energy and the process of innovation

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Energy and The Process of Innovation Stephan Dolezalek VantagePoint Venture Partners April 8, 2010

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Presented by Stephan Dolezalek of VantagePoint Venture Partners, April 8, 2010 at the Spring 2010 Energy Management and Innovation Center, McCombs School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Energyand

The Process of Innovation

Stephan DolezalekVantagePoint Venture Partners

April 8, 2010

Page 2: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Page 2

VPVP CleanTech Portfolio

Electrificationof Transport

Energy Storage

Grid Management

LED Lighting andBuilding Efficiency

Power Generation

Bio-chemical

Waste to Energy

Silicon Film Photovoltaic Cells

Senergen Devices, Inc.

Solid oxide fuel cellLi-ion batteries Utility grade storage

Advanced nanosilicon cathodes Electric vehicle enablement Electric vehicle

Energy control systems Home energy solutions – North America

Home energy solutions - Europe

LED light bulbLED arrays

Utility-scale solar thermal

Municipal waste conversionWastewater recoveryEnergy from Black Liquor

CIGS panels BIPV 3rd generation solar cells

High efficiency windows

Bio butanol Algal biofuelsCellulosic ethanol

LED wafersNext-gen LEDsDigital Controls

Next-gen turbine design

Page 3: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Page 3

Global Strategic Partners

(PG&E affiliate)

Meaningful Contributions Formal partnership agreement Investors in VantagePoint; co-

investors in portfolio companies Technical and market diligence Industry sector insights Deal sourcing Engagement with portfolio companies

– Commercialization and scale-up

– International expansion

– M&A

Current engagements with Adura, Better Place, Bridgelux, BrightSource, Tendril, Premium Power, SuperBulbs

To be

announced…

Page 4: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Innovation Drives Economic Growth

Renewable Energy

Electric Transport

LED Lighting

Energy Storage

Energy Efficiency

Smart Grid

Water Technologies

Biomaterials and Biochemicals

(with edits to 6th wave)

Page 5: Energy and the Process of Innovation

What it takes to build one transformational companyINVENTION AND

INNOVATION

ENTREPRENEURSHIP

GROWTH CAPITAL

MANAGEMENT

PARTNERSHIP

EXECUTION…..

$valuation

Page 6: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Page 6

1990’s European Entrepreneur Today’s American Entrepreneur The New Global Entrepreneur

Perspective Matters

Those things

would be

great as

long as

I still get

my pension

I don’thave to

give up ona good

salary to getthese stock

options do I?

I wanteverythingthey wantand I don’tneed muchto pay the

rent and for food

Page 7: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Page 7

Res

ultWell Intentioned Means of Protection vs Loss:

•Sarbanes Oxley•Accounting Treatment of Stock Options•SEC Regulatory Changes•Taxation of Carried Interest•Attempts to Decrease Volatility•Corporate Taxation Hikes

Can We afford the Consequences?•Fewer US IPO’s•Job Losses•Fewer Companies Created•Fewer Venture Firms•Protection of Incumbents

The Land of Equal Opportunity

‘New jobs come from new companies, not from small or big business’2009 Kaufman Foundation Study

Page 8: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Page 8

So how did we get from here…

Page 9: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Page 9

To here (in less than 5 years)?

Now Everyone has an Electric

Page 10: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Page 10

2005 2006 2007 2008

VPVP invests in Tesla Motors

GM begins working on

the VoltGM’s Bob Lutz on

Tesla: “That tore it for me,” says Lutz. “If some

Silicon Valley startup can solve this equation, no one is going to tell me anymore that it’s

unfeasible.”

VPVP invests in Better Place

2009

2009 Frankfurt Auto Show

Example of rapid industry transformation Electric vehicles: From “dead” to industry-wide in less than 5 years

“Who Killed the Electric Car” documentary released, profiling the short-lived EV experiments of the 1990s

From the Credit Suisse October 2009 “Electric Vehicles” report:• “Electric vehicles offer one of

the fastest growth stories over the next 20 years”

• “Nearly every auto-maker has plans to develop electric

vehicles, with many models targeted to launch in 2010”GM CEO Rick Wagoner’s speech

opening the 2007 L.A. Auto Show: “At the end of the day, the

transformation from mechanical automobiles to vehicles that run on electricity will be as important as the

transition from horses to horsepower.”

20042003

GM’s Bob Lutz to Newsweek: “The electrification of the

automobile is inevitable." *

GM’s Bob Lutz proposes that GM pursue an electric vehicle again – but the idea "bombed"

inside GM, he says. "I got beaten down a number of times.” *

Tesla announces it will release a sports car using the same Li-

Ion batteries GM declined to use when Lutz pushed in 2003

GM’s new Volt is showcased at the 2007 Detroit

Auto Show

GM had produced the EV1 from 1996 to 1999 (for lease

only), but then shut down the production line and pulled the

cars off the road.

From Automotive News: “Virtually every automaker is displaying an electric vehicle

or plug-in hybrid.”

* Newsweek, Jan. 8, 2008. “Bob Lutz: The Man Who Revived the Electric Car.”

VPVP proposes strategic

partnership with Ford and Chrysler

(unsuccessful) Renault and Better Place commit to bring 100,000

Fluence ZE EVs to market

(Tracing the experience of GM and VantagePoint)

Better Place in talks with other major automakers

Page 11: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Page 11

Try to buy one of these recently?

Remember how hard TV manufacturers fought the requirement to cross overto digital broadcasting; saying customers would never switch in time?

Page 12: Energy and the Process of Innovation

LED’s are changing more than just TV

Page 12

Page 13: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Moore’s law for Lighting – Haitz’s Law

Page 13

Page 14: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Page 14

0

50

100

150

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

$4,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Number of LCD TVs shipped(Bars)

ASP of a 32 inch LCD TV(Line)

0

500

1,000

1,500

0.00

1.00

2.00

$3.00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

First Solar capacity MW(Bars)

First Solar cost/watt(Line)

Costs Decline as New Technologies Achieve Scale

Source: DisplaySearch; First Solar company website

LCD Televisions Solar PV

Page 15: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Fresh off this morning’s press

Page 15

Page 16: Energy and the Process of Innovation

LED’s meet SolarInnovation Merges Light Absorption and Generation

Page 16

Page 17: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Page 17

1879: Edison incandescent light bulb

Modernization is the Ultimate Driver of Change

1901: First GE alternating current power coal plant

1885: First internal combustion engine automobile produced

1930s: Build- out of today’s electricity grid

1850 1925 19501875 1900

The Stone Age Didn’t End Because we Ran Out of Stones

Horse to Automobiles 1900 – >200k horses in NYC/automobile introduced 1912 – More automobiles than horses 1917 – 0 horses

Landlines to Mobile 1991 – 16M mobile phones globally 1996 – 100M mobile phones globally 2000 – 740M mobile phones globally 2010 – 4.6B mobile phones globally

We’ve seen this movie before:Technological innovation yields better and cheaper ways of doing things

Page 18: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Page 18

0

100

200

300M

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Number of U.S. Subscribers

Landline

Mobile

0

10

20

30M

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

U.S. Camera Sales

Film

Digital

Telecom: from landlines to mobile

Photography: from film to digital Energy: from fossil fuels to renewables

History has taught us that once industry-transforming tipping points are reached, there is no looking back. In 2008, renewables represented nearly half of all net new capacity installed.

Source: US OECD

Source: PMA Marketing Research;

Source: EIA

Page 19: Energy and the Process of Innovation

With every major wave of innovation, only a small number of winners emerges early on

1990 20001980

Perso

nal

com

pute

rs

Software

Networki

ng

Biotec

h

Inte

rnet

Win

dSol

ar (P

V)

Elect

ric v

ehicl

es (E

Vs)

EV infra

stru

ctur

eSol

ar-th

erm

alSm

art g

ridPow

er s

tora

geBio

fuel

s

Major winners in CleanTech are now starting to emerge

2010In

tern

et 2

.0

2020

Page 20: Energy and the Process of Innovation

Page 20

CleanTech Industries are Large, Diverse and Global

Electricity$1.9 trillion on

traditional generation

Biofuels$442 billion on fuel

energy spend

Water$480 billion on

water infrastructure sales

Smart Grid$6.0 trillion on

commercial and residential energy spend

Storage$374 billion on

peak load energy

Buildings & Materials

$665 billion on concrete and packaging

EVs$1.1 trillion on

car sales

Lighting$115 billion on electricity and

fixtures

2008 Spend

2008 Spend

Source: McKinsey

Page 21: Energy and the Process of Innovation

How does the development of clean energy technologies compare to past transformations?

Similarities Differences Use Technology to transform

industries that have barely changed in decades

Substantial venture capital invested in the most promising ideas

Corporate partnering is essential, as it was for biotech

The utilities are critical gatekeepers, as were the major carriers for telecom

Challenges:

– Much larger scale industries

– Higher capitalization requirements

– Intense international competition from others who have “seen this movie before”

Opportunities:

– Cross-pollination of key technologies

– Greater capital availability (e.g., global funds)

– Highly experienced managers and investors

– Availability of outsourced manufacturing

– Leading incumbents have seen successful partnering models (e.g., in pharma/biotech)

Page 22: Energy and the Process of Innovation

A venture capital view of Natural Gas

Page 22

•Co-fired solar thermal and natural gas to produce 24 by 7 base-load and variablepower using shared infrastructure•Treatment of frac water for re-use in fracturing and other activities•Natural gas fed fuel cells andreformers for retail electricity