Paul J. Werbos Program Director

Energy, Power, and Adaptive Systems (EPAS)

Division of Electrical, Communications

and Cyber Systems (ECCS)

National Science Foundation (But today presenting personal views only.)

(search for EPAS at www.nsf.gov)

Energy from Space (ES): Challenges Ahead from Technical to Political

EPAS Now Funds the Entire Range

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We also aim for the smart grid and markets of the future which make optimal, sustainable use of all these.

Local Distributed

Power Distribution

Energy

Power

Grid

Major Past Watersheds in ES Research

Peter Glaser 1960’s, SSP concept Gerard O’Neill 1974/5: L5 (DC rep, NSS) NASA/DOE reference designs: 5.5¢/kwh -- not Mankins, 1990s: NASA Fresh Look Study, NAS

endorsement 2002: NSF/NASA JIETSSP.

– Best cost estimates at 17 cents or more – New DD concept, hybrid fusion-solar, ES but not SSP – 12 awards, e.g. breakthrough work by Pavlividis now

at NSF

The sub-harmonically injection locked large array approach

• A large active array is constructed by phase locking many sub-arrays which are injection locked to a voltage-controlled oscillator (VCO) to improve its stability. • The VCOs are phase locked to a sub-harmonic master oscillator distributed across the large array either via coax cable or optical fiber. • Phase shifters: correction of unequal path delays and tuning of radiated beam. study fundamental issues associated with injection locking in large antenna array: phase jitter across the whole array; existence of multimodes and parasitic oscillations; phase locking bandwidth and its near the carrier phase noise, which will impact the microwave beam shape and integrity. •D. Pavlidis (BU), A. Mortazawi (UM), J.

Volakis (OSU)

New Paradigm for SSP: no heavy power distribution system (PMAD), no long wires vulnerable to solar flares (EMP)

How Can We Reach This Target As Soon as Possible At Highest Probability of Success?: – SSP supplies >10% of world electricity – Cost of electricity from the rectenna

≤10¢/kwh Why this is a good focus for strategic thinking How to get there – technology, investment and

politics

But first good news: start from nss.org/EU

Links from nss.org/EU: – NIAC Report: New

Design for 9¢/kwh if launch costs down to $500/kg-LEO

– DARPA XS-1 Technology could get us to ≤$500/kg-LEO

• US and EU are already above 10 cents per kwh. China is less, but heavily subsidized, encountering shortages and price rises with coal (not counting CO2)

• OECD/IEA: world uses 20 terawatt hours per year (2008). At 10 cents per

kwh, that is worth $2 trillion per year. With wind or solar supplying all, that would double or more. (Storage needs, backup, regulation.)

Getting to the Goal: Parallel Tracks A Team: NIAC + two-stage horizontal rocketplane

+ LEO-to-GEO system Important “backup and future” B-teams:

– For NIAC part: nonterrestrial materials; solar thermal in space (e.g. JTEC?); laser-induced D-D fusion in space (Perkins LLNL); mirrors direct to earth (also for geoengineering?)

– For space access: airbreathers (post NASP), plasma airbreathers, others?

A Team is most assured path to goal (cousin of TRL); others less assured or not all the way to goal.

The NIAC Concept: “Build an SSP From 8 Basic ‘Lego’ Blocks”, All

Under 500 kg (mostly 50)

•Immediate key tasks doable on earth: build, characterize and tune each type of block; extend the simulation model for ray tracing, first order stability analysis, heat flow, and open competitions for design; then: analysis of real-time control (EPAS!); robotic or telerobotic assembly and maintenance (NRI , EPAS, Fukuda, NAIST)

NASP: An L5 Victory That Wasn’t

• L5 discussion with Boeing TAV, Bnai Brith, SDI • Implementation: Boeing bypassed, TAV ended • Learned Hard Lessons About TPS = Active fluid cooling

NSF/McAir Workshop 1990

White and Sofge eds, Van Nostrand, 1992

McAir NASP

Plasma Hypersonics: ANSER/Chase NSF$

REDUCED DRAG: AAC 1st; Ganguly (APS00)shows it should work >Mach 4, 100K feet; allows Boeing RAS/V

Ebeam or .... MHD Energy

Extraction

MHD Acceleration

Best plasma theory predicts new Princeton design will allow ramjets to reach Mach 12, scram much more... Ames and Chase (ANSER) whole-system SSTO designs..

Unexpected Outcome: Near-Term Design Has Passed Tough Peer Review, Scrutiny

•Rocketplane RLV can be built now for near-term use, essential to use/enhancement of endangered off-the-shelf legacy technology needed for more advanced high-efficiency concepts •Need Big vehicle to minimize $/lb (initial $200/lb REAL) - 1.2 million pounds, $10-15 billion, not a small business •Horizontal takeoff essential for aircraft operations (see also Mueller 60’s) and for big-wing lower heat load on re-entry •Design allows use of formerly black hot structures technology instead of flaky tiles, ablative structures, hard-to-control slush •Project chart 4 years, AF mission model enough for profit

Validated Hot Structures and Thermal Protection System

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Checked with the unique test lab at WPAFB

Current Status • Hot structure technology is stranded and endangered. Boeing lost the only test article. This year, TAV team sent to four winds, people and teams still available but barely and not for long. • NASA has some capability (Glass@Langley) but not supported • Space Launch System now required to be useless – but could NSS and our friends upgrade it? • SpaceX lacks this technology, ablatives won’t meet their long-term goals. Could NASA R&D help them all? • X37B and required to use ATK carbon technology which works, but a cost issue… in space. • DARPA ALASA & WPAFB could have solved the problem, but were scaled back by political folks … But XS-1 might save us! • China has a NASP program, maybe just a rerun of small hope •Russia/France – unknown but they seem alert

Political Dimensions Due to ITAR rules (see nss.org/itar), we need “two

consortia” – low cost launch, and SSP proper for the international market, with strong links & mutual commitments. (If Iran buys nonnuclear kwh from whom?)

For SSP proper, Japan leads. New China $20m/year, with CAS and Sichuan (“the real space program”). In Lego world, $20m/year can buy a lot.

Will US join the SSP R&D? Alone? With India? Roles of NASA, DOD, NSF?

Will XS-1 avoid political traps which destroyed all of its predecessors? Will private sector launch companies make full use of it?

EIU market a crucial opportunity for pricate investment of any kind.