energy at iiasa · nakicenovic. 2014 #2. energy, climate and sustainability. building on past...
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Energy at IIASAOverview & Highlights
Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director General and Deputy CEOInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisProfessor Emeritus of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology
UK Panel VisitIIASA, Laxenburg – 11-12 December 2014
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Energy, Climate and SustainabilityBuilding on Past Successes
1981 19981978 1986
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www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
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Co-President:Ged Davis, President, Forescene S. A. (2007-2012)
Council Members:1. Ged Davis, President, Forescene S. A. (2007-2012)2. Christoph Frei, World Energy Council (2009-2012)3. Robert T Watson, (formerly) Chief Scientist, UK Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs, and Director of Strategic Development at Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia (2007-2012)
Convening Lead Author:1. Lisa Emberson, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York
UK Contributions to GEA
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Authors:1. Jennie Barron, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)2. Brenda Boardman, Environmental Change Institute (ECI),
Oxford University and UK Energy Research Centre3. Ian Bryden, University of Edinburgh4. Daniel Curtis, Environmental Change Institute,
Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford 5. John Davison, IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme6. Nick J. Eyre, University of Oxford7. Ian Fairlie, Consultant8. David Fisk, Imperial College London 9. Kevin Hicks, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) at York, University of York10. Morna Isaac, Eco Ltd 11. Kathryn Janda, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University 12. James Keirstead, Imperial College London13. Catherine Mitchell, University of Exeter
UK Contributions to GEA
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Authors:14. Victoria Novikova, Oxford University Centre for the Environment,
Environmental Change Institute15. David Satterthwaite, International Institute for Environment
and Development (IIED)16. Nilay Shah, Engineering for Sustainable Development,
Imperial College 17. Adrian Smith, University of Sussex18. Ricardo Soares de Oliveira, Department of Politics and International Relations,
University of Oxford19. Julia Steinberger, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment20. Alice Sverdlik, International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)21. Richard Taylor, International Hydropower Association22. Harry Vallack, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) at York23. Jim Watson, Imperial College in Engineering for Sustainable Development 24. Paul Wilkinson, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine25. Charlie Wilson, University East Anglia Tyndall Centre and IIASA 26. Iain Wright, BP International
UK Contributions to GEA
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Reviewers:1. Geoff Dutton, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory2. Peter Fraenkel, Marine Current Turbines Ltd3. Antony Froggatt, Chatham House4. Michael Grubb, Cambridge University5. Steven Hunt, Practical Action Consulting6. Michael Jefferson, London Metropolitan Business School7. Ilkka Keppo, University College London8. Walt Patterson, Chatham House9. Teodoro Sanchez, Practical Action10. Jim Skea, UK Energy Research Centre11. Andrew Stirling, University of Sussex
UK Contributions to GEA
Launch 30.11.2012Ged Davis, Forescene S. A.Nebojsa Nakicenovic, IIASAChris Llewellyn Smith, Oxford Lisa Emberson, YorkDavid Satterthwaite, IIEDMichael Liebreich, Bloomberg
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GEA Presentation to UNSG
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Energy Access
Energy Security
Climate Change
The Key Energy Challenges
Air PollutionHealth Impacts
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Two Faces of the Athropocene
>3 billion without access to clean cooking1.5 billion without access to electricity
>3 billion without access to clean cooking1.5 billion without access to electricity
Internet Router Density(sample of 564,521 routers)
Data: Mark Crovella, Boston University, 2007
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Mapping Energy AccessFinal energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density
>3 billion without access to clean cooking1.5 billion without access to electricity
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Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3
GEA approach:Emissions inventories (GAINS)Present and planned legislation (GAINS-MESSAGE)Energy system changes and climate-pollution policies (MESSAGE)Atmospheric concentrations and dispersion (TM5/JRC)
SO2, NOx and PM2.5 Concentrations2005
WHO health guidelines
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Global PM2.5 concentrations ~12.3 µg/m3
Stringent pollution/access/climate policies by 2030
~2.6 million lives saved each year
Policies can contribute toward reaching WHO guidelines
GEA: Chapter 17 (Riahi et al, 2012; Rao et al, 2013)
(e)
2014 #15Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
MicrochipCommercial
aviation
television
Vacuum tubeOtto engine
Electric engineSteam
engine
Nuclear-energy
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Global Primary EnergyHistorical Evolution
2014 #16Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Bio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
Global Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway
2014 #17Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS
Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Global Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway
2014 #18Nakicenovic1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gm
3
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200BaselineGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Source: Fricko et al, 2014
Global Water WithdrawalsA Transformational Pathway
2014 #19Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
2030 Energy Goals●Universal Access to Modern Energy
●Double Energy Efficiency Improvement
●Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
2014 #20Nakicenovic Source: DI Analysis, 2014
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Supply Technologies Cost Trends
Source: Grubler et al, 2012
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Annual EnergyInvestments
InnovationRD&D
[billion US$2005]
MarketsFormation
[billion US$2005]
PresentInvestments[billion US$2005]
FutureInvestments[billion US$2005]
2010 2010 2010 2010 - 2030
Efficiency >> 8 ~ 5 300 300-800
Renewables > 12 ~ 20 200 300-1000
Access < 1 < 1 ~ 9 40-60
Total > 50 < 150 1250 1750–2200
Source: Grubler et al, & Riahi et al, 2011
Global Energy Investments
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Modeling of Uncertainty and Risk
Source: Krey, Riahi, 2009
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●Random walk model of invention discovery and stochastic combinationwith other technologies into energychains and systems
●Evolutionary selection environment- uncertain increasing returns- market share gains f (rel. advantage)- externalities (stochastic C-tax)
●Evolution of complexity is function of learning rate and innovation impatience
●Complexity lock-in requires“gales of creative destruction”
The Evolution of Technological Complexity – Agent-based ApproachTieju Ma, Arnulf Grubler, Nebojsa Nakicenovic and W. Brian Arthur
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0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Tota
l Glo
bal P
olic
y Cos
ts (2
010-
2030
) Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point
Source: McCollum, Krey, Riahi, 2012
Energy Policy Costs (% GDP)
2014 #26Nakicenovic UN General Assembly resolution 65/151
● Energy Access to clean cooking and electricity
● Energy security, pollution/health, and climate change: multiple objectives, their synergies and trade-offs
Interactive Policy Tools (GEF)IIASA-UNIDO-GEF: Cape Verde, 2012
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Climate Change
Maximum FufillmentMinimum Fufillment
Energy Security
Energy Affordability
Health / Air Pollution
Ancilliary Risks
Energy Access
GEA Pathway Analysis
Policy Tools for Decision Making
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GEA-Databasewww.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/geadb