© OECD/IEA 2014 © OECD/IEA 2014

Energy and the Climate Negotiations: Parts of the landscape

Philippe Benoit, Head, EE and Environment Division, IEA

Christina Hood, Environment and Climate Change Unit

CCXG, Paris France

Wednesday, 17 September 2014

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2011 2020 2030 2040 2050

Nuclear 7%

Renewables 30%

End-use fuel switching 9%

CCS 14%

End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38%

Gt CO2

fuel switching 2% Power generation efficiency and

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tota

l prim

ary

ener

gy d

eman

d (E

J)

ESCI

I (20

11=1

00)/

CO

2 em

issio

ns (G

t CO

2)

ESCII

Energy demand

Energy CO2 Emissions: Intensity x Demand

CO2

In 6DS

© OECD/IEA 2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

ESCI

I (10

0 =

2010

car

bon

inte

nsity

) 6oC

4oC

2oC

The carbon intensity of energy supply has been stable for the last 40 years, but needs to decrease rapidly in future.

The Energy Mix (ESCII: tracking the CO2 intensity of global energy supply)

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Energy Demand: Different levels for different emissions

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We are not on track

Renewable power

Smart grids

Gas-fired power

Nuclear power

Coal-fired power

Carbon capture and storage

Industry

Biofuels

Buildings

Transport

Electric and Hybrid electric vehicles

Co-generation and district heating and cooling

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Power generation

Industry

Transport

Other

Room to manoeuvre

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Gt

2 °C trajectory

Lock-in of existing infrastructure

2017

Planned fossil fuel infrastructure through 2017 will generate all energy emissions under 2DS through 2035

35

“Lock-In” of 2 degree Emissions

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Unlocking action

Policy Options

Direct regulations Supply/demand balances Price

Retirement of coal plant

- ownership decision - lifetime limits - phase-out

- fleet-wide emissions performance standard - Renewables regulation - demand reductions

- fuel tax changes - carbon pricing - preferential renewables tariffs

Change dispatch of existing power plant fleet

- “clean-first” dispatch - priority dispatch of renewables

- fleet-wide emissions performance standard

- fuel tax changes carbon pricing - removal of fossil fuel subsidies

Efficiency retrofit of coal plant

- targets for plant retrofit rates

- fleet-wide emissions performance standard

- carbon pricing - removal of fossil fuel subsidies

Retrofit of coal plant for CCS

- regulated lifetime limits - CCS mandates

- CCS trading schemes - fleet-wide emissions performance standard

- carbon pricing - preferential tariffs for CCS generation

“Un-locking” high emission assets

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Finding and Exploiting cross-disciplinary synergies

GHG abatement

Energy

CC

Air Quality

Health

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Finding and exploiting cross-disciplinary synergies outside climate

GHG abatement

Energy

CC

Road congestion

Transport

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Implications for UNFCCC 1. Multiple timeframes

Short term (pre-2020)

Medium term (2020-2030)

Long term (beyond 2030)

Medium-term

GHG Goal

Prepare to implement

Longer-term consistency?

Maximise pre-2020

action

Long-term

GHG Goal

Medium-term consistency?

Shift RD&D, investment patterns

2OC-consistent RD&D, investment

Longer-term consistency?

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Implications for UNFCCC 1. Multiple timeframes

Short term (pre-2020)

Medium term (2020-2030)

Long term (beyond 2030)

RD&D, supported

early deployment

e.g. electric vehicles

Reduces emissions if

replaces coal

Helps but need to begin shift to lower

emissions

Higher emissions vs. Phase down use, or apply

CCS

Widespread deployment

Commercial deployment

e.g. natural gas for power generation

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Implications for UNFCCC 1. Multiple timeframes

Options for 2015 agreement: • Global long-term goal • Consistent short- and long-term national GHG goals • Track and report progress toward both short- and

long-term goals. [for long-term, e.g. investment, RD&D, policy] • INDCs for short-term actions that impact long-term

emissions [e.g. percentage of zero-carbon in new power generation]

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Implications for UNFCCC 2. Metrics

Energy Sector Actions GHG targets

Are critical for achieving

Are not the only (or primary) driver of

Other criteria: e.g., Air Quality

Road Congestion

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Implications for UNFCCC 2. Metrics

Options for 2015 agreement: • Formally recognise actions taken outside UNFCCC • Track (nationally) and compile (globally) progress in

key metrics of energy sector transformation • INDCs for energy metrics, in support of GHG goals

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This session 1. How can energy sector objectives and institutions be

best leveraged to help meet climate goals? 2. How could processes and institutions inside and outside

the UNFCCC best contribute to accelerating RD&D of clean energy technologies?

After lunch 1. Which elements in the 2015 Agreement are key to

influencing investment behaviour in the energy sector? 2. How could the 2015 Agreement send “investable” long-

term signals to the energy sector?

Questions for Discussion