energy-environment analysis framework iii
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Consequences of Ecosystem Changes
How and what to Control?? Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop
Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment
The system approach links human activities and their consequences in closed loopIt is the minimum set of linked components – if any missing, the system is crippledEach component depends on its causal upstream driver – and external environmentThe causal loop can be used as an organizing principle for sustainability analysis
Analysis Framework III – Causality LoopEconomic Development with Due Care of the
Environment
Health-Welfare
Energy-Environment
Socio-Economic
Causality: Linear System Model
Trend of Indicators
SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu
1960s
1980s
1990s0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040GDP(Mill$)/PersonEnergy(Bbtu)/GDP(Mill$)SOx/Energy(Bbtu)PopulationSOX Emiss
Population - Energy/Goods Consumption– Materials Flow - Emissions
Ek = cjk EMj = bij cjk GEi = ai bij cjk P
Industr. Energy
Transp. Energy
ResCom.Engy
Coal
Oil
GasElectric Energy
SOx
NOx
HC
PM
Goods &Energy,(GE) i Fuels&Mater.(FM), j Emission (EM), k
Ind. Chemicals
Industr. Goods
Pop., P
Metals
Mercury
ai
Consump./Person
bij
Fuels/Energy
cjk
Emission/Fuel-
j ji i i j
Consumption of Goods and Energy: GE = ai P
Fuels and Materials Flow: FM = ai bij P
Emission of Pollutants: EM = ai bij cjk P
Industrial Prod.
Transportation
ResComercial
EconMeasure(EM)
Coal Production and S Content
Coal Sulfur Flow in 1980 and 1998
• In 1980, a major flow of sulfur in coal originated in Illinois and was transported to Florida
Arrows indicate the flow of coal from the mines to the consumer
• By 1990, the transport of high sulfur coal from the Midwest has bee replaced by low sulfur western coal
Pollutant Transfer by Fuels and Minerals:Spatial Transfer Matrices
Carbon Emission Drivers for TransportationEnv 449 - 2007
Carbon Emission Trends - Passenger Transportation 1960-2003
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Perc
ent C
hang
e
Carbon Emission Drivers for Cars
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Population, 1990 N Car PMT/Person, 1990 NCar VMT/Car PMT, 1990 N Fuel/VMT, 1990NTotal Carbon Emission 1990N
Carbon Emission Drivers for Housing
Close-Loop FrameworksThree Frameworks:
– Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science)– Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance)– Causality Loop (Social-Material Science)
Main Challenges:- Balancing Loops- Network Effects in Causality- Integrating Socio-economic, Physico-chemical, Health-Welfare