Energy Demand Outlook

by

Mohamed Ariff

Based on Data from

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

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Annual Growth of Energy Demand 2000 - 2020

World 2.1%

Asia 3.2%

North America 1.1%

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Demand Share by Region

2000 2020

OECD 59% 49%

Non-OECD 41% 51%

China 10% 15%

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Contribution to Global Increase in Energy Demand 2000 - 2020

China 25%

India 8%

Japan 1%

Other Asia 14%

Asia total 50%

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Primary Sources of Energy

World Asia

2000 2020 2000 2020

Oil 39% 38% 39% 38%

Coal 27% 27% 43% 40%

Natural Gas

24% 27% 10% 13%

Nuclear 8% 6% 6% 6%

Hydro 2% 2% 1% 2%

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Share in Demand Increase 2000 - 2020:Asia by Energy Source

Oil 35%

Coal 26%

Gas 30%

Others 9%

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Asian Contribution to Oil Demand Growth

China 47.0%

Japan -

Korea 4.1%

India 21.0%

Indonesia 7.1%

Taiwan 1.8%

Singapore 2.6%

Malaysia 4.6%

Philippines 2.9%

Thailand 4.2%

Vietnam 2.7%

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Regional Share of Increase Demand for Gas 2000 - 2020

Europe 32%

Asia 26%

North America 9%

Others 33%

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Dependence on Middle-East Oil, 2020

Japan 89%

South Korea 79%

China 51%

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China: Energy Demand

2000 2020

Coal 44% 24%

Oil 32% 43%

Gas 3% 6%

Electricity 16% 22%

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India: Energy Demand

2000 2020

Coal 55% 45%

Oil 35% 41%

Gas 7% 10%

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Oil Exports to East Asia

2001 2020

bpd % bpd %

Middle East 8,560 53 14,510 58

Africa 720 12 919 10

Former Soviet Union 100 3 2,272 30

South America 80 3 295 6

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