energy, electricity and nuclear power estimates · 2007. 8. 3. · electricity generated by...

Energy,ElectricityandNuclear PowerEstimatesfor the Periodup to 2030

R E F E R E N C E D ATA S E R I E S No. 1 2007 Edition

REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1

ENERGY, ELECTRICITYAND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES

FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030

2007 Edition

INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCYVIENNA, 2007

ENERGY, ELECTRICITY ANDNUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATESFOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030

IAEA, VIENNA, 2007IAEA-RDS-1/27

ISBN 978-92-0-107107-1ISSN 1011–2642

Printed by the IAEA in AustriaJuly 2007

CONTENTS

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Grouping of countries and areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Table 1. Nuclear power reactors in the world(end of 2006) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Figure 1. Nuclear share of total electricitygeneration in 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Table 2. Number of countries with nuclearpower reactors in operation orunder construction (end of 2006) . . . . . . . . 15

Table 3. Estimates of total and nuclearelectrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Figure 2. Total and nuclear electrical generatingcapacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Table 4. Estimates of total electricity generationand contribution by nuclear power . . . . . . . 21

Figure 3. Percentage of electricity suppliedby nuclear power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Table 5. Estimates of total energy requirement(EJ), percentage used for electricitygeneration, and percentage suppliedby nuclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Figure 4. Estimates of total energy requirement . . . . 26Table 6. Total energy requirement (EJ) by fuel type

in 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Figure 5. Total energy requirement by fuel type

in 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Figure 6. Breakdown of world total energy

requirement during the period1970–2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

Table 7. Fuel shares (%) of total energy requirement in 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Table 8. Fuel use (EJ) for electricitygeneration by fuel type in 2006 . . . . . . . . . 36

Table 9. Percentage contribution of eachfuel type to electricity generationin 2006 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Table 10. Estimates of population growth by region. . 39Figure 7. Population estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40Table 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity

requirement per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Figure 8. Total energy requirement per capita . . . . . . 44Figure 9. Total electricity requirement per capita . . . . 46Table 12. Average annual growth rates during the

period 1996–2006 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Figure 10.Average annual growth rates during the

period 1996–2006 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50Table 13. Estimates of average annual

growth rates during the period2006–2030 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

5

INTRODUCTION

Reference Data Series No. 1 is an annual publication —currently in its twenty-seventh edition — containing esti-mates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends upto the year 2030.

Nuclear data presented in Table 1 are based on actualstatistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power ReactorInformation System (PRIS). Energy and electricity data for2006, however, are estimated, since the latest availableinformation from the Department of Economic and SocialAffairs of the United Nations is for 2004. Population dataoriginate from the World Population Prospects (2003Revision), published by the Population Division of the UNDepartment of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2005values are estimates.

The future growth of energy, electricity and nuclearpower up to the year 2030 is presented as low and highestimates in order to encompass the uncertainties asso-ciated with the future. These estimates should be viewedas very general growth trends whose validity must con-stantly be subjected to critical review.

The energy forecasts carried out in increasing numbersover the last years by international, national and privateorganizations are based on a multiplicity of differentassumptions and different aggregating procedures,which make their comparison and synthesis very difficult.The basic differences refer to such fundamental input dataas:

— World and regional scenarios of economic develop-ment;

— Correlation of economic growth and energy con-sumption;

— Assumptions on physical, economic and politicalconstraints applying to energy production and con-sumption;

— Future prices of different energy sources.

6

The projections presented in this booklet are based ona compromise among:

— National projections supplied by each country for arecent OECD/NEA study;

— Indicators of development published by the WorldBank in its World Development Indicators;

— Estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear powergrowth continuously carried out by the IAEA in thewake of recent global and regional projections madeby other international organizations.

The nuclear generating capacity estimates presented inTable 3 are derived from a country by country ‘bottom-up’approach. They are established by a group of experts par-ticipating each year in the IAEA’s consultancy on NuclearCapacity Projections and based upon a review of nuclearpower projects and programmes in Member States.

The low and high estimates reflect contrasting but notextreme underlying assumptions on the different drivingfactors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment.These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary fromcountry to country. The estimates presented provide aplausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region andworldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor toreflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowestto the highest feasible.

In the low estimates, the present barriers to nuclearpower development are assumed to prevail in most coun-tries during the coming three decades:

— Low economic and electricity demand growth rates inOECD countries;

— Public opposition to nuclear power, leading to policydecisions not to consider the nuclear option in spite of itscompetitive costs and potential contribution to reducingenvironmental impacts from electricity generation;

— Institutional and financing issues preventing theimplementation of previously planned nuclear pro-grammes, in particular in countries in transition and indeveloping countries;

7

— Inadequate mechanisms for nuclear technologytransfer and nuclear project funding in developingcountries.

The high estimates reflect a moderate revival of nuclearpower development that could result in particular from amore comprehensive comparative assessment of the different options for electricity generation, integrating eco-nomic, social, health and environmental aspects. They arebased upon a review of national nuclear power pro-grammes, assessing their technical and economic feasibility. They assume that some policy measures wouldbe taken to facilitate the implementation of these pro-grammes, such as strengthening of international co-operation, enhanced technology adaptation and transfer,and establishment of innovative funding mechanisms.These estimates also take into account the global concernover climate change caused by the increasing concentra-tion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the sign-ing of the recent Kyoto Protocol.

The data on electricity produced by nuclear powerplants is converted to joules based on the average effi-ciency of a nuclear power plant, i.e. 33 per cent; data onelectricity generated by geothermal heat is converted tojoules based on the average efficiency of a geothermalpower plant, i.e. 10 per cent. The conversion to joules ofelectricity generated by hydropower or by the other non-thermal sources such as wind, tide, and solar is based onthe energy content of the electricity generated (the equi-valent of assuming a 100 per cent efficiency).

The total energy requirement has been calculated bysumming the primary energy production, the net energytrade minus changes in international bunkers and domes-tic stocks.

The values shown in Table 9 refer to primary energyused for the generation of electricity. Owing to differencesin conversion efficiencies, the percentage values are dif-ferent from the shares of electricity generation presentedin Tables 1 and 5.

8

Energy Units

1 MW(e) = 106 watts1 GW(e) = 1000 MW(e) = 109 watts1 GJ = 1 gigajoule = 109 joules1 EJ = 1 exajoule = 1018 joules1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE)1 TW·h = 1 terawatt-hour = 109 kW·h = 3.6 × 10–3 EJ

9

North AmericaCanada* United States of America*

Latin AmericaAnguilla Haiti*Antigua and Barbuda Honduras*Argentina* Jamaica*Aruba MartiniqueBahamas Mexico*Barbados MontserratBelize Netherlands AntillesBermuda Nicaragua*Bolivia* Panama*Brazil* Paraguay*Cayman Islands Peru*Chile* Puerto RicoColombia* S.Georgia & S.Sandwich IslandsCosta Rica* Saint Kitts and NevisCuba* Saint LuciaDominica Saint Pierre and MiquelonDominican Republic* Saint Vincent & the GrenadinesEcuador* SurinameEl Salvador* Trinidad and TobagoGrenada Turks and Caicos IslandsGuadeloupe Uruguay*Guatemala* Venezuela*Guyana

Western EuropeAndorra Liechtenstein*Austria* Luxembourg*Belgium* Malta*Cyprus* Monaco*Denmark* Netherlands*Finland* Norway*France* Portugal*Germany* San MarinoGibraltar Spain*Greece* Svalbard and Jan Mayen IslandsGreenland Sweden*Holy See* Switzerland*Iceland* Turkey*Ireland* United Kingdom*Italy*

GROUPING OF COUNTRIES AND AREAS

The countries and geographical areasincluded in each grouping are listed below

(IAEA Member States are denoted by an asterisk)

*

10

AfricaAlgeria* Malawi*Angola* Mali*Benin* Mauritania*Botswana* Mauritius*Burkina Faso* MayotteBurundi Morocco*Cameroon* Mozambique*Cape Verde Namibia*Central African Republic* Niger*Chad Nigeria*Comoros ReunionCongo RwandaCôte d'Ivoire* Saint HelenaDemocratic Rep. of the Congo* Sao Tome and PrincipeDjibouti Senegal*Egypt* Seychelles*Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone*Eritrea* SomaliaEthiopia* South Africa*Gabon* Sudan*Gambia SwazilandGhana* TogoGuinea Tunisia*Guinea-Bissau Uganda*Kenya* United Republic of Tanzania*Lesotho Western SaharaLiberia* Zambia*Libyan Arab Jamahiriya* Zimbabwe*Madagascar*

Eastern EuropeAlbania* Lithuania*Armenia* Montenegro*

Poland*Azerbaijan*Republic of Moldova*Belarus*Romania*Bosnia and Herzegovina*Russian Federation*Bulgaria*Serbia* Croatia*Slovakia*Czech Republic*Slovenia*Estonia*Tajikistan*Georgia*The Frmr.Yug.Rep. of Macedonia*Hungary*TurkmenistanKazakhstan*Ukraine*Kyrgyzstan*Uzbekistan*Latvia*

*

*

11

Middle East and South AsiaAfghanistan* Kuwait*Bahrain Lebanon*Bangladesh* NepalBhutan OmanBritish Indian Ocean Territory Pakistan*Cocos (Keeling) Islands Qatar*French Southern Territories Saudi Arabia*Heard Island&McDonald Islands Sri Lanka*India* Syrian Arab Republic*Iran, Islamic Republic of* T.T.U.T.J of T. Palestinian A.Iraq* United Arab Emirates*Israel* Yemen*Jordan*

South East Asia and the PacificAustralia* Northern Mariana IslandsBrunei Darussalam Palau*Cook Islands Papua New GuineaFiji Pitcairn IslandsIndonesia* SamoaKiribati Singapore*Malaysia* Solomon IslandsMaldives Thailand*Marshall Islands* Timor LesteMicronesia (Fed. States of) TokelauMyanmar* TuvaluNew Zealand* US Minor Outlying IslandsNiue VanuatuNorfolk Islands Wallis and Futuna Islands

Far EastCambodia Macau, ChinaChina* Mongolia*Dem. P.R. of Korea Philippines*Japan* Taiwan, ChinaKorea, Republic of* Vietnam*Lao P.D.R.

12

Long

-ter

m S

hut

Dow

n Re

acto

rsEl

ectr

icit

y Su

pplie

d by

Nuc

lear

P

ower

Rea

ctor

s in

200

6

13

38.3

TW

·h o

f nu

clea

r el

ectr

icit

y ge

nera

tion

, re

pres

enti

ng 1

9.5%

of

the

tota

l ele

ctri

city

gen

erat

ed.

Long

-ter

m S

hut

Dow

n Re

acto

rsEl

ectr

icit

y Su

pplie

d by

Nuc

lear

P

ower

Rea

ctor

s in

200

6

14

Note: The nuclear share of electricity generation in Taiwan, China was 19.5%.

FIGURE 1. NUCLEAR SHARE OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2006

CHINA

INDIA

PAKISTAN

BRAZIL

NETHERLANDS

SOUTH AFRICA

MEXICO

ARGENTINA

ROMANIA

CANADA

RUSSIA

UK

USA

SPAIN

FINLAND

JAPAN

GERMANY

CZECH REPUBLIC

SWITZERLAND

HUNGARY

KOREA, REPUBLIC OF

SLOVENIA

ARMENIA

BULGARIA

UKRAINE

SWEDEN

BELGIUM

SLOVAKIA

LITHUANIA

FRANCE

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

78.1

72.3

57.2

54.4

48.0

47.6

43.7

42.0

40.3

38.6

37.7

37.4

31.5

31.4

30.0

28.0

19.8

19.4

18.4

15.9

15.8

9.0

6.9

4.9

4.4

3.5

3.1

2.7

2.6

1.8

Nuclear Share (%)

17

%%

%%

18

North Latin Western EasternAmerica America Europe Europe

FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY

2006

2010

2020

2030

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

GW

(e)

19

Africa Middle East & South East Asia Far EastSouth Asia & the Pacific

2006

2010

2020

2030

Nuclear Contribution - Low Estimate

Nuclear Contribution - High Estimate

Total Capacity - Low EstimateTotal Capacity - High Estimate

21

2006

2010

%%

%%

22


FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED BYNUCLEAR POWER

2006

2010

2020

2030

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35Pe

rcen

tage

(%)

23


2006

2010

2020

2030

Nuclear Low Estimate

Nuclear High Estimate

25

Requ

iere

men

tU

Re

quie

rem

ent

URe

quie

rem

ent

URe

quie

rem

ent

U

26


FIGURE 4. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT

2006

2010

2020

2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260EJ

27


2006

2010

2020

2030

Nuclear - Low Estimate

Nuclear – High Estimate

Total – Low Estimate

Total - High Estimate

30


FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT BY FUEL TYPE IN 2006

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

EJ

31


RenewablesNuclear

HydroBiomass

Gases

LiquidsSolids

32

FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT DURING THE PERIOD 1970—2006

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500 Nuclear

HydroBiomass

Gases

LiquidsSolids

Year

EJ

33

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

40


FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES

2006

2010

2020

2030

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500M

illio

ns o

f In

habi

tant

s

41


2006

2010

2020

2030

44


FIGURE 8. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA

2006

2010

2020

2030

0

100

200

300

400

GJ

per

capi

ta

45


2006

2010

2020

2030

Low EstimateHigh Estimate

46


FIGURE 9. TOTAL ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA

2006

2010

2020

2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

GJ

per

capi

ta

47


2006

2010

2020

2030

Low EstimateHigh Estimate

50


FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES DURING THE PERIOD 1996—2006

-3

0

3

6

9 Population

Total Energy Consumption

Total Electricity Consumption

Nuclear Energy Consumption

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%)

51


I N T E R N AT I O N A L AT O M I C E N E R G Y A G E N C YV I E N N A

I S B N 9 7 8 - 9 2 - 0 - 1 0 7 1 0 7 - 1I S S N 1 0 1 1 - 2 6 4 2

CONTENTSINTRODUCTIONGROUPING OF COUNTRIES AND AREASTable 1. Nuclear power reactors in the world (end of 2006)Figure 1. Nuclear share of total electricity generation in 2006Table 2. Number of countries with nuclear power reactors in operation or under construction (end of 2006)Table 3. Estimates of total and nuclear electrical generating capacityFigure 2. Total and nuclear electrical generating capacityTable 4. Estimates of total electricity generation and contribution by nuclear powerFigure 3. Percentage of electricity supplied by nuclear powerTable 5. Estimates of total energy requirement (EJ), percentage used for electricity generation, and percentage supplied by nuclear energyFigure 4. Estimates of total energy requirementTable 6. Total energy requirement (EJ) by fuel type in 2006Figure 5. Total energy requirement by fuel type in 2006Figure 6. Breakdown of world total energy requirement during the period 1970–2006Table 7. Fuel shares (%) of total energy requirement in 2006Table 8. Fuel use (EJ) for electricity generation by type of fuel in 2006Table 9. Percentage contribution of each fuel type to electricity generation in 2006Table 10. Estimates of population growth by regionFigure 7. Population estimatesTable 11. Estimates of total energy and electricity requirement per capitaFigure 8. Total energy requirement per capitaFigure 9. Total electricity requirement per capitaTable 12. Average annual growth rates during the period 1996–2006 (%)Figure 10. Average annual growth rates during the period 1996–2006 (%)Table 13. Estimates of average annual growth rates during the period 2006–2030 (%)

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