Energy for tomorrowEnergy for tomorrow

Dwindling suppliesGlobal warming

The race for alternatives: what, when and how much?

Facts about fossil fuelsFacts about fossil fuels

• Any carbon based energy source that is derived from the decomposition of organic matter– Natural gasNatural gas– OilOil– CoalCoal

• It is a remarkable energy source• It is not renewable• It contributes to greenhouse gases

The Big Three of energyThe Big Three of energy

• Fossil fuels have always dominated energy production – and continue to do so

• Nuclear has made slow to no progress• Hydro and others are at the trace level

The challenge: fossil fuels are great The challenge: fossil fuels are great energy sourcesenergy sources

• Easily transported• Flexible • High energy density• The energy content of 500 gallons of gasoline is

equivalent to– ~ 3 short tons of coal~ 3 short tons of coal– ~ 60,000 cubic feet of natural gas~ 60,000 cubic feet of natural gas– ~ 450 gallons of diesel fuel~ 450 gallons of diesel fuel– ~ 991 gallons of methanol~ 991 gallons of methanol– ~ 1925 gallons of liquid hydrogen gas (that’s pretty ~ 1925 gallons of liquid hydrogen gas (that’s pretty

cold)cold)– ~ 6060 gallons of high-pressure hydrogen gas~ 6060 gallons of high-pressure hydrogen gas

A change is gonna comeA change is gonna come

• Fossil fuels are not replaced and reserves are finite – particularly gas and oil

• Carbon deposition in the atmosphere is associated with global warming – societal pressure to change

• Increased demand is beginning to outstrip supply

• Alternatives to fossil fuels are required but what and when?

Energy problems part I: sourcesEnergy problems part I: sources

• Traditional sources will not keep up with demand– They are finite in quantityThey are finite in quantity– More people want themMore people want them

Millions of Barrels per day (“Oil Equivalent”)300

200

100

01860 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060 2100

The illusion of energy The illusion of energy independenceindependence

• Oil imports were 35 % in 1973

• In 2003 imports were 55 %• Other major industrialized

nations are worse off• Reduced imports will not

reduce prices: oil is a global commodity, the price of which is determined by global markets

Energy problems part II: sinksEnergy problems part II: sinks• Hazian logic and global

warming – Increased COIncreased CO22 causes causes

global warmingglobal warming– Fossil fuels produce COFossil fuels produce CO22

– Fossil fuels produce global Fossil fuels produce global warmingwarming

People in glass houses…People in glass houses…• Consumption of fossil fuels produces CO2

– Greenhouse gas – absorbs IR radiationGreenhouse gas – absorbs IR radiation• Higher energy radiation (UV and visible)

penetrates the atmosphere• It is released as lower energy radiation (IR)

which does not escape • 90 % likelihood that climate changed is man-

made (increased CO2)

COCO22: the three bears of climate : the three bears of climate controlcontrol

• Venus: way too much• Mars: way too little• Earth: just right (about 300 ppm)

– But there’s a fine edgeBut there’s a fine edge

Greenhouse gases: it’s not all COGreenhouse gases: it’s not all CO22

• Carbon dioxide (CO2)

• Methane (CH4)

• Water vapour (H2O)

• Nitrous oxide (N2O)

• Ozone (O3)• CFCs

Climate change: what we knowClimate change: what we know

• Temperatures have been rising• CO2 levels have been rising• Connect the dots...

Climate change: what we speculateClimate change: what we speculate

• Models make predictions for the future based on assumptions

• If global warming is entirely due to CO2 then…– Educating RitaEducating Rita– But what if it’s not…But what if it’s not…

Pascal’s wager: it’s safer to bet on Pascal’s wager: it’s safer to bet on it than against itit than against it

• Alternative energy sources• Reduction of CO2 emission from fossil

fuels• Biomass – grow your own gas

– To be continuedTo be continued

Alternative energy sourcesAlternative energy sources

• Wind• Solar• Wave• Hydroelectric• Biodiesel• Ethanol• Nuclear fission• Nuclear fusion• Hydrogen

Kicking the fossil fuel habitKicking the fossil fuel habit

• Beyond the problem of providing alternative fuels for transportation is the broader question of providing alternative means to generating energy

• Fossil fuels represent a remarkable energy source:– Almost 600 car batteries are required to store Almost 600 car batteries are required to store

the energy contained in one 15 gallon tank of the energy contained in one 15 gallon tank of gasolinegasoline

Alternative fuels to petroleumAlternative fuels to petroleum• LPG – liquefied petroleum gas (fossil fuel) –

clean burning• Compressed natural gas (fossil fuel) – plentiful,

clean burning – requires compression• Ethanol – biomass, renewable, efficient,

expensive, limited capacity• Methanol – clean, efficient, corrosive, some

products are hazardous

A pact with the devilA pact with the devil

• Nuclear power accounts for 70 % of non-fossil power

• It does not contribute to greenhouse gases• Proven technology• Waste disposal an enduring issue• Connections with weapons and terrorism

are concerns

Let’s conserve our way outLet’s conserve our way out

• Current automobiles use 60 % of the fuel used by 1972 models

• Refrigerators use 33 % of the electricity• Current GDP requires about 50 % of the

energy required in 1973• Demand has still increased overall by 30

%• Did you know that plasma TV uses 10x

more electricity?

We will sacrifice for green?We will sacrifice for green?

• Perception: petrol prices are too high!!• Reality: current energy costs are only 5 –

6 % of personal income– In the 1980’s the costs were 8 – 9 %In the 1980’s the costs were 8 – 9 %

• Perception: $2 gallon is too high• Reality: $2 gallon is too low

– Hybrid vehicle sales are 1 – 2 %Hybrid vehicle sales are 1 – 2 %– SUV sales are 25 %SUV sales are 25 %

The hydrogen economy: in our The hydrogen economy: in our lifetime?lifetime?

• Hydrogen has the best energy content by the pound: compare kcal/g of common fuelsEthanol - 7.1Ethanol - 7.1Bituminous coal - 6.8Bituminous coal - 6.8Gasoline - 8.7Gasoline - 8.7Natural gas -11.8Natural gas -11.8Hydrogen - 34.2Hydrogen - 34.2

• Clean green: combustion product is water• “The Department of Energy's plan shows that it

will take decades to fully realize the benefits of hydrogen.” quote from C&E News August 22, 2005

Hype or hydrogenHype or hydrogen

• Hydrogen is an energy storage system – not a source

• Hydrogen does not grow on trees (or come out of the ground)

• It must be extracted from some other source– Electrolysis of water (uses electricity)Electrolysis of water (uses electricity)– From decomposition of natural gas, coal or other From decomposition of natural gas, coal or other

biomass (needs energy)biomass (needs energy)• The hydrogen economy still demands a solution

to the energy problem; it does not solve it by itself

Caging the beastCaging the beast

• Hydrogen is a gas, a small molecule and diffuses rapidly through leaks

• It is flammable• Hydrogen storage is a major issue

Hydrogen and the fuel cellHydrogen and the fuel cell

• Fuel cells are like batteries except reactants are supplied from without rather than within

2H2 + O2 = 2H2O• Electrical energy powers the car• H2O is the only emission• Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will not achieve

volume until 2030 (it at all)

Hybrid vehicles: compromiseHybrid vehicles: compromise

• Hybrids combine gas and electrical engines to improve gas mileage

• Not a total solution to carbon deposition but a practical intermediate

• Direction of resources to hydrogen fuel cells has reduced emphasis on this technology

• Counterpoint: increased investment is required in hydrogen technology to ensure success

Blowin’ in the windBlowin’ in the wind

• Windpower costs have fallen 80 %• Solar power costs have decreased• Hydroelectric: rather depends on the rivers• Total markets for wind/solar/fuel cells

projected to increase from $16 bn in 2004 to $102 bn in 2014

Want to know more?Want to know more?• Hydrogen economy

– http://www.hydrogennow.org/http://www.hydrogennow.org/– http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/http://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/

• Solar power– http://www.solarpower.com/http://www.solarpower.com/– http://http://www.eere.energy.gov/RE/solar.htmlwww.eere.energy.gov/RE/solar.html

• Windpower– http://http://www.awea.orgwww.awea.org//

• Biomass– http://http://www.nrel.govwww.nrel.gov/biomass//biomass/

• Fuel cell and hybrid vehicles– http://http://www.hybridcars.comwww.hybridcars.com//– http://http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/fcv_whatsnew.shtmlwww.fueleconomy.gov/feg/fcv_whatsnew.shtml