energy economics christian feisst

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© GreenCom Networks GmbH all rights reserved

26th September, 2013

Technology enabling new business models for a distributed future energy world

KSRI Summer School

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GreenCom Networks – What we Do

•  White-label SaaS platform

provisioning

•  Enabling managment of demand,

supply and storage capacity within

Virtual Power Plants for utilities and

ESCOs

•  „Activating“ utilities‘ and ESCO‘s

customers through „Customer

Engagement“ applications

•  Enabling business models of the

future for our utility and ESCO

customers

What we Do:

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Where we Are:

München (HQ) Sophia Antipolis (DC)

•  Smart City Engagements

North America

•  Mgmt. Distributed Generation

•  Virtual Powerplants

•  Micro Grids

•  Smart Homes

Europe

•  Eco Village

Asia

•  Residential Villa

Middle East

•  Load Control

•  Customer Engagement

Africa

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q Changing Energy Environment

q Technology-Enabled Solutions

q Examples of Implementations

Agenda

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Cleantech and communication technology lead to a paradigm shift in the utility industry

Energy Supply §  Central convential power generation §  Central system management §  Consumers or End Points

Old World New World

Energy Management §  Central and distributed power

generation based on conventional and renewable sources

§  Central and distributed system management

§  Customers and Prosumers

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Connecting distributed devices – 20x more grid nodes than today‘s Internet

Distribution (4.5m nodes)

Transmission (60k nodes)

90-100% telecontrolled 0-10% telecontrolled

The Real Internet of Things!

Home/Office Devices

(40bn nodes)

Photovoltaic

Heat Pump

Micro CHP

Electric Vehicle

Storage

Appliances

Missing Link

Power Generation (100k nodes)

Network Control Center

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What if we can create an operating system for the distributed energy world?

ENERGY INFORMATION BROKERAGE PLATFORM

Distribution (4.5m nodes)

Power Generation (100k nodes)

Transmission (60k nodes)

Home/Office Devices

(40bn nodes)

Photovoltaic

Heat Pump

Micro CHP

Electric Vehicle

Storage

Appliances

Network Control Center

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The Potential

Residential Customers

Heat Pump

1-10 kW

Electrical Water Heater

9-30 kW

Electrical Floor Heating

1-5 kW

Air conditioning

1-3 kW

Pool Pump

9-30 kW

Photovoltaic

1-10 kW

Micro CHP

1-10 kW

Stationary Storage

5-25 kWh

Electric Vehicle

20-80 kWh

Commercial Customers

Heat Pump

5-2,000 kW

Air-cooler

5-2,000 kW

Production Processes

5-15 kW

Air conditioning

5-20 kW

CirculationPumps

9-30 kW

Photovoltaic

1-10 kW

Mini CHP

10-100 kW

Stationary Storage

30-100 kWh

Electric Vehicle

20-80 kWh

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Germany – Significant distributed capacity available, with high growth-rate

Status Quo 2011/2012 Forecast 2020

Solar PV 1.2m installed base (30 GWp capacity)

2.5m installed base (65 GWp capacity)

Heat Pumps 450k installed base (4,5 GW capacity)

1.1m installed base (11 GW capacity)

Micro CHP 32k installed base (160 MW Leistung)

40k installed base (200 MW capacity)

Electric Vehicles Minimal penetration 1 Mio. zugelassene Fahrzeuge (15-25 GW capacity)

Consuming Devices /Climatisation

Millions (25-30 GW capacity)

Millions (25-30 GW capacity)

Source: Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft e.V; Bundesverband Wärmepumpe e.V.; Bundesverbrand Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung e.V.; Bundesumweltministerium; Prof. Stadler

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Duration (h) 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-12 -8

-4

-0

4 8

12

16

20

Posi

tive

Bal

anci

ng C

apac

ity (G

W)

71

61

51 41

31 21

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Temperature (°C) Source: Prof. Stadler, 2005

Balancing capacity potential Germany through Demand Response

Max. peak load About 80GW

Balancing capacity potential

about 25-30 GW for 1 hour

30% balancing capacity through Demand

Response

~€1.2Bn theoretical value of balancing capacity

Distributed energy products – Offering balancing capacity through load control

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•  Expected renewables build out will lead to severe problems for base load power stations

•  Between 2015 and 2020, available renewables

capacity will exceed demand for certain hours

of the year

•  Baseload power stations (nuclear and lignite)

would have to be stopped theoretically for

certain hours

•  Baseload stations technically cannot be

stopped, which leads to significant negative

wholesale prices and significant losses of about

€1Bn/a for baseload generators •  Demand Response is able to resolve this by

peak shifting

Implications for Baseload Generators Load Duration Curve Germany2009 vs. 2020

2000 4000 6000 8000 0 -10

0

10

30

50

70

90

Hours

Load (GW)

2009

Source: Study with large European Utility

Distributed energy products – Improved utilization of baseload plants through distributed energy management

2009 less Wind and PV Feed-ins 2020 2020 less Wind and PV Feed-ins

2020 less Wind and PV Feed-ins, incl. Load Management

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80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 GW

3,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

2,000

1,000

0

Distributed energy products – Load management to delay extension of power generation capacity

Options to close expected power capacity gap in Germany Generation Full Cost €/kW1

German Capacity Gap until 2020

Offshore Wind Power Includes CCGT Reserve

Bio- Mass

New Build

CCGT Hard Coal Lifetime

Extension New Build Hard Coal

Industrial CHP

Nuclear Lifetime Extension

Grid Auto-

mation Load Shifting

1 Full cost NPV over period 2009–2020. CO2 cost assumed at 25 €/t, no subsidies considered; operating hours based on expected merit order curve Source: Large European Utility

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Distributed energy products – Active customer management for top- and bottom-line optimization

•  Improved service quality

•  Reduced customer care cost

•  Lowered churn-rates

•  Increased revenue per customer through energy management services

•  Improved gross margins

•  Analyses of customer behaviour

•  Customer segment analyses for portfolio optimization

•  Tailored products at competitive tariffs

•  Reduced peak load consumption

•  Smoothed overal load within portfolio

Procurement Optimization

Customer Profiling

Customer Satisfaction

Value-Added-Services

Total benefits: contractual distribution with end

customer, see next slide

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Distributed energy products – Benefits will be distributed between ESCO and end customer

•  Consumption shift for tariff optimization

•  Ø residential customer: €20-60/a

•  Ø commercial customer: €400-1.000/a

•  Heat pumps/ Electr. Water heating: €15/kWel/a

•  PV: €30/kWp/a •  Micro/Mini CHP: €50/kWel/a

•  Storage/EV: 1,5 ¢/kWh

•  Ø residential customer: €30-40/a

•  Ø commercial customer: €400-500/a

•  Enhanced service quality

•  Improved customer satisfaction

Service Increased

Energy Efficiency

Reduced Electricity Bill

Optimized Utilization of Distributed Generation

Source: GreenCom simulation with large European utilities

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Agenda

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Building up an Internet of Things

Home Access Router

Smart Meter

Smart Plugs

Monitored & Managed Appliances

Other Sensors & Actuators

Smart Appliances

DG Coms Module

Distributed Generation, Storage, Electric

Vehicles

Sensor Network

Meter Data System (MDS)

Internet

Energy Service

Gateway

Utility End Customer

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Enabling Energy Management Applications

Filed for Patent "  Architecture filed for EU-wide patent Scalable "   Layered architecture approach

"  Cloud based SaaS approach

"  Key team with 30 man years of experience in

developing large-scale service delivery platforms

Replicable "  Solution focus on replicable customer segments

(Residential and SMB)

"  Sensor abstraction layers for easy additions of

new devices

"  Multi-tenant

Dynamic "  Dynamic optimization approach for load &

capacity management

Energy Information Brokerage Platform

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The “Virtualization” of the Energy System – GreenCom’s VPP Manager

Transparency •  Enhanced aggregated load forecast •  Improved aggregated forecast of distributed generation •  Aggregated view on flexibility schedule to shift/shed

load and capacity based on •  Asset prioritisation scheme •  Contract terms •  History of utilization

Control Dash Board

•  Schedule-based load and capacity shifting •  Tertiary Control functionality •  External data feeds for market conditions

Key Features

Objectives •  Inform utility retailers about flexibility schedule for load and distributed capacity •  Provide utility retailers with tools to shift and shed load and capacity

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The Principle

Local Optimization Market Prices

Weather Forecasts

Trading

Policies/ Regulation

Aggregated Flexibility Schedule •  Flexibility •  Reliability •  Cost

Energy Information Brokerage Platform •  Data exchange between homes/

buildings and market •  Load and capacity forecast

engine •  Central Energy Control Price

calculation •  Connection engine to homes/

buildings

Retail

Grid

Photo- voltaic

Heating/ Cooling

Micro CHP Pumps

Electric Vehicle

Storage

Appliances

Local Flexibility Schedule

Utilities

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Integrating End Customers – Landing Page Example Residential Smart Meter Portal

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Integrating End Customers – Example Consumption Visualization Residential Smart Meter Portal

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And Their Distributed Generation – Photovoltaic Control Example

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And Their Distributed Generation – Micro CHP Control Example

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Enriching with External Data Feeds – Photovoltaic Control Example

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And Utilizing Mobile Storages – Electric Vehicle Control Example

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Agenda

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Example City Power Johannesburg – Distributed energy management to stabilize the electrical system

South Africa's national grid came within a

hair's breadth of overloading last week,

suggesting the region's top economy is

going to battle to keep the lights on with the

approach of the southern hemisphere

winter.

State-run power utility Eskom said on

Monday that demand last Thursday peaked

at 32,081 MW and was met by a supply of

only 32,103 MW - a gap of just 0.06

percent.

This means that an unexpected problem at

a power station or a surge in demand on

that day would have tripped the national

grid.

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters, May 6th, 2013)

•  Intensifying public education and awareness programs to

mobilize support from households, communities and other

stakeholders, especially business;

•  Improving and better coordinating the communication about

load shedding coming from the City, City Power and Eskom;

•  Accelerating demand-side management initiatives that will

have an immediate and substantial effect;

•  Increasing the supply capacity of local independent power

producers and other co-generators, especially heavy

industry; and

•  Developing appropriate policies and legislation that will

encourage users to incorporate demand-side management in

their operations and businesses; this will be supported by

comprehensive education and awareness campaigns as well

as incentives for compliance.

City of Joburg’s “Electricity Plan”

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Example City Power Johannesburg – Distributed energy management to stabilize the electrical system

Smart Meter

Meter Data System (MDS)

Home Access Router

Internet

Energy Service

Gateway

El. Water Heating

Pool Pump

250.000 Residential Customers 20.000 Commercial Customers

SCADA System City Power

VPP Manager

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Example British Gas – Distributed energy management to optimize procurement

Home Access Router

Internet

Energy Service

Gateway

White Goods

Up to 2 Mio. Residential Customers until 2020

SCADA System Northern Power Grid

VPP Manager Heat Pump

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Example digitalSTROM – Local energy optimization

Home Access Router

Internet

digitalSTROM Server

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Questions

GreenCom Networks GmbH

Dr. Christian Feißt

Chief Executive Officer

Ganghoferstrasse 68

80339 Munich

Germany

[email protected]

energy economics christian feisst

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