. Energy Consumption

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006

U.S. Energy Production

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006

Electricity Generation

Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2006

Fertilizer Production Efficiency

Energy and Crop Yield

Frank Moore – Black Pillow (1996)

Turning Petroleum into Food or Fuel

World per capita cereal production

0.25

0.27

0.29

0.31

0.33

0.35

0.37

0.39

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

To

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Cereal Shortfall

M. King HubbertOctober 5th, 1903 -- October 11th, 1989 "Our

ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know."M. King Hubbert