energy critical elements: securing materials for emerging technologies

8/7/2019 Energy Critical Elements: Securing Materials for Emerging Technologies

1/28

2

4.003

5

BBoron

10.811

6

CCarbon

12.0107

7

NNitrogen

14.00674

8

OOxygen

15.9994

9

FFluorine

18.9984032

10

NeNeon

20.1797

13

AlAluminum

26.981538

14

SiSilicon

28.0855

15

PPhosphorus

30.973761

16

SSulfur

32.066

17

ClChlorine

35.4527

18

ArArgon

39.948

28

Niickel

6934

29

CuCopper

63.546

30

ZnZinc

65.39

31

69.723

32

72.61

33

AsArsenic

74.92160

34

78.96

35

BrBromine

79.904

36

KrKrypton

83.80

46

6.42

47

107.8682

48

CdCadmium

112.411

49

114.818

50

SnTin

118.710

51

SbAntimony

121.760

52

127.60

53

IIodine

126.90447

54

XeXenon

131.29

78

5.078

79

AuGold

196.96655

80

HgMercury

200.59

81

TlThallium

204.3833

82

PbLead

207.2

83

BiBismuth

208.98038

84

PoPolonium

(209)

85

AtAstatine

(210)

86

RnRadon

(222)

HeHelium

GaGallium

GeGermanium

SeSelenium

Pdladium

AgSilver

InIndium

TeTellurium

Pttinum

Tbrbium

DyDysprosium

YbYtterbium

LuLutetium

65

92534

66

162.50

67

HoHolmium

164.93032

68

ErErbium

167.26

69

TmThulium

168.93421

70

173.04

71

174.967

Energy Critical Elements:

A REPORT BY THE APS PANEL ON PUBLIC AFFAIRS & THE MATERIALS RESEARCH SOCIET

Securing Materials for Emerging Technologies


2/28

ABOUT APS & POPA

Founded in 1899 to advance and diuse the knowledge o

physics, the American Physical Society is now the nations

leading organization o physicists with more than 48,000

members in academia, national laboratories and industry.

APS has long played an active role in the ederal govern-

ment; its members serve in Congress and have held posi-

tions such as Science Advisor to the President o the United

States, Director o the CIA, Director o the National Science

Foundation and Secretary o Energy.

This report was overseen by the APS Panel on Public Aairs

(POPA). POPA routinely produces reports on timely topics

being debated in government so as to inorm the debate

with the perspectives o physicists working in the relevant

issue areas.

ABOUT MRS

The Materials Research Society (MRS) is an international or-

ganization o nearly 16,000 materials researchers rom aca-

demia, industry, and government, and a recognized leader

in promoting the advancement o interdisciplinary materi-

als research to improve the quality o lie. MRS members

are engaged and enthusiastic proessionals hailing rom

physics, chemistry, biology, materials science, mathematics

and engineering the ull spectrum o materials research.

Headquartered in Warrendale, Pennsylvania, MRS member-

ship now spans over 80 countries, with more than 40% o

its members residing outside o the United States. MRSorganizes high-quality scientifc meetings, attracting over

13,000 attendees annually and acilitating interactions

among a wide range o experts rom the cutting edge o

the global materials community. MRS is also a recognized

leader in education, outreach and advocacy or scientifc

research.

This policy report was supported by the MRS Government

Aairs Committee.

REPORT COMMITTEE

Robert Jae, Chair, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Jonathan Price, Co-Chair, University of Nevada, Reno

Gerbrand Ceder, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Rod Eggert, Colorado School of Mines

Tom Graedel, Yale University

Karl Gschneidner, Iowa State University, Ames Laboratory

Murray Hitzman, Colorado School of Mines

Frances Houle, Invisage Technologies, Inc.

Alan Hurd, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Ron Kelley, Materials Research Society

Alex King, Ames Laboratory

Delia Milliron, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory

Brian Skinner, Yale University

Francis Slakey, American Physical Society

APS STAFF

Jeanette Russo


3/28

A number o chemical elements that were once laboratory curiosities now gure prominently in new

technologies like wind turbines, solar energy collectors, and electric cars. I widely deployed, such

inventions have the capacity to transorm the way we produce, transmit, store, or conserve energyTo meet our energy needs and reduce our dependence on ossil uels, novel energy systems must

be scaled rom laboratory, to demonstration, to widespread deployment.

Energy-related systems are typically materials intensive. As new technologies are widely deployed

signicant quantities o the elements required to manuacture them will be needed. However, many

o these unamiliar elements are not presently mined, rened, or traded in large quantities, and

as a result, their availability might be constrained by many complex actors. A shortage o these

energy-critical elements (ECEs) could signicantly inhibit the adoption o otherwise game-changing

energy technologies. This, in turn, would limit the competitiveness o U.S. industries and the domestic

scientic enterprise and, eventually, diminish the quality o lie in the United States.

ECEs include rare earths, which received much media attention in recent months, but potentially

include more than a dozen other chemical elements. The ECEs share common issues and should beconsidered together in developing policies to promote smooth and rapid deployment o desirable

technologies.

Several actors can contribute to limiting the domestic availability o an ECE. The element mighsimply not be abundant in Earths crust or might not be concentrated by geological processes. An

element might only occur in a ew economic deposits worldwide, or production might be dominated

by and, thereore, subject to manipulation by one or more countries. The United States already relie

on other countries or more than 90% o most o the ECEs we identiy. Many ECEs have, up to this

point, been produced in relatively small quantities as by-products o primary metals rening. Join

production complicates attempts to ramp up output by a large actor. Because they are relativelyscarce, extraction o ECEs oten involves processing large amounts o material, sometimes in ways tha

do unacceptable environmental damage. Finally, the time required or production and utilization to

adapt to uctuations in price and availability o ECEs is long, making planning and investment dicult

This report surveys these potential constraints on the availability o ECEs and then identies ve

specic areas o potential action by the United States to insure their availability: 1) ederal agency

coordination; 2) inormation collection, analysis, and dissemination; 3) research, development, andworkorce enhancement; 4) ecient use o materials; and, 5) market interventions. Throughout this

report, narratives on particular ECEs are provided to clariy these ve action areas.

The reports specic recommendations, which can be ound in their entirety in Section 4, are summarized as ollows:

Coordination

The Oce o Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) should create a subcommittee within theNational Science and Technology Council (NSTC) to 1) examine the production and use o energy

critical elements within the United States and, 2) coordinate the ederal response.

Inormation

The U.S. government should gather, analyze, and disseminate inormation on energy-critical ele

ments across the lie-cycle supply chain, including discovered and potential resources, production

use, trade, disposal, and recycling. The entity undertaking this task should be a Principal Statistica

Agency with survey enorcement authority. It should regularly survey emerging energy technolo-

gies and the supply chain or elements throughout the periodic table with the aim o identiyingcritical applications, as well as potential shortalls.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


4/28

2 Energy-Critical Elements

Research & Development

The ederal government should establish a research and development efort ocused on energy-critical elements and possible substitutes that can enhance vital aspects o the supply chain,

including geological deposit modeling, mineral extraction and processing, material characterization

and substitution, utilization, manuacturing, recycling, and lie-cycle analysis. Such an efort would

address critical, but manageable, workorce needs.

Materials Eciency

The ederal government should establish a consumer-oriented Critical Materials designation or

ECE-related products. At the same time, steps should be taken to improve rates o post-consumer

collection o industrial and consumer products containing ECEs, beginning with an examination

o the numerous methods explored and implemented in various states and countries.

Market Interventions

The Committee does not recommend that the ederal government establish non-deense-related

economic stockpiles o ECEs with the exception o one element: helium. Measures should be

adopted that both conserve and enhance the nations helium reserves.

These recommendations call or actions that all within accepted roles or government: statisticalinormation gathering, support or research and workorce development, and incentives or select

activities. Taken together, these recommendations will work to enhance the domestic availabilityo ECEs.


5/28

3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction

What is an Energy-Critical Element? .........................................................................................4

Constraints on Availability of Energy-Critical Elements

A. Crustal abundance, concentration, and distribution........................................................8

B. Geopolitical risks ............................................................................................................................9

C. The risks o joint production ....................................................................................................10

D. Environmental and social concerns ......................................................................................11

E. Response times in production and utilization ....................... ....................... .....................12

Responses: Findings and Recommendations

A. Coordination .................................................................................................................................14

B. Inormation ....................................................................................................................................14

C. Research, development, and workorce issues .................... ........................ .....................15

D. The role o material eciency .................................................................................................17

E. Possible market interventions .................................................................................................18

Appendices

A. Reerences......................................................................................................................................20

B. Committee Member Biographies ...........................................................................................21


6/28


The twin pressures o increasing demand or energy and concern about climate change have

stimulated research into new sources o energy and novel ways to store, transmit, transorm,

and conserve it. Scientic advances have enabled researchers to identiy chemical elements

with properties that meet their specic needs and to employ these elements in energy-related

technologies. Elements, such as gallium, indium, lanthanum, neodymium, and tellurium, that wereonce laboratory curiosities, now prominently gure in discussions o novel energy systems. Many

o these elements are not presently mined, rened, or traded in large quantities.

To meet energy needs, new technologies must be scaled rom laboratory, to demonstration, toimplementation. Many energy-related systems, such as wind turbines and solar energy collectors, are

materials intensive. I new technologies like these are to be widely deployed, the elements required

to manuacture them will be needed in signicant quantities.

We have coined the term energy-critical element (ECE) 1 to describe a class o chemical elements

that currently appear critical to one or more new, energy-related technologies. A shortage o theseelements would signicantly inhibit large-scale deployment, which could otherwise be capable

o transorming the way we produce, transmit, store, or conserve energy. We reserve the term ECEor chemical elements that have not been widely extracted, traded, or utilized in the past and are,

thereore, not the ocus o well-established and relatively stable markets.

The general subject o the availability o minerals is huge and inextricably connected to almost every

aspect o our culture and economy. We limit our attention in this report to elements that have thepotential or major impact on energy systems and or which a signicantly increased demand might

strain supply, causing price increases or unavailability, thereby discouraging the use o some newtechnologies. Our ocus is on energy technologies with the potential or large-scale deployment. We

evaluate constraints on the availability o ECEs and make recommendations that, i put into practice,

should help avoid these impediments.

This is not a report on any single ECE or group o elements like the rare earth elements (REEs) that

have recently received so much media attention. Instead, it ocuses on issues that are common tomany ECEs and on policies that could contribute to a steady and predictable supply o ECEs or the

development o satisactory substitutions.

This report presents several examples o ECEs, but it is not our intent to generate a denitive list oECEs. Indeed, any list o ECEs will change over time, as technology and other actors evolve.

A representative example o an ECE is neodymium, a component in high-eld permanent magnets(known as neodymium-iron-boron magnets), which are key components in wind turbines, hybrid

cars, and other advanced electromagnetic-to-mechanical conversion systems. Another example istellurium, an important component in thin-lm photovoltaic (TFPV) panels that may decrease the

materials cost o producing solar energy signicantly.

An element might be energy-critical or a variety o reasons. It might be intrinsically rare in Earthscrust, poorly concentrated by natural processes, or currently unavailable in the United States. Some

potential ECEs, such as tellurium and rhenium, are genuinely rare in Earths crust. 2 Rhenium, orexample, is rarer than gold by approximately a actor o ve. Others like indium, although not as rare,

are unevenly distributed in Earths crust, causing the United States to be highly reliant on imports.Still other ECEs, such as germanium, are seldom ound in concentrations that allow or economicextraction.

1. See Figure 1 or a version o the periodic table o elements in which possible ECEs are highlighted. Specifc elements

and groups o elements that gure prominently are described urther in boxes throughout the report.

2. We take all our abundance fgures rom (Lide, 2005). There is considerable debate over the precise values (a variety

o diferent sources are compared on the Wikipedia website, http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Abundances_o_the_ele-

ments_(data_page)), but the exact values are not essential to our analysis.

WHAT IS AN ENERGY-CRITICAL ELEMENT?INTRODUCTION


7/28

5

Geopolitical issues can arise when a critical element is produced in a small number o countries or

in a location subject to political instability. Technical expertise in extraction, processing, and other

technologies tends to ollow the resources, leaving the United States at a urther disadvantage when

the primary production o an element is overseas. The present concentration o REE production in

China is a particularly pertinent example. Although the United States led the world in both production

and expertise into the 1990s, over 95% o these important elements are now produced in China, and

China is rapidly becoming the center or REE extraction and processing expertise. Even i naturalresources exist in a country, a lack o expertise and extraction, rening, and processing inrastructure

can signicantly inuence international trade o ECEs, as is now the case with REEs.

Many potential ECEs are not ound in concentrations high enough to warrant extraction as a primary

product, given todays prices. Instead, these ECEs are obtained primarily as by-products, during the

rening process o other primary ores, especially copper, zinc, and lead. This applies to telluriumand indium, which are currently obtained as by-products o the electrolytic processing o copper

and zinc ores, respectively. By-production and co-production present special economic issues. Forexample, it is unlikely that the mining o copper (production value approximately $80 billion in

2009) would be driven by an increased demand or tellurium (production value approximately $30

million in 2009). However, the way that copper ore is currently processed might well be modiedto obtain more tellurium.

Figure 1. Possible Energy-Critical

Elements (ECEs) are highlighted on the

periodic table. The rare earth elements(REEs) include lanthanum (La), cerium

(Ce), praseodymium (Pr), neodymium

(Nd), promethium (Pm), samarium (Sm),

europium (Eu), gadolinium (Gd), terbium

(Tb), dysprosium (Dy), holmium (Ho),

erbium (Er), thulium (Tm), ytterbium

(Tb), and lutetium (Lu). The closely

related elements scandium (Sc) and

yttrium (Y) are oten included as well.

The REEs are considered as a amily,

although Pm is unstable, and Ho, Er,

and Tm have no energy-critical uses at

present and are omitted rom our list.

Y together with the TbLu orm theheavy rare earth elements (HREE), and

Sc plus CeGd constitute the light

rare earths (LREE). The platinum group

elements (PGEs) include ruthenium

(Ru), rhodium (Rh), palladium (Pd),

osmium (Os), iridium (Ir), and platinum

(Pt). Additional ECE candidates include

gallium (Ga), germanium (Ge), selenium

(Se), indium (In), and tellurium ( Te), all

semiconductors with applications in

photovoltaics. Cobalt (Co), helium (He),

lithium (Li), rhenium (Re) and silver (Ag)

round out the list.


8/28


Several additional actors complicate the availability o ECEs. Some potential ECEs

are toxic; others are now obtained in ways that produce environmental damage thatis unacceptable in most countries. Many ECEs are available only in low-grade ores,

which necessitates the processing o tons o rock or each gram o element recovered.

New mining ventures require long and complex permitting processes in the UnitedStates and other highly developed countries. The lag time between increased demand

and the availability o new supplies can be extensive. Recycling and the existence osecondary markets or ECEs is quite variable. For example, recycling is highly developed

or the platinum group elements (PGEs), but almost nonexistent or most other ECEs.

Sometimes, one element can be substituted or another in a new technology, but moreoten than not, substitution requires signicant research, reengineering, retooling, and

recertication with attendant delays.

A denitive list o ECEs would require extensive study based on inormation about

occurrences, reserves, extraction, processing, utilization, and recycling, much o whichis not yet available. With the understanding that our list o ECEs is illustrative, rather than

denitive, we can enumerate the elements we believe, at present, to be good candidates

or the designation o energy-critical:

Gallium, germanium, indium, selenium, silver, and tellurium, all employed in advanced

photovoltaic solar cells, especially thin-lm photovoltaics.

Dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymium, samarium (all REEs), and cobalt, used in

high-strength permanent magnets or many energy-related applications, such aswind turbines and hybrid automobiles.

Most REEs, valued or their unusual magnetic and/or optical properties. Examplesinclude gadolinium or its unusual paramagnetic qualities and europium and terbium

or their role in managing the color o uorescent lighting. Yttrium, another REE, is an

important ingredient in energy-ecient solid-state lighting.

Lithium and lanthanum, used in high perormance batteries.

Helium, required in cryogenics, energy research, advanced nuclear reactor designs,and manuacturing in the energy sector.

Platinum, palladium, and other PGEs, used as catalysts in uel cells that may nd wide

applications in transportation. Cerium, a REE, is also used as an auto-emissions catalyst.

Rhenium, used in high perormance alloys or advanced turbines.

Many o the elements on this list are presently produced in very small quantities. Forexample, in 2009, worldwide production o germanium was 140 metric tons (MT) (USGS,

2010). The production o tellurium3 was estimated at only 200 MT.

Many important elements are notably absent rom this list. Copper, aluminum, iron,

tin, and nickel are absolutely essential or energy applications. However, because they

enjoy large, mature, and vigorous markets with many suppliers, a strong demand romthe energy sector would most likely be met with a market-driven increase in supply.

For example, the broad distribution o copper and aluminum sources across the globeis illustrated in Figure 2. We omit these metals rom our consideration, because they

orm a category o their own. They share more in common with one another than withthe less amiliar elements in the ECE amily. We exclude carbon (as coal, oil, etc.) anduranium, since they have been the subject o many studies and mature regulation;

moreover, increased demand does not create novel issues or these elements, beyondthose already explored in the economic, technical, and political arenas. We exclude

elements like phosphorus and potassium or which we can see only peripheral relevance

to energy issues. Some largely manmade isotopes o elements like He-3 have important

energy-related applications (e.g., neutron detection) but have more in common with

3 Estimated, the exact amount o tellurium production is unknown.

Joint-Production

Many o the energy-critical elementsidentied in this report are produced

jointly with other elements. At mines andprocessing acilities that yield several end

products, commodities are categorized

based on their relative importance to the

overall commercial attractiveness o agiven project. These commodities can belabeled main products, co-products, or by-

products. A main product, by itsel, largelydetermines the commercial value o a

project. Co-products exist when each o two

or more elements signicantly inuencesthe ventures commercial viability. A

by-productplays a relatively minor rolein a projects commercial appeal. Many

ECEs are, at present, only obtained as by-

products o commodity metals. Since a REEmine inevitably produces some amounts

o all the rare earths and since some have

much higher economic value than others,it is useul to regard all o the REEs as

co- or by-products o one another. Eveni rare earth supply and demand were in

equilibrium on average, some REEs wouldalways be in oversupply and others would

always be in undersupply. Similarly, theplatinum group elements (PGEs) typically

occur together and are best regarded as

co-products with one another.

Among other energy-critical elements,gallium is obtained as a by-product o

aluminum and zinc processing; germanium

is typically derived as a by-product ozinc, lead, or copper rening; and indium

is a by-product o zinc, copper, or tinprocessing. Selenium and tellurium are

most oten by-products o copper rening.

In some cases, the rare-earth elements maybe the by-products o iron, zirconium, tin,

thorium, or uranium production. Helium isa by-product o natural gas production.

Sometimes joint-production has

unexpected consequences. Cadmium,

an important component in some thin-lm photovoltaics, is a by-product o zinc

processing. Because cadmium is toxic,it must be removed rom zinc during

rening. For this reason, its applications

are also limited (USGS, 2010). Thus,cadmium is inexpensive compared to its

crustal abundance (Price, 2010) and isunlikely to be scarce or unstable in price,

or the oreseeable uture. Cadmium has,

thereore, been omitted rom our listo ECEs.


9/28

7

other articial isotopes than with the ECEs in our study. Finally, there is considerable overlap between

elements that are critical or energy applications and those that are critical or national deense. REEs,

which have many deense-related applications, are an important example. We have not considerednational deense matters, nor do we consider elements like beryllium that are critical or deense

but do not have prominent energy-related applications.

In this section, we examine the potential constraints on ECE availability and provide the geological,mineralogical, economic, or political background regarding possible limitations. Where possible, we

illustrate the issues with examples taken rom our list o ECEs and provide additional inormation in

a series o sidebars that accompany the text.

Figure 2. Leading copper producing

countries in 2009 were Chile (34% o

global production), Peru (8%), U.S. (8%),

China (6%), Indonesia (6%), Australia

(6%), Russia (5%), Zambia (4%), Canada

(3%), Poland (3%), Kazakhstan (3%),

and Mexico (2%); Mongolia and the

Democratic Republic o Congo have

major, recently discovered reserves.

Leading aluminum-ore (bauxite)

producing countries in 2009 were

Australia (31%), China (18%), Brazil(14%), India (11%), Guinea (8%), Jamaica

(4%), Kazakhstan (2%), Venezuela (2%),

Suriname (2%), Russia (2%), Greece

(1%), and Guyana (0.6%); Vietnam

also has major reserves. Note that

aluminum metal production (rom

bauxite) is concentrated in countries

with inexpensive electricity (such as

Iceland) due to the energy intensive

nature o the aluminum production

process. Production data are rom the

USGS (2010), plotted on a base map rom

http://english.reemap.jp/world_e/2.

html.


10/28


A. Crustal abundance, concentration, and distribution

The average concentration o any chemical element in Earths crust (the only part o solid Earth

available to us or extraction o elements), expressed as percentage by weight, is called the crustal

abundance o that element. Earths crust is made up primarily o oxygen, silicon, and aluminum. Adozen elements in all are responsible or over 99% o the mass o Earths crust. All other elements,including those considered as ECEs in this report, are present in much lower concentrations, below

0.1% o Earths crust by weight.

Less abundant elements, including all o the ECEs, occur primarily as atomic substitutes in mineralscomposed o the common elements. When a chemical element occurs in small amounts, it does not

orm a separate mineral, but simply substitutes as a trace impurity in the crystalline structure o the

common minerals. The low concentration o these elements in the more common minerals makesthese minerals unlikely sources or economic extraction o ECEs.

Occasionally, geological processes cause a local enrichment o one or more o the scarce elementsthrough substitution or a more common element with similar chemistry. Thus, selenium and tellurium

may substitute or sulur, which has similar chemical properties. Alternatively, a rare element may

substitute in a more common mineral i its atoms have the right properties to t into the mineralscrystal structure. The substitution o REEs in yttrium and cerium phosphates, common trace minerals

in granites, is an example o this phenomenon. When this occurs and the rare elements can be

economically separated rom the mineral, the mineral becomes an ore mineral or these elements.

Production o elements involves two distinct operations. The rst is mining and, with the exception o

a ew elements (gold and some types o copper deposits), the subsequent separation o the desired

ore minerals into a concentrate. The second operation is chemical processing o the concentrate to

ree and puriy the element. It is at this stage that by-products, such as tellurium and indium, are

separated rom primary metals, such as copper and zinc. The special circumstances surroundingco- or by-production o ECEs are described urther in the section o this report titled The risks o

joint-production.

The geological occurrence o widely used elements, such as copper, zinc, and gold, is reasonably

well known, and geologists have developed sophisticated models and technologies or discoveringpotentially economic concentrations. Less is known about the geology and geochemistry o many

ECEs, since they have not been the ocus o such intensive research. Historically low demand orthese elements has meant that sucient production has been obtained rom a small number o

higher-grade deposits or as by-products rom recovery o other metals. As demand or ECEs increases,

the geochemistry and mineralogy o critical elements will have to be understood more deeply,

and methods will have to be devised to locate ECE deposits that have, so ar, gone unrecognized.

Furthermore, additional metallurgical research is required to better understand how to extract these

elements rom the diferent minerals holding them.

Past experience and a broad amiliarity with the nature and distribution o mineral deposits indicates

there is no absolute limit on the availability o any chemical element, at least in the oreseeable

uture. Articles in the popular literature [see or example Cohen (2007)], claiming that supplies oone element or another will run out in a ew years, are typically based on misunderstandings, like

a misinterpretation o the terms resources and reserves, as used in the USGS Mineral CommoditySummaries (USGS, 2010). Reserve estimates are inuenced by current demandi demand diminishes,then eforts to identiy reserves likewise diminish. Thereore, reserve estimates can be articially low,

appearing to only be capable o lasting a short period o time. In a ree-market economy, pricesrise when demand outstrips supply, and, as those prices rise, the ollowing occur: previously low-

grade, uneconomic resources become protable ores; exploration is stimulated to discover newdeposits; metallurgical research leads to new technologies or extraction; lower-priced substitutes

are employed; and recycling becomes more protable. As lower grade deposits are brought into

production, the cost o extracting a chemical element rises. So, too, do the carbon emissions andenergy required to produce the element rom ever more dilute sources. A practical limit on availability

Germanium (Ge) Abundance and concentration

Germanium (atomic number32, 0.00015% o Earths crust

by weight) is an example oan element that is constrained

in its availability, because it is

not appreciably concentratedby geological processes. Ge is

a semiconductor in the samecolumn o the periodic table

as carbon and silicon. Ge is

not particularly scarce; it istwenty times more abundant

than silver, or example.However, Ge substitutes or

other elements in minerals and

rarely orms minerals in whichit is a principal component. It

is produced primarily as a by-product o zinc extraction. Ge

is used in ber optics, inraredoptics, and as an ECE in solar

photovoltaic cells. Although

statistics on mine production oGe by country are not available,

USGS (2010) reported globalproduction in 2009 rom zinc

rening to be 140 MT, o which

71% came rom China. Forcomparison, 2009 production o

Zn was 11,100,000 MT, o which25% came rom China, the

worlds leading Zn producer.

CONSTRAINTS ON AVAILABILITY OF ENERGY-CRITICAL ELEMENTS


11/28

9

or a particular application is reached when the material is no longer available at a competitive price.

Although one can anticipate that this will come to pass or some ECEs in the long term, we believe

that short-term supply disruptions pose a more immediate threat.

Although absolute limits are not a useul way to think about potential constraints on availability,there are a number o critical issues that can afect the price and availability o ECEs in the short

term (months to years). I not anticipated, these issues can disrupt the planning and implementation

o new energy technologies. It is essential to be aware o the potentially disruptive efects o thesetransients. The transition rom reliance on primary production o a rare element rom a ew sources

to co-production with more common elements or vice-versa can take many years and derail plans orlarge-scale deployment o the technology that relies on that rare element. The subsequent sections

detail several o the most complex and disruptive potential constraints.

B. Geopolitical risks

The geopolitical dimension o mineral availability reers to the risks o a supply disruption (either in

the orm o physical unavailability or higher prices) due to the behavior o sellers or governmentsoutside the United States.

The United States relies on imports or more than 90% o its supply o the majority o ECEs identied

in this report. Import dependence, by itsel, is not inherently or necessarily risky. In act, relying on

imported raw materials is benecial to domestic users i oreign sources are diverse in number and

location and can supply the elements at a lower cost than domestic alternatives. The present U.S.dependence on oreign production o many mineral resources has, in many cases, evolved, not

because the United States has a lack o resources or reserves, but rather because oreign producershave a competitive advantage, supplying the United States (and the world) with raw materials at

the lowest price.

Serious risk may develop when production is concentrated in a small number o mines, companies,

or nations. When sources o rare commodities are discovered and, subsequently, developed in

underdeveloped countries, the result is sometimes increased hardship and political instability,

rather than improved standard o living or the majority o citizens. The history o cobalt, copper,and tantalum production in the Democratic Republic o the Congo is one o numerous examples in

Arica alone. Countries dependent on ECEs produced under such circumstances might be subject

to prolonged uncertainty and are at risk or acting in ways that urther exacerbate the economicand human sufering in the producing country. Conversely, when established oreign governments

control a major raction o the supply o an ECE, countries dependent on that material becomevulnerable to manipulative market practices. These include (a) charging higher prices than possiblewere there a larger number o sellers and (b) restricting exports to the advantage o domestic users

in the producing nations. Even absent explicit policy on the part o a oreign government, whensupply is concentrated, users are subject to unoreseen supply disruptions due to labor or civil unrest

and/or technical problems at mines or processing acilities.

There are numerous examples o disruptions driven by both oreign governments and other actors.

The present rare earth crisisinvolving dramatic price escalations and possible shortages

appears to be an example o government policy. History suggests that shortages, price spikes, and

abandonment o technologies can occur when the threat o a shortage arises, even i the actualshortage never materializes, as was the case or cobalt in the Congo in the 1970s (Alonso, 2007). In

contrast, large, long-established markets like those enjoyed by the primary metals have evolved adiverse landscape o suppliers across the globe. The distribution o copper and aluminum production,

shown in Figure 2, illustrates this point.

Among the energy-critical elements, the rare earths, platinum group elements, and lithium are

perhaps most vulnerable to geopolitical risks. Nearly all current global production o rare earthsoccurs in China, where the government has imposed export restrictions. Chinas stated motives are

to encourage responsible development o domestic processing and manuacturing industries thatuse rare earths, to stop highly polluting practices and to secure uture supplies or domestic needs;

opinion outside o China cites geopolitical control and maximization o price. Platinum productionis concentrated in the hands o a small number o companies in South Arica, which produced

79% o the worlds supply in 2009. This leaves platinum users vulnerable to opportunistic behavior,

Mineral resources andore reserves

Mineral resources include

both currently and potentially

economic volumes o rock with

concentrations o elementsthat are higher than typicalrocks. Reserves are dened

as economically extractable

resources. The term ore isrestricted to reserves, whereas

sub-economic and as-yet-unclassied resources are said

to contain mineralized rock.1

1 For urther explanation, see

Appendix C, p. 189 in (USGS, 2010).


12/28


either by platinum producing companies or by the South Arican government. Supply could be

disrupted due to technical problems at important mines or arising rom an unsettled political and

social environment. Lithium also has the potential or geopolitical risks, because the worlds knownresources o easily extractable lithium are largely concentrated in three South American countries:

Chile, Bolivia, and Argentina.

Even in cases where production is, at present, concentrated in one or a ew countries, the potential

or developing a broader suite o producers in the uture might be signicant. Occurrences o REEsare known across the globe. Figure 3, compiled by A. Mariano, shows his summary o the known

REE deposits that might be economically viable, given urther exploration and development o newmineral processing technologies (Mariano, 2010). Clearly, China is not the only country with the

potential to produce signicant quantities o REEs. However, the path rom recognizing a depositto ull scale production is a complex one. Many o the deposits shown in Figure 3 might never be

brought to production, due to problems with metallurgical extraction, labor costs, political instability,

absence o inrastructure, environmental impact, or social and political concerns. China dominatesthe REE market, because it has overcome the technical issues o extraction rom oten low-grade

deposits, using techniques enabled by low environmental standards and low cost labor. Similarissues and externalities have prevented exploitation o many o the resources displayed in Figure 3

elsewhere in the world.

ECEs that are primarily extracted as by- or co-products with other, more common and widely

distributed elements are less subject to geopolitical risks. However, they come with their own seto concerns.

C. The risks o joint production

The joint production o energy-critical elements has several important implications. First, producing

an element as a by- or co-product is typically less expensive than producing the same element by

itsel. Economists call this concept an economy o scopethe average total cost o productiondecreases as a result o increasing the number o commodities produced. Jointly produced elements

can have a commercial, competitive advantage over the same elements produced individually. For

example, when REEs in China are produced as by-products o iron-ore mining (as at the Bayan Obomine in Inner Mongolia), they have an inherent cost advantage over rare earths produced on their

own. The rare earths and iron ore share many o the costs o mine planning, blasting, ore haulage,and other activities.

Figure 3. Distribution o documented

REE deposits as presented by A. Mariano

in (Mariano, 2010).

Platinum (Pt) and Palladium(Pd) Geopolitical

Considerations

Platinum (atomic number78, 0.0000005% o Earths

crust) and palladium (atomicnumber 46, 0.0000015% o

Earths crust) are examples o

elements whose supply couldbe at risk, because they occur

in economic concentrations inew geological environments

and in geographic locations

where political stability mightbe a concern. Pt and Pd are

used as catalysts in uel cellsthat have many potential

applications, includinghydrogen uel and hybrid cars.

In 2009, global production

o platinum (178 MT) wasdominated by South Arica

(79%) and Russia (11%), aswas production o palladium

(195 MT) with each country

producing about 41%.


13/28

11

Second, the availability o an element produced as a by-product is constrained by the amount oby-product contained in the main-product ore. Consider the case o tellurium (Te; see subsequent

Sidebar or the basic properties o Te). Nearly all Te is obtained as a by-product o the electrolyticrening o copper (Cu). At present, only a raction o the Te in electrolytically processed Cu ores is

recovered. It is reasonable to assume that more could be recovered cost-efectively; a small increase

in price could motivate Cu reners to retain and process the Te to meet the increased demand or it.

Unortunately, rom the perspective o Te availability, acid leaching ollowed by solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) is replacing electrolytic rening o Cu and does not recover Te (USGS, 2010).

The supply o Te available, as a by-product o Cu rening, might decrease i the amount o Cu supplied

by SX-EW increases. I Te prices rise high enough, research might lead to new ways o extracting itrom Cu ores that are processed by SX-EW or to more ecient ways to recover additional Te romelectrolytic Cu rening.

As an example, i demand or Te grew dramatically in conjunction with widespread deployment o

Cd-Te thin-lm photovoltaic panels, then new sources would have to be ound. The Te required orone gigawatt (GW) (average delivered) o electric power is roughly 400 MT (see the sidebar on Te),

exceeding estimates o the worlds Te production in 2009. Te also occurs as an impurity in sulde ores

o zinc and lead, which it could be recovered rom as a by-product. When that capacity is exceeded,

it is quite possible that new, primary sources o Te, which do not benet rom the cost sharing o

joint-production, would have to be discovered, evaluated, and developed. Although such sourcesundoubtedly exist, too little is known about the geology and mineralogy o Te, its occurrences and

associations, to assure a stable global supply.

The scenarios we illustrate with Te also apply to indium, gallium, and germanium, all o which havepotential applications in advanced photovoltaics. The production complexities o elements primarily

obtained as by-products create a dicult environment or planning and investment in these elements,

as well as in the new technologies that require the unique attributes o the elements themselves.

Large uctuations in price can occur ater joint-production options are saturated and beore newsupplies hit the market. The possibility that consumers will turn toward temporarily less expensivesubstitutes in response to a sudden price increase makes investments in primary production risky,

and the lack o good inormation about the potential or primary production o these potential ECEs

complicates the situation.

D. Environmental and social concerns

Environmental and social considerations place strong constraints on mineral extraction and processing

operations. It is not enough that a mineral resource exists and is amenable to extraction using existingtechnologies; it is also necessary that the whole enterprise, rom extraction to utilization, takes

place in ways that are consistent with local, national, and, in many cases, international standards oenvironmental protection and respect or society.

Environmental concerns with mining and mineral processing are increasing around the globe. Therelatively stringent standards currently applied in developed countries like the United States are

increasingly being adopted throughout the world. In some cases, however, these high standardshave had the efect o moving mineral extraction activities of-shore to less developed countries

where, in some cases, local conditions lead to greater interest in short-term economic development

than in long-term environmental stewardship.

The social dimension o this issue compels mineral production to take place in ways that both

(a) acknowledge and remediate potentially disruptive efects o mineral development on local

communities, including strains on local inrastructure and services due to a dramatic inux o workers

rom outside the community and (b) appropriately share the wealth that mining may create with local

communities, in part, so desirable cultural, economic, and environmental conditions can be sustained.

The social and environmental aspects o mineral development have become signicantly more

important in recent years. For example, an international industry association, the InternationalCouncil on Mining and Metals (ICMM), has made these aspects its primary ocus, and the International

Finance Corporation (IFC), the commercial arm o the World Bank, has developed a set o perormance

standards or social and environmental sustainability that must be met by any project to which itlends money. As countries that now have lax environmental and social impact standards embrace

higher standards, the price and availability o ECEs might be signicantly afected.

Tellurium (Te)

Co-production

Te (atomic number 52,0.0000001% o Earths crust) is

one example o an ECE that is

now obtained as a by-producto the mining o another

element. No ores are minedprimarily or their Te; essentially,

all Te comes rom the rening

o Cu. Because Te productionis so small (on the order o

200 MT in 2009) compared tothat o Cu (15,800,000 MT in

2009), there is little incentiveto maximize Te recovery rom

Cu processing, even though Te

costs considerably more thanCu ($145/kg vs. $5.22/kg in

2009). Te is used in photovoltaicpanels, where it is employed

in lms a ew microns thick.Assuming a thickness o 3microns and a photovoltaic

eciency o 10%, we arriveat a Te content o about 0.1

gram per watt o installed

electric generating capacity or100 MT o Te per gigawatt o

installed capacity. Assuminga typical utilization actor

o 25%, this leads to about400 MT o Te per gigawatt

o produced electric power.

There are many unknowns that

make predicting the capacityo supply to expand to meet asignicantly increased demand

or Te dicult. Data on rates

o recovery o Te rom Cuores are not available. Little is

known about the geologicaland geographic variability o

Te in Cu ores or the extent o

Te abundance in other suldeores. Less still is known about

the existence, extent, andreserves o primary Te deposits.


14/28


The role played by environmental standards is well illustrated by several examples o the miningo REEs. Rare earths oten occur in association with thorium and uranium, both o which pose low

level, but signicant, radiation hazards. The rare earths can be extracted at a prot, but the thoriumand uranium are not commercially recoverable and, thus, are let in the tailings. As a result o mining

and mineral processing, unacceptable levels o radiation can be released into the environment, inot properly controlled. The problem is particularly serious or the mining o monazite and xenotime

REE sands, which are widely distributed over the world and have become resources largely viewedas uneconomic or this reason. Thorium and radium (by-products o uranium decay) contamination

rom wastewater spills resulted in closure o the chemical processing acility at Mountain Pass,

Caliornia in 1998. The operation has since changed its wastewater treatment to prevent such releases.Exceptional attention to environmental and local social concerns has accompanied the eforts to

restart the Mountain Pass REE mine in Southern Caliornia. In the short term, such eforts may putproducers in the United States at a competitive disadvantage relative to some oreign operations.

Chinas dominance o REE production is based, in part, on the mining o unusual lateritic clayREEdeposits in South China. REEs rom the South China clays now account or about 30% o world REE

production and are the worlds major source o yttrium and heavy REEs (HREEs), which are particularly

scarce. Existing mining practices result in a barren and disturbed landscape, unsuitable or agriculture

or other uses and vulnerable to erosion. There is oten no attempt at remediation o the mining

sites to allow or uture productive use, as would be the case in many other countries. Such miningpractices are not possible in most countries. In act, the Chinese government cites environmental

concerns as one reason or restricting the exports o HREEs.

E. Response times in production and utilization

Delays in both production and utilization undermine the ability to plan or deployment o new energy

technologies. At one end o the economic chain is the time it takes to bring a new mine or extraction

process online. At the other end is the time it takes, oten decades, to plan, research, develop, und,

permit, and deploy a new scheme or producing, transmitting, storing, or conserving energy. All these

steps anticipate that the supply o critical elements can be secured in a timely and afordable way to

make the technology cost-efective and available. For this to be done successully, inormation must

easily ow between the demand and supply sides on both uture and current uses and availability.

Interviews with experts in exploration, mining, and mineral processing suggest that it commonly

takes 5 to 15 years to render a new mine operative, that is, rom the time that exploration beginsuntil production starts. Several actors determine the timeline, including success in nding a mineral

deposit that is suciently large and high enough in grade to be economical, the time it takes toconstruct the inrastructure associated with a new extraction site, the time required to obtain

operating and environmental permits and the social license (the political buy-in o the local andregional community) to operate in a given geographic location, and the time it takes to arrange

nancing, which can reach billions o dollars.

In analyzing the impact o some o the worlds largest new mines, Schodde and Hronsky (2006)documented the time between discovery and start-up o teen operating mines, including copper

mines in Chile, diamond, nickel, and gold-silver mines in Canada, and zinc, copper, and gold mines

in Australia. The average time between discovery and start-up or these mines was 8 + 3 years. These

authors also studied our additional deposits that were undergoing easibility studies in 2006 thatwere still not in production in 2010. Using currently estimated start-up dates or these, the average

time between discovery and start-up or all nineteen mines would be 11 + 6 years, with a range rom

2 to 26 years. Initial exploration leading to a discovery adds another 3 to 5 years.


15/28

13

The development o new technologies or the extraction and processing o elements rom ores

is oten a protracted and uncertain process. Anyone amiliar with the history o the Hall-Hroult

process4 , the development o which transormed aluminum rom a scientic curiosity to a mainstay

o modern technology, will appreciate the time, efort, and uncertainty surrounding new extraction

technologies. Utilization o several REE minerals, such as eudialyte, is currently impeded by the lack

o suitable chemical technology to remove the REEs rom the other elements in the ore.

Time scales on the demand side may be just as long and risky as the development o new extraction

technologies. Developers and investors, whether public or private, hoping to bring a new technology

to market, must plan years, i not decades, in advance. Contributing actors include time or researchon selecting the best materials and approaches to manuacturing, patenting and other intellectualproperty issues, market research, nancing, and construction and permitting o manuacturing

acilities. Researchers involved in the creation o new technologies, at the earliest stage o theapplications cycle, generally ail to consider the availability o raw materials at all; their ocus remains

on a materials suitability or the task at hand. Uncertainty about the availability o critical elements

adds serious risk. The present crisis in the REE market is a good example o how early assumptionscan be challenged at a much later time: Wind turbines designed to work with neodymium-iron-boron

permanent magnets were designed over many years, under the assumption that neodymium, a airly

common element, would continue to be available in the quantities needed at reasonable prices.This situation has changed. Wind turbines could be redesigned to employ other magnets, perhaps

at some cost in eciency, but the redesign process is not trivial. It is dicult to predict whether thepresent steep increase in the price o neodymium (and decrease in its availability) is a short-term

problem to be weathered or a long-term problem to which the industry must adapt.

Another pertinent example o the efect o long time-delays is the development o lithium (Li)resources in the United States. Li is one, but not the only, important candidate or a light, high-

perormance battery in hybrid and electric vehicles. Global Li production is currently dominated

by Chile, which produces Li rom brines in the Atacama Desert. Bolivia also appears to have thepotential or large Li resources in brines. In the United States, at least one company is investigating

extraction o Li rom a new resource, hectorite, rom which Li has not previously been commercially

extracted. The company has spent several years conrming the resource potential o a deposit thatwas discovered in the 1980s and is now investigating how best to extract Li rom the material.

4 Although aluminum was rst isolated in metallic orm in 1825, it proved very difcult to extract rom its oxide

ore, and, or decades, aluminum metal was as rare (and as valuable) as gold or platinum. In 1886, Hall and Hroult

devised the modern process o aluminum refning, and aluminum quickly ound its place as a major industrial metal.

Lithium Response times inproduction and utilization

Li (atomic number 3, 0.002%

o Earths crust) is an exampleo an ECE whose uture

supply in the marketplace

is experiencing signicant

uncertainty associated withtime delays in productionand utilization. Li, a light and

highly reactive metal, is theprincipal component in one o

the most promising orms o

high energy-density batteries.As a result, many believe Li

batteries are the technologyo choice or all-electric

vehicles. I electric vehicles

are to gain a signicant shareo the market, battery and,

thereore, Li production must

grow proportionately. However,there are other materials

that could be consideredor use in high perormance

batteries. The choice owhich battery technology

to develop depends largelyon the availability and price

o the component materials.

Ramping up the productiono Li rom existing mines and

developing new ones is not atrivial matter, nor is the design

o Li batteries suitable or all-

electric vehicles. Lacking a cleardecision on the undamental

battery design, it is notsurprising that exploration or

and development o new Li

supplies remains in limbo.


16/28


A. Coordination

International relations, trade policy, environmental standards, energy independence, and long-term

research and development are traditional concerns o nations, rather than individuals, companies,

or local governments. The issues are complex and straddle areas that are in the portolios o manydiferent agencies and ministries within governments. Facilitating and coordinating these activities

presents a signicant organizational challenge.

In the United States, the stewardship o the multitude o issues and policies afecting ECEs does not

reside entirely in any one ederal department. Instead, ECEs are o concern to the Departments o

Commerce, Deense, Energy, Interior, State, and Transportation. Strong involvement o the Councilo Economic Advisors, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Oce o the U.S. Trade

Representative is also expected. The capacity to orchestrate a productive collaboration among allthese agencies and coordinate their eforts with the Oce o Management and Budget lies in the

Executive Oce o Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). We believe that the OSTP is the natural

home, at least or initial eforts, to guide the United States response to ECE issues.

Recommendation: The OSTP should create a subcommittee within the National

Science and Technology Council (NSTC) to examine the production and use o ECEs

within the United States and coordinate the ederal response. The subcommitteeshould include high-level participation rom the Departments o Commerce, Deense,

Energy, Interior, State, and Transportation, as well as the National Science Foundation,

the Environmental Protection Agency, the Oce o Management and Budget, the

Council o Economic Advisors, and the Oce o the U.S. Trade Representative.

Recommendation: The new subcommittee should immediately examine and address

the recommendations listed below.

B. Inormation

Comprehensive, reliable, and up-to-date inormation on all aspects o the lie cycle o ECEs wouldenable researchers, developers, and investors to more successully plan or the materials needs o new

technologies. The present inormation environment is very uneven. Relatively good inormation isavailable or elements with mature markets like platinum or silver, whereas inormation about newly

important elements like REEs or Te is incomplete, anecdotal, and oten contradictory. Inormation on

the utilization and end-o-lie o ECEs is hard to nd or, or some mineral commodities, entirely absent.

Gathering, coordinating, and disseminating inormation about mineral resources is currently theresponsibility o the Minerals Inormation Team (MIT) o the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which has

recently been reorganized into the National Minerals Inormation Center (NMIC) within the MineralResources Program (MRP) o the USGS. The NMIC ullls its task by publication o the annual Mineral

Commodity Summaries (MCS) and other related reports, which are used in the United States by

ederal and state governments and by the private sector throughout the world, as a reerence onmineral production, resources, and reserves. Beore its dissolution in 1995, the U.S. Bureau o Mines

was responsible or this task and had high visibility and support within the ederal government. Since

its transer to the USGS, the MIT (now NMIC) has struggled to nd unding to carry out its mission;

its budget and its manpower have eroded.

Inormation about ECEs, and current products that make use o them, is needed beyond what is

presently compiled in the annual MCS or the USGSs recent report on domestic REE deposits (Long,2010). This includes inormation across the ECE lie-cycle, rom potential economic and sub-economic

resources (both domestic and oreign) through production, scrap generation, and inventories o old

scrap, and into basic applications research, product design, and manuacturing. Data are also needed

on the use and disposal o products containing ECEs and the potential or recycling. Although portions

o these data are collected by the Department o Commerce and lie-cycle analysis is carried out or

selected minerals by the USGS, there is, at present, no central agency that compiles, analyzes, and

distributes inormation on the lie cycle o minerals and materials critical or energy technologies.

RESPONSES: FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS


17/28

15

Regular surveys o emerging energy technologies and their potential critical element requirements

are needed. Data on the magnitudes and locations o potential resources, both oreign and domestic,

and on potential constraints on availability are needed beore major investments in new technologies

that are reliant on these resources can be made. Nearly 40 years ago, the USGS published Proessional

Paper 820 (Brobst, 1973), which documented known U.S. mineral deposits in the context o globalresources, uses, and demand. An updated and extended version o this work, ocusing on the broader

set o issues outlined here, is urgently needed in light o the importance o ECEs.

Collecting and evaluating the data required to track the availability and uses o chemical elements

that are, or may become, critical to emerging energy technologies has become a complex,multidimensional undertaking. Although some data are already collected by a number o ederalagencies, the government does not have a central entity or tracking minerals and processed

materials. The inormation gathering capacities o the Energy Inormation Administration (EIA), or

energy sources and consumption, and the Bureau o Labor Statistics (BLS), or economic data, stand

in contrast to the limited inormation produced primarily by the NMIC on ECEs and minerals. Boththe EIA and the BLS are Principal Statistical Agencies, a designation that enables them to require

compliance with their requests or inormation; NMIC does not have this designation. The disparitywas recognized in the recent National Research Councils study, Minerals, Critical Minerals, and the

U.S. Economy, (NRC, 2008) which recommended that the agency given the responsibility to gather

mineral inormation also be given the Principal Statistical Agency designation. The ederal bodycharged with this responsibility must have the tools necessary to respond to technological, economic,

or geopolitical events that signicantly impact minerals or materials demand. It will not be able toaccomplish this ambitious mission unless it is empowered to enorce compliance with its requests

or inormation that comes with the designation as a Principal Statistical Agency.

Recommendation: The U.S. Government should gather, analyze, and disseminateinormation on ECEs across the lie-cycle supply chain, including discovered andpotential resources, production, use, trade, disposal, and recycling. The entity

undertaking this task should be a Principal Statistical Agency with survey

enorcement authority.

Recommendation: The ederal government should regularly survey emerging energy

technologies and the supply chain or elements throughout the periodic table with

the aim o identiying critical applications, as well as potential shortalls.

C. Research, development, and workorce issues

A ocused ederal research and development (R&D) program would enable the United States to both

expand the availability oand reduce its dependence on ECEs. This ederal R&D would be particularly

critical to the competitiveness o small U.S. companies that are unable to engage in their own ECEbasic research programs.

Several R&D areas can contribute signicantly to expanding the availabilityo ECEs. These R&D areas

occur throughout the supply chain, beginning with undamental issues in geology. ECEs have not

been a primary target o domestic mineral exploration in the past, so there is limited knowledge owhat geological characteristics indicate the likelihood o ECE deposits. A complicating actor is that

ECEs tend to exist in very low percentages, even in potentially economic ore deposits. Research ongeological models o ECE mineral deposits, ore-orming systems, and the basic geochemistry o ECEs

is needed. There has been little research o this kind in the United States or at least two decades.

Once a deposit is ound, there might be limited experience in the United States with methods toextract the low-concentration ECE rom the ore. R&D can signicantly advance the metallurgy,

processing, and abrication o ECEs. Special attention should be paid to the development o more

ecient methods o extraction o ECEs as by-products o primary metals.

Several R&D areas can help reduce the dependence on ECEs. One essential area o research is

substitutional chemistry: that is, substituting elements that are more abundant and have higherprojected availability or ECEs. Such substitutions cannot be made in a straightorward drop-in

ashion, since ECEs have properties or combinations o properties that make them uniquely suitable

or particular applications. Consequently, several materials may need to be substituted or the ECE,


18/28


or the overall design o an energy technology might need to be altered. Given these complications,

it can take years or a substitution to achieve commercial readiness. Thereore, it is imperative that

research into the unctional properties o a suite o potential replacements be initiated promptly, well

in advance o an element becoming an ECE. As a case in point, computational methods have been

developed that allow candidate materials or photovoltaic applications to be identied or urtherscreening. With such early identication o promising alternatives and sustained support or their

development, it might be possible to ease transitions rom technologies reliant on scarce ECEs to

new alternatives (See subsequent sidebar titled Rhenium (Re)R&D response to scarcity).

Recycling is another R&D area that could enable a reduction o dependence on ECEs. Many productsthat use ECEs currently have extremely limited recycling capability. The result is that signicant

quantities o ECEs are permanently discarded every year. Conducting research on product designs

that are more suited to recycling, while retaining the same unctionality, could help ensure that scarce

elements are more easily recovered rom discarded products. In addition, R&D into environmentally

benign methods to extract ECEs rom the discarded product would help encourage the growth o an

ECE recycling market. Taken together, research in chemical, metallurgical, and environmental science

and engineering, as well as industrial design methods, can enable the creation o waste streams that

result in high-value reusable ECE materials.

Recommendation: The ederal government should establish an R&D efort ocused

on ECEs and possible substitutes that can enhance vital aspects o the supply chain,

including geological deposit modeling, mineral extraction and processing, material

characterization and substitution, utilization, manuacturing, recycling, and lie-cycle

analysis.

All the R&D areas mentioned would benet rom a coordinated ederal efort ocused on elements

or groups o elements. These would complement existing centers ocused on particular energysources or technologies. Success requires close interdisciplinary collaboration among scientists,

engineers, and manuacturers with expertise across a range o elds, including geology, mining,extraction, processing, chemistry, material sciences, electrical and mechanical engineering, and

physics. Within the United States, this breadth o expertise exists only at some national laboratories

and major research universities. A consortium built around such institutions could bring the depth o

knowledge and the continuity o ocus that this problem requires. Such centers would orm cores o

activity that could engage and assist eforts by smaller groups at other universities and businesses.

Recommendation: The ederal government should create national collaborative

centers, including national laboratory, university, and industry participants ocused onelements or groups o elements. These would complement existing centers ocused

on particular energy sources or technologies. The new centers would oster the

synergies needed to address the prooundly interdisciplinary aspects o ECE issues.

Currently, there are not enough scientists and engineers with ECE experience or the United States to

satisy its ECE materials and technology needs or to assume leadership in critical energy technologies.

The number o graduating students required to address the domestic R&D needs at the ront end o

the supply chain (e.g., geology and mining) is currently small. As more mines become operational,more workers are needed. More proessionals are needed in the separation and processing elds,

which includes metal preparation, scrap recovery, recycling, and ceramics. Signicantly more students

are needed in R&D areas urther along the supply chain, in specialties such as physical, inorganic,and organic chemistry, chemical and metallurgical engineering, physical metallurgy, condensed

matter physics, and electrical engineering.

We estimate that approximately 70 Ph.D., Masters, and B.S. level scientists trained in ECE research areas

are required per year or 4 years to ll the present void o technically trained and skilled personnel. 5

Ater 4 years, approximately twenty scientists trained in ECE research areas will be needed per year to

sustain the anticipated level o expertise. These are conservative estimates based on current market

conditions. I technologies based on ECEs take-of and become dominant economic drivers, thenthe numbers will be greater.

5 This inormation was compiled by committee member Karl A. Gschneidner, Jr. or this study. For the complete

document consult (Gschneidner, 2010).

Rhenium (Re) R&Dresponse to scarcity

Re (atomic number 75,0.00000007% o Earths crust)

is, perhaps, the rarest o allnaturally occurring, stable

chemical elements. In 2006,

General Electric (GE) realizedthat demand or Rea critical

material in its turbine engineswas increasing signicantly. By

2011, worldwide demand waspredicted to exceed worldwide

supply, potentially resulting

in a Re shortage that wouldcripple its turbine engine

market. GE made a decision toreduce the companys reliance

on Re with a strategy, including

both the recycling and R&D osubstitute materials. Recycling

enabled GE to reduce its useo Re, while buying it enough

time to develop a new alloythat proved to be an adequate

substitute (Fink, 2010). GE

succeeded; but, many smallerU.S. companies cannot aford to

engage in this level o recyclingand/or substitutional research.

A ederal role in these areas

could be critical to such smallercompanies competitiveness.


19/28

17

Government support or training the necessary workorce is required to ameliorate this situation.Training programs should be established in conjunction with the research partnerships described.Investigators at universities or laboratories outside such centers, working on ECEs and related topics,

should be supported by traditional, competitive, peer-reviewed grants rom the National Science

Foundation (NSF), the Department o Deense (DOD), the Department o Energy (DOE), and theDepartment o the Interior (DOI).

Recommendation: The ederal government should support the training oundergraduate, graduate, and postdoctoral students in disciplines essential to

maintaining U.S. expertise in ECEs.

D. The role o material eciency

The term material efciencyreers to the variety o ways to obtain the essential services provided by

a material with less material production rom ores and other primary eed stocks. The aim o material

eciency is to enable the production o necessary goods, while producing as little o the material as

possible. Recycling is a major, but not the sole, component o ecient material use. Other aspects

include improved extraction technology, reduced concentration in applications, replacement innoncritical applications, development o substitutes in critical applications, and liestyle adaptations.

Several o these approaches all under the previous R&D heading, Research, development, and

workorce issues. Recycling and related strategies are the ocus here.

Material eciency can serve many purposes in the economics o ECEs. It has the potential todisplace some o the mining and processing o virgin ores, thereby minimizing the depletion o

nonrenewable resources and reducing the expenditure o energy used in extraction, separation,

and purication. Recycling generates an independent supply stream that can reduce dependenceon imports and smooth out price and availability uctuations, resulting rom possible constraints

on primary production. However, i use o ECEs expands as rapidly as expected, recycling and othermineral eciency strategies will not make more than a modest contribution to meeting demand.

Nonetheless, some demand will be ofset, the loss o materials to landlls will be avoided, and the

energy embedded in the elements during their initial processing will have been retained.

The opportunities or recycling will change as ECEs are more widely used, and a long-term

commitment to stewardship o resources should include plans or recycling, during the design omanuactured products and research on technologies to recycle metals with minimal impact on

the environment and human health. ECEs are well suited to unctional recycling (see sidebar titled

Recycling terminology), because they are not degraded by use. Chemical elements do not lose theirproperties with use, and they are oten ound in signicantly higher concentrations in discardedproducts than in the original ores rom which they were obtained. On the other hand, ECEs might

be used in tiny quantities or low concentrations, requiring sophisticated technology to separate

them or unctional recycling.

Recycling o an ECE can be cost efective, particularly i it is produced rom minerals rom whichrecovery is expensive. Most gallium, or example, is obtained as a by-product o aluminum production,

which is energy intensive. Because o its high energy costs, aluminum is one o the more successully

recycled metals post consumer recycling was equivalent to approximately 35% o apparent

aluminum consumption in 2009 (USGS, 2010). Because o the relatively high cost o recoveringgallium rom aluminum ores, the USGS noted that substantial quantities o new scrap generated in

the manuacture o GaAs-base devices were reprocessed.

Current levels o recycling or many ECEs are minimal. For example, the USGS MCS (2010) reportedlittle or no recycling o tellurium or selenium. Similarly, the USGS noted that, or lithium, recycling is

insignicant, but increasing through the recycling o lithium batteries. Platinum Group Elements(PGEs) are routinely recycled rom catalysts used in automobiles. However, the USGS estimated that

only 17 MT o PGEs were recovered rom scrap in 2009, compared with 195 MT o imports and 16MT o domestic production rom primary sources.

Recycling terminology

Recycling includes both

preconsumer andpostconsumer reuse.

Preconsumer recycling is

largely onew scrapmaterialproduced during the

manuacture o productsmade rom the metal or

other mineral commodity.

Postconsumer recycling islargely oold scrapdiscarded

products. Ideally, productsshould be recycled such that

the recovered material retainsits unctionality or a particular

use. This is known as unctional

recycling, by which the physicaland chemical properties that

made the material desirablein the rst place are retained

or subsequent use. This

contrasts with nonunctionalrecycling, by which the

material is incorporatedinto a recycling stream as an

impurity, and its individual

characteristics are lost.


20/28


Policies have been proposed or implemented in other countries to improve the level o recycling and

mineral eciency. For example, Directive 2002/96/EC o the European Parliament and the Council

o the European Union calls or recycling o waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). Thisincludes encouraging the design and production o electrical and electronic equipment whichtake into account and acilitate dismantling and recovery, minimizing the disposal o WEEE as

unsorted municipal waste, using best available techniques or treatment, recovery, and recycling,labeling WEEE so that it is more easily sorted rom other waste, and inorming consumers about

their obligations to recycle (WEEE, 2003). The European Union has also restricted the use o certainhazardous substances in electrical and electronic equipment. The government o South Korea, a

country that is resource poor, is encouraging urban mining, the recovery o critical elements rommunicipal waste (Bae, 2010).

Other proposals to improve mineral eciency include take-back laws that require manuacturers

or suppliers o products containing critical elements to accept their return or subsequent recycling,

requiring deposits on products that should be recycled providing incentives or renting high-techequipment that would be recycled upon return, and consumer-product labeling and ratings that

encourage recycling.

Recommendation: The ederal government should establish a consumer-orientedCritical Materials designation or ECE-related products. The certication requirements

should include the choice o materials that minimize concerns related to scarcity and

toxicity, the ease o disassembly, the availability o appropriate recycling technology,

and the potential or unctional, as opposed to nonunctional, recycling.

Recommendation: Steps should be taken to improve rates o postconsumer collection

o industrial and consumer products containing ECEs, beginning with an examination

o the numerous methods explored and implemented in various states and countries.

E. Possible market interventions

The recommendations within the previous section call or actions that all within accepted roles or

government: statistical inormation gathering, support or research and workorce development,

and incentives or activities, such as recycling. The Committee is hesitant to propose more directgovernment interventions in markets or ECEs. Rather, the Committee believes that industrial userso ECEs are best able to evaluate the supply risks they ace and purchase their own insurance

against supply disruptions (both physical unavailability and price uctuations). This insurance may

include private stockpiles o ECEs or other actions, such as long-term contracts with ECE suppliers.The Committee believes that ree trade in mineral commodities works to the benet o all parties.

Existing loan-guarantee programs in various agencies can provide support or some aspects o new

eforts in many ECE technologies.

Some governments maintain stockpiles o critical mineralssome or military needs, others oreconomic reasons on behal o industrial ECE users. Several highly industrialized countries that are

heavily dependent on imports o ECEs have recently begun high-level eforts to secure dependable

supplies or the uture. For example, Korea is in the process o stockpiling twenty-one elements tocover 60 days o domestic demand by its industries (Bae, 2010). Japan stockpiles seven rare elements

to cover 42 days o domestic consumption, complementing private stocks o the same elements in the

amount o 18 days o consumption. The United States has managed a stockpile o critical materials or

national security needs since World War II. In 2008, the National Research Council released a report

with major recommendations regarding the National Deense Stockpile (NRC, 2008-2).

Terbium (Tb) Failure torecycle

Tb (atomic number 65,0.00012% o Earths crust) is one

o the heavy REEs. Tb is used (toprovide the green phosphors)

with europium (blue and red) in

trichromatic, or color balanceduorescent lighting. Although

minute quantities are usedin each uorescent bulb, the

worlds annual production o Tbis less than 0.5 MT, and Tb is in

chronic undersupply. The price

o Tb imported rom China wasnearly $800/kg in December

2010. When uorescent lightsare recycled, the metal ends

are removed and recycled, and

the glass is also reused. Thephosphor powder on the inside

surace o the glass containsmercury, terbium, and other

rare metals. Because mercury istoxic, current practice is to mix

the powder into an aggregate

compounded with concrete andsequester the concrete rom the

environment, thereby makingthe Tb unavailable or recycling.


21/28

19

The Committee notes that such government stockpiles can have unintended, disruptive efects on

markets and can act as disincentives to innovation. Hence, with only one exception, helium, the

committee does not recommend that the United States establish nondeense ECE stockpiles. (TheCommittee did not consider stockpiles or essential military applications, as supply risk or military

needs is outside the scope o this study.)

The United States does maintain a stockpile o helium. Helium has several unique physical properties

(see the sidebar titled Heliumunique even among ECEs), any one o which may render it critical oruture technology, energy related or otherwise. More important, three acts make helium unique

among the chemical elements: (1) Helium is ound in economically viable quantities only in naturalgas reservoirs, occuring at levels as high as 7%. In contrast, helium is only 5.2 parts per million by

volume in the atmosphere, making recovery rom air extremely expensive. It is unlikely that other

economically viable sources o helium will ever be discovered. (2) When natural gas is extracted,unless it is recovered, the helium is vented to the atmosphere, rom which it would be extremely

expensive to recover. (3) Natural gas is extracted rom reservoirs at a rapidly increasing rate. At thepresent time, much o the natural-gas-associated part o Earths endowment o helium is being

rapidly depleted. Other rare elements that occur in trace concentrations in other common ores arelet behind in mine tailings to which uture generations could, i necessary, return. Helium, unique

in this regard, escapes. In 1995, Congress decided to sell the U.S. helium reserve. The Committee

recommends that this decision be reversed and that the United States and other nations develop along-term strategy or establishing and maintaining a signicant helium reserve.

Recommendation: With the exception o helium (see subsequent recommendation),

the Committee does not propose government interventions in markets beyond thosecontained in the other recommendations concerning research and development,

inormation gathering and analysis, and recycling. In particular, the Committee does

not recommend nondeense-related economic stockpiles.

Recommendation: Helium is unique, even among ECEs. The Committee concurs with

and reiterates the APS Helium Statement o 19956 : [M]easures [should] be adopted

that will both conserve and enhance the nations helium reserves. Failure to do so

would not only be wasteul, but would also be economically and technologically

shortsighted.

HeliumUnique even amongECEs

He (atomic number 2,

0.0000008 % o Earths crust)has a set o unique properties

that make it special, even

among ECEs. Helium liqueesat the lowest temperature o all

elements and does not solidiy,even at absolute zero tempera-

ture, making it indispensible

or cryogenicapplications. Anoble ga

energy critical elements: securing materials for emerging technologies

Documents