energy efficiency & integrated resource planning...2016/04/05 · energy efficiency is the...
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EnergyEfficiency&IntegratedResourcePlanning
EllenZuckerman&JeffSchlegelSouthwestEnergyEfficiencyProject(SWEEP)
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EnergyEfficiencyistheLeastExpensiveEnergyResourceAvailabletoMeetCustomerNeeds
DataSource:TucsonElectricPower(TEP)2016PreliminaryIntegratedResourcePlanandSupplement;TEPDemandSideManagementReports2011-2015.EEcostsexcludecostsandsavingsofdemandresponse.CostsareallporUoliocostsincludingrebatesandincenVves;trainingandtechnicalassistance;consumereducaVon;programimplementaVon;programmarkeVng;planningandadministraVon;measurement,evaluaVon,andresearch;andtheuVlityperformanceincenVve.
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350Acutal2011EECost
Acutal2012EECost
Acutal2013EECost
Acutal2014EECost
Actual2015EECost
Wind(50MW)
SolarFixedPV
(20MW)
SolarSingleAxisTracking
(20MW)
NaturalGasCom
bine
dCycle
NaturalGasReciprocaVn
gEngine
s
SmallM
odularReactor
SolarThermal(6
-hou
rstorage,100M
W)
SmallA
erod
erivaV
veCT
SmallFrameCT
Levelized
Cost$
/MWh
ComparisonofTEPEECoststoOtherResources
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ResourceCapacityCostComparisonPorGolio CapacitySavings,
MW*PorGolioCosts* $/kW
TEPIncrementalEE(2015)
24.5 $16.0M $653
APSIncrementalEE(2015)
99.9 $62.8M $629
Resource $/kW
CombusVonTurbine(Aero) $1,250
CombusVonTurbine(Frame) $800
ReciprocaVngEngine $1,200
SmallModularReactor $6,400
NaturalGasCombinedCycle $1,300
Source:TEP2016IRP.
*Doesnotincludedemandresponseorbehavioralefficiencyprograms.CostsareallporUoliocostsincludingrebatesandincenVves;trainingandtechnicalassistance;consumereducaVon;programimplementaVon;programmarkeVng;planningandadministraVon;measurement,evaluaVon,andresearch;andperformanceincenVves.Source:TEP/APS2015AnnualDSMProgressReports.
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Energy Efficiency Technologies
Source: SRP 2014 Energy Efficiency Annual Report
Appliances
Building Envelope
Motors
Lighting
HVAC
Shading
SlidefromArizonaStateUniversity
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DSM Portfolios, Programs, and Measures in AZ AZ DSM Portfolios Example Programs: TEP Example Measures: Small
Business/Schools Residential Programs: • Low-income Weatherization • Residential New Construction • Shade Tree Program • Efficient Products • Existing Homes Retrofit and Audit
Direct Install • Multi-Family • Appliance Recycling Non-Residential Programs • C&I Comprehensive • Small Business/Schools • Commercial New Construction • Bid For Efficiency • Retro-Commissioning • Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Behavioral Sector • Behavioral Comprehensive Support Sector • Consumer Education and
Outreach • Energy Codes and Standards Utility Improvement Sector • Conservation Voltage Reduction • Generation Improvement and
Facilities Upgrade • C&I Direct Load Control Program
1. 14/15/16 SEER Packaged and Split ACs 2. 14/15/16 SEER Packaged and Split HPs 3. Advanced Power Strips, Load Sensors,
Occupancy Sensors, Timer Plug Strip 4. Anti-sweat Heater Controls 5. Beverage Controls 6. Day lighting Controls 7. De-lamping 8. Energy Efficiency Exit Signs 9. Evaporative Fan Controls 10. Hard Wire CFL 11. HIDs to T8/T5 12. High Efficiency Evaporator Fan Motors 13. Induction Lighting Interior 14. Integral Screw In CFL 15. Integrated Case Control and Motor Retro-
fit 16. LED Interior 17. Occupancy Sensors 18. Outdoor CFL 19. Programmable Thermostats 20. Refrigerated Display Automatic Door
Closers 21. Strip Curtains 22. Variable Speed Drives
[Others]
SlidefromArizonaStateUniversity
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New DSM Technologies Recently Introduced in AZ
• Western Cooling Control Optimizer
• Smart Thermostats
• Conservation Voltage Reduction
SlidefromArizonaStateUniversity
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EnergyEfficiencyResourcesBuildUpCapacityOverTime
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Capa
city(M
W)
CapacityContribuLonsofEnergyEfficiencywithTime
2014EE 2015EE 2016EE 2017EE 2018EE
EEprogramsbuildupcapacityresourcesoverLme,ascustomersmakedecisionsonbuildings,appliances,andequipment,andasEEmeasuresareinstalled.Forexample,whenanEEmeasuresuchasaQcinsulaLonisinstalled,thataQcinsulaLonwilldelivercapacitybenefitsintheyearthatitisinstalledandinsubsequentyears(astheinsulaLonisnotremoved).Inthisway,EEresourcesimplementedinanyoneyearconLnuetodelivercapacitybenefitsformulLpleyears.InaddiLon,EEresourcesimplementedinsubsequentyearsbuildonthecontribuLonofEEresourcesimplementedearlier.
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CapacityProvidedbyEEInvestmentsFrom2011-2015isFarGreaterthanRecentSupplySideAddiVonsthatareComparaVvelyMoreExpensive
DataSource:ArizonaPublicService2011-2015DSMReports;TucsonElectricPower2011-2015DSMReports;UNSE2011-2015DSMReports;ArizonaPublicService2014IRP.CapacitycontribuVonsfromdemandresponseandbehavioralenergyefficiencyprogramswereexcluded.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
EECapacityContribuVons OcoVlloExpansion(NetCapacityIncreaseAherSteamUnitReVrements)
Capa
city(M
W)
CapacityContribuLonsofTEP,APS,andUNSEEE(2011-2015)VersusCapacityofOcoLlloExpansion
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TEPhasUnmetCapacityNeedsOvertheNext15Years
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032ResourceCap
acity(M
W),Ca
pacityReq
uired
toM
eetP
eakDem
and(M
W)
TEPLoadForecast;ExisLngResources(withoutEE,DR,andDistributedRenewableEnergy)
Coal NaturalGas UVlityScaleRenewables
MarketResources Storage LoadObligaVons*
*LoadobligaVonsarewithouteffectsofEE,DR,andDG;andincludea15%reservemargin.DataSource:TucsonElectricPower(TEP)2016PreliminaryIntegratedResourcePlanandSupplement.
Unmetcapacityneeds
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EEHelpsTEPtoMeetitsUnmetCapacityNeeds
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
ResourceCap
acity(M
W),Ca
pacityReq
uired
toM
eetP
eakDem
and(M
W)
TEPLoadForecast;ExisLngResources(withEE,DR,andDistributedRenewableEnergy)
Coal NaturalGas UVlityScaleRenewables
MarketResources Storage DistributedRenewables
DemandResponse EnergyEfficiency LoadObligaVons*
*LoadobligaVonsarewithouteffectsofEE,DR,andDG;andincludea15%reservemargin.DataSource:TucsonElectricPower(TEP)2016PreliminaryIntegratedResourcePlanandSupplement.
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EEMeetsBetween~30-55%ofUnmetCapacityNeedsEachYearOvertheNext15Years
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Contribu
Lon
ofR
esou
rcesto
Unm
et
Capa
cityReq
uiremen
ts(M
W)
ContribuLonofFutureResourceAddiLonstoUnmetCapacityNeeds
EnergyEfficiency DemandResponse DistributedRenewables UnmentCapacityNeed
*UnmetcapacityneediswithouteffectsofEE,DR,andDG;andincludea15%reservemargin.DataSource:TucsonElectricPower(TEP)2016PreliminaryIntegratedResourcePlanandSupplement.
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FailuretoInvestinEEwillResultinInvestmentinMoreExpensiveSupplySideResources
SWEEPexaminedahypotheLcalscenariowhereEEcapacityisreplacedwithsupplysideresourcesinTEP’s2016IRP.WeassumedthealternaLvesupplysideresourcewouldbea102MWcombusLonturbine(suchastheoneproposedbyAPSatOcoLllo).
ThefigureillustratesthebuildoutofcombusLonturbineunitsnecessarytoprovidecapacityresourcesequivalenttothecapacityprovidedbyEEinTEP’s2016IRP.Asshowninthisfigure,failuretoinvestinEEwillresultinsignificantinvestmentinsupplysideresourcesthatarecomparaLvelymoreexpensive.Indeed,TEPwouldneedtobuildthreecombusLonturbinesovertheplanninghorizonandwouldneedtocommenceconstrucLonimmediately.
DataSource:TucsonElectricPower(TEP)2016PreliminaryIntegratedResourcePlanandSupplement.
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TEPSlowsitsInvestmentinEEAhertheEEStandardSunsets
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032
MW
TEPAnnualIncrementalEnergyEfficiencyInvestment
PostEEStandard
DataSource:TucsonElectricPower(TEP)2016PreliminaryIntegratedResourcePlanandSupplement.