energy efficiency in buildings: large possible benefits, but not …€¦ · a unique success story...
TRANSCRIPT
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Energy efficiency in buildings: Large possible benefits, but not easy to realize!
Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke Wuppertal Institute
Presentation at the Breakfast Seminar,
Akademiska Hus Gothenburg, 19th November, 2015
Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke Wuppertal Institute
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• Scaling up: Global cooperation and knowledge transfer needed • Avoid „lock in effects“ of moderate energy efficiency standards • Demonstrate the co-benefits and economic opportunities of deep renovation
• Make efficient buildings greener and green buildings more efficient
• Remove barriers by using country specific policy packages
• Step forward to sustainable city and neighborhood development
• Consider the social context (e.g.rebound, lifestyle) of the built environment!
Key messages
Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 23.11.2015
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Global challenges and opportunities
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This will only happen, if innovative policies and measures are used Because: the sector has complex structures and lots of barriers
Knowledge exists but is not easily available („closing the knowledge gap“) In particular: for emerging economies and developing countries
Global knowledge and implementation gap has to be closed
Buildings have to contribute with 38% to CO2 reduction in 2050
Source: IEA 2008
23.11.2015
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bigEE.net: A global knowledge management platform!
23.11.2015 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke
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Global energy consumption in 2050 for cooling and heating Huge gap between State of the Art and BAU
World Final Energy for Thermal Comfort: State of the Art vs. Suboptimal Scenarios (BAU)
Source: GEA 2012
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Large „lock-in“-effects of moderate efficiency strategies End use energy for heat and cooling in China and India (Source: Ürge-Vorsatz et al., 2012)
China India
China India
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The benefits of deep renovation In principle: Energy cost savings are much higher than investment costs
Source:GBPN, Monetary benefits of ambitious buildings energy policies, 2015
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EUP endorses a long-term 80%-reduction target - but to speed and scale up needs a longterm renovation strategy
The European Parliament’s Report on the Energy Roadmap 2050 ...calls for a reduction in the energy consumption of the existing building stock “by 80% by 2050 compared to 2010 levels“.
Press Release „Renovate Europe“, 14th May 2013
Required increase in renovation depth for 80% C02 saving in EU27
Source: BPIE 2011
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Consider the Life Cycle Processes of Buildings Integrate resource and energy efficiency strategies
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Buildings and the “Circular Economy” still a long way to a “resource efficient” and “green” economy
Case study USA:
Only 26% of construction and demolition (C&D) is
recycled or reused!
Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke
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Integrated energy policies for green and efficient buildings
Source: Shrestha 2015,; based on IEA/ UNEP 2013
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Efficient buildings and the German Energiewende
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“Revolutionary Targets” (Chancellor Merkel) Energy Concept, Federal German Government, 28 September 2010
; Reduktion Wärmeverbrauch
-80% ; reduction
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Source: Samadi 2011, based on data from AG Energiebilanzen 2011 and scenario studies cited
Primary energy in Germany in 2010 and in 2050 according to typical energy scenarios
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
Actual
WWF - Innovation w/o CCS
WWF - Innovation w. CCS
Greenpeace - Plan B
BMU - Base Scenario 2010 A
EnBW et al - Scenario 3
BMWi - Scenario II B
2010
2050
PJ
Nuclear energy Hard coal Lignite Oil Natural gas Renewables Others
ca. 70%
27%
31%
11%
47%
ca.50%
energy efficiency
renewable energy
Research consensus: “Energiewende” technically feasible Decoupling and reducing energy import dependency (2012: import costs 105 bn€)
Share of imported energy
Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 23.11.2015
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Quelle: Nitsch 2014
Heat production in a German 100% REG-Scenario Power to heat, biomass and solarthermal take the lead.
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23.11.2015
Quelle: Nitsch 2014
Power production and application up to 2060 (100% REG) Strong increase of PtG (e.g. hydrogen) and PtH (e.g.heat pumps) after 2030
Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke
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State of the art: Buildings used as power plants „Plus-Energy“ houses in Freiburg/Germany
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„Effizienzhaus Plus“ in Berlin with electric mobility Heated building area: 149 m² Excess power: 9.633 kWh/a (Source: BMVBS)
„Generation5.0 WeberHaus“ in Cologne-Frechen Heated building area: 237,3 m² Excess power: 2.064 kWh/a (Source: WeberHaus GmbH & Co. KG)
„Green[r]evolution HUF HAUS“ in Cologne Heated building area: 311,1 m² Excess power: 4.718 kWh/a (Source: HUF Haus GmbH & Co. KG)
„Netto-Plusenergiegebäude“ in Leonberg Heated building area: 595 m² Excess power: 11.054 kWh/a (Source: Prof. Dr.-Ing. M. Norbert Fisch)
Examples for „Efficiency Houses Plus“ in Germany
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Turning old existing multi-family buildings into „Efficiency Houses Plus“ (Conceptual design)
Design: University Mühlheim Design: Technical University Darmstad Architect: Werner Sobek Architect: 05 architekten bda Concept: High efficient insulation including Concept: Integrating buildings technology prefabricated buildings technology into the atic; using daylighting and eco-balance Note: Both multi-family houses had to be retrofitted using before 507 kWh/qm/a. The energy Surplus in the future will be produced by PV
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Source: Erhorn / Erhorn-Kluttig 2009
Development of minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) Case study: new buildings in Germany
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23.11.2015
Pilot Project: Passive house standard for deep renovation
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High subsidies for retrofitting buildings are necessary - but the macroeconomic multiplier and self-financing effects are promising!
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Policy packages
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There is no silver bullet to foster efficient buildings: Policy packages are needed adaped to climate zone and development stage
Governance framework for energy efficiency
Specific policies and measures for energy efficiency in new buildings
Energy efficiency targets & planning
Energy efficiency infrastructure & funding Eliminating distortions
Regulation Information Incentives & financing
Capacity building & networking
Promotion of energy services
RD & and BAT promotion
POLICY PACKAGE for
ENERGY EFFICIENCY in BUILDINGS
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Complex governance structure for energy efficiency Germany: More than 100 P&M – but coordinating unit is missing
23.11.2015
Key instruments acoording to the German NAPE
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National Agency for Energy Efficiency + Savings Fund A proposal for a new “ policentric governance“ of energy efficiency policies
23.11.2015 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke
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Regional efficiency initiative: ProKlima Fund in Hanover A unique success story in the EU; transferable to each city
23.11.2015
Hannover and the involved municipalities
Activities Founded in 1998
49 million € support for CHP, passivhouses,
energy saving projects, solar and biogas
1 € fund incentive mobilizes 12 € private Investment
1000 job secured Comparable project discussed in Wuppertal Düsseldorf
Financing Ca. 5 million € per year out of 3 sources: Ca. 40% form utility profits Ca. 40% fee (0.2 cts/kWh on sales) Ca .20% by the other municipalities
Source: Wuppertal Institute, 2014
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ESCOS and the building sector
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A snap shot of the ESCO market in Germany 500 ESCOS, market size €3.5-6 billion/a (mostly Energy Supply Contracting (ESC)
23.11.2015
Source: Bertoldi et al, 2013
<-
Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke
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Good practice: Energy Savings Partnership Berlin: Retrofit pools of public buildings by private Energy Perfomance Contracting
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Retrofitting 1300 public buildings ESCOs tendering on special pools of buildings
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About €49 million private investments - Reduce public energy budget by €2.7 million („guaranteed budgetary savings“)
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23.11.2015
Objective • Testing „Citizen´s Capital“ concept; • Combination of energy savings with solar
energy
Approach • Four pilot projects (Engelskirchen,
Emmerich, Köln, Gelsenkirchen) • Limited coop. with citizen‘s capital; • contracts with municipalities (14-20 a):
Payback from saved energy costs and guaranteed feed-in tariff
Results • Total investment ca 3 Mio. Euros; • Shared Savings: Investors, schools,
municipalities (target IRR 5 to 6 %); • So far: results better than planned!
Profits from combined efficiency and renewables „Solar&Save“ citizens capital projects in pilot schools in North Rhine-Westphalia
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Decentralized renewables: Role of municipalities and citizen finance
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Renewable energies of the Energiewende Strong economic benefits for municipalities
23.11.2015
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Increasing decentralized options in rural areas 100%-Renewable-Energy-Regions in Germany
• Political decision towards 100% renewable energy in more than 100 cities or regions
• Aim: Complete change towards renewable energy as well as reducing energy use
• Using regional sustainable energy sources to create regional welfare (income effects)
• Main barriers: co-ordination, local acceptance, lack of funds
• Innovative financing (citizen companies, cooperatives, local funds)
12%
88%
Area 8%
92%
Popul.
Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke 23.11.2015
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23.11.2015 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke
973 (12/2014)
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Ownership of installed renewable power capacities in Germany 2010
Source: Greenpeace International 2013
Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke
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23.11.2015
• founded in 2000 as a limited company of 20 citizens
• target: 100% renewables in the region „Hegau“ at the Bodensee up to 2030
• Activities: Solar PV, biogas/district heating, hydro, bio-energy villages
• financed only by citizens capital
• political frame conditions: German Renewable Resources Law („feed in law“)
• today ca. 1000 active members (e.g. SMEs, Utilities, Citizens as share holder)
Regional good practice: Solarcomplex AG „Citizens contracting“ to supply 100% renewables in 2030
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23.11.2015
Challenges for the business model of utilities - The confrontation with overlapping new types of costumers
Source: Eurolectric 2013
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23.11.2015 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke
The split of E.ON : „A matter of survival“. FR 12.3.2015: „Tottering giants. Billons of losses for RWE and E.ON“!
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23.11.2015
Germany: Comparison of costs of new nuclear power plants with PV and wind and the levelized costs of gas/coal (incl.CCS)
Source: Agora/ Prognos 2014
Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke
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Citizens/stakeholder participation is key
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• 95% of German hard coal mining; 53% of lignite mining
• about 1.1 Mio. million employees in the energy sector • nearly 1/3 of the German electricity production 70%
coal-based, 90% fossil • 35% of German CO2-emissions (~300 Mio. ta) • about. 50% of German energy intensive industries • Per capita emissions: 16 t CO2/year Goal: Reduction of C02 by 25% (2020); 80% (2050)
North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) plays a crucial role: If NRW does not succeed, it is unlikely that Germany/Europe will reach the C02-reduction targets Good practice for stake holder participation on developing binding climate protection targets 2 years duration, 400 stakeholders form all groups participated + scenario based dialogue
North Rhine-Westphalia – The German “Energy State” How to develop a Climate Plan with binding targets and broad participation?
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Consens building by conducting a scenario based dialogue to consider different stakeholder perspectives and conflicting views
23.11.2015
Source: Wuppertal Institute 2014, Prognos 2014
Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke
Mitigation scenarios Baseline Scenarios A A1 A2 B B1 B2 BCCS C C1 C2 0,6 0,8 Electricity production Development renewables low high high 100%* low high low 100%* very low very low
Demand for electricity** constant constant decreasing constant slightly decreasing
Industry Growth 1,2% 1,2% 0,6% 0,6% 1,2%
Technology Best available technology Low carbon technology Low carbon technology cost-efficent available
technolgy
Usage of H2 in PJ 2050 - 140 280 140 200 280 - - Buildings Reconstruction rate 1,4% 0,7% 1,4% 2,0% 1,4% 2,0% 2,0% 0,7%
Mitigation of GHG-Emission in NRW***
1990-2020 (Target -25%) -21% -20% -25% -26% -26% -27% -22% -29% -24% -29% -21% -16% 1990-2050 (Target -80%) -57% -57% -60% -65% -64% -79% -67% -69% -68% -82% -51% -40%
* 100% of electricity production from renewables ** electricity demand are scenario results *** domestic mitigation in North Rhine-Westfalia excluding emission trading
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A city good practice example in NRW: Innovation City Bottrop climate mitigation + improved quality of life + participation (citizens, industry)
Living Working Energy Mobility
City
Climate Protection
Quality of Life
CO2-savings of 50% in 10 years
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Innovation City Bottrop started with 20.000 signatures by citizens in four weeks (ca. 1/3 of inhabitions of pilot area)
Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke
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Bottrop: A role model of sustainable city development Extract List of Projects
PLUS-ENERGY-Model Houses: Detached House Apartment Building Commercial Building Social Housing
Rheinbaben district
Manual Consultation Process Rheinbaben
Living at Ehrenpark
Living at Trapez
Retrofitting of Companies
Regenerative Energy
Electric Mobility
Urban Development
Retrofitting of Residential Areas
Hochschule Ruhr West
Low Energy Gas-Station
Welding with Solar Power
Industrial Estates Knippenburg/ Kruppwald
Energy Supply Welheimer Mark
Climate Neutral Retail Sale
CHP Pilot Project
Application of 10 Mini-CHP
Dual Demand Side Management
Smart Grid
Warmth on Wheels
Mine Water Heat
Use of Process Heat of the Coking Plant
Masterplan Hydrogen
E –Mobility in the context of energetic district retrofitting
Electric Public Transport
E-Vehicles
E-Trucks
Rental System
City Compatible Truck Routing
Car-Sharing
Exchange of Charging Station at Main Station
Masterplan InnovationCity Ruhr
Integrated Urban Development Welheimer Mark
Photovoltaics Noise Barrier at A 42 Highway
LED-Street Lighting
Rain Water Management at BEST Area
Cultivation of Facade Surfaces
23.11.2015
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Bottrop: Information, motivation, citizen participation Retrofit rate exceeds German average by a factor of 7!
8.995 House-by-House-Consultations =
89% of all Property Owners
1.300 Single Consultations = 13% of all Property Pwners
978 Buildings retrofitted = 7,82 % of all Residential Buildings
October 2011 to November 2013
27 Theme Evenings with 2.000 Participants ( Heating, Insulation, Solar, Financing, etc.)
InnovationCity Day with 500 Participants (Information, Motivation)
Public Workshops in 5 Quarters (> 300 Proposals)
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Industry involvement: demonstration projects
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Demonstration Project The Energy Campus Lab
Solar Panels
Photovoltaics Sorption Based Air Condition Parabolic Heliostats
Fresnel- and Parabolic Collectors
Facade Panels
Waste Water Heat Recovery
District Heating
Concrete Core
Temperature Control
CHP Storage
Electric Mobility
Heat Recovery Server Room
Insulation
- Lab, Think Tank, and Partner of InnovationCity Ruhr - Partners: Gelsenwasser, Steag – Fernwärme - Investment: 34 Mio.€
(PCM: Phase Change Material)
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Demonstration Project: 100 CHP-Facilities
DVGW-Innovationsoffensive
GWI Model House
CHP: Stirling- / Otto Engine / Fuel Cell
Quarter of Bottrop
Lab Field Test
Manufacturers
Blueprint - from Micro to Macro Level
Monitoring and Transfer
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„Future House“ for low income families Demonstrationproject of the municipal buldings company
Social Housing as „Plus Energy Building“ Six Tenants Unique in Germany Scientific Evaluation by HRW Bottrop
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Is efficient sufficient? Lifestyle changes matter!
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“Comfort eats up efficiency” in European buildings
Trends in EU Housing Efficiency, 1990-2004
Source: Is efficient sufficient? ECEEE 2010
total
specific
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„Life style eats up efficiency“ „Sometimes...average power use per new TV...even exceeded where it had been in the 1940s area of CRTs and vacuum
tubes“ (C.Calwell, 2010, S.21)
23.11.2015 Prof. Dr. Peter Hennicke
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Combine efficiency and sufficiency policies - to reduce rebound effects and encourage life style changes!
„The older I get the more I like regulation“
(Eoin Lees, Former Head of Energy Savings Trust/ UK)
System adjustments
Direct: Binding energy saving targets (EU 2011/2012) Energy efficiency obligations for utilities (EU ESD 2012) Reduction of subsidies and internalizing ext. cost of nuclear/fossil fuels Caps, e.g. dynamic standards for fleet consumption of cars (EU) Bonus/malus regulations e.g. for cars („feebates“) More ambitious targets for EU ETS Progressive standards (e.g. ICT) Ecotax
Indirect: Structural change to less resource intensive sectors (i.e. services) Promotion of renewable energy in coordination with energy efficiency “ProgRress” (German Program Ressource Effciency)
Behavioral change Sustainable consumption, promotion of common goods, education… Reducing societal disparities ( e.g. income, wealth, access)…
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Thank you for your attention!
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