energy midstream oil & ngls waterborne lpg overview · 2016. 11. 11. · presentation ihs...
TRANSCRIPT
ihs.com
© 2016 IHS
Presentation
IHS
Waterborne LPG Overview
ENERGY Midstream Oil & NGLs
November 2016 – IHS Latin America LPG Seminar
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Scott Gray, Senior Director - Waterborne, +1 832-679-7268, [email protected]
ENERGY
© 2016 IHS
Contents
2
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
slatoT gnitfiL retawrevO labolG
slatoT gnitfiL retawrevO lanoigeR
slatoT gnitfiL retawrevO SU
lanimreT yb slatoT gnitfiL retawrevO SU
tcudorP yb slatoT gnitfiL retawrevO SU
yb slatoT gnitfiL retawrevO SU
Destination Region
nosirapmoC gnicirP
seeF lanimreT
teelF & stropxE enahtE
thgierF
etadpU sutatS lanimreT SU
etadpU lanaC amanaP
aisA & SU – HDP
snoisulcnoC
© 2016 IHS 3
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS 4
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS 5
Global Liftings: Source & Destination
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS 6
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
489
578
673
354
707
257
307
334
177
353
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014 2015 1H 2016 2016 *
IsoButane Butane Propane Ethane
Global Annual Waterborne LPG Lifting Totals
Source: IHS Waterborne © 2016 IHS
Mil
lio
n B
arr
els
© 2016 IHS 7
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2016*
Other
Southeast Asia
Australia
Middle East
North Sea
West Africa
North America
Mediterranean
Latin America
Regional Annual Waterborne LPG Lifting Totals
Source: IHS Waterborne © 2016 IHS
Mil
lio
n B
arr
els
© 2016 IHS 8
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2016*
Other
Far East
Australia
Middle East
North Sea
West Africa
North America
Mediterranean
Latin America
Regional Annual Waterborne LPG Destination
Source: IHS Waterborne © 2016 IHS
Mil
lio
n B
arr
els
© 2016 IHS 9
Terminal Overview
Pricing
Terminal Fees
Cancellations
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
US LPG Liftings: Source & Destination
© 2016 IHS 10
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2016*
United States Annual Waterborne LPG Lifting Totals
Source: IHS Waterborne © 2016 IHS
Mil
lio
n B
arr
els
© 2016 IHS 11
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2016*
C2
C3
NC4
IC4
United States Annual Waterborne Exports By Product
Source: IHS Waterborne © 2016 IHS
Mil
lio
n B
arr
els
© 2016 IHS 12
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2016*
Other
Ferndale, WA (S)
Corpus Christi, TX (S)
Marcus Hook, PA (B)
Nederland, TX (S)
Houston, TX (S)
Galena Park, TX (S)
United States Annual Waterborne LPG Exports by Terminal
Source: IHS Waterborne © 2016 IHS
Mil
lio
n B
arr
les
© 2016 IHS 13
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2016*
Other
Far East
Med/WAF/NWEurope
Latin America
United States Annual WAterborneLPG Exports By Destination Region
Source: IHS Waterborne © 2016 IHS
Mil
lio
n B
arr
els
© 2016 IHS 14
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1000
12001/2
/2014
2/2
/2014
3/2
/2014
4/2
/2014
5/2
/2014
6/2
/2014
7/2
/2014
8/2
/2014
9/2
/2014
10/2
/2014
11/2
/2014
12/2
/2014
1/2
/2015
2/2
/2015
3/2
/2015
4/2
/2015
5/2
/2015
6/2
/2015
7/2
/2015
8/2
/2015
9/2
/2015
10/2
/2015
11/2
/2015
12/2
/2015
1/2
/2016
2/2
/2016
3/2
/2016
4/2
/2016
5/2
/2016
6/2
/2016
7/2
/2016
8/2
/2016
9/2
/2016
USGC Propane and terminal fee Far East Propane NWE Propane
Propane Pricing
Source: OPIS, Argus © 2016 IHS
$/t
on
© 2016 IHS 15
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
0
200
400
600
800
1000
12001/2
/2014
2/2
/2014
3/2
/2014
4/2
/2014
5/2
/2014
6/2
/2014
7/2
/2014
8/2
/2014
9/2
/2014
10/2
/2014
11/2
/2014
12/2
/2014
1/2
/2015
2/2
/2015
3/2
/2015
4/2
/2015
5/2
/2015
6/2
/2015
7/2
/2015
8/2
/2015
9/2
/2015
10/2
/2015
11/2
/2015
12/2
/2015
1/2
/2016
2/2
/2016
3/2
/2016
4/2
/2016
5/2
/2016
6/2
/2016
7/2
/2016
8/2
/2016
9/2
/2016
USGC Butane and terminal fee NWE Butane Far East Butane
Butane Pricing
Source: OPIS, Argus © 2016 IHS
$/t
on
© 2016 IHS 16
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
C3 Export Fee C4 Export Fee
USGC terminal fees
Source: IHS Waterborne © 2016 IHS
cen
ts/g
allo
n
© 2016 IHS
Different Types of Terminal Fees
• Term Contract Fees – This is Related To Those Contracts Which Span
the Course of A Designated Period of Time (1-Year, 3-Years, 5-Years,
etc).
• Spot Terminal Fees – This is Related To One-Off, Individually
Negotiated Spot Transactions
• Spot Re-Sale Term Fees – This is Related to Transactions Between
Term Contract Holders and 3rd Parties
17
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS
USGC Cargo Cancellations
• USGC Cancellations Occur When the Lifter Determines That a
Scheduled Cargo Is Either Unwanted or Unneeded
• Previously, Cancellation Notification of 30 Days Was Required In Order
To Avoid Additional Cancellation Fees / Penalties
• Earlier in 2016 The USGC Marine Terminals Began To Allow
Cancellations Up Until the Last Day of the Prior Month
• Cancellation Fees Vary from Contract to Contract, but are Generally
Centered around 9cts/gal (in most cases)
18
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS 19
Freight Rates & VLGC Fleet
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS 20
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
1/20/2005 1/20/2006 1/20/2007 1/20/2008 1/20/2009 1/20/2010 1/20/2011 1/20/2012 1/20/2013 1/20/2014 1/20/2015 1/20/2016
Ras Tanura to Japan 84000 cbm
Ras Tanura to Japan 84000 cbm
Source: IHS Waterborne © 2016 IHS
ce
nts
/ga
llo
n
© 2016 IHS 21
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
0
2
4
6
8
10
12M
ar-
15
May-1
5
Jul-15
Sep-1
5
Nov-
15
Jan-1
6
Mar-
16
May-1
6
Jul-16
Sep-1
6
Nov-
16
Jan-1
7
Mar-
17
May-1
7
Jul-17
Sep-1
7
Nov-
17
Jan-1
8
Mar-
18
May-1
8
Jul-18
Sep-1
8
Nov-
18
Jan-1
9
Mar-
19
May-1
9
Jul-19
Sep-1
9
Nov-
19
Jan-2
0
Mar-
20
May-2
0
Jul-20
Sep-2
0
Nov-
20
Jan-2
1
Tto
tal F
leet
Nu
mb
er
of S
hip
s
VLGC Orderbook
Newbuildings Total VLGC's
© 2016 IHS 22
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS 23
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS
US Ethane Exports
• Overwater ethane exports from the US commenced in March 2016
from the Marcus Hook, PA terminal
• Monthly volumes have averaged ~44,000mt
• The destination has thus far been 100% to Europe (Rafnes,
Stenungsund and Grangemouth).
• Gulf Coast ethane exports began in Sep 2016 from Morgans Point
• Large-scaleyreV)s’CELVehtecnodetapicitnaerastropxeenahte
Large Ethane Carriers) are completed and launched from the shipyard
• The Ethane Fleet will (eventually) consist of:
• 15 Ethane Carriers @ 27,500-36,000cbm
• 11 86-87,000cbm(noitcurtsnocrednu)s’CELV
24
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS 25
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Gulf Coast East Coast Cumulative total
US Ethane Exports
Source: IHS Waterborne © 2016 IHS
Mo
nth
ly M
etr
ic to
ns
Cu
mu
lative M
etr
ic T
on
s
© 2016 IHS 26
PDH: US & China
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS 27
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
China US
New PDH Capacity in US and China
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
s
© 2016 IHS
PDH projects have come as planned
Under construction Planning Operating
• Ten PDH Projects on-stream
with four million ton capacity
• Two more will be on stream this
year
• All feedstock propane is
imported
• Poor economics challenged
operation
• Most planned projects will not
be built
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
28
© 2016 IHS 29
Panama Canal
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS 30
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS 31
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS 32
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS 33
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
© 2016 IHS 34
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
From July to September Eastbound Cargoes from the US Have Utilized The Panama Canal ~30% of the Time
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Total Eastbound Exports via Panama
June-July 2016 U.S. to Far East Exports via Panama Canal
Source: IHS Waterborne © 2016 IHS
Mil
lio
n B
arr
els
© 2016 IHS
Key takeaways
• Overall Global Overwater LPG Volumes Are Increasing, And Will
Continue To Grow as Production Around the World Naturally Improves
• Much of the Increase Has Been Sourced from the US – Which Will
Continue to be the Case
• The Need for Additional US LPG Marine Capacity is Estimated ~ 2020
• Terminal Fees Should Continue at Below 10cts/gal ($52/mt)
• Market Values In the US relative to Europe and the East Will Continue
to be the Deciding Factor
• PDH Health and Growth Will Clearly Play a Prominent Role
• Freight Rates are – Considering the Orderbook – Likely to Remain
Relatively Depressed
• Panama Canal Will Be Utilized Opportunistically For US Cargoes
Going East
35
Waterborne LPG Overview / November 2016
IHSTM
COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER © 2016 IHS. For internal use of IHS clients only.
No portion of this r eport may be reproduc ed, reused, or otherwise d istributed in any form without pr ior written c ons ent, with the exception of any int ernal cl ient distribution as may be permitted in t he l icense agreem ent bet ween cl ient and IHS. Content reproduc ed or r edistributed with IHS perm ission must dis play IHS legal notices and attribut ions of authorsh ip. The informat ion contained here in is from sour ces considered re liable, but its accur acy and com pleteness are not warr anted, nor ar e the
opinions and analys es that ar e based upon it, and to the extent per mitted by law, IHS s hall not be liable for any err ors or omiss ions or any loss, damage, or expense inc urred by r elianc e on inf ormation or any statement cont ained her ein. In partic ular, please note that no repres entat ion or warranty is giv en as to the achievement or r eas onableness of, and no rel iance s hould be p lac ed on, any pro jections, forecasts, estim ates, or as sum ptions, and, due to v arious r isks and uncert aint ies, actual events
and r esults may d iffer mater ial ly from for ecasts and stat ements of be lief noted her ein. This report is not to be c onstrued as legal or financ ia l adv ice, and use of or r el iance on any infor mation in this public ation is entir ely at cl ient’s own risk. IHS and the IHS logo are trademarks of IHS.
IHS Customer Care:
Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273)
Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300
Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600
ENERGY INSIGHT