energy outlook - north sumatra

REGIONAL ENERGY OUTLOOK

SUMATERA UTARA PROVINCE

YEAR 2005 - 2025

The CAREPI Team Sumatera Utara

Institute for Research and Community/Services

University of Sumatera Utara

(LP3M USU)

Mining and Energy Office

Provincial Government Sumatera Utara

In Collaboration with :

Preface Our prayers and grateful thanks are addressed to Allah for His blessing in the compila-

tion of this book, entitled “Regional Energi Outlook Province of Sumatera Utara 2005- 2025”. This book is one of outcome of Contributing to Poverty Alleviation through Regional Energy Planning in Indonesia (CAREPI) Project, that is a collaboration between Institute for Research and Community Services – University of Sumatera Utara, Mining and Energy Office of North Sumatera Province, Data and Information Center of Energy and Mineral Resources – Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Center for Energy Policy – Institute of Technlogy of Bandung, Energy Research Cen-ter of Netherlands, SenterNovem – Netherlands, and European Union. This book contains energy demand and supply data, included several scenario energy policies refer to National Energy Policy and Regional Energy Policy in Sumatera Utara Province untill 2025. The data in this book is compiled and calculated from various sources, i.e. from: Mining and Energy Office and Transportation office of North Sumatera Province, BPS (Statistics Office), PT. PLN (electricity state company), PT. Pertamina (oil and gas state company), PT. PGN (gas state company), and PT. KAI (rail ways state company). Therefore, we would like to express our thanks to all parties that allowed their data to be compiled in this book. This book is expected to be a reference for energy observers and students as well as the general public who may require energy supply – demand data in North Sumatera Province. We understand that this book still requires further improvement. We hope that the publication of energy data in North Sumatera will be conducted continually. Medan, October 2009 Study Team

Advisor Ir. Washington Tambunan Head of Mining and Energy Office, Sumatera Utara Province Prof dr. Darwin Dalimunthe, Ph.D Director of Institute for Research and Community Service, University of Sumatera Utara Steering Committee Ir. Nico van der Linden, Energy Research Center of Netherlands Koen Smekens, Energy Research Center of Netherlands Oetomo Tri Winarno, Institute of Technology of Bandung Study Team Chairman : Prof. Dr. Ir. Usman Baafai

Member : Soeharwinto, ST., MT.

Drs. Paidi Hidayat, M.Si Drs. Ngukurken Sembiring Ir. Asril Hedbien Sinaga, ST Marthin L. Tarigan, AMD

Contents

List of tables 5

List of figures 5

Glossary 7

Conversion of energy unit to boe 8

1 Introduction 9 1.1 Task 9 1.2 Objectives 9 1.3 Scope and Boundary 9

2 General information 10 2.1 Geographic 10 2.2 Government 10 2.3 Population 11 2.4 Macroeconomic Condition 12 2.5 Energy Issues 14

3 Current Energy Situation 16 3.1 Energy Consumption 16 3.2 Energy Supply 17

3.2.1 Energy supply 17 3.2.2 Electricity 18

4 Energy Scenarios 20 4.1 Energy policies 20

4.1.1 National Energy Policy (KEN) 20 4.1.2 Regional Energy Policy (KED) 21

4.2 Scenario assumptions and parameters 21 4.2.1 Scenario assumptions 21 4.2.2 Scenario parameters 22

4.3 Energy scenario outcomes 23 4.3.1 Demand side 23 4.3.2 SUPPLY SIDE 27 4.3.3 Comparison KEN and KED results 30

5 Pro-poor Energy Access 51 5.1 Poor Village Profile 51

5.1.1 Social-Economic Condition 52 5.2 Design of Proposed Energy Infrastructure 55

6 Renewable Energy - Micro hydro Projects 56 6.1 Design and Development 56 6.2 Recommendation 57

7 Conclusion and Recommendation 58 7.1 Conclusion 58 7.2 Recommendation 60

REFERENCES 62

List of tables

Table 2.1 Regencies/Cities in Sumatera Utara Province 11 Table 2.2 Population of Sumatera Utara Province in 2005 12 Table 2.3 GRDP by Regency/City in 2005 13 Table 2.4 GRDP sector/activity of Sumatera Utara Province in 2001 – 2005 13 Table 2.5 GRDP Growth and Inflation of Sumatera Utara Province in 2000 – 2005 14 Table 4.1 The Percentage of Phase Target Using Biodiesel 21 Table 4.2 The Percentage of Phase Target Using Bioetanol 22 Table 4.3 The Percentage of Phase Target Using Nabati Oil 22 Table 4.4 Population Growth of Sumatera Utara Province 22 Table 6.1 Design Charateristic of PLTMH Borus 56 Table 6.2 Cost Estimation PLTMH Borus project 56 Table 6.3 Financial Analysis PLTMH Borus 57 Error! No table of figures entries found.

List of figures

Figure 2.1 Map of Sumatera Utara Province 10 Figure 3.1 Final Energy in Sumatera Utara 2005 16 Figure 3.2 Final Energy Consumption in Sumatera Utara 2005 16 Figure 3.3 Final Energy in Sumatera Utara 2005 17 Figure 3.4 Transformation Energy in Sumatera Utara 2005 18 Figure 3.5 Power Plant Transformations in Sumatera Utara 2005 18 Figure 3.6 Electricity demand in Sumatera Utara 2005 19 Figure 4.1 Final Energy Demand per sector 2005 - 2025 24 Figure 4.2 Final Energy Demand per energy type 2005 - 2025 25 Figure 4.3 Final Energy Demand per sector 2005 - 2025 26 Figure 4.4 Final Energy Demand per type 2005 - 2025 27 Figure 4.5 Domestic Energy supply per sector 2005 - 2025 28 Figure 4.6 Domestic Energy supply per type 2005 - 2025 28 Figure 4.7 Domestic Energy supply per sector 2005 - 2025 29 Figure 4.8 Domestic Energy supply per type 2005 - 2025 30 Figure 4.9 Final Energy Demand per Household per sector 2005 - 2025 31 Figure 4.10 Final Energy Demand per Household per sector 2005 - 2025 31 Figure 4.11 Final Energy Demand per Household per type 2005 - 2025 32 Figure 4.12 Final Energy Demand per Household per type 2005 - 2025 32 Figure 4.13 Final Energy Demand per Household/Rural per sector 2005 - 2025 33 Figure 4.14 Final Energy Demand per Household/Rural per sector 2005 - 2025 33 Figure 4.15 Final Energy Demand per Household/Rural per type 2005 - 2025 34 Figure 4.16 Final Energy Demand per Household/Rural per type 2005 - 2025 35 Figure 4.17 Final Energy Demand per Household/Rural per sector 2005 - 2025 35 Figure 4.18 Final Energy Demand per Household/Rural per sector 2005 - 2025 36 Figure 4.19 Final Energy Demand per Household/Rural per type 2005 - 2025 37 Figure 4.20 Final Energy Demand per Household/Rural per type 2005 - 2025 37 Figure 4.21 Final Energy Demand Commercial per sector 2005 – 2025 38 Figure 4.22 Final Energy Demand Commercial per type 2005 – 2025 39 Figure 4.23 Final Energy Demand Commercial per sector 2005 – 2025 40 Figure 4.24 Final Energy Demand Commercial per type 2005 – 2025 40 Figure 4.25 Final Energy Demand Industry per sector 2005 – 2025 41

Figure 4.26 Final Energy Demand Industry per type 2005 – 2025 42 Figure 4.27 Final Energy Demand Industry per sector 2005 – 2025 43 Figure 4.28 Final Energy Demand Industry per type 2005 – 2025 43 Figure 4.29 Final Energy Demand Transportation per sector 2005 – 2025 44 Figure 4.30 Final Energy Demand Transportation per type 2005 – 2025 45 Figure 4.31 Final Energy Demand Transportation per sector 2005 – 2025 45 Figure 4.32 Final Energy Demand Transportation per type 2005 – 2025 46 Figure 4.33 Final Energy Demand Others per sector 2005 – 2025 47 Figure 4.34 Final Energy Demand Others per type 2005 – 2025 47 Figure 4.35 Final Energy Demand Others per sector 2005 – 2025 48 Figure 4.36 Final Energy Demand Others per sector 2005 – 2025 48 Figure 4.37 Condition of electricity production and demand requirements 49 Figure 4.38 Condition of electricity production and demand requirements 50 Figure 5.1 Map Sitardas Village (from http://www.coremap.or.id) 51 Figure 5.2 Population composition based on age (source: Kampung Sawah lane residents data 2008) 52 Figure 5.3 Age structure male population (source: Kampung Sawah lane residents data 2008) 52 Figure 5.4 Age structure female population (source: Kampung Sawah lane residents data 2008) 53 Figure 6.1 Revenue projection for 20 years advance curve 57

Glossary

BBL Barrel BPS Badan Pusat Statistik, Statistics Office Elasticity of Energy Final Use

Growth of energy final use divided by growth of GRDP

Final Energy Energy that is used at consumer point Primary Energy Energy in the firs form or in the original form in nature Secondary Energy Energy that derivated of processed from primary energi Poverty Line Minimum physical basic need per capita, consist of food 2,100 calo-

rie/capita/day, clothes, transportation, school, and other basic need; that the value is different from one place to the other

GWh Giga watt hour GWh Giga watt hour Intensity The amount of energy use for each energy use activity unit KL Kilo liter kmc Kilo meter circuit kV Kilo volt kVA Kilo volt ampere kW Kilo watt MBBL Million barrel MMBTU Million British Thermal Unit MMSCF Million Standard Cubic Feet MSCF Thousand Standard Cubic Feet MSCFD Thousand Standard Cubic Feet per Day MSTB Thousand Stock Tank Barrel MVA Mega volt ampere MW Mega watt MWh Mega watt hour GDRP Gross Domestic Regional Product, that is the total output of economy

from a region Electrification Ratio The number of electrified household divided by total number of house-

hold BOE Barrel of Oil Equivalent ADO IDO FO

Automotive Diesel Oil Industry Diesel Oil Fuel Oil

Conversion of energy unit to boe

Type of Energy Origin Unit Multiplier to BOE

Coal Coal *) Ton 4,0000 Coal Briquette *) Ton 3,5000 Biomass Charcoal *) m3 1,0000 Wood *) m3 0,5000 Natural Gas Natural Gas MSCF 0,1796 Natural Gas m3 0,0063 LPG Ton 8,5246 Crude Oil Condensat Barrel 0,9545 Crude Oil Barrel 1,0000 Oil Product Avgas KiloLiter 5,5530 Avtur KiloLiter 5,8907 Gasoline KiloLiter 5,8275 Kerosene KiloLiter 5,9274 Automotive Diesel Oil KiloLiter 6,4871 Industrial Diesel Oil KiloLiter 6,6078 Fuel Oil KiloLiter 6,9612 Geothermal MWh 1,5937 Hydropower MWh 1,5937 Electricity Biodiesel Bioetanol Nabati Oil

MWh Metric Ton

liter liter

0,6130 7.3693 0.0041 0.0062

Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, except *) are estimation.

1 Introduction

1.1 Task

The Regional Energy Outlook of Sumatera Utara 2005 - 2025 is one of a series of activities CAREPI "Contributing to poverty Alleviation through Regional Energy Planning in Indonesia" (Alleviate poverty through Regional Energy Policy in Indonesia) and is a result of the collaboration between the Institute of Research, Community Service / Service to the Society University of Sumatera Utara (USU LP3M) with the Department of Mines and Energy (Distamben) of Sumatera Utara Province, ITB Keenergian Policy Center and the Energy research Center of Netherlands, Senter Novem-Netherlands and the European Union. This book contains the estimated demand and supply of energy in Sumatera Utara from 2005 until the year 2025 with the reference data 2005. The book is expected to be a reference for the observer and student of energy issues and the general public who need data and information on reporting requirements and supply the energy needs in Sumatera Utara Province until the year 2025.

1.2 Objectives

The population of Sumatera Utara amounts to 12,326,678 of which 16.5% is lives below the poverty line. The final energy consumption of 25.5 million BOE is dominated by oil products (80%), especially premium and diesel oil. Most are used for transportation. Electricity took about 11%, natural gas and biomass (mainly firewood) each 4 to 5%. In 2006, the Government of Indonesia issued Presidential Decree Presidential Regulation No. 5 of 2006 on National Energy Policy. Realization of the national energy mix in accordance with the Per-Pres No. 5 in 2006, leads to the following percentage of each energy are: • Oil Crude is less than 20%. • Natural gas to more than 30%. • Coal to more than 33%. • Plant-based biofuels more than 5%. • Geothermal becomes more than 5%. • Biomass, Nuclear, Micro hydro, Solar, and Wind Energy to be more 5%. • Coal gasification to more than 2%. With the national energy goals mentioned above, it should be the policy achieve them through the preparation of documents like the Regional Energy Outlook of Sumatera Utara province from 2005 - 2025.

1.3 Scope and Boundary

The purpose of formulating the Regional Energy Outlook of Sumatera Utara 2005 - 2025 is giving in-side on planning of energy supply and demand in Sumatera Utara until the year 2025 based on the Regional Energy Policy (KED) to support the National Energy Policy (KEN). Scope of the study of Regional Energy Outlook of Sumatera Utara, are: a. The base year for data compilation of energy supply and demand based on 2005 data b. Scenarios used consisted of the National Energy Policy Scenarios (KEN) and the Regional Energy

Policy Scenarios (KED) c. For the Regional Energy Policy scenario, the assumptions are based on considering the real conditions

of the existing energy potential in Sumatera Utara. d. Data used is derived from: BPS, PT. Pertamina, PT. PLN (Persero) Wilayah Sumatera Utara, PT PLN

(Persero) Plant Northern Sumatera, PT. Gas PN, PT KAI, Bappeda SU, Distamben, Dishub, etc..

2 General information

2.1 Geographic

The Sumatera Utara Province is located at 1°- 4° latitude and 98°– 100° longitude. Total land area of Su-matera Utara Province is 71,680 km2. It borders Aceh province on the northwest and Riau and West Su-matera provinces on the southeast. The map of Sumatera Utara Province is shown in Figure 2.1. The province contains a broad, low plain along the Strait of Malacca coast; in the northeast; the provincial capital, Medan, is located here. In the south and west, the land rises to the mountain range that runs the length of Sumatera; the mountains here are dominated by Lake Toba. Several large islands in the Indian Ocean off the southwest coast of Sumatera are part of Sumatera Utara, most notably Nias, Tanah Bala, Tanah Masa, and Pini.

Figure 2.1 Map of Sumatera Utara Province Source: Figure in Sumatera Utara at 2006

2.2 Government

In 2005, Sumatera Utara Province was divided into 18 regencies (kabupaten) and 7 cities (kota); 328 sub-districts (kecamatan); 5,086 villages (desa) and 382 villages in city regions (kelurahan). The regen-cies/cities and its capitals are listed in Table 2.1.

Table 2.1 Regencies/Cities in Sumatera Utara Province

No. Regency (R)/City (C) Capital

1 Tapanuli Tengah (R) Sibolga 2 Tapanuli Utara (R) Tarutung 3 Tapanuli Selatan (R) Padang Sidempuan 4 Nias (R) Gunungsitoli 5 Langkat (R) Stabat 6 Karo (R) Kabanjahe 7 Deli Serdang (R) Lubukpakam 8 Simalungun (R) Pematangsiantar 9 Asahan (R) Kisaran 10 Labuhan Batu (R) Rantauprapat 11 Dairi (R) Sidikalang 12 Toba Samosir (R) Balige 13 Mandailing Natal (R) Penyabungan 14 Nias Selatan (R) Teluk Dalam 15 Pakpak Bharat (R) Salak 16 Humbang Hasundutan (R) Dolok Sanggul 17 Samosir (R) Panguruan 18 Serdang Bedagai (R) Sei Rampah 19 Medan (C) - 20 Pematangsiantar (C) - 21 Sibolga (C) - 22 Tanjung Balai (C) - 23 Binjai (C) - 24 Tebing Tinggi (C) - 25 Padang Sidempuan (C) -

Source: BPS of Sumatera Utara Province, 2007

In 2008, following administrative and political evolutions, there are three new regencies in Sumatera Utara Province, ie. Regency of Batu Bara (the capital is Lima Puluh), Regency of Padang Lawas Utara (the capi-tal is Gunung Tua), and Regency of Padang Lawas (the capital is Sibuhuan).

2.3 Population

Total population of Sumatera Utara Province in 2005 was 12,326,678 persons; the number of house-hold being 2,717,020 with the average household size of 4.54 persons per household. The most populated city in Sumatera Utara is Medan, in which the population in 2005 was 2,036,185 persons or 16.5% of total province. Medan is also the fourth largest city in Indonesia. The average density in this province was 172 persons/km2. The population growth of this province during 2000 – 2005 was 1.35% per year. In Table 2.2, population and density of each regency/city of Sumatera Utara Province in 2005 are given.

Table 2.2 Population of Sumatera Utara Province in 2005

No Regency/City Population (persons)

Number of Households

Area [km2]

Density [person/km2]

Regency 1 Nias 441,807 81,918 3,495.39 1262 Mandailing Natal 386,150 86,346 6,618.79 583 Tapanuli Selatan 626,702 138,030 12,138.30 524 Tapanuli Tengah 283,035 59,558 2,188.00 1295 Tapanuli Utara 256,201 56,437 3,726.52 696 Toba Samosir 158,677 39,792 2,474.40 647 Labuhan Batu 951,773 207,119 9,223.18 1038 Asahan 1,024,369 224,246 4,580.75 2249 Simalungun 826,101 196,071 4,386.60 18810 Dairi 261,287 58,718 1,927.80 13611 Karo 316,207 83,344 2,127.29 14912 Deli Serdang 1,569,638 348,728 2,407.96 65213 Langkat 970,433 222,346 6,263.30 15514 Nias Selatan 288,233 53,249 1,825.20 15815 Humbang Hasundutan 152,997 33,702 2,335.33 6616 Pakpak Bharat 34,542 7,763 1,218.30 2817 Samosir 131,073 28,463 2,069.05 6318 Serdang Bedagai 588,176 133,431 1,989.98 296 City

19 Sibolga 88,717 18,731 10.77 8,23720 Tanjung Balai 152,814 31,390 60.52 2,52521 Pematang Siantar 230,487 51,599 79.99 2,88122 Tebing Tinggi 135,671 30,629 37.99 3,57123 Medan 2,036,185 422,922 265.10 7,68124 Binjai 237,904 52,000 90.33 2,63425 Padang Sidempuan 177,499 50,488 140.00 1,268 Total Province 12,326,678 2,717,020 71,680.84 172Source: BPS of Sumatera Utara Province, 2005

2.4 Macroeconomic Condition

The Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Sumatera Utara Province in 2005 was Rp 87,897.8 billion (around USD 8.3 billion), and GRDP per capita was Rp 7,33 million Rpa (around USD 756) per person per year see Tabel 2.3. There are three sectors that have the largest contribution in this province, namely agriculture, manufacturing industry, and commercial sector. These three sectors contributed 67% to the total GRDP. The GRDP per sector/activity of Sumatera Utara Province in 2000 – 2005 is shown in Ta-ble 2.4.

Table 2.3 GRDP by Regency/City in 2005

No Regency/City GRDP

(Billion Rp)GRDP/Capita

(millionRp/cap/yr)

Regency

1 Nias 1,552.60 3.51

2 Mandailing Natal 1,492.09 3.86

3 Tapanuli Selatan 2,584.57 4.12

4 Tapanuli Tengah 889.37 3.14

5 Tapanuli Utara 1,232.29 4.81

6 Toba Samosir 1,354.44 8.54

7 Labuhan Batu 8,533.06 8.97

8 Asahan 9,768.12 9.54

9 Simalungun 4,370.08 5.29

10 Dairi 1,634.14 6.25

11 Karo 2,600.53 8.22

12 Deli Serdang 10,785.18 6.87

13 Langkat 5,724.01 5.90

14 Nias Selatan 1,000.49 3.47

15 Humbang Hasundutan 763.54 4.99

16 Pakpak Barat 126.68 3.67

17 Samosir 843.74 6.44

18 Serdang Bedagai 3,379.77 5.75

City

19 Sibolga 563.74 6.35

20 Tanjung Balai 1,142.13 7.47

21 Pematang Siantar 1,649.97 7.16

22 Tebing Tinggi 876.39 6.46

23 Medan 25,271.63 12.41

24 Binjai 1,540.91 6.48

25 Padang Sidempuan 702.10 3.96

Sumatera Utara 87,789,866 7.33 Source: BPS of Sumatera Utara Province, 2005. Note : GRDP by BPS has a dicrepancy with the GRDP Regency/City, and the GRDP Province is a same total with GRDP sector/activity of Sumatera Utara Province.

Table 2.4 GRDP sector/activity of Sumatera Utara Province in 2001 – 2005

GRDP (Constant 2005 Million Rp) No Sector

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 Agriculture 19,683,516 20,182,424 20,689,486 21,465,423 22,191,305 2 Mining 1,151,889 1,146,165 1,130,654 1,009,921 1,074,751 3 Manufacture Industry 17,618,404 18,504,467 19,298,237 20,231,995 21,197,443 4 Utility 585,702 626,848 660,798 681,199 716,251 5 Construction 4,008,850 4,278,720 4,536,031 4,883,081 5,515,982 6 Commercial Service 13,292,558 13,951,004 14,353,390 15,230,316 15,984,925 7 Transportation 4,767,714 5,346,583 5,905,555 6,702,179 7,379,922 8 Financial Service 4,210,419 4,445,815 4,749,771 5,077,295 5,440,497 9 Other Services 6,509,307 6,707,117 7,481,688 7,942,505 8,288,790

Total 71,908,359 75,189,141 78,805,609 83,328,949 87,789,866 Source: BPS of Sumatera Utara Province, 2005

Average GRDP growth during 2000 – 2005 was 4.76% per year, and average inflation in the same period was 11.56% (Tabel 2.5). But this inflation was not a normal inflation. This inflation was mainly caused by the increase of domestic oil fuel price, especially in 2005 when the domestic oil fuel price increased by around 150%.

Table 2.5 GRDP Growth and Inflation of Sumatera Utara Province in 2000 – 2005

No 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

1 GRDP Growth (%) 3.72 4.07 4.81 5.74 5.48 2 Inflation (%) 14.79 9.59 4.23 6.80 22.41

Source: BPS of Sumatera Utara Province, 2005 To support National Energy Policy (KEN) several steps will be taken as follows : • Conversion Kerosene to LPG. • Accelerated the construction of 10.000 MW steam power plant. • Accelereted the infrastructure construction gas pipe line at Sumatera Utara. • Energy price policy to support the enegy conversion dan diversification.

2.5 Energy Issues Sumatera Utara System-Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam is electric power systems including generation of integration between systems. transmission and distribution which serve the areas of Sumatera Utara and Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam. The system is also Sumbagut interconnected with other electric power systems, ie 275 kV System PT Inalum. System and Southern Sumatera and Central forming forming Sumatera Interconnection System. Sumatera Utara system with Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam united through 150 KV SUTT Pangkalan Brandan - Langsa. Whereas with Sumbagselteng system connected through 150 kV circuit Rantau Prapat - Kota Pinang - Bagan Batu - Duri-constraints are due to small-signal stability system is still operated isolated. The distance between GI Kota Pinang and Bagan Batu is 90 km. As for interconnection with the 275 kV system connected through Inalum PT 2x40 MVA IBT GI Kuala Tanjung, realize operating export-import transfer of energy between PLN-Inalum scheme-zero net balance (energy-swap). Power capacity installed in the system is 1879.8 MW (with the addition of new generating Labuhan Angin power plant Unit 1 and 2). while the power supply is capable of 1233.2 MW (with Inalum transfer at 45 MW peak load time). The demand at peak load reached 1353 MW. Derating factor is relatively large between installed capacity operating units with the ability, more or less correlated with the age of generators installed. The age distribution is 25% of 21-30 years, 61% of 11-20 year and 14% of 0 -10 years(of the installed power). Sumatera Utara - Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam system has 39 sub station which spread from the GI of Banda Aceh to the GI Kota Pinang. with a total installed transformer capacity of 2229 MVA. The power transformer capacity in the GI Kota Pinang is 30 MVA, capacity of power transformers in the GI Bagan Batu is 10 MVA and capacity of power transformers in the GI Duri of2x30 MVA.

Power shortages are experienced by the Sumatera Utara with Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam system from limitations due to the existing plants or construction delays. New generation in Sumatera Utara province have the potential reserves are abundant sources of energy: water power, geothermal and coal. • In order to support the national energy policy, some of the steps undertaken include: • Program conversion Kerosene to LPG • Accelerating the development policy program 10,000 MW power plant • Accelerating the development of gas pipe network infrastructure in North Sumatera • Development of infrastructure providers and distribution for LPG. • Pricing policy to encourage the implementation of energy conservation and energy diversification. • Policy development of energy infrastructure to ensure the provision of energy, particularly energy other

than petroleum.

3 Current Energy Situation

3.1 Energy Consumption

Final Energy The final energy consumption of 25.5 million BOE is dominated by oil products (80%) which on its

turn are dominated by gasoline and Automotive Diesel Oil (ADO). These are mainly used in transport (Figure 3.1 and 3.2). Electricity takes about 11% and Natural gas and Biomass (mainly wood) take each about 4 - 5%. Solid fuels and renewable are practically absent.

Figure 3.1 Final Energy in Sumatera Utara 2005

Figure 3.2 Final Energy Consumption in Sumatera Utara 2005

Oil products are consumed mostly in the transport sector, but also households and industry show a considerable use. The commercial and other sector consume each about 1.5 million BOE. Electricity is mainly used in households, followed by industry and commercial. Natural gas is almost exclusively used in industry, there is little use in households and commercial, and wood is only used in households (Figure 3.3).

Figure 3.3 Final Energy in Sumatera Utara 2005

3.2 Energy Supply

3.2.1 Energy supply The highest primary supply is Renewable (Biodiesel plant) about 673,78 thousand BOE, (Sumatera

Utara has an important role in the development of oil palm (1,023,350 ha) with its contribution in area equal to 15.7%, the contribution of crude palm oil (CPO) is 21.3%. With private plantation amounting to 377,336.70 ha, community plantation equal to 367,741.02 ha and 278,272.28 ha being the property of PT. Perkebunan Nusantara. In producing biodiesel, at the beginning PT. Pamina Adolina’s capacity was 8 ton/day, and is now already scaled up to 12 ton/day and the other company produces 22 ton/day biodiesel. Currently they use the biodiesel for their own energy demand; those are for their palm oil mill machine and transportation), followed by electricity (3.8 million BOE) supply and Natural gas (3.77 million BOE) at 2005 (Figure 3.4).

Figure 3.4 Transformation Energy in Sumatera Utara 2005

3.2.2 Electricity Power plants are producing 3,888.7 thousand BOE electricity with production from combined cycle power plants (PLTGU) (74.4 % , 2,892.99 thousand BOE), followed by Steam power plant (PLTU) (16.7% - 650.3 thousand BOE). The contribution of Diesel power plant (PLTD) and Mini hydro (PLTA and PLTMH at remote areas; PLTMH Batang Gadis I & II, PLTMH Tonduhan I & II, PLTMH Kombih I & II, PLTMH Aek Raisan I & II, PLTMH Aek Silang, PLTMH Aek Sibundong ) to supply electricity is still small, the quantities are 1.5% (59.15 thousand BOE) and 3.4% (128.12 thousand BOE) see Figure 3.5.

Figure 3.5 Power Plant Transformations in Sumatera Utara 2005

The total demand of electricity in 2005 is 2,827 thousand BOE. The highest percentage of demand electricity is found in Household (1,219 thousand BOE or 43.1%) and is followed by industry (35.4%) and commercial sectors is 21.4% (Figure 3.6).

Figure 3.6 Electricity demand in Sumatera Utara 2005

From the Figures 3.5 and 3.6, it can be seen that the amount of electricity produced by power plants is 3,888.7 thousand BOE in 2005 and meanwhile the demand of electricity by consumer (household, commercial and industry) reach an amount 2,827 thousand BOE in 2005, clearly the supply is still enough ( yes, at the moment there are no black out). The power shortages in Sumatera Utara is start at 2008.

4 Energy Scenarios

4.1 Energy policies

Energy policy in Indonesia is divided into 2 based on the level of government. The first policy is called the National Energy Policy (KEN) established by the central government and targets to be achieved on the whole area (National). The 2nd is the Regional Energy Policy (KED) set by the local government for each area, referring to the KEN and conditions of the energy potential in the area of their own region.

4.1.1 National Energy Policy (KEN) Policy on the management and utilization of energy in Indonesia is contained in the National Energy

Policy document 2003 - 2020 (KEN), National Energy Management Blueprint 2005 to 2025 (PEN), and Presidential Regulation No. 5 Year 2006 on National Energy Policy (Perpres KEN). KEN regulation basically confirmed and PEN KEN document issued by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Based on KEN regulation, the national energy policy objective is to direct the efforts in creating security of energy supply in the country (Article 2 paragraph 1). The legal basis of the energy of: 1. Law Number22 Year 1999 on Regional Government(State Gazette Year 1999 Number 60, Additional

State Gazette Number 3952); 2. Law Number 22 Year 2001 concerning Oil and Natural Gas

In an effort to create business activities of Oil and Gas is an independent, reliable, transparent, competi-tive, efficient, and knowledgeable environmental conservation and encourage the development of na-tional potential and determined the role of Law Number 22 Year 2001 on Oil and Gas. Downstream Oil and Gas Business Activities in the core business activities Processing, Transportation, Storage, and / or Commerce and conducted through the mechanism of fair competition, healthy, and transparent. But the Government remains obliged to ensure the availability and smooth distribution of fuel which is a vital commodity and dominate the life of the people throught the Unitary Republic of Indonesia.

3. Law No. 32 Year 2004 on Regional Autonomy. 4. Law – Law No. 30 of 2007 on Energy 5. Law Number 10 Government Regulation of 1989 on Provision of Electricity and Energy Utilization

(State Gazette Year 1989 Number 24, Additional State Gazette Number 3394); 6. Government Regulation Number 25 Year 2000 on the Authority of Provinces as Autonomous Regions

(Statute Book Year 2000 Number 54, Additional State Gazette Nomor 3952); 7. In implementing the responsibility for setting and monitoring of business activities and distribution of

fuel supply and gas transportation business in the pipeline, the Government has established an inde-pendent body of Downstream Regulatory Body Oil and Natural Gas (Government Regulation no. 67 of 2002 and the Presidential Decree. 86 of 2002).

8. Government Regulation No. 36 of 2004 on Business Activities Downstream Oil and Gas; 9. Government Regulation No. 3 Year 2005 regarding amendments to the Regulation No. 10 Year 1989 on

the Provision and Electricity, that to implement regional autonomy in the field of Electrical Power to give local governments a role in electricity supply. To ensure the availability of primary energy to sup-ply electricity for the public interest, priority use of local energy resources with priority obligations of renewable energy sources utilization;

10. Presidential Regulation No. 5 of 2006 on National Energy Policy; 11. Presidential Instruction No. 1 Year 2005 on the Provision and Use of Bio Fuels (Biofuels) as Other

Fuel; 12. ESDM No candy. 0048 of 2005 on Standards and Quality (Specification) and Fuel Control, Fuel Gas,

Other Fuels, LPG, LNG and Processing Results of Marketed in the Interior;

13. Regulation of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 0007 of 2005 on Requirements and Guidelines for the Implementation of Business Licenses Business Activity Downstream Oil and Gas;

14. Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 0954 K/30/MEM/2004 of the National Electricity General Plan;

15. Decision of the Director General of Oil and Natural Gas No. 3675 K/24/DJM/2006 dated March 17, 2006 about the specification of fuel types SOLAR;

16. Decision of the Director General of Oil and Natural Gas No. 3674 K/24/DJM/2006 dated March 17, 2006 about the fuel specifications of Gasoline.

4.1.2 Regional Energy Policy (KED) Regional Energy Policy (KED) specified by local governments, refers to the KEN and includes conditions of the existing energy potential in the area of their own region. 1. Guarantee the availability and smooth distribution of fuel throughout the NKRI; 2. National Fuel Reserve policy; 3. Mechanisms and / or formulation of the price of a particular fuel in the days before the price mechanism

can be submitted at a fair business competition; 4. Availability and distribution of certain types of fuel; 5. The minimum capacity of storage facilities that must be realized by Enterprises; 6. Administrative sanctions and / or fines for enterprises that do not provide National fuel reserves in times

of need; 7. Imposing sanctions for violations of business license; 8. Policies related to the determination of Commerce Region specific fuel types; 9. Policy phasing market opening; 10. Opening or closing the import or export of fuel based on technical and economic considerations; 11. Petroleum processing policies relating to the location, type and amount of fuel produced; 12. Incentives for fuel distribution in the Remote Area; 13. Fuel storage policy associated with the location, type and amount.

4.2 Scenario assumptions and parameters

4.2.1 Scenario assumptions • Increased electrification ratio to 100% in Year 2020 • Conversion from kerosene to LPG, is concluded in the year 2011 for urban and for rural in 2012. • Achieving an energy elasticity less than one in 2025. • Start to use renewable energy such as bio-diesel and bio-ethanol to support the mix of energy targets in

accordance with the Per-pressed No. 5 Year 2006. • Renewable energy such as bio-diesel and bio-ethanol begin to be used and the percentage of usage can

be seen in Table 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3

Table 4.1 The Percentage of Phase Target Using Biodiesel

Sector 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025

Transportation PSO 1% 2.5% 5% 10% 20%

Transportation Non PSO 1% 3% 7% 10% 20%

Industry and Commercial 2.5% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Power Plant 0.25% 1% 10% 15% 20%

Source: PerMen 32/2008 Description: percentage of sales (commercial enterprises) or usage (direct user) PSO : public service obligation

Table 4.2 The Percentage of Phase Target Using Bioetanol

Sektor 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025

Transportation PSO 1% 3% 5% 10% 15% Transportation Non PSO 5% 7% 10% 12% 15% Industry and Commercial 5% 7% 10% 12% 15% Source: PerMen 32/2008 Description: percentage of sales (commercial enterprises) or usage (direct user) PSO : public service obligation

Table 4.3 The Percentage of Phase Target Using Nabati Oil

Sektor 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025

Industry 0% 1% 3% 5% 10% Sea Transportation 0% 1% 3% 5% 10% Power Plant 0.25% 1% 5% 7% 10% Source: PerMen 32/2008 Description: percentage of sales (commercial enterprises) or usage (direct user)

4.2.2 Scenario parameters National energy policy a. Population Growth

Population growth in the year 2005 amounted to 1.35% per year. It is estimated that the population growth rate will continue to decline in coming years. In this model. projections of population growth can be seen in Table 4.4

Table 4.4 Population Growth of Sumatera Utara Province

2010 2015 2020 2025

Population Growth/year 1.12% 1.05% 1.0% 0.98% Source: RJP 2005 - 2025 Prop.SU b. GRDP Growth

GRDP growth in 2005 is actual data. whereas for the years 2006 - 2025 refers to GRDP growth projec-tions contained in the Long Term Plan of North Sumatera province, where GDP is projected as shown in Table 4.5

Tabel 4.5. GRDP Growth of Sumatera Utara Province

2006 2011 2016 2021

GRDP growth/year 6% 6.8% 7.2% 8.2% Source: RJP 2005 - 2025 Prop.SU

c. GRDP contribution of Sumatera Utara Province come from sectors: agriculture, industry, trade and oth-ers as shown in Table 4.6.

Table 4.6. Contribution to GRDP sector

Sektor Periode

Agriculture [%]

Industry Trade [%]

Others [%]

2006-2011 28.5 25.25 17.5 28.75 2011-2016 28 25.6 18.8 27.6 2016-2021 27.5 26.2 18.5 27 2021-2025 27 26.7 19.4 26.9 Source: RJP 2005 - 2025 Prop.SU d. Electrification ratio in 2020 become 100%. e. Conversion from Kerosene to LPG for Household is 2012. f. Conversion of Kerosene to LPG ands in 2015 for the Commercial, Industrial and Others. Regional Energy Scenarios (KED) a. Population Growth

Population growth is taken as in the KEN scenario b. GRDP Growth

Regional GDP growth is taken as in the KEN scenario. c. GRDP is still dominated by agriculture, industry, trade and other equal to the KEN scenario. d. Electrification ratio in 2020 reaches 100%. e. Conversion from Kerosene to LPG and the year 2011 for the Urban household, 2012 for Rural f. Conversion from Kerosene to LPG ends in 2015 for the Commercial, Industrial and Other. g. Renewable energy such as bio-diesel, bio-ethanol and vegetable oil is used according to the projected

percentage of use until the year 2025 equal to the KEN scenario.

4.3 Energy scenario outcomes

Results of North Sumatera energy projections using the LEAP (Long-range Alternatives Planning Sys-tem) is divided into 2 parts namely demand and supply sides, the result can be seen as follows:

4.3.1 Demand side The amount of energy needs that people want in the future, can be estimated using the approximate

model of energy demand, and is adjusted to the conditions to be achieved by a regional or depending on the vision and mission to be achieved by a region.

Energy demand is calculated based on the activity and the amount of energy consumption per activ-

ity (the intensity of energy consumption). The level of economy and population is very influential on the energy consumption activities. High economic growth rate will cause higher energy consumption by higher activity levels, therefore the increasing level of the economy will need the support of incresed energy sup-ply.

Energy demand in the future is projected by using a software model LEAP (Long-range Energy Al-

ternatives Planning System). LEAP model is used as the main model and a projected electricity demand by RUPTL and RUKD model. RUPTL and RUKD is used as reference data for the sectors of electricity de-mand for household, industry and commercial. Simulation base year is the year 2005 with a simulation pe-riod of 20 years.

National Energy Policy (KEN) a). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER SECTOR

Energy demand is strongly influenced by economic variables, such as Gross Regional Domestic Prod-uct (GRDP) which can describe the economic activity in an area. If a regional economic growth becomes higher, the energy demand is also high. while income per capita could reflect a local resident income. The higher the per capita income of a region is the higher mean level of the regional economy, so the ability of communities to meet the energy need will increase.

Other variables also affect the energy demand of the population and energy prices. The population is

reflected in the number of existing households in the area, while energy prices are often influenced by gov-ernment policy. In theory, energy prices should also reflect the avaibility or scarcity in the market.

Final energy demand by sector (Figure 4.1) consists of household sector, commercial sector, transport

sector, industrial sector and other sectors, where the total energy consumption of 98.542 million BOE in 2025. Transportation is the largest energy using sector in 2025 with 40.775 million BOE.

The second largest energy consumption is for the Industrial Sector in 2025 of 24,823.7 thousand BOE.

Meanwhile, energy consumption is the smallest for Other Sectors (Agriculture, Construction and Mining) in the year 2025 with 4.423 million BOE.

Figure 4.1 Final Energy Demand per sector 2005 - 2025

b). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER TYPE In the future, final energy demand is estimated to have increased quite significantly. Greatest demand on fuel is for oil fuels, in 2015 estimated energy demand is 37,772 thousand BOE and for 2025 become 65,189.6 thousand BOE. Furthermore the final energy demand for electricity in 2015 was estimated at 7,357.83 thousand BOE and the year 2025 is estimated to increase to 19,910.91 thousand BOE. The increase used of gasoline in 2015 for 13,436.95 thousand BOE become 22,386.07 thousand BOE in 2025.

Demand for bioethanol and biodiesel respectively in 2015 is 808.47 thousand BOE and 1,080.13 thou-

sand BOE, in 2025 is 2,157.64 thousand BOE and 5,243.62 thousand BOE respectively. A decline in the use of wood and charcoal respectively, 780.5 thousand BOE and 51.77 thousand BOE in 2015 become 540

thousand BOE and 40.89 thousand BOE in 2025, as well as for LPG in 2015 was estimated at 7,764.25 thousand BOE and by 2025 is estimated at 12,621.8 thousand BOE, it can be seen at Figure 4.2.

Figure 4.2 Final Energy Demand per energy type 2005 - 2025

Regional Energy Policy (KED)

a). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER SECTOR

Final energy demand by sector (Figure 4.3) consists of household sector, commercial sector, transport sector, industrial sector and others sectors where the total energy consumption for 105.446 million BOE (year 2005 untill year 2025). Transportation sector is the largest energy user in 2025 with 40.775 million BOE.

The second largest energy consumption is for the Industrial Sector in 2008 of 7,811.9 thousand BOE

increased to 35,342.6 thousand BOE in 2025.

Meanwhile, energy consumption is the smallest Others sectors (Agriculture, Construction and Mining) in the year 2008 of 1,784.45 thousand BOE increase to 4,423.23 thousand BOE in 2025.

Figure 4.3 Final Energy Demand per sector 2005 - 2025

b). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER TYPE In the future, final energy demand is estimated to have increased quite significantly. Greatest demand on fuel oil, in 2015 estimated fuel demand for 51,204.6 thousand BOE and in 2025 become 105,446.8 thou-sand BOE. Furthermore the final energy demand for electricity in 2015 was estimated at 8,447.44 thousand BOE and for the year 2025 it is estimated to increase to 27,125.66 thousand BOE. Use of gasoline in 2015 was 13,436.95 thousand BOE increasing to 22,386.07 thousand BOE in 2025.

Kerosene demand in 2008 of 4,904.43 thousand BOE decreased to 0.48 thousand BOE in 2015 and in-

creased again to 0.7 thousand BOE in 2025 , it is because there still exists the use of kerosene at a price that is not subsidized. While demand for bioethanol and biodiesel respectively in 2015 is estimated at 808.47 thousand BOE and 1,080.13 thousand BOE and in 2025 respectively estimated to be of 2,157.64 thousand BOE and 5,243.62 thousand BOE. A decline in the use of wood and charcoal respectively 780.5 thousand BOE and 51.77 thousand BOE in 2015 and become 539.00 thousand BOE and 40.89 thousand BOE in 2025, as well as for LPG in 2015 was estimated at 7,765.114 thousand BOE and at 2025 will be estimated 12,321.99 thousand BOE, it can be seen at Figure 4.4.

Figure 4.4 Final Energy Demand per type 2005 - 2025

4.3.2 SUPPLY SIDE National Energy Policy (KEN) a). DOMESTIC ENERGY SUPPLY PER SECTOR

In the year 2006 Oil Plant in Pkl. Brandan no longer in operation so that fuel oil becomes imported from other regions.

Electricity production in 2015 of 8,954.6 thousand BOE increasing to 12,967.5 thousand BOE by 2025, where the electricity demand in 2025 is 19,910.91 thousand BOE, hence the electricity supply has deficit to serve and results in shortage of electricity. (Note : between the years 2012 and 2015 the electricity supply meet the energy demand)

Wood and charcoal production are in 2015 respectively 837.45 thousand BOE and 51.77 thousand

BOE, and decrease respectively to 40.89 thousand BOE and 584.96 thousand BOE, this is because the use of LPG is more widespread, can be seen at Figure 4.5.

Natural gas supply in 2005 is 3,767.3 thousand BOE and decreases to 2,314.2 thousand BOE caused

by the lack of new exploitation.

Figure 4.5 Domestic Energy supply per sector 2005 - 2025

b). DOMESTIC ENERGY SUPPLY PER TYPE With no oil refineries production in Pkl. Brandan from 2006, all refinery products such as Kerosene,

FO and ADO are imported from outside. Electricity production in 2015 of 16,789.8 thousand BOE in-creased to 33,355.8 thousand BOE at year 2025 . A decline in the use of wood and charcoal respectively 837.45 thousand BOE and 51.77 thousand BOE in 2015 become 584.96 thousand BOE and 40.89 thousand BOE in the year 2025.

LPG was imported from outside the area of Sumatera Utara, domestic biodiesel production in 2015

was 1,975.9 thousand BOE going up to 7,348.18 thousand BOE by 2025, as can seen at Figure 4.6

Figure 4.6 Domestic Energy supply per type 2005 - 2025

Regional Energy Policy (KED)

a). DOMESTIC ENERGY SUPPLY PER SECTOR In the year 2006 Oil Plant in Pkl. Brandan was no longer in operation so that fuel oil becomes im-

ported from other regions. Electricity production in 2015 was 10,258.0 thousand BOE increasing to 13,088.3 thousand BOE in 2025 and the electricity demand in 2025 is 27,125.7 thousand BOE, can be seen that the electricity supply deficit to serve the load demand.

Wood and charcoal production in 2015 are respectively 837.45 thousand BOE and 51.77 thousand

BOE and decrease respectively 40.89 thousand BOE and 584.96 thousand BOE, it is because the use of LPG is more widespread, as can be seen at Figure 4.7.

Figure 4.7 Domestic Energy supply per sector 2005 - 2025

b). DOMESTIC ENERGY SUPPLY PER TYPE With no oil refineries production in Pkl. Brandan from 2006, all refinery products such as Kerosene,

FO and ADO are imported from outside. Electricity production in 2015 of 19,182.9 thousand BOE in-creased to 35,324.3 thousand BOE in 2025. A decline in the use of wood and charcoal respectively 837.45 thousand BOE and 51.77 thousand BOE in 2015 to 584.96 thousand BOE and 40.89 thousand BOE in the year 2025, can be seen at Figure 4.8

From Figure 4.8, LPG was imported from outside the area of Sumatera Utara, biodiesel production in 2015 of 1,080.13 thousand BOE to 5,243.62 thousand BOE in 2025.

Figure 4.8 Domestic Energy supply per type 2005 - 2025

4.3.3 Comparison KEN and KED results Electrical energy demand for KEN scenario based on RUPTL of PT PLN (Persero) and for KED scenario based on RUKD of Sumatera Utara province. HOUSEHOLD SECTOR

In this study, the final energy demand sector is calculated based on the Household group of rural households and urban household groups divided into four categories namely category A (Under Poverty Line), category B (1.5 x Under Poverty Line), category C (Middle Income ) and category D (20% Highest Income).

The household sector is a large energy user. Energy consumption used for cooking, lighting and other

household appliances.

2011 is used as comparison year because that is the moment the conversion kerosene to LPG ends (zero kerosene).

KEN scenario for energy consumption in the household Sector (Figure 4.9) in 2011 is 6.925 thousand

BOE or 53.5% of total final energy consumption and increased to 12,952.75 thousand BOE in 2025. En-ergy consumption household sector consisted of rural household 2,979.13 thousand BOE and urban house-hold 3,945.87 thousand BOE in 2011 and increased respectively to 2,987.32 thousand BOE and 9,965.43 thousand BOE in 2025.

KED scenario for energy consumption in the household sector in 2011 of 6,864.36 thousand BOE or

53.6% of total final energy consumption and increased to 12,808.82 thousand BOE in 2025. Energy con-sumption household sector in 2011 consisted of rural households 2,960.5 thousand BOE and for urban households of 3,903.86 thousand BOE, and increased respectively to 2,962.23 thousand BOE and 9,846.593 thousand BOE in 2025, as can be seen at Figure 4.10.

Figure 4.9 Final Energy Demand per Household per sector 2005 - 2025

Figure 4.10 Final Energy Demand per Household per sector 2005 - 2025

For KEN scenario (Figure 4.11), electrical energy consumption in Households sector is 1,501.69 thou-sand BOE in 2011 and increased to 5,901.17 thousand BOE in 2025 where the use of electric energy still dominate, people are still using non-commercial energy, especially wood for 885.39 thousand BOE or 6.8% in 2011. Kerosene is used in the household sector for an amount of 813.76 thousand BOE or 6.3% of the total energy consumption in 2011, but with the conversion of kerosene to LPG use of kerosene to zero by 2012 and energy consumption of LPG to 2,445.18 thousand BOE in 2012 and increased to 3,899.1 thousand BOE in 2025.

For KED scenario, energy consumption household sector still uses firewood for 885.4 thousand BOE

in 2011 and decreased to 539.99 thousand BOE in 2025. LPG consumption increased from 1,641.9 thou-sand BOE in 2011 because at that time the subsidized kerosene was discontinued, and until 2025 the use of LPG to 3,909.36 thousand BOE, as can be seen at Figure 4.12.

Figure 4.11 Final Energy Demand per Household per type 2005 - 2025

Figure 4.12 Final Energy Demand per Household per type 2005 - 2025

Household/URBAN sector

a). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER SECTOR For KEN scenario (Figure 4.13) the largest use of energy is category C (midle income) of 2,132.3

thousand BOE in 2011 and increased to 5,586.98 thousand BOE in 2025, this is due to the largest popula-tion and high purchasing energy, while the lowest energy consumption are category A (under poverty line) for 145.7 thousand BOE in 2011 and increased to 238.44 thousand BOE in 2025

For KED scenario the largest use of energy is category C (Midle income) 2,112.16 thousand BOE in 2011 and increased to 5,525.19 thousand BOE by 2025, while the lowest energy consumption are category A (under poverty line) at 144.5 thousand BOE in 2011 and increased slightly high at 235.88 thousand BOE in 2025.

Energy consumption for KEN scenario greater than the energy consumption due conversion kerosene

to LPG at KED scenario kerosene to KEN scenario in 2012, while for KED scenario the conversion in 2011, as can be seen at Figure 4.14

Figure 4.13 Final Energy Demand per Household/Rural per sector 2005 - 2025


b). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER TYPE For KEN scenario (Figure 4.15), the energy consumption of LPG in the household urban sector is

2,445.18 thousand BOE in 2012 and become 3,899.1 thousand BOE in 2025, while the kerosene reduces to zero by 2012. Non-commercial energy consumption of wood and charcoal in households in 2011, each for 57.16 thousand BOE and 5.31 thousand BOE increasing to 69.13 thousand BOE and 7.68 thousand BOE in 2025, this happens because there are many people in urban areas far from the provincial towns for who it is difficult to get of LPG for cooking.

In urban households use natural gas increased from 37.36 thousand BOE in 2011 to 88.34 thousand BOE by 2025 and natural gas energy consumption occurs only in the provincial capitals. Electrical energy consumption is 1,501.69 thousand BOE in 2011, and increasing to 5,901.17 thousand BOE in 2025.

Kerosene coversion in KED is as in KEN scenario for household-urban with end year 2011. Electrical

energy consumption for KED scenario in 2011 is 1,459.24 thousand BOE increasing to 5,782.26 thousand BOE in 2025, Other energy consumption between the scenarios KED and KEN scenario is no different, as can be seen at Figure 4.16.

Figure 4.15 Final Energy Demand per Household/Rural per type 2005 - 2025


Household-RURAL sector a). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER SECTOR

Energy consumption in scenario KEN (Figure 4.17) is still dominated by rural population category C (Midle income) of 1,195.94 thousand BOE followed by category D (20% highest income) for 863.67 thou-sand BOE in 2011.

Energy consumption in the KED scenario for category C (Midle income) of 1,188.45 thousand BOE followed by category D for 857 thousand BOE in 2011. Because the number of residents in the category C (Midle income) is greater than the three other category, also the highest energy use occurs here, as can be seen at Figure 4.18.



b). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER TYPE Natural gas in the household-rural in KEN scenario (Figure 4.19) is not used due to lack of gas pipe-

lines, and kerosene to LPG conversion ends in 2012. Non-commercial energy such as wood that is still very much used with 828.24 thousand BOE in 2011 and a decline to 470.85 thousand BOE in 2025 was caused by kerosene to LPG conversion, LPG energy consumption of 1,102.61 thousand BOE in 2011 increased to 1,237.65 thousand BOE in the year 2025.

An increase in electrical energy consumption of 656.94 thousand BOE in 2011 to 1,245.6 thousand

BOE in the year 2025.

KED scenario energy consumption as in scenario KEN and the difference only lies in the use of elec-trical energy, where electrical energy consumption for KED scenario is smaller than the KEN scenario in 2011 for 638.38 thousand BOE and increased to 1,220.52 thousand BOE in 2025, as can be seen at Figure 4.20.



COMMERCIAL SECTOR Commercial sector is the sector that produces services, grouped into; hotel, trade, restaurant, financial

services, entertainment services, and social services

Kerosene for energy consumption KEN scenario and KED scenario will be not subsidized in 2015 and the use of biodiesel started in 2008.

KEN SCENARIO.

a). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER SECTOR In the year 2011 the total energy consumption for Commercial Sector 3,802 thousand BOE or 11.0 %

percent of the total final energy consumption.The largest energy consumer in the commercial sector is so-cial services, with the amount of 2,925.45 thousand BOE or 76.94% in 2011, and then restaurant for 641.04 thousand BOE or 16.86%; trade of 142.58 thousand BOE or 3.75%; hotel for 66.15 thousands BOE or 1.74%, Other types of commercial sector are not too significant in the energy consumption: entertainment services and financial services amounts to 0.51% and 0.19% of total energy consumption, as can seen at Figure 4.21.

Estimated for the year 2025, commercial sector energy consumption for social services will achieve

increased to 12,746.8 thousand BOE in 2025. Restaurant is estimated to have an energy consumption in 2025 reached 1,918.97 thousand BOE, while the energy consumption for the trade in 2025 is estimated at 542.41 thousand BOE. The average annual growth of development the final energy demand by the com-mercial sector based on KEN scenario until the year 2025 is 10.51%.

Figure 4.21 Final Energy Demand Commercial per sector 2005 – 2025

b). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER TYPE

Biodiesel energy consumption in 2009 of 15.5 thousand BOE and increased to 377.95 thou-sand BOE for the year 2025, where the amount of biodiesel is based on the government's policy to replace the ADO, where the energy consumption of ADO in the year of 2009 is 603.94 thousand BOE and become 1,511.82 thousand BOE at 2025.

LPG energy consumption in 2015 of 2,007.46 thousand BOE increased to 4,237.45 thousand

BOE by 2025 due to the replacement of kerosene in 2015.

Electrical energy consumption in 2015 is 2,586.15 thousand BOE and increased to 9,376.31 thousand BOE for the year 2025 (Figure 4.22)

Figure 4.22 Final Energy Demand Commercial per type 2005 – 2025

KED SCENARIO

a). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER SECTOR The largest energy user in the commercial sector are social services (Figure 4.23) in the amount of

2,688.82 thousand BOE in 2011 or 76.94%, and then for restaurant is 634.02 thousand BOE or 16.86%; trade is 126.12 thousand BOE or 3.75% thousand BOE; hotel is 62.93 thousand BOE or 1.74%, other services is not quite much energy consumption namely entertainment services and financial services in the amount of 18.65 thousand BOE and 6.66 thousand BOE.

Estimated for the year 2025, commercial sector energy consumption for social services will increase to

9,534.56 thousand BOE. For restaurant the energy consumption in 2025 reached 1,820.17 thousand BOE, while the energy consumption for the trade in 2025 is estimated at 284.83 thousand BOE.

Figure 4.23 Final Energy Demand Commercial per sector 2005 – 2025

b). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER TYPE Energy consumption of biodiesel and other energy consumption the same as in scenario KEN except

electricity consumption (Figure 4.24).

Electric consumption in 2015 is 1,897.3 thousand BOE and increased to 5,906.1 thousand BOE for the year 2025.

Figure 4.24 Final Energy Demand Commercial per type 2005 – 2025

INDUSTRY SECTOR Industrial sector is driving on economic growth. If the economic growth is getting better, then the in-

creased economic activity and industry sector will growth too. This of course requires a considerable use of energy. Energy consumption in industry sector is mainly used for the production process (direct heating boilers), or as a source of energy for power generation in industrial environments (captive power) and also for lighting.

The Industry Sector consists of 9 groups: food, textiles, wood, paper, chemicals, non-metals, metals,

machinery and others. Each industry has different intensities for different energy consumption which are influenced per every type of industry by the added value produced.

KEN SCENARIO.


Final energy consumption in 2008 in the industry sector is 7,525.43 thousand BOE and increase to 24,823.7 thousand BOE in 2025. Meanwhile, the final energy consumption in 2008 by industry groups who consume large energy is the food industry with 2,797.85 thousands BOE or 1.01% of total final energy consumption in the Industrial Sector. Then followed by chemistry of 2,168.1 thousand BOE (0.78%), non-metal industries of 1,626.91 thousand BOE (0.59%), for metal of 355.63 thousand BOE (0.13%), for wood of 345.79 thousand BOE (0.13%) ; for paper of 87.09 thousand BOE (0.03%); for textile of 80.02 thou-sands BOE (0.03%); for machinery of 57.97 thousand BOE (0.02%); and the least is other of 6.06 thousand BOE (0.002%).

Shown in Figure 4.25, estimated final energy demand in the Industrial Sector during the year 2005-

2025, the final energy demand in 2025 expected to rise at 3.86 times from 2005 levels. Estimated final en-ergy demand in the largest industry sector is the food industry, for the year 2025 of 9,379 thousand BOE or 37.8% of total industrial consumption, followed by the chemistry of 7,099.83 thousand BOE or 28.6% and for non-metal of 5,350.68 thousand BOE or 21.6%. Then followed by the metal industry, wood and final energy demand for other industries is relatively small.

Average growth of final energy demand in the Industrial Sector in 2005-2025 was 6.86% per year for

KEN scenario.

Figure 4.25 Final Energy Demand Industry per sector 2005 – 2025

b). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER TYPE Biggest energy consumption in the industrial sector is ADO with 3,661.25 thousand BOE in 2015 in-

creasing to 6,860.64 thousand BOE in 2025, followed by Natural gas is 2,088.26 thousand BOE in 2015 and increased to 4,712.29 thousand BOE in 2025.

The use of biodiesel energy in KEN scenario of 72.09 thousands BOE for the year 2009, because at

that time a part of energy use ADO and IDO has been replaced by biodiesel, nabati oil for 17,23 thousand BOE in 2010 to replace some of the energy consumption FO, according to government plans use of energy mix.

Elimination of kerosene subsidies cause the energy consumption of LPG for 1,158.42 thousand BOE

at years 2015 increased to 2,442.1 thousand BOE in 2025. Electrical energy consumption in 2008 is 1,127.42 thousand BOE increased to 3,387.81 thousand BOE in 2025, can be seen at Figure 4.26.

Figure 4.26 Final Energy Demand Industry per type 2005 – 2025

KED SCENARIO. a). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER SECTOR

Final energy consumption at 2008 in the Industrial Sector is 7,811.9 thousand BOE or 2.28% of total demand final energy consumption and increased to 35,342.61 thousand BOE in 2025 or for 10.3 % of total demand final energy consumption.

Meanwhile, the final energy consumption in 2008 according to industry groups that consume consid-

erable energy is the food industry for 2,917.21 thousand BOE (0.85%) of total final energy consumption. Then followed by chemistry 2,218.67 thousand BOE (0.65%), non-metal is 1,645.12 thousand BOE (0.48%), metal industry is 404.87 thousand BOE (0.12%), and the smallest is other industry of 7.11 thou-sand BOE (0.002%).

Shown in Fig 4.27, estimated final energy demand in the industrial sector during the year 2005-2025,

the final energy demand in 2025 expected to rise at 5.54 times from the application in 2005. Estimated final energy demand in the largest industry sector is the food industry, for the year 2025 for 13,610.85 thousand BOE or 3.98% of total industrial consumption, followed by the chemistry industry of 9,011.56 thousand BOE or 2.63% and non-metal industry is 6,038.95 thousand BOE or 1.76%. Then followed by the metal

industry, wood and final energy demand for other industries is relatively small. Average growth of final en-ergy demand in the Industrial Sector in 2005-2025 was 8.76% per year for KED scenario.

Figure 4.27 Final Energy Demand Industry per sector 2005 – 2025

b). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER TYPE Energy consumption in the industrial sector for KED scenario is as in KEN scenario, except for

electrical energy consumption.

Electrical energy consumption in 2008 of 1,413.9 thousand BOE increased to 14,216.8 thousand BOE in 2025 (Figure 4.28), because the energy and load demand forcast RUPTL (PT PLN (Persero)) for Sumatera Utara is less than the energy and load demand forcast for RUKD Sumatera Utara province.

Figure 4.28 Final Energy Demand Industry per type 2005 – 2025

TRANSPORTATION SECTOR Transportation is a means of supporting economic activity both for the mobilization of labor, raw ma-

terials and trade goods. The higher the economic activity in an area, then the use of energy for transportation will increase.

Final energy consumption in the transport sector include: diesel oil, premium, avtur and Avgas. En-

ergy demand for transport sector is predicted by using the 2 scenarios namely KEN scenario and KED scenario.

KEN SCENARIO


Based on KEN scenario, in the year 2008 the final energy demand for fuel oil in transportation sector is 12,925.03 thousand BOE and in the year 2025 is estimated at 40,775.58 thousand BOE or an increase with 3.15 times.

Meanwhile, the final energy consumption in 2008 according to the group who consumed a large

enough energy is truck for 4,169.24 thousand BOE or 0.85% of total final energy consumption in transportation sector. Then followed by of of motorcycle is 3,350.82 thousand BOE or 0.72%, airplane for 895.5 thousand BOE or 0.18%, and the least is the ship for 12.88 thousand BOE or 0.003%, as can be seen at Figure 4.29.

Average growth of final energy demand for transport sector in 2005-2025 is 7.41% per year for KEN

scenario.

Figure 4.29 Final Energy Demand Transportation per sector 2005 – 2025


Biggest energy consumption in the transportation sector is gasoline for 8,259.98 thousand BOE in 2009 increased to 21,805.05 thousand BOE in 2025, followed by the ADO for 4,617.8 thousand BOE in 2009 increased by 10,821.87 thousand BOE in 2025, as can be seen at Figure 4.30.

The use of biodiesel energy in the KEN scenario for 45.91 thousand BOE in 2009 because at that time

as part of energy use ADO and IDO has been replaced by biodiesel. The energy consumption of nabati oil

in 2010 is 0.11 thousand BOE replacing part of FO use and energy usage in bioethanol in 2009 is 214.36 thousand BOE replacing gasoline in line with some of the government's plan for the use of energy mix.

Avtur usage in 2008 for 895.12 thousand BOE increased to 3,928.44 thousand BOE in 2025.

Figure 4.30 Final Energy Demand Transportation per type 2005 – 2025

KED SCENARIO. a). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER SECTOR

Energy consumption for the transportation sector is the same in KED scenario as in KEN scenario (Figure 4.31).

Figure 4.31 Final Energy Demand Transportation per sector 2005 – 2025


Energy consumption in the transportation sector in KED scenario as in KEN scenario (Figure 4.32).

Figure 4.32 Final Energy Demand Transportation per type 2005 – 2025

OTHERS SECTOR

In the calculation of final energy demand in others sector are grouped the Agriculture Sub-Sector, Mining Sub-Sector and Construction Sub Sector. Final energy demand in Other Sectors in 2009 is 1,863.36 thousand BOE or 3.31 % of the total final energy consumption.

KEN SCENARIO


Construction sub-sector in the year 2009 is a group that consumes considerable energy, which is about 984.68 thousand BOE or 1.75% of the total final energy consumption. Then the largest use of other energy sub-sector followed by agriculture of 640.58 thousand BOE (1.14%), and mining sub-sector of 238.1 thou-sand BOE (0.42%).

Shown in Figure 4.33, estimates the final energy demand in the others sector during the years 2005-

2025 which grows 5.45% per year or expected to rise at 2.37 times from the application in 2005. Estimated final energy demand of the largest in the other sectors is Sub-Sector Construction, which grew an average of 4.33% per year.

Figure 4.33 Final Energy Demand Others per sector 2005 – 2025

b). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER TYPE Largest energy for Others sector is the ADO with 1,102.47 thousand BOE in 2009 increasing to

1,822.39 thousand BOE in 2025, followed by LPG for 397.5 thousand BOE in 2015 (which replaced kero-sene to LPG) increased by 805.53 thousand BOE in 2025, as can be seen at Figure 4.34.

The use energy of biodiesel in the KEN scenario of 5.86 thousands of BOE for the year 2009 because at that time a part of energy use ADO and IDO has been replaced by biodiesel, the energy consumption of nabati oil in 2010 for 0.94 thousand BOE replaced a part of FO and energy usage in bioethanol in 2009 is 8.00 thousand BOE replace gasoline, according to the government's plan to use of energy mix.

Figure 4.34 Final Energy Demand Others per type 2005 – 2025

KED SCENARIO a). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER SECTOR

Energy consumption in the Others sector for the KED scenario is as in KEN scenario (Figure 4.35).


b). FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PER TYPE Energy consumption in the others sector for the KED scenario as in KEN scenario (Figure 4.36).


ELECTRICITY SUPPLY KEN SCENARIO.

Analysis of energy supply policy is intended to find the conditions of electricity supply and energy op-

timally. For the analysis of electricity supply, a review is carried out in particular to the plans (committed planning) that the Government has made in cooperation with other parties, the aspect of capacity building and completion, such as the construction of a coal power plant in Labuhan Angin (Sibolga) that is planned for completion in 2008 and 2009 with a total capacity of 2x150 MW.

Normal plant operations in 2009 is combination from PLTU Belawan with a activity of 926.79 GWh,

PLTGU Belawan with a activity of 4,940.64 GWh, PLTG Belawan with a activity of 284.06 GWh, PLTG Glugur with a activity 85.09 GWh, PLTG Paya Pasir with a activity of 169.85 GWh, PLTD Titi Kuning with a activity of 21.28 GWh, PLTD Sewa with a activity of 99.06 GWh, PLTA Sipan Sipahoras activity 79.76 GWh, PLTA Renun activity 254.64 GWh, PLTMH isolated with a activity of 10.4 GWh, PLTU La-buhan Angin with a activity of 1,355.25 GWh and PLTP Sibayak 83.26 GWh, with a total activity of 8,310.08 GWh. The total transformation in 2008 is 5,960 GWh and total demand in the year 2008 is 6,100 GWh. From the results of the LEAP analysis showed that lack of 140 GWh of energy, causing blackouts, can be seen at Figure 4.37.

If the addition of the planned power plant is on schedule from the LEAP analysis it can be seen total

demand may be met beginning in 2009 until the year 2018. The total transformation energy produced in 2025 is 17,459 GWh while the total demand is 32,481 GWh, it is shown still be a lack of electrical energy of 15,022 GWh, which required the addition of new plants are already planned out.

Need for fuel in 2025 for Natural gas is 4,597 thousand BOE, Coal is 8,669 thousand BOE, for Geo-thermal is 2,512 thousand BOE, for ADO is 8,418 thousand BOE, for FO is 520 thousand BOE, for Bio-diesel is 2,105 thousand BOE and for Nabati oil is 58 thousand BOE

Figure 4.37 Condition of electricity production and demand requirements

KED SCENARIO

The production of electricity in 2009 is 8,591 GWh while the Domestic Requirements for 9,257 GWh, so there is a lack of 665.9 GWh.

If the addition of the planned power plant is on schedule from the LEAP analysis can be seen Domes-

tic Requirements may be met beginning in 2012 until the year 2015. In KED scenario the electricity needs of the Domestic Requirements to the year 2025 is 42,676 GWh and the production of electricity is 21,351 GWh of which had a deficit of 21,324 GWh, which means nearly 2 times the energy required by the Do-mestic Requirements, can be seen at Figure 4.38.

The need for fuel in 2025 for Natural gas is 4,866 thousand BOE, while the others fuel are as in the

KEN scenario.

Figure 4.38 Condition of electricity production and demand requirements

5 Pro-poor Energy Access

5.1 Poor Village Profile

The Sitardas village is located near by the sea, land altitude at 0 to 500 meters above sea level, consisting of plains and hills. Around 350 km from Kota Medan (capital of Sumatera Utara Province) (Figure 5.1).

Sitardas Village is bordered at the north by Jago-Jago village, at the south with Pulo Pakkat (Batang Toru, South Tapanuli district), the east with Pinang Sori, and the west with the Indonesian Ocean. Sitardas Village consists of three (3) lanes, namely Kampung Sawah, Jambak Toba, and Sawangan Rambutan (Kampung Pandan). Location of each lane is separate apart. Among those three lanes, Kampung Sawah is located near the shore and less developed rural area compared with another lanes. This condition became the consideration in determining the survey location.

The exact survey location is at Kampung Sawah, Sitardas village, Badari subdistrict, Central Tapanuli

district. This village can be reached through the sea using small boats from Hajoran village, which is about 10 km (or about 10-15 minutes by car) from Pandan which is the capital of Central Tapanuli, or travel through the road from Hutabalang village (around 12 km to the southeast Hajoran village). Road condition from Hajoran village to the Kampung Sawah (Sitardas village) is bad. The distance between the village is only about 14 km, people usually used a motorcycle through that road. Access to the Sitardas village practically not avaiable if rainfall level is igh, because the the road will be turned into mud. In bad weather access through the sea is also not avaiable. In conditions like this, Sitardas village practically become into isolated village.

Figure 5.1 Map Sitardas Village (from http://www.coremap.or.id)

5.1.1 Social-Economic Condition Demography

Kampung Sawah consists of 63 families that are part of the 121 families residing in the Sitardas village. Each family has an average of 4 to 5 members. Until August 2008, the population of the Sitardas village is 534 people (Figure 5.2).

Figure 5.2 Population composition based on age (source: Kampung Sawah lane residents data 2008)

Population composition based on sex type is almost equity. The male population is 278 and female population is 256 (Figure 5.3, 5.4). Number of people aged between 15 to 50 years of age is the most, the number reached 278 people, while the population under the age of 15 years amounted to 221 people, and above 50 years as many as 35 people. Based on the age structure, the comparison productive and non-productive people is nearly equal, in other words the burden of indemnity for productive people to non-productive people is 1:1.

Figure 5.3 Age structure male population (source: Kampung Sawah lane residents data 2008)

Description of population by age shows that age structure of men with women have a similar pattern. Age composition is dominated by age under 10 years old and population aged 25 to 35 years old. Thus, the Sitardas village is a village that has a productive population and the potential of productive population (young generation) to 15 years later.

Figure 5.4 Age structure female population (source: Kampung Sawah lane residents data 2008)

Education and Income. Kampung Sawah, located near by the beach is quite isolated lane. The population in this lane generally

work as fishermen and farmer, with the income of Rp 500,000 to Rp 3,000,0000 per month. In the agriculture field, the population working at palm oil plantation and coconut plantations.

Education level is quite low, generally people only passed elementary level (Sekolah Dasar). Number of pre-school people, people studying in elementary level, people who have not passed elementary level, passed elementary level but discontinued from higher education level is about 470 people, almost 88% from total poplation. Governement

Sitardas village led by a Chief of the Village, under the village chief is the chief of a lane. Smallest leaders is hamlet chief whose authority region is under the chief lane.

Sitardas village does not have any indigenous institutions, its population is still quite traditional, highly respect to the people who have magical power. The only social institution is the village/lane.

Sitardas village known as a relatively poor village in Central Tapanuli district and have been received some assistance from international organization. Until August 2008, the last international projects in Sitardas is COREMAP. The project develop/built information center and meeting hall. COREMAP aims to empower citizens in the protection of coral reefs. Public Facilities

Kampung Sawah have very minimal public facilities, some of those are not feasible to use anymore. The public facilities in Kampung Sawah are: • 1(one) Mosque • 1(one) Elementary School (not feasible to use) • 1 (one) Health Service Post (Posyandu, not feasible to use) • 1 (one) Public Hall Infrastucture

Infrastructure condition in Kampung Sawah is very apprehensive. In this village there is no road and water networks, drainage, and others. Housing residents are very dirty and chaotic. Public transportation is not avaiable, people generally used a boat for travelling to other areas. Only six household have a boat, the rests generally request to joint with the boat owner for travelling. Energy Comsumption

Kampung Sawah lane is off-grid electricity region. Thus, people used another energy resources for electricity needs, both for lightning and also for information media (Radio, TV).

Generally, the energy comsumption for Sitardas village could be define base on resources, namely: • Firewood: people use firewood for cooking purposes. Wood was collected from many mangroves along

the coast Sitardas, without damaging the mangroves environtment itself. Generally, people take in the amount of wood more than one day needs. The goal is for stocks, so that they do not need to collecting firewood every day.

• Kerosene: some people use kerosene as a substitute for firewood for cooking purposes. Average kerosene needs for one house are 2 - 4 liters per day.

• Premium (gasoline): premium used for gen-set to produce electricity and also for the boat. Not all households have a gen-set and the boat. Households that have gen-set as electricity is only 10 (ten) of households. Gen-set is only operated at night with an average consumption of premium, 4 - 6 liters/gen-set/day. Electricity produced by the gen-set is distributed to some households that do not have one. In addition to lighting, electricity also used for other electrical equipment, especially the television as media information and entertainment for the villagers. Boats used for fishing, on average require 20 - 30 liters/boat to sail for once (approximately 1 - 2 weeks).

Avaiability of kerose and gasoline depends on the weather. In the bad weather conditions, the villagers

can not purchase either through land or sea, because the dissolution of all transportation. In the normal condition, the two energy sources are also relatively much more expensive than the market price. Demand and Priority Related to Energy

Collecting information on energy related needs obtained through direct discussions with community leaders and the influential head of Kampung Sawah lane. Based on the discussion some of the information obtained relating to the energy needs and supporting activities to increase the population income.

Needs related to energy are:

a. Availability of Electric Energy In the electricity field Central Tapanuli district government has a plan to meet electricity needs. Development of some power plant which is located in Central Tapanuli is the realization of the planning. Among the plants included in the plan are:

i. Hydro Power Electricity Plant (PLTA) Sipan Sihaporas; consists of two plants each with a capacity of 33 MW and 17 MW. Contribution PLTA Sipan Sihaporas overall is 50 MW and currently are connected with the electrical network system Sumbagut, Aceh and Riau.

ii. Steam Power Electricity Plant (Coals PLTU) Labuan Angin built in Labuan Angin Strategic Regions, Subdistrict Tapian Nauli, Centrral Tapanuli. Coal PLTU Labuan Angin plant has a capacity of 2x115 MW. Currently PLTU Labuan Angin Unit I has been operating with a capacity of 115 MW power. Scheduled in April 2009, Unit II PLTU Labuan Angin have been able to operate.

iii. Coal PLTU Sitardas with a capacity 2x100 MW located in the Village Sitardas, Subdistrict Baduri. The location is very close to the Kampung Sawah lane. However, until this time there is no clarity of construction.

iv. If viewed from the existing plants, very possible to deliver electricity to the Sitardas village. However, the electricity network currently not avaiable to Sitardas village. Besides that, the site plants and the Sitardas village are far apart.

b. Continuity supply of kerosene and gasoline

To get kerosene and premium, Kampung Sawah lane residents must buy them to the Hajoran village that the shortest distance through the sea. Or to the Hutabalang village which can be raeched overland using vehicle motorcycle. In bad weather conditions (rain and gale), access to the Hajoran village and Hutabalang village can not be done. So that, Kampung Sawah residents rely solely on firewood for cooking. Fishing activities is also suspends.

5.2 Design of Proposed Energy Infrastructure Natural resources found in the Kampung Sawah lane is limited. Currently, spring with a high fall and

suffcient debit to create a microhydro power is no longer available. Spring can only be used as a source of clean water for residents in Kampung Sawah lane.

Based on climatology data and topographic conditions in Kampung Sawah, options that allow to over-

come the difficulty in access to modern energy sources is to utilize solar power. The strategy proposed to overcome modern energy access problems at Kampung Sawah lane are:

• Based on the survey result, access to modern energy for Kampung Sawah lane could be done by provid-ing the electricity, premium and LPG regularly. The electricity with PV-based infrastructure could be an alternative as electricity source for Kampung Sawah lane.

• While providing the LPG as substitute for kerosene, the continuity of LPG, as well as premium supply must be taken carefully. Failed to provide the continuity of these would be drawbacks the unwanted condition.

• Instead of buying the premium at Hajoran village, local government with PERTAMINA could be build the small silo for premium at Sitardas village. This would be ease the people at Sitardas village to access the premium.

• The road and irrigation network at Kampung Sawah lane should be build or renovating, so as the public facilities to support the economic activities and maintain the public healthy. The development of road and irrigation network could be done by Central Tapanuli district goverment. The district goverment could allocating the budget in APBD.

6 Renewable Energy - Micro hydro Projects

6.1 Design and Development

Microhydro project Borus mini hydro design can be concluded as seen at Table 6.1 below:

Table 6.1 Design Charateristic of PLTMH Borus

Set-up Exploited irrigation stream from Borus river

Design Characteristic

• Flow design: 1,130 l/s • Gross head: 25.05 m • Net head: 24.40 m • Design capacity: 184 kW

Mini hydro • Possible average capacity: 105 kW • Annual power production: 1,196,683 kW • Percentage of utilisation: 54 % • Plant factor : 57 %

Cost estimation for implementation from Borus Mini hydro scheme can be concluded as follow Table

6.2) :

Table 6.2 Cost Estimation PLTMH Borus project

Power Design 184 kW, Flow Design 1,130 l/s

1 US$ = 9,200 IDR 1-May-2008

No.

Item / Spesification Unit Total Unit Price

Total (IDR)

Total (US $)

Summary A Civil Work 1,689,124,000 183,600

B Mechanical & Electrical Equipment

912,903,000 99,229

C Transmission Line 247,970,000 26,953 D Land Acquisition 13,500,000 1,467

E Construction Supervi-sion

343,619,600 37,350

F Contingency 275,067,000 29,899

Total Project Cost (Rupiah) 3,482,183,600 378,498

Result from this financial analysis will be dominated by parameters as follow : • Inflasion : 8 % • Increament Persentage HPP tariff per year : 2 % • Life time Mini hydro : 20 years

Base on Table 6.3 above the value of Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) is 8.35%. Thereby the investment will be payback in 9 years.

Table 6.3 Financial Analysis PLTMH Borus NPV 76,551,015 at end year 0 IDR NPV = Net Present Value IRR 8.35% (nominal) IRR = Internal Rate of Return of Investment The time of 9 Payback period Years

Revenue projection for 20 years can be seen at Figure 6.1.

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0

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ion

s Pendapatan

Pengeluaran

Pendapatan Bersih

Figure 6.1 Revenue projection for 20 years advance curve

From Figure 6.1 is seen that income at 2016 and 2013 decrease cause by addition investment like as addition electrical line and equipment.

6.2 Recommendation

The development of PLTMH Borus in Tanjung Merawa Village, Tiga Nderket sub-regency, Karo regency, Sumatera Utara province as one of electrics source producer is competent technical and need more circumstantial and accurate analysis for economic eligibility. Considering progressively its crisis of energyy resource resulting possibility the increasing of good PLN cost now and also in future, to be ex-pected by donor institute or institution interest to build PLTMH which economical is more beneficial com-pared with PLTD.

This PLTMH project is suggested for the acted and executed to feasibility study level.

7 Conclusion and Recommendation

7.1 Conclusion

1. Law on Regional Autonomy, Oil and Gas Law, clan Electricity Act requires the participation of local government to play a greater role in the development and conduct economic activities in the region, par-ticularly in the energy sector. Area expansion and allocation of equalization funds in turn will spur eco-nomic growth in the region. In order to support optimal economic growth, energy sector development planning becomes more necessary.

2. There are three Scenarios: BAU scenario (Base As Usual) which is the scenario that was left without national or regional policies, the scenario KEN (National Energy Policy), and KED (Regional Energy Policy). The KEN scenario created with the aim of supporting the Presidential Regulation No. 5 of 2006, while the scenario KED is based on the FGD Sumatera Utara held in October 2009.

3. By using the assumption of the scenario, the energy mix target in 2025 as stated in the Presidential Regulation No. 5 of 2006 is not reached, this is because the role of natural gas and renewable energy can not yet fully optimized

4. The conversion process of kerosene to LPG will last until the year 2012 for scenarios KEN and KED, in 2011 for Urban households and for the Rural in 2012. After the end of the conversion, kerosene is not used anymore by the consumer.

5. Growth of electricity consumption refers to the two electrical plans. For scenario KEN refers to the RUKN (National Electricity General Plan) and RUKD (Regional Electricity General Plan), this occurs due to harmony in the preparation of electrical energy consumption projections.

6. Electrification ratio target in 2020 to100%. 7. For both scenarios targeted poor population decreased, this can see of in indications such as an increase

electrification ratio and GRDP growth. 8. Household-urban energy consumption in 2005 for:

KEN scenario; largest energy consumption is category C (Midle income) of 1,399.4 thousan BOE fol-lowed by Categori D (20% high income) amounting to 721.94 thousan BOE, Categori B (1.5 xunder poverty line) for 410.61 thousan BOE and the smallest is Categori A (under poverty line) sebesar112.7 thousan BOE. Economic growth will cause increased fuel consumption by 2025, for category C of 5,586.98 thousan BOE and the smallest is the category A of 238.4 thousand BOE. KED scenario; use of energy equal to KEN scenario for the year 2005, economic growth will cause in-creased fuel consumption can be seen in energy demand by 2025, one each for category C of 5,525.19 thousand BOE and the smallest is a category A for 235.88 thousand BOE

9. Final energy consumption for: KEN scenario: in the year 2005 amounted to 25,513.7 thousand BOE. The share of energy users, respec-tively Transportation Sector (38.35%), Industrial Sector (25.89%), Household Sector (21:48%), Com-mercial Sector (8.27%), and Other Sectors (6.01%) of total final energy in 2005. Final energy consump-tion growth by an average 6.99% per year during 2005-2025, so that the total final energy demand up to year 2025 for 1,145,173 thousand BOE. KED Scenario: energy consumption in the year 2025 equal to KEN scenario. Final energy consumption growth by an average 7.35% per year during 2005-2025, so that the total final energy demand up to year 2025 for 1,185,418 thousand BOE.

10. Household sector for: KEN scenario: electricity demand will be even greater. The share of electricity demand in household-rural for the year 2005-2025 is expected to increase from 15.2% to 41.7%, whereas for household-urban will increase from 29.8% to 59.2%. The growth of electricity demand in household-rural increased 5.47% per year, while in household-urban growth 10.6% per year. On the other hand, oil fuel demand for household-urban in 2005 1,443.6 thousand BOE and decreased to 471.6 thousand BOE year2011 and in 2012 in petroleum demand is zero, while for household-rural in oil fuel demand for 2005 and 1,384.8 thousand BOE decreased to 342.2 thousand BOE in the year 2011 and in accordance with the scenario kerosene becomes zero in year 2012.

KED scenario: electricity demand will be even greater. The share of electricity demand in Households-rural for the year 2005-2025 is expected to increase from 15.2% to 41.2%, whereas for Households-urban will increase from 29.8% to 58.7%. The growth of electricity demand in household-rural growth 5.4% per year, while in household-urban growth 10.5% per year. On the other hand, oil fuel demand for household-urban in the year 2005 amounted to 1,443.6 thousand BOE decreased to and 603.3 thousand BOE in 2010 and in 2011 kerosene demand is zero, while for household-rural in oil fuel demand for 2005 and 1,384.8 thousand BOE decreased be 342.2 thousand BOE in 2011 and in accordance with the scenario kerosene becomes zero in year 2012.

11. Growth of Commercial Sector of activities that lead to high energy demand growth is also high. The growth in energy demand for the Commercial Sector: KEN scenario; estimated to average 10.51% per year during 2005 to 2025. Energy demand is the largest social services, in the year 2005 amounted to 1,547.8 thousand BOE increased and to 12,746.8 thousand BOE in 2025. Kerosene energy demand at 820.5 thousand BOE in year 2005 and decreased to 209.9 thousand BOE in 2014, while the year 2015 kerosene is zero. Electrical energy demand growth is estimated to average 14.7% per year during 205-2025. KED scenario: energy consumption demand growth is estimated to average 9.13% per year during 2005-2025. Electrical energy demand growth is estimated to 12.1% average per year during 2005-2025.

12. The share of the industrial sector energy consumption in 2005 to: KEN scenario: Food industry (37.2%), Industrial Chemicals (28.8%), Non-Metal Industry (21.6%), In-dustrial Metal (4.8%), Industrial Wood ( 4.6%), Paper industry (1.2%), Industrial Textile (1.1%), Indus-trial Machinery (0.8%) and Other Industry (0.1%). Industrial sector growth is estimated to average 6.86% per year during 2005-2025. Biodiesel energy consumption in 2009 of 72.1 thousand BOE in-creased to 1,828.5 thousand BOE in the year 2025 and the energy consumption of nabati oil in 2010 for 17.2 thousand BOE increased to 507.5 thousand BOE by 2025. KED scenario: The growth of industrial sector is estimated to average 8.76% per year during 2005-2025.

13. Transportation sector growth to: KEN scenario; growth in the transport sector is estimated to average 7.41% per year during 2005-2025. The biggest growth vehicles is estimated to cars average 7.91% per annum during 2005-2025 and fol-lowed by a truck for 7.20% per year during the year 2005-2025. KED scenario; is same as KEN scenario.

14. Meanwhile the growth of Others sector for: KEN scenario; others sector growth is estimated to average 5.45% per year during 2005-2025 while the growth of each sector Agriculture estimated average of 6.68%, 6.29% estimated Mining and Construc-tion is estimated 4.33% per year during 2005-2025. Energy demand for: KEN scenarios; energy demand Others largest sector is still dominated by the ADO for 1,102.5 thou-sand BOE in 2009 and increased to 1,822.4 thousand for BOE in 2025. KED scenario; is same as KEN scenario.

15. Energy demand per type up to the year 2025 is expected to remain dominated by fuel oil for: KEN scenario; 65,189.6 thousand BOE or 66.15%. Energy is the second largest share of electricity to approximately 19,910.9 thousand BOE or 20:21%. Other energy types used in relatively small amounts. KED scenario; 64,889.8 thousand BOE or 61.54%. Energy is the second largest share of electricity to approximately 27,125.7 thousand BOE or 25.72% . Other Other energy types used in relatively small amounts.

16. The persistently high fuel consumption growth driven by the growth of industrial sector and commercial sector is relatively high. Fuel consumption growth in the transportation sector is still relatively high, for: KEN scenario: by 2025 the share of transport fuel consumption is still dominant 41.4% of the total fuel consumption. KED scenario: by 2025 the share of transport fuel consumption is still dominant 38.7% of the total fuel consumption.

17. Type of fuel the most widely used in Sumatera Utara Province to: KEN scenario; in the year 2005 is ADO (28.3% of the total fuel), then followed by gasoline (22.5%), and kerosene (17.2%). Until the year 2025, estimated there was an increase in the share of ADO slightly (approximately 21.3%). While the

use of share gasoline of 22.7% and the share of kerosene consumption declined sharply due to conver-sion to LPG kerosene in 2015. KED scenario; energy consumption in fuel KEN scenario as in 2005, while that for the year 2025, a de-cline in the use of ADO (19.9%), gasoline (21.2%) it is due to bioethanol energy consumption (2.0%) and biodiesel (5.0%).

18. The average growth of LPG consumption between 2005 - 2025 for the estimated 5.3% per year for KEN scenario, while KED scenario reach to 5.1% per year .

19. The average growth of natural gas consumption between 2005 - 2025 estimated for 6.1% per year for KEN scenario, growth value of natural gas for KED scenario is same as KEN scenario.

20. The use of coal in province Sumatera Utara was relatively small, and until now only used by industry Non-Metal and Metal, for KEN scenari is 17 thousand BOE in 2005 and increased to 64.1 thousand BOE by 2025. While for KED scenario coal energy consumption as KEN scenario.

21. For Ken scenario, the electrical energy sent to the user (Power plant - Transmission and Distribution) in Sumatera Utara province in the year 2005 amounted to 5,392 GWh of electrical energy supply growth by 6.2% per year over the period 2005-2025, while the total demand for year 2005 amounted to 4,613 GWh with a growth of 10.3% per year. From the year 2005 - 2006 supply of electricity is still positive, but from the year 2007-2008 electricity supply deficit. When generating Labuhan Angin was operated with full kapasits in 2009 and the plant is planned dopersikan have been built and there will be a surplus of electrical power from 2009 untill 2018, and starting in 2019 untill 2025 North Sumatera province will experience a deficit of electrical power back. For KED scenario, the electric energy supply in 2005 as in KEN scenario, with the growth of electric energy supply by 5.5% per year between 2005-2025, while total demand scenario as in KEN and elec-trical energy demand growth in 2005-2025 of 12.0% per year. Electrical energy deficit occurred from 2017 untill 2025 to Sumatera Utara province.

22. Potential water resources in the province of Sumatra Utara consists of a large scale is 3031.3 MW, the mini hydro scale is 13,890 kW and micro hydro scale is 6035.2 kW. Geothermal potential of the already proven for 375 MWe. Until now, the energy potential of geothermal and water is not utilized the maximum.

23. PLTS is already installed for the amount of 27.100 Wp of 542 units untill 2005 and is used for areas far remote from existing power lines

24. For both scenarios there is additional energy supplies from the supply side of the form: � Steam Plant addition; Pangkalan Susu, Paluh Merbau. � Geothermal Power addition : Sarulla, Sorik Merapi, Sipaholon, Pusuk Buhit, Gn Sinabung and

Simbolon. � Gas Generator addition: Sumut I and II � Hydro Power addition: Asahan I

7.2 Recommendation 1. To support the attainment of the target mix in 2025 accordance with the provisions Presidential Regula-

tion no. 5 in 2006 will require a step-by-step approach about the use and management of natural gas and renewable energy.

2. Need to be made a legal umbrella to ensure that the supply of such coal from Kalimantan and South Sumatera as a backup to run smoothly, so as not to disrupt the supply of electrical energy.

3. Growth in electricity demand is high, if not anticipated in planning the development of electric-ity generation capacity is well in the future will be able to cause electricity supply crisis. Sev-eral factors into consideration in planning power plants are: load growth, load characteristics, the development, investment costs, operational costs, environmental impacts, types of energy inputs, and the availability of primary energy.

4. The installed capacity LPG plant at Pk. Berandan is 60 mmscfd planned to be operational late 2009. LPG factory in Pangkalan Susu (PT. Maruta) with feed stock gas1.2 mmscfd and produces 30 tons LPG.

5. Potential energy of geothermal, hydropower is expected to be optimized as much as possible so that the dependence on fossil fuel is reduced. This can be done by offering potential sites for private management in collaboration with government agencies.

6. To support the use of renewable energy such as bio-diesel, bio-ethanol and vegetable oil, it is necessary to make a green energy-producing plant it. In this case local governments should work together with private companies such as by PT. Pertamina, PT Perkebunan Negara.

7. In terms of energy supply from bio-fuel farmers wanting to plant a green energy-producing plants should be educated through the training by the governement official, and also create a legal umbrella that includes a guarantee of protection to farmers from planting until the sales process to market.

REFERENCES

1. PT (Persero) PLN Wilayah Sumatera Utara, “ General Plan for Electricity Generation 2006-2015”. 2. PT (Persero) PLN Pusat, “National Electricity General Plan”, 2007 – 2016. 3. Dinas Pertambangan dan Energi Propinsi Sumatera Utara, “ Regional Electricity General (RUKD)”,

2007. 4. Presidential Regulation No. 5 year 2006 on National Energy Policy for Energy Mix. 5. Pemerintah Propinsi Sumatera Utara, “ Regional Long Term Development Plan” 2005 – 2025.

ANNEX 1

(Energy balance)

A. Socio - Economic

Land Area 71,680.84 km2

Population 12,326,678 Persons

Number of Households 2,717,020 Households

Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP)

Value 90,381.57 Billion Rupiah

Per Capita 7.33 Million Rupiah

GRDP by Sector (% of total GRDP)

Agriculture 24.55 %

Mining 1.19 %

Manufacture Industry 23.45 %

Utility 0.79 %

Construction 6.10 %

Commercial Service 17.69 %

Transportation 8.17 %

Financial Service 6.02 %

Social Service 9.17 %

B. Energy Production

Primary Energy Production 5,244.82 Thousand BOE

Crude Oil 1,339.19 Thousand BOE

Natural Gas 3,767.31 Thousand BOE

Hydropower 128.13 Thousand BOE (output)

Geothermal 10.20 Thousand BOE (output)

Wood 1,046.53 Thousand BOE

Secondary Energy Production 4,630.55 Thousand BOE

Oil Fuel 501.35 Thousand BOE

LPG 181.52 Thousand BOE

Electricity 3,888.74 Thousand BOE

Charcoal 58.94 Thousand BOE

Consumption by Type 25,663.25 Thousand BOE

Coal 17.13 Thousand BOE

Oil Fuel 19,650.13 Thousand BOE

Natural Gas 1,206.56 Thousand BOE

Electricity 2,828.01 Thousand BOE

LPG 745.30 Thousand BOE

Biomass 1,041.18 Thousand BOE

Non Energy 174.95 Thousand BOE

Consumption by Sector 25,663.25 Thousand BOE

Household 5,480.90 Thousand BOE

Commercial 2,111.40 Thousand BOE

Industry 6,604.88 Thousand BOE

Transportation 9,758.18 Thousand BOE

Agriculture, Mining, and Construction 1,532.94 Thousand BOE

Non Energy 174.95 Thousand BOE

Elasticity of Final Energy Use 0.866

Intensity of Final Energy Use 0.283 BOE/Million Rupiah

Final Energy Consumption per Capita 2.072 BOE/Capita/Year

Electricity Use per Capita 374.26 kWh/Capita/Year

Electrified Village Ratio 86.08 %

Electrification Ratio 72.72 %

C. Final Energy Consumption

D. Energy Economy Indikator

Summary of Energy Profile in North Sumatera Province 2005

21%

60%

2%

0%17%

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Hydropower

Geothermal

Wood

11%

4%

84%

1%

Oil Fuel

LPG

Electricity

Charcoal

76%

5%

11%

3%

4%0%

1%

Coal

Oil Fuel

Natural Gas

Electricity

LPG

Biomass

Non Energy

21%

8%

26%

38%

6% 1%

Household

Commercial

Industry

Transportation

Agriculture, Mining, and Construction

Non Energy

Agriculture

26%

Mining

1%

Manufacture

Industry

25%

Utility

1%

Construction

6%

Commercial Service

18%

Transportation

8%

Financial Service

6%

Social Service

9%

E. Energy Commodity Balance 2005

Hydopower Geothermal Charcoal Wood Coal Natural Gas Crude Oil Oil Fuel Avgas

GWh GWh M3 M3 Ton MMSCF Barrel Kilo Liter Kilo Liter

1 Primary Energy Supply 209 17 - 2,093,070 4,281 20,976 882,885 4,372,809 55

a. Indigeneous Production 209 17 - 2,093,070 - 20,976 1,339,185 - -

b. Import - - - - 4,281 - - 4,372,809 55

c. Export - - - - - - (456,300) - -

-

2 Energy Transformation (209) (17) 58,940 (117,880) - (14,258) (882,885) (1,178,955) -

a. Oil Refinery - - - - - - (882,885) 80,796 -

b. Electricity Generation (209) (17) - - - (14,258) - (1,259,751) -

c. Charcoal Making - - 58,940 (117,880) - - - - -

3 Own Use and Losses - - (5,358) - - - - (4,040) -

a. Transformation Process - - (5,358) - - - - (4,040) -

b. Transmission & Distribution - - - - - - - - -

4 Final Energy Supply - - 53,582 1,975,190 4,281 6,718 - 3,189,814 55

5 Statistical Difference - - - - - - - - -

6 Final Energy Consumption - - 53,582 1,975,190 4,281 6,718 - 3,189,814 55

a. Industry - - - - 4,281 6,503 - 647,658 -

b. Transportation - - - - - - - 1,610,951 55

c. Household - - 53,582 1,975,190 - 151 - 477,171 -

d. Commercial - - - - - 65 - 209,288 -

e. Other Sector - - - - - - - 244,745 -

f. Non-Energy Use - - - - - - - - -

E. Energy Commodity Balance 2005 (Continued)

Avtur Mogas Kerosene ADO IDO FO LPGOther Oil

ProductsElectricity

Kilo Liter Kilo Liter Kilo Liter Kilo Liter Kilo Liter Kilo Liter Ton Barrel GWh

1 Primary Energy Supply 130,207 986,267 692,474 2,023,128 22,712 517,968 67,200 - (779)

a. Indigeneous Production - - - - - - - - -

b. Import 130,207 986,267 692,474 2,023,128 22,712 517,968 67,200 - -

c. Export - - - - - - - - (779)

2 Energy Transformation - - 48,659 (913,538) - (314,076) 21,294 174,946 6,344

a. Oil Refinery - - 48,659 22,741 - 9,395 21,294 174,946 -

b. Electricity Generation - - - (936,279) - (323,472) - - 6,344

c. Charcoal Making - - - - - - - - -

3 Own Use and Losses - - (2,433) (1,137) - (470) (1,065) - (952)

a. Transformation Process - - (2,433) (1,137) - (470) (1,065) - -

b. Transmission & Distribution - - - - - - - - (952)

4 Final Energy Supply 130,207 986,267 738,700 1,108,453 22,712 203,422 87,429 174,946 4,613

5 Statistical Difference - - - - - - - - -

6 Final Energy Consumption 130,207 986,267 738,700 1,108,453 22,712 203,422 87,429 174,946 4,613

a. Industry - - 81,051 350,563 22,712 193,333 19,578 - 1,635

b. Transportation 130,207 931,641 78 548,887 - 84 - - -

c. Household - - 477,171 - - - 42,797 - 1,989

d. Commercial - - 138,492 70,797 - - 25,054 - 989

e. Other Sector - 54,626 41,909 138,206 - 10,005 - - -

f. Non-Energy Use - - - - - - - 174,946 -

F. Energy Balance 2005

Hydopower Geothermal Charcoal Wood Coal Natural Gas Crude Oil Oil Fuel Avgas Avtur

BOE BOE BOE BOE BOE BOE BOE BOE BOE BOE

1 Primary Energy Supply 128,126 10,203 - 1,046,535 17,126 3,767,307 882,885 27,499,333 303 767,011

a. Indigeneous Production 128,126 10,203 - 1,046,535 - 3,767,307 1,339,185 - - -

b. Import - - - - 17,126 - - 27,499,333 303 767,011

c. Export - - - - - - (456,300) - - -

2 Energy Transformation (128,126) (10,203) 58,940 (58,940) - (2,560,746) (882,885) (7,824,137) - -

a. Oil Refinery - - - - - - (882,885) 501,349 - -

b. Electricity Generation (128,126) (10,203) - - - (2,560,746) - (8,325,486) - -

c. Charcoal Making - - 58,940 (58,940) - - - - - -

3 Own Use and Losses - - (5,358) - - - - (25,067) - -

a. Transformation Process - - (5,358) - - - - (25,067) - -

b. Transmission & Distribution - - - - - - - - - -

4 Final Energy Supply - - 53,582 987,595 17,126 1,206,561 - 19,650,129 303 767,011

5 Statistical Difference - - - - - - - - - -

6 Final Energy Consumption - - 53,582 987,595 17,126 1,206,561 - 19,650,129 303 767,011

a. Industry - - - - 17,126 1,167,903 - 4,250,461 - -

b. Transportation - - - - - - - 9,758,182 303 767,011

c. Household - - 53,582 987,595 - 27,066 - 2,828,384 - -

d. Commercial - - - - - 11,592 - 1,280,161 - -

e. Other Sector - - - - - - - 1,532,941 - -

f. Non-Energy Use - - - - - - - - - -

ANNEX 2

(Detailed Model Assumptions)

1) Demand Proyection The fuel intensity value is determined by dividing the 2005 volume of fuel consumption by the activity

volume in each subsector (household, commercial, industry, transportation and others).

The value of elasticity is the relation between averaged activity growths compared to averaged regional GRDP growth. For some transport modes, also population growth was taken into account to determine the vehicle amount growth projections. The averaging was done over 2001-2005. A curve fitting approach was chosen to determine the elasticity.

Parameter

National Energy Policy (KEN) Regional Energy Policy (KED)

Population Growth 2010 – 1,2%, 2015 – 1,50%, 2020 – 1%, dan 2025 – 0,98%.

2010 – 1,2%, 2015 – 1,50%, 2020 – 1%, dan 2025 – 0,98%.

GRDP Growth 2006 – 6,0%, 2011 – 6,8%, 2016 – 7.2% dan 2021 – 8,2%.

2006 – 6,0%, 2011 – 6,8%, 2016 – 7.2% dan 2021 – 8,2%.

Industry Elasticity 0.967 0.967 Commercial 1.089 1.089 Others 0.735 0.735 Transportasi Elasticity a. Car: Population : GRDP :

1.05 1.19

1.05 1.19

b. Motor cycle : Population : GRDP :

0.23 3.58

0.23 3.58

c. Bus : Population : GRDP :

1.25 0.07

1.25 0.07

Truck : Population : GRDP :

0.53 1.16

0.53 1.16

Train : Population : GRDP :

0.58 0.19

0.58 0.19

Ferry : Population : GRDP :

0.70 0.96

0.70 0.96

Ship : GRDP :

0.73

0.73

Aeroplane : Population : GRDP :

0.90 5.65

0.90 5.65

2) Energy Intencity and Energy consumption activity.

a) Energy Intencity

The base year intencity untill 2025 is split value per energy type as Kerosene, LPG, FO, IDO, ADO and Renewable energy. Kerosene will be changed by LPG, ADO will be chaged by biodiesel, IDO and FO will be changed by Nabati oil and Gasoline will be changed by Bioethanol. Electricity growth is determine base on RUKN for KEN scenario and RUKD for KED scenario.

Intencity projection untill 2025 in LEAP model using interpolation metode with the formulation

is (year;value)and it can be seen in table below:

Skenario

Hal National Energy Policy (KEN) Regional Energy Policy (KED)

Terminated subsidize Kerosene at 2012 Terminated subsidize Kerosene at 2011 for Urban and 2012 for Rural

Conversion Kerosene to LPG

Terminated subsidize Kerosene at 2015 Terminated subsidize Kerosene at 2015 for Commercial, Idustry and Others

Biodiesel Commercial,Industry, Others

Interp(2009,2,5%,2010,5%,2015,15%, 2020,15%,2025,20%)

Interp(2009,2,5%,2010,5%,2015,15%, 2020,15%,2025,20%)

Transportation Interp(2009,1%,2010,2,5%,2015,5%, 2020,10%,2025,20%)

Interp(2009,1%,2010,2,5%,2015,5%, 2020,10%,2025,20%)

Power Plant Interp(2009,1%,2010,2,5%,2015,5%, 2020,10%,2025,20%)

Interp(2009,1%,2010,2,5%,2015,5%, 2020,10%,2025,20%)

Bioetanol Commercial,Industry, Others

Interp(2009,5%,2010,7%,2015,10%, 2020,12%,2025,15%)

Interp(2009,5%,2010,7%,2015,10%, 2020,12%,2025,15%)

Transportation Interp(2009,1%,2010,3%,2015,5%, 2020,10%,2025,15%)

Interp(2009,1%,2010,3%,2015,5%, 2020,10%,2025,15%)

Nabati Oil Commercial,Industry, Others

Interp(2009,0%,2010,1%,2015,3%, 2020,5%,2025,10%)

Interp(2009,0%,2010,1%,2015,3%, 2020,5%,2025,10%)

Transportation Interp(2009,0%,2010,1%,2015,3%, 2020,5%,2025,10%)

Interp(2009,0%,2010,1%,2015,3%, 2020,5%,2025,10%)

Power Plant Interp(2009,0,25%,2010,1%,2015,5%, 2020,7%,2025,10%)

Interp(2009,0,25%,2010,1%,2015,5%, 2020,7%,2025,10%)

Electricity Growth Household GrowthFromValue(0.091,4.9%,2016,5.8%) Growthfromvalue (xxx, 4.4%,2015,6.0%)

Commercial GrowthFromValue(0.03183,8.2%,2016,5.2%) Growthfromvalue (xxx, 4.9%,2015,3.9%)

Industry GrowthFromValue(0.0322,-0.5%,2016,-0.6%) Growthfromvalue (xxx, 7.3%,2015,6.4%)

b) Energy Activity Consumption Energy activity consumption will be increase incoming year, so that the approach is population

growth for household sector , vechicule growth for transportation sector and GRDP growth for commercial, industry and others sectors.

Exception for household sector the value of elasticity is include in projection and the projection metode can be seen at Table, as follow:

Scenario Sector

National Energy Policy (KEN) Regional Energy Policy (KED) Household Growth(Key\Population Growth[per year]) Growth(Key\Population Growth[per year])

Commercial PrevYearValue*(1+Key\GRDP Growth[per year]*1.089)

PrevYearValue*(1+Key\GRDP Growth[per year]*1.089)

Industry GrowthAs(Key\GRDP,0.967) GrowthAs(Key\GRDP,0.967)

Transportation

PrevYearValue*(1+Key\Population Growth[per year]*Key\Elasticity MODA TRANSPORT[units])*(1+Key\GRDP Growth[per year]*Key\Elasticity MODA TRANSPORT 2[units])

PrevYearValue*(1+Key\Population Growth[per year]*Key\Elasticity MODA TRANSPORT[units])*(1+Key\GRDP Growth[per year]*Key\Elasticity MODA TRANSPORT 2[units])

Others GrowthAs(Key\GRDP,0.735) GrowthAs(Key\GRDP,0.735) 3) Extended Supply.

Extended the new power plant. Electricity consumption growth increase from year to year causing addition needed the new capacity power plant and its will be operate according the Table follows:

Name Fuel Capacity (MW) Operation year PLTD Sewa HSD 65 2008 PLTU Labuhan Angin Coal 2x115 2008 PLTU Pangkalan Susu Coal 200, 200 2013,2014 PLTP Sarula Geothermal 60, 110, 120 2010,2011,2012 PLTG New Sumut I Natural gas 150 2016 PLTG New Sumut II Natural gas 200 2017 PLTA Asahan I Hydro 180 2010 PLTU Paluh Merbau Coal 300 2012 PLTP Sorik Marapi Geothermal 55 2012 PLTP Sipaholon Geothermal 30 2012 PLTP Pusuk Bukit Geothermal 55 2014 PLTP Gunung Sinabung Geothermal 20 2014 PLTP Simbolon Geothermal 55,55 2015,2016

4) Energy and load demand forcast a) National Electricity General Plan (RUPTL)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Rumah tangga 2166.707 2351.56 2616.16 2888.83 3189.93 3477.86 3791.79 4133.54 4506.08 4875.28 Komersial 1162.48 1425.09 1666.43 1927.88 2230.29 2533.43 2877.72 3268.17 3711.55 4192.53 Industri 1843.23 1763.68 1916.50 2071.47 2238.75 2397.91 2568.15 2749.99 2944.46 3152.41 Total 5172.42 5540.33 6199.09 6888.18 7658.97 8409.20 9237.67 10151.71 11162.10 12220.24

b) Regional Electricity General (RUKD)”

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Rumah tangga 2240.7 2413.9 2616.7 2854.2 3113.3 3395.5 3703.3 4039.1 4405.2 4804.5 Komersial 1083.9 1194.8 1329.8 1490.4 1670.4 1871.9 2097.7 2350.8 2634.5 2952.6 Industri 2018.5 2276.8 2590.5 2972.9 3411.5 3913.9 4489.9 5150.1 5906.9 6774.2

Total 5343.1 5885.5 6537 7317.5 8195.2 9181.3 10290.9 11540 12946.6 14531.3

ANNEX 3

(Selected detailed LEAP result Tables)

1) Demand energy final by sector and fuel

I. Demand energy final by sector

Demand Results: Energy demand final units

Scenario: BAU, Fuel: All Fuels

Branch: Demand

Units: Million Barrel of Oil Equivalents

2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Household 5.481 5.766 6.059 6.209 6.515 6.991 7.83 8.606

Commercial 2.111 2.372 2.664 2.824 3.172 3.777 5.052 6.757

Industry 6.605 7.325 8.124 8.556 9.49 11.084 14.359 18.602

Transportation 9.785 11.59 13.489 14.437 16.409 19.483 24.826 30.835

Others 1.532 1.658 1.793 1.865 2.018 2.271 2.765 3.366

Total 25.514 28.71 32.13 33.891 37.604 43.606 54.832 68.166


Scenario: KEN, Fuel: All Fuels

Branch: Demand

Units: Thousand Barrel of Oil Equivalents

2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Household 5481.12 5918.869 6398.87 6655.67 7207.69 8144.84 10260.25 12952.8

Commercial 2111.14 2594.136 3154.99 3471.14 4149.29 5507.7 9220.289 15566.8

Industry 6604.69 7218.954 7831.39 8425.46 9612.01 11726.3 16950.59 24513.6

Transportation 9784.66 11809.73 14091.4 15302.43 17937.5 22259 30550.18 40775.6

Others 1532.11 1703.583 1863.36 1966.951 2168.35 2475.53 3278.617 4423.23

Total 25513.7 29245.27 33340 35821.65 41074.8 50113.4 70259.92 98232


Scenario: KED, Fuel: All Fuels

Branch: Demand


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Household 5481.124 5904.808 6364.892 6609.342 7130.477 8003.289 10119.993 12808.818

Commercial 2111.136 2543.872 3022.584 3283.133 3815.144 4818.851 7575.179 12096.556

Industry 6604.689 7395.917 8243.094 8999.226 10597.4 13647.9 21725.242 35342.611

Transportation 9784.657 11809.733 14091.427 15302.432 17937.455 22259.027 30550.175 40775.576

Others 1532.11 1703.583 1863.362 1966.951 2168.353 2475.53 3278.617 4423.228

Total 25513.716 29357.913 33585.359 36161.083 41648.829 51204.597 73249.206 105446.789

II. Demand energy final by fuel


Scenario: BAU

Branch: Demand


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Wood 987.455 981.474 974.114 969.893 960.316 942.955 905.275 855.329

Natural Gas 1206.259 1337.866 1483.738 1562.5 1732.724 2023.284 2619.342 3390.476

Nabati Oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LPG 745.506 825.154 912.118 958.564 1057.87 1224.468 1557.44 1975.93

Kerosene 4378.36 4683.895 5011.858 5184.952 5550.905 6154.421 7332.673 8780.245

IDO 150.294 166.691 184.876 194.7 215.942 252.227 326.752 423.295

Gasoline 5747.556 7075.482 8437.621 9084.982 10412.259 12406.055 15629.098 19082.374

FO 1416.095 1568.678 1737.752 1829.023 2026.241 2362.765 3052.76 3944.857

Electricity 2827.871 3132.253 3462.836 3638.764 4013.67 4639.575 5882.698 7312.764

Coal 17.01 18.865 20.924 22.035 24.439 28.546 36.981 47.907

Charcoal 53.683 54.859 55.941 56.444 57.367 58.528 59.779 60.016

Bioetanol 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Biodiesel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Avtur 767.018 805.691 859.577 901.922 995.405 1161.875 1535.52 2098.258

Avgas 0.333 0.35 0.374 0.392 0.433 0.505 0.668 0.912

ADO 7216.275 8059.04 8988.162 9486.896 10556.254 12350.45 15892.636 20193.531

Total 25513.716 28710.298 32129.891 33891.067 37603.824 43605.656 54831.62 68165.893


Scenario: KEN

Branch: Demand


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Wood 987.455 969.867 935.513 910.677 859.701 780.504 662.286 539.987

Natural Gas 1206.259 1322.033 1438.098 1547.487 1766.322 2156.236 3240.456 4863.863

Nabati Oil 0 0.025 0.081 18.286 37.459 76.098 183.435 531.402

LPG 745.506 837.864 2002.215 3212.638 5852.029 7764.255 9714.18 12311.724

Kerosene 4378.36 4731.554 4026.407 3099.871 1020.45 0.479 0.576 0.696

IDO 150.294 164.519 174.275 182.833 204.486 241.938 331.692 453.373

Gasoline 5747.556 7214.564 8622.025 9310.216 10917.671 13436.948 17836.547 22386.071

FO 1416.095 1552.867 1689.644 1799.452 2037.05 2456.229 3481.904 4781.053

Electricity 2827.871 3408.158 4100.762 4532.619 5491.223 7357.828 12204.624 19910.908

Coal 17.01 18.62 20.23 21.781 24.885 30.425 44.164 64.139

Charcoal 53.683 54.672 55.413 54.987 53.915 51.768 46.975 40.885

Bioetanol 0 2.929 222.361 359.896 521.329 808.474 1326.762 2157.64

Biodiesel 0 1.319 139.356 359.727 591.027 1080.135 2602.191 5243.617

Avtur 767.018 847.546 951.829 1027.532 1201.453 1529.892 2377.326 3928.438

Avgas 0.333 0.361 0.399 0.427 0.491 0.612 0.921 1.48

ADO 7216.275 8118.376 8961.425 9383.225 10495.309 12341.623 16205.886 21016.688

Total 25513.716 29245.274 33340.032 35821.653 41074.801 50113.442 70259.924 98231.965


Scenario: KED

Branch: Demand


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Wood 987.455 969.857 935.513 910.681 859.716 780.538 662.308 539.987

Natural Gas 1206.259 1322.117 1438.285 1547.733 1766.702 2156.859 3236.658 4853.67

Nabati Oil 0 0.025 0.081 18.286 37.459 76.098 183.435 531.402

LPG 745.506 837.864 2146.709 3514.316 5852.156 7765.139 9718.938 12321.985

Kerosene 4378.36 4731.554 3881.882 2798.239 1020.45 0.479 0.576 0.696

IDO 150.294 164.519 174.275 182.833 204.486 241.938 331.692 453.373

Gasoline 5747.556 7214.564 8622.025 9310.216 10917.671 13436.948 17836.547 22386.071

FO 1416.095 1552.867 1689.644 1799.452 2037.05 2456.229 3481.904 4781.053

Electricity 2827.871 3520.723 4346.051 4871.846 6064.78 8447.44 15192.924 27125.664

Coal 17.01 18.62 20.23 21.781 24.885 30.425 44.164 64.139

Charcoal 53.683 54.672 55.295 54.895 53.866 51.768 46.975 40.885

Bioetanol 0 2.929 222.361 359.896 521.329 808.474 1326.762 2157.64

Biodiesel 0 1.319 139.356 359.727 591.027 1080.135 2602.191 5243.617

Avtur 767.018 847.546 951.829 1027.532 1201.453 1529.892 2377.326 3928.438

Avgas 0.333 0.361 0.399 0.427 0.491 0.612 0.921 1.48

ADO 7216.275 8118.376 8961.425 9383.225 10495.309 12341.623 16205.886 21016.688

Total 25513.716 29357.913 33585.359 36161.083 41648.829 51204.597 73249.206 105446.789

2. Demand energy final by sector and fuel

2.1 Household

I. Demand energy final by sector Household



Branch: Demand\Household


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

URBAN 2644.65 2895.584 3161.539 3300.364 3590.152 4056.558 4924.976 5833.539

RURAL 2836.475 2870.361 2897.618 2908.604 2924.963 2934.441 2905.199 2772.427

Total 5481.124 5765.945 6059.158 6208.969 6515.115 6990.999 7830.175 8605.967





2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

URBAN 2644.65 3028.924 3460.585 3696.052 4211.019 5108.606 7173.903 9965.43

RURAL 2836.475 2889.945 2938.284 2959.618 2996.667 3036.234 3086.351 2987.324

Total 5481.124 5918.869 6398.869 6655.67 7207.686 8144.84 10260.254 12952.754





2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

URBAN 2644.65 3019.629 3437.647 3664.369 4156.826 5005.581 7065.237 9846.585

RURAL 2836.475 2885.179 2927.245 2944.973 2973.651 2997.708 3054.756 2962.232

Total 5481.124 5904.808 6364.892 6609.342 7130.477 8003.289 10119.993 12808.818

II. Demand energy final by fuel Household


Scenario: BAU



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Wood 987.455 981.474 974.114 969.893 960.316 942.955 905.275 855.329

Natural Gas 27.171 29.975 32.971 34.544 37.848 43.216 53.36 65.167

LPG 364.931 400.007 437.16 456.546 497.001 562.089 683.256 821.928

Kerosene 2828.397 2959.89 3093.933 3161.903 3299.719 3511.068 3875.283 4253.694

Electricity 1219.488 1339.74 1465.039 1529.639 1662.864 1873.142 2253.222 2549.833

Charcoal 53.683 54.859 55.941 56.444 57.367 58.528 59.779 60.016

Total 5481.124 5765.945 6059.158 6208.969 6515.115 6990.999 7830.175 8605.967


Scenario: KEN



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Wood 987.455 969.867 935.513 910.677 859.701 780.504 662.286 539.987

Natural Gas 27.171 30.383 33.778 35.544 39.212 45.047 64.153 88.344

LPG 364.931 405.796 1241.401 2091.074 3893.596 4200.871 4675.967 5136.75

Kerosene 2828.397 2972.908 2336.501 1592.784 0 0 0 0

Electricity 1219.488 1485.243 1796.264 1970.604 2361.261 3066.65 4810.872 7146.787

Charcoal 53.683 54.672 55.413 54.987 53.915 51.768 46.975 40.885

Total 5481.124 5918.869 6398.869 6655.67 7207.686 8144.84 10260.254 12952.754


Scenario: KED



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Wood 987.455 969.857 935.513 910.681 859.716 780.538 662.308 539.987

Natural Gas 27.171 30.467 33.965 35.79 39.592 45.67 60.355 78.151

LPG 364.931 405.796 1385.894 2392.751 3893.722 4201.756 4680.726 5147.012

Kerosene 2828.397 2972.908 2191.976 1291.151 0 0 0 0

Electricity 1219.488 1471.108 1762.249 1924.074 2283.58 2923.557 4669.629 7002.783

Charcoal 53.683 54.672 55.295 54.895 53.866 51.768 46.975 40.885

Total 5481.124 5904.808 6364.892 6609.342 7130.477 8003.289 10119.993 12808.818

III. Demand energy final by fuel URBAN


Scenario: BAU

Branch: Demand\Household\URBAN


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Wood 47.944 51.235 54.603 56.316 59.799 65.167 74.494 84.287

Natural Gas 27.171 29.975 32.971 34.544 37.848 43.216 53.36 65.167

LPG 332.721 366.003 401.474 420.065 459.029 522.159 640.922 778.489

Kerosene 1443.635 1562.605 1687.043 1751.379 1884.419 2095.32 2479.031 2906.408

Electricity 789.151 881.361 980.643 1033.046 1143.606 1324.543 1669.709 1990.231

Charcoal 4.028 4.405 4.806 5.015 5.451 6.153 7.46 8.958

Total 2644.65 2895.584 3161.539 3300.364 3590.152 4056.558 4924.976 5833.539


Scenario: KEN



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Wood 47.944 51.87 55.002 56.11 58.141 60.703 65.431 69.133

Natural Gas 27.171 30.383 33.778 35.544 39.212 45.047 64.153 88.344

LPG 332.721 371.49 846.799 1340.219 2445.18 2755.95 3302.98 3899.095

Kerosene 1443.635 1586.629 1300.723 904.898 0 0 0 0

Electricity 789.151 984.073 1219.329 1354.146 1662.992 2240.885 3734.465 5901.174

Charcoal 4.028 4.479 4.954 5.135 5.493 6.021 6.873 7.684

Total 2644.65 3028.924 3460.585 3696.052 4211.019 5108.606 7173.903 9965.43


Scenario: KED



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Wood 47.944 51.86 55.002 56.114 58.156 60.737 65.452 69.133

Natural Gas 27.171 30.467 33.965 35.79 39.592 45.67 60.355 78.151

LPG 332.721 371.49 991.293 1641.897 2445.306 2756.834 3307.739 3909.357

Kerosene 1443.635 1586.629 1156.198 603.265 0 0 0 0

Electricity 789.151 974.705 1196.235 1322.167 1608.278 2136.318 3624.817 5782.261

Charcoal 4.028 4.479 4.954 5.135 5.493 6.021 6.873 7.684

Total 2644.65 3019.629 3437.647 3664.369 4156.826 5005.581 7065.237 9846.585

IV. Demand energy final by fuel RURAL


Scenario: BAU

Branch: Demand\Household\RURAL


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Wood 939.511 930.239 919.511 913.577 900.517 877.788 830.781 771.042

Natural Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LPG 32.21 34.004 35.686 36.482 37.972 39.931 42.335 43.439

Kerosene 1384.762 1397.285 1406.89 1410.524 1415.3 1415.748 1396.251 1347.286

Electricity 430.337 458.379 484.396 496.593 519.258 548.598 583.513 559.602

Charcoal 49.655 50.454 51.135 51.429 51.916 52.376 52.319 51.058

Total 2836.475 2870.361 2897.618 2908.604 2924.963 2934.441 2905.199 2772.427


Scenario: KEN

Branch: Demand\Household\RURAL


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Wood 939.511 917.997 880.511 854.567 801.56 719.8 596.856 470.854

Natural Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LPG 32.21 34.306 394.601 750.854 1448.416 1444.921 1372.987 1237.655

Kerosene 1384.762 1386.279 1035.777 687.886 0 0 0 0

Electricity 430.337 501.17 576.935 616.458 698.269 825.765 1076.408 1245.614

Charcoal 49.655 50.193 50.459 49.853 48.422 45.747 40.102 33.201

Total 2836.475 2889.945 2938.284 2959.618 2996.667 3036.234 3086.351 2987.324


Scenario: KED

Branch: Demand\ Household \RURAL


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Wood 939.511 917.997 880.511 854.567 801.56 719.8 596.856 470.854

Natural Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LPG 32.21 34.306 394.601 750.854 1448.416 1444.921 1372.987 1237.655

Kerosene 1384.762 1386.279 1035.777 687.886 0 0 0 0

Electricity 430.337 496.403 566.014 601.906 675.301 787.239 1044.812 1220.522

Charcoal 49.655 50.193 50.341 49.76 48.373 45.747 40.102 33.201

Total 2836.475 2885.179 2927.245 2944.973 2973.651 2997.708 3054.756 2962.232

2.2 Commercial

i. Demand energy final by sector Commercial



Branch: Demand\Commercial


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Hotel 39.574 44.457 49.943 52.935 59.467 70.808 94.714 126.692

Trade 88.585 99.515 111.793 118.489 133.108 158.486 211.985 283.543

Restaurant 419.657 471.433 529.597 561.317 630.571 750.797 1004.239 1343.232

Financial Service 3.645 4.095 4.6 4.876 5.477 6.522 8.723 11.668

Amusement Service 11.836 13.296 14.937 15.832 17.785 21.176 28.324 37.885

Social Service 1547.838 1738.807 1953.336 2070.331 2325.763 2769.198 3703.977 4954.302

Total 2111.136 2371.603 2664.207 2823.78 3172.171 3776.986 5051.961 6757.322



Branch: Demand Commercial.


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Hotel 39.574 46.738 54.572 60.217 72.414 95.495 152.492 252.377

Trade 88.585 102.215 115.861 128.819 157.235 209.369 328.019 542.408

Restaurant 419.657 482.46 546.73 593.574 689.213 856.443 1260.288 1918.967



Social Service 1547.838 1944.202 2415.914 2664.197 3201.001 4307.214 7416.095 12746.796

Total 2111.136 2594.136 3154.985 3471.14 4149.293 5507.701 9220.289 15566.766





2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Hotel 39.574 46.1 52.944 57.874 68.13 86.448 131.25 207.053

Trade 88.585 100.932 112.654 124.16 148.563 190.784 284.834 449.613

Restaurant 419.657 481.07 543.182 588.465 679.875 836.722 1213.986 1820.17



Social Service 1547.838 1897.544 2292.652 2489.389 2891.137 3669.919 5891.58 9534.555

Total 2111.136 2543.872 3022.584 3283.133 3815.144 4818.851 7575.179 12096.556

ii. Demand energy final by fuel Commercial


Scenario: BAU



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Natural Gas 11.611 13.044 14.653 15.531 17.447 20.773 27.786 37.165

LPG 213.692 240.057 269.675 285.827 321.091 382.311 511.365 683.983

Kerosene 820.499 921.73 1035.451 1097.469 1232.872 1467.934 1963.454 2626.244

Electricity 606.163 680.951 764.966 810.784 910.817 1084.478 1450.562 1940.223

Biodiesel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ADO 459.17 515.822 579.462 614.169 689.944 821.49 1098.795 1469.707

Total 2111.136 2371.603 2664.207 2823.78 3172.171 3776.986 5051.961 6757.322


Scenario: KEN



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Natural Gas 11.611 13.675 15.846 16.952 19.084 22.925 38.288 63.228

LPG 213.692 245.573 435.858 637.151 1101.699 2007.463 2899.653 4237.454

Kerosene 820.499 960.107 947.617 844.368 569.817 0 0 0

Electricity 606.163 836.78 1136.223 1310.404 1714.262 2586.151 4989.73 9376.31

Biodiesel 0 0 15.498 33.162 52.145 89.122 193.894 377.955

ADO 459.17 538 603.943 629.104 692.287 802.04 1098.723 1511.819

Total 2111.136 2594.136 3154.985 3471.14 4149.293 5507.701 9220.289 15566.766


Scenario: KED



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Natural Gas 11.611 13.675 15.846 16.952 19.084 22.925 38.288 63.228

LPG 213.692 245.573 435.858 637.151 1101.699 2007.463 2899.653 4237.454

Kerosene 820.499 960.107 947.617 844.368 569.817 0 0 0

Electricity 606.163 786.517 1003.822 1122.397 1380.114 1897.301 3344.621 5906.1

Biodiesel 0 0 15.498 33.162 52.145 89.122 193.894 377.955

ADO 459.17 538 603.943 629.104 692.287 802.04 1098.723 1511.819

Total 2111.136 2543.872 3022.584 3283.133 3815.144 4818.851 7575.179 12096.556

2.3 Industry

i. Demand energy final by sector Industry



Branch: Demand\Industry


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Food 2456.122 2724.082 3021.277 3181.82 3528.953 4121.936 5339.824 6917.554

Textile 70.424 78.107 86.629 91.232 101.185 118.188 153.108 198.347

Wood 304.51 337.732 374.578 394.482 437.52 511.038 662.032 857.639

Paper 76.574 84.928 94.194 99.199 110.021 128.509 166.478 215.667

Chemistry 1901.162 2108.576 2338.62 2462.888 2731.587 3190.585 4133.291 5354.534

Non Metal 1425.576 1581.105 1753.601 1846.784 2048.266 2392.443 3099.326 4015.068

Metal 314.009 348.267 386.263 406.788 451.168 526.979 682.683 884.392

Machinery 50.953 56.512 62.677 66.007 73.209 85.51 110.776 143.506

Other 5.359 5.943 6.592 6.942 7.699 8.993 11.65 15.093

Total 6604.689 7325.253 8124.43 8556.143 9489.608 11084.182 14359.169 18601.799





2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Food 2456.122 2684.122 2911.348 3132.073 3572.448 4356.975 6294.901 9098.808

Textile 70.424 76.833 83.201 89.438 101.849 123.918 178.219 256.406

Wood 304.51 332.081 359.461 386.316 439.748 534.714 768.129 1103.797

Paper 76.574 83.596 90.581 97.414 111.002 135.182 194.795 280.78

Chemistry 1901.162 2079.199 2256.912 2428.396 2772.177 3385.218 4901.028 7099.827

Non Metal 1425.576 1559.827 1693.958 1823.553 2082.483 2544.405 3688.959 5350.685

Metal 314.009 341.831 369.355 396.676 450.702 546.509 781.253 1116.697

Machinery 50.953 55.639 60.313 64.874 73.967 90.159 130.12 187.872

Other 5.359 5.826 6.258 6.72 7.637 9.263 13.185 18.768

Total 6604.689 7218.954 7831.389 8425.46 9612.014 11726.344 16950.589 24513.64




Units: Million Barrel of Oil Equivalents

2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Food 2.456 2.758 3.083 3.371 3.983 5.158 8.284 13.611

Textile 0.07 0.081 0.093 0.103 0.125 0.169 0.29 0.509

Wood 0.305 0.352 0.406 0.451 0.552 0.753 1.31 2.332

Paper 0.077 0.087 0.099 0.109 0.131 0.174 0.292 0.501

Chemistry 1.901 2.11 2.33 2.53 2.946 3.724 5.744 9.012

Non Metal 1.426 1.571 1.72 1.86 2.145 2.667 3.992 6.039

Metal 0.314 0.372 0.44 0.495 0.62 0.877 1.602 2.978

Machinery 0.051 0.058 0.065 0.071 0.084 0.111 0.181 0.303

Other 0.005 0.006 0.008 0.009 0.011 0.016 0.031 0.059

Total 6.605 7.396 8.243 8.999 10.597 13.648 21.725 35.343

ii. Demand energy final by fuel Industry


Scenario: BAU

Branch: Demand\Industri


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Natural Gas 1167.477 1294.847 1436.114 1512.425 1677.429 1959.294 2538.196 3288.144

Nabati Oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LPG 166.883 185.09 205.283 216.191 239.777 280.068 362.818 470.018

Kerosene 480.624 533.06 591.216 622.632 690.561 806.598 1044.919 1353.656

IDO 150.294 166.691 184.876 194.7 215.942 252.227 326.752 423.295

FO 1345.867 1492.7 1655.552 1743.524 1933.74 2258.674 2926.033 3790.573

Electricity 1002.221 1111.562 1232.832 1298.342 1439.989 1681.956 2178.915 2822.708

Coal 17.01 18.865 20.924 22.035 24.439 28.546 36.981 47.907

Biodiesel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ADO 2274.313 2522.438 2797.633 2946.293 3267.73 3816.819 4944.555 6405.497

Total 6604.689 7325.253 8124.43 8556.143 9489.608 11084.182 14359.169 18601.799


Scenario: KEN



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Natural Gas 1167.477 1277.975 1388.474 1494.991 1708.027 2088.264 3138.015 4712.291

Nabati Oil 0 0 0 17.234 35.442 72.221 174.722 507.489

LPG 166.883 182.771 280.254 389.681 646.124 1158.424 1574.785 2131.991

Kerosene 480.624 526.114 489.946 439.611 301.353 0 0 0

IDO 150.294 164.519 174.275 182.833 204.486 241.938 331.692 453.373

FO 1345.867 1473.25 1600.633 1705.852 1933.329 2335.104 3319.576 4567.402

Electricity 1002.221 1086.135 1168.275 1251.61 1415.7 1705.027 2404.021 3387.811

Coal 17.01 18.62 20.23 21.781 24.885 30.425 44.164 64.139

Biodiesel 0 0 72.089 155.239 248.305 433.689 944.296 1828.504

ADO 2274.313 2489.571 2637.214 2766.626 3094.362 3661.254 5019.318 6860.642

Total 6604.689 7218.954 7831.389 8425.46 9612.014 11726.344 16950.589 24513.64


Scenario: KED



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Natural Gas 1167.477 1277.975 1388.474 1494.991 1708.027 2088.264 3138.015 4712.291

Nabati Oil 0 0 0 17.234 35.442 72.221 174.722 507.489

LPG 166.883 182.771 280.254 389.681 646.124 1158.424 1574.785 2131.991

Kerosene 480.624 526.114 489.946 439.611 301.353 0 0 0

IDO 150.294 164.519 174.275 182.833 204.486 241.938 331.692 453.373

FO 1345.867 1473.25 1600.633 1705.852 1933.329 2335.104 3319.576 4567.402

Electricity 1002.221 1263.098 1579.98 1825.376 2401.086 3626.583 7178.674 14216.781

Coal 17.01 18.62 20.23 21.781 24.885 30.425 44.164 64.139

Biodiesel 0 0 72.089 155.239 248.305 433.689 944.296 1828.504

ADO 2274.313 2489.571 2637.214 2766.626 3094.362 3661.254 5019.318 6860.642

Total 6604.689 7395.917 8243.094 8999.226 10597.4 13647.9 21725.242 35342.611

2.4 Transportation

i. Demand energy final by fuel Transportation



Branch: Demand\Transportation


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Motor cycle 2178.297 2962.194 3717.295 4036.466 4656.241 5456.914 6331.83 7002.612

Bus 464.724 484.24 504.575 515.06 536.689 570.847 632.677 701.204

Truck 3347.624 3829.133 4359.054 4642.582 5247.281 6248.656 8160.925 10340.436

Train 26.473 27.454 28.471 28.994 30.069 31.756 34.78 38.093

Ferry 94.392 101.854 109.907 114.169 123.195 138.09 167.023 202.018

Ship 11.247 12.168 13.165 13.693 14.815 16.672 20.298 24.714

Aeroplane 767.352 806.041 859.951 902.314 995.837 1162.38 1536.188 2099.17

cars 2894.548 3366.846 3896.383 4183.623 4804.79 5857.287 7941.892 10426.66

Total 9784.657 11589.93 13488.8 14436.902 16408.917 19482.601 24825.613 30834.907





2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Motor cycle 2178.297 3058.286 3998.783 4435.823 5344.476 6638.913 8250.185 9197.324

Bus 464.724 484.104 503.774 513.79 533.774 563.886 616.912 675.002

Truck 3347.624 3874.437 4486.84 4828.694 5586.996 6905.648 9735.569 13446.922

Train 26.473 27.5 28.581 29.143 30.307 32.136 35.558 39.529

Ferry 94.392 101.333 108.329 113.167 123.194 137.532 165.412 199.767

Ship 11.247 12.29 13.516 14.198 15.652 18.169 23.753 31.702

Aeroplane 767.352 847.908 952.228 1027.959 1201.945 1530.504 2378.246 3929.919

cars 2894.548 3403.875 3999.377 4339.659 5101.112 6432.239 9344.541 13255.412

Total 9784.657 11809.733 14091.427 15302.432 17937.455 22259.027 30550.175 40775.576





2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Motor cycle 2178.297 3058.286 3998.783 4435.823 5344.476 6638.913 8250.185 9197.324

Bus 464.724 484.104 503.774 513.79 533.774 563.886 616.912 675.002

Truck 3347.624 3874.437 4486.84 4828.694 5586.996 6905.648 9735.569 13446.922

Train 26.473 27.5 28.581 29.143 30.307 32.136 35.558 39.529

Ferry 94.392 101.333 108.329 113.167 123.194 137.532 165.412 199.767

Ship 11.247 12.29 13.516 14.198 15.652 18.169 23.753 31.702

Aeroplane 767.352 847.908 952.228 1027.959 1201.945 1530.504 2378.246 3929.919

cars 2894.548 3403.875 3999.377 4339.659 5101.112 6432.239 9344.541 13255.412

Total 9784.657 11809.733 14091.427 15302.432 17937.455 22259.027 30550.175 40775.576

ii. Demand energy final by fuel Transportation


Scenario: BAU



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Nabati Oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kerosene 0.46 0.496 0.535 0.556 0.6 0.673 0.814 0.984

Gasoline 5429.144 6730.997 8064.928 8697.33 9992.864 11934.106 15054.522 18382.853

FO 0.584 0.632 0.684 0.711 0.769 0.866 1.054 1.283

Bioetanol 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Biodiesel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Avtur 767.018 805.691 859.577 901.922 995.405 1161.875 1535.52 2098.258

Avgas 0.333 0.35 0.374 0.392 0.433 0.505 0.668 0.912

ADO 3587.118 4051.763 4562.702 4835.991 5418.846 6384.577 8233.036 10350.616

Total 9784.657 11589.93 13488.8 14436.902 16408.917 19482.601 24825.613 30834.907


Scenario: KEN



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Nabati Oil 0 0.025 0.081 0.113 0.13 0.159 0.227 0.328

Kerosene 0.46 0.355 0.383 0.398 0.429 0.479 0.576 0.696

Gasoline 5429.144 6870.092 8259.976 8938.276 10527.179 13017.062 17345.954 21805.049

FO 0.584 0.635 0.693 0.724 0.795 0.893 1.104 1.388

Bioetanol 0 2.05 214.356 342.408 485.978 742.838 1192.059 1915.795

Biodiesel 0 1.309 45.91 146.767 236.799 414.909 1117.729 2300.531

Avtur 767.018 847.546 951.829 1027.532 1201.453 1529.892 2377.326 3928.438

Avgas 0.333 0.361 0.399 0.427 0.491 0.612 0.921 1.48

ADO 3587.118 4087.359 4617.802 4845.787 5484.202 6552.184 8514.279 10821.87

Total 9784.657 11809.733 14091.427 15302.432 17937.455 22259.027 30550.175 40775.576


Scenario: KED



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Nabati Oil 0 0.025 0.081 0.113 0.13 0.159 0.227 0.328

Kerosene 0.46 0.355 0.383 0.398 0.429 0.479 0.576 0.696

Gasoline 5429.144 6870.092 8259.976 8938.276 10527.179 13017.062 17345.954 21805.049

FO 0.584 0.635 0.693 0.724 0.795 0.893 1.104 1.388

Bioetanol 0 2.05 214.356 342.408 485.978 742.838 1192.059 1915.795

Biodiesel 0 1.309 45.91 146.767 236.799 414.909 1117.729 2300.531

Avtur 767.018 847.546 951.829 1027.532 1201.453 1529.892 2377.326 3928.438

Avgas 0.333 0.361 0.399 0.427 0.491 0.612 0.921 1.48

ADO 3587.118 4087.359 4617.802 4845.787 5484.202 6552.184 8514.279 10821.87

Total 9784.657 11809.733 14091.427 15302.432 17937.455 22259.027 30550.175 40775.576


Scenario: KED



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Nabati Oil 0 0.025 0.081 0.113 0.13 0.159 0.227 0.328

Kerosene 0.46 0.355 0.383 0.398 0.429 0.479 0.576 0.696

Gasoline 5429.144 6870.092 8259.976 8938.276 10527.179 13017.062 17345.954 21805.049

FO 0.584 0.635 0.693 0.724 0.795 0.893 1.104 1.388

Bioetanol 0 2.05 214.356 342.408 485.978 742.838 1192.059 1915.795

Biodiesel 0 1.309 45.91 146.767 236.799 414.909 1117.729 2300.531

Avtur 767.018 847.546 951.829 1027.532 1201.453 1529.892 2377.326 3928.438

Avgas 0.333 0.361 0.399 0.427 0.491 0.612 0.921 1.48

ADO 3587.118 4087.359 4617.802 4845.787 5484.202 6552.184 8514.279 10821.87

Total 9784.657 11809.733 14091.427 15302.432 17937.455 22259.027 30550.175 40775.576

2.5 Others

i. Demand energy final by sector Others



Branch: Demand\Lainnya


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Mining 187.759 203.133 219.767 228.588 247.306 278.295 338.812 412.488

Construction 845.047 914.244 989.107 1028.807 1113.051 1252.526 1524.893 1856.488

Agriculture 499.304 540.189 584.423 607.88 657.656 740.066 900.997 1096.922

Total 1532.11 1657.567 1793.297 1865.274 2018.012 2270.887 2764.702 3365.899



Branch: Demand\Others


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Mining 187.759 212.933 238.104 252.927 282.575 334.16 457.529 635.843

Construction 845.047 921.101 984.683 1030.609 1115.642 1219.144 1533.905 1969.325

Agriculture 499.304 569.549 640.575 683.415 770.137 922.226 1287.183 1818.059

Total 1532.11 1703.583 1863.362 1966.951 2168.353 2475.53 3278.617 4423.228



Branch: Demand\Lainnya


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Mining 187.759 212.933 238.104 252.927 282.575 334.16 457.529 635.843

Construction 845.047 921.101 984.683 1030.609 1115.642 1219.144 1533.905 1969.325

Agriculture 499.304 569.549 640.575 683.415 770.137 922.226 1287.183 1818.059

Total 1532.11 1703.583 1863.362 1966.951 2168.353 2475.53 3278.617 4423.228

ii. Demand energy final by fuel Others


Scenario: BAU



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Nabati Oil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

LPG 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kerosene 248.38 268.719 290.723 302.391 327.153 368.148 448.203 545.667

Gasoline 318.412 344.485 372.693 387.652 419.395 471.949 574.576 699.52

FO 69.644 75.347 81.516 84.788 91.731 103.226 125.673 153.001

Bioetanol 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Biodiesel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ADO 895.674 969.017 1048.364 1090.443 1179.734 1327.565 1616.25 1967.711

Total 1532.11 1657.567 1793.297 1865.274 2018.012 2270.887 2764.702 3365.899


Scenario: KEN



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Nabati Oil 0 0 0 0.938 1.887 3.718 8.485 23.585

LPG 0 3.723 44.702 94.733 210.61 397.497 563.775 805.529

Kerosene 248.38 272.07 251.96 222.711 148.851 0 0 0

Gasoline 318.412 344.472 362.05 371.94 390.492 419.886 490.593 581.022

FO 69.644 78.981 88.319 92.876 102.926 120.231 161.224 212.263

Bioetanol 0 0.88 8.005 17.487 35.351 65.636 134.702 241.844

Biodiesel 0 0.01 5.86 24.558 53.778 142.415 346.272 736.628

ADO 895.674 1003.447 1102.466 1141.708 1224.458 1326.146 1573.565 1822.357

Total 1532.11 1703.583 1863.362 1966.951 2168.353 2475.53 3278.617 4423.228


Scenario: KED



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Nabati Oil 0 0 0 0.938 1.887 3.718 8.485 23.585

LPG 0 3.723 44.702 94.733 210.61 397.497 563.775 805.529

Kerosene 248.38 272.07 251.96 222.711 148.851 0 0 0

Gasoline 318.412 344.472 362.05 371.94 390.492 419.886 490.593 581.022

FO 69.644 78.981 88.319 92.876 102.926 120.231 161.224 212.263

Bioetanol 0 0.88 8.005 17.487 35.351 65.636 134.702 241.844

Biodiesel 0 0.01 5.86 24.558 53.778 142.415 346.272 736.628

ADO 895.674 1003.447 1102.466 1141.708 1224.458 1326.146 1573.565 1822.357

Total 1532.11 1703.583 1863.362 1966.951 2168.353 2475.53 3278.617 4423.228

3 Supply with process and Fuel

i. Supply with process

Transformation Results: Outputs


Branch: Transformation


2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Transmisi dan Distribustion 3305.43 3609.67 3940.25 4116.18 4491.09 5116.99 6360.11 7790.18

Power Plant 3888.7 3551.32 4470.99 4739.48 5177.04 5750.29 6465.18 6584.15

Oil Plant 882.89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas Mining 3767.3 1562.71 1872.8 2010.47 2305.87 2314.18 2314.18 2314.18

Oil Mining 1339.18 1339.37 1339.37 1339.37 1339.37 1339.37 1339.37 1339.37

Charcoal Plant 53.69 54.86 55.94 56.44 57.37 58.53 59.78 60.02

Wood Plant 1044.01 1041.82 1035.65 1031.98 1023.42 1007.34 971.03 921.35

Coal Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Biodiesel Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 14281.2 11159.74 12715 13293.92 14394.16 15586.68 17509.65 19009.23





2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025


Power Plant 3888.7 4059.63 5094.04 5705.03 6880.27 8954.56 12824.92 13088.29

Oil Plant 882.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Oil Mining 1339.18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Charcoal Plant 53.69 53.71 53.71 53.71 53.71 51.77 46.98 40.89

Wood Plant 1044.01 1028.95 994.6 969.76 918.79 837.45 713.96 584.96

Coal Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Biodiesel Plant 0 10.24 159.27 453.3 986.99 1977.3 4152.38 7348.18

Total 14281.2 10571.18 12661.96 14058.25 16827.92 21970.5 32734.45 43764.82





2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025


Power Plant 3888.71 4085.99 5266.46 6059.27 7605.47 10258.01 13065.08 13088.29

Oil Plant 882.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


Oil Mining 1339.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Charcoal Plant 53.69 53.71 53.71 53.71 53.71 51.77 46.98 40.89

Wood Plant 1044.01 1028.94 994.60 969.77 918.80 837.48 713.98 584.96

Coal Mining 0.00 1.32 135.57 347.61 570.09 1041.98 2526.10 5028.68

Total 14281.20 10546.67 12767.48 14375.87 17492.75 23316.54 34336.65 43292.97

ii. Supply with fuel


Scenario: BAU



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Non BBM 180.11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kerosene 296.83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ADO 151.86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Crude Oil 1339.18 1339.37 1339.37 1339.37 1339.37 1339.37 1339.37 1339.37

FO 67.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Electricity 7194.13 7160.99 8411.25 8855.66 9668.13 10867.28 12825.3 14374.33

LPG 186.82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Wood 1044.01 1041.82 1035.65 1031.98 1023.42 1007.34 971.03 921.35

Natural Gas 3767.3 1562.71 1872.8 2010.47 2305.87 2314.18 2314.18 2314.18

Biodiesel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Batubara 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Charcoal 53.69 54.86 55.94 56.44 57.37 58.53 59.78 60.02

Total 14281.2 11159.74 12715 13293.92 14394.16 15586.68 17509.65 19009.23


Scenario: KEN



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Non BBM 180.11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kerosene 296.83 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ADO 151.86 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Crude Oil 1339.18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FO 67.28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Electricity 7194.13 7945.2 9672.21 10715.06 12848.91 16789.81 25506.96 33476.62

LPG 186.82 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Wood 1044.01 1028.95 994.6 969.76 918.79 837.45 713.96 584.96

Natural Gas 3767.3 1533.07 1782.17 1866.42 2019.51 2314.18 2314.18 2314.18

Biodiesel 0 10.24 159.27 453.3 986.99 1977.3 4152.38 7348.18

Batubara 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Charcoal 53.69 53.71 53.71 53.71 53.71 51.77 46.98 40.89

Total 14281.2 10571.18 12661.96 14058.25 16827.92 21970.5 32734.45 43764.82


Scenario: KED



2005 2007 2009 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Non BBM 180.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Kerosene 296.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

ADO 151.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Crude Oil 1339.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

FO 67.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Electricity 7194.13 8084.12 10089.93 11408.53 14147.67 19182.86 28735.42 35324.27

LPG 186.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Wood 1044.01 1028.94 994.60 969.77 918.80 837.48 713.98 584.96

Natural Gas 3767.30 1378.57 1493.67 1596.25 1802.48 2202.45 2314.18 2314.18

Biodiesel 0.00 1.32 135.57 347.61 570.09 1041.98 2526.10 5028.68

Charcoal 53.69 53.71 53.71 53.71 53.71 51.77 46.98 40.89

Total 14281.20 10546.67 12767.48 14375.87 17492.75 23316.54 34336.65 43292.97

94

iii. Energy balance for 2025.

Scenario: BAU, Year: 2025 (Thousand Barrel of Oil Equivalent)

LPG Geothermal Avgas Coal Charcoal Wood Natural Gas Crude Oil Avtur

Production 0 117.7 0 5641.59 0 921.35 2361.41 1366.7 0

Imports 1975.93 0 0.91 0 0 0 2809.62 0 2098.26

Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1339.37 0

Total Primary Supply 1975.93 117.7 0.91 5641.59 0 921.35 5171.02 27.33 2098.26

Biodiesel Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Wood Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Charcoal Plant 0 0 0 0 60.02 -66.02 0 0 0

Oil Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -27.33 0

Natural Gas Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 -47.23 0 0

Oil Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Power Plant 0 -117.7 0 -5593.69 0 0 -1733.32 0 0

Transmission and

Distribution 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Transformation 0 -117.7 0 -5593.69 60.02 -66.02 -1780.54 -27.33 0

Household 821.93 0 0 0 60.02 855.33 65.17 0 0

Commercial 683.98 0 0 0 0 0 37.16 0 0

Industry 470.02 0 0 47.91 0 0 3288.14 0 0

Transportation 0 0 0.91 0 0 0 0 0 2098.26

Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Demand 1975.93 0 0.91 47.91 60.02 855.33 3390.48 0 2098.26

95

Gasoline Kerosene ADO IDO FO Electricity Hydro power Total

Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 557.79 10966.53

Imports 19082.37 8780.25 29248.51 423.3 4522.63 2071.6 0 71013.37

Exports 0 0 0 0 0 -477.42 0 -1816.78

Total Primary Supply 19082.37 8780.25 29248.51 423.3 4522.63 1594.19 557.79 80163.12

Biodiesel Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Wood Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Charcoal Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -6

Oil Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -27.33

Natural Gas Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -47.23

Oil Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Power Plant 0 0 -9054.98 0 -577.77 6584.15 -557.79 -11051.09

Transmission and

Distribution 0 0 0 0 0 -865.58 0 -865.58

Total Transformation 0 0 -9054.98 0 -577.77 5718.57 -557.79 -11997.23

Household 0 4253.69 0 0 0 2549.83 0 8605.97

Commercial 0 2626.24 1469.71 0 0 1940.22 0 6757.32

Industry 0 1353.66 6405.5 423.3 3790.57 2822.71 0 18601.8

Transportation 18382.85 0.98 10350.62 0 1.28 0 0 30834.91

Others 699.52 545.67 1967.71 0 153 0 0 3365.9

Total Demand 19082.37 8780.25 20193.53 423.3 3944.86 7312.76 0 68165.89

96

Scenario: KEN, Year: 2025 (Thousand Barrel of Oil Equivalent)

LPG Geothermal Avgas Coal Charcoal Wood Natural Gas Avtur Gasoline Kerosene ADO

Production 0 2512.441 0 0 0 584.961 2361.405 0 0 0 0

Imports 12311.724 0 1.48 8763.281 0 0 7415.41 3928.438 22386.071 0.696 29434.957

Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Primary Supply 12311.724 2512.441 1.48 8763.281 0 584.961 9776.815 3928.438 22386.071 0.696 29434.957

Biodiesel Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Wood Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Charcoal Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Oil Mining 0 0 0 0 40.885 -44.974 0 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Oil Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 -47.228 0 0 0 0

Power Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Transmission and

Distribution 0 -2512.441 0 -8699.142 0 0 -4865.723 0 0 0 -8418.269

Total Transformation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Household 0 -2512.441 0 -8699.142 40.885 -44.974 -4912.952 0 0 0 -8418.269

Commercial 5136.75 0 0 0 40.885 539.987 88.344 0 0 0 0

Industry 4237.454 0 0 0 0 0 63.228 0 0 0 1511.819

Transportation 2131.991 0 0 64.139 0 0 4712.291 0 0 0 6860.642

Others 0 0 1.48 0 0 0 0 3928.438 21805.049 0.696 10821.87

Total Demand 805.529 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 581.022 0 1822.357

Total Demand 12311.724 0 1.48 64.139 40.885 539.987 4863.863 3928.438 22386.071 0.696 21016.688

97

IDO FO Electricity Hydro Power Bioetanol Biodiesel Palm oil Nabati Oil Total

Production 0 0 0 1032.947 0 0 7718.681 0 14210.435

Imports 453.373 5301.048 9565.4 0 2157.64 0 0 589.18 102308.697

Exports 0 0 -477.415 0 0 0 0 0 -477.415

Total Primary Supply 453.373 5301.048 9087.985 1032.947 2157.64 0 7718.681 589.18 116041.717

Biodiesel Plant 0 0 0 0 0 7348.185 -7718.681 0 -370.497

Wood Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Charcoal Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Oil Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4.088

Natural Gas Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Oil Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -47.228

Power Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Transmission and

Distribution 0 -519.995 13088.292 -1032.947 0 -2104.567 0 -57.777 -15122.57

Total Transformation 0 0 -2265.369 0 0 0 0 0 -2265.369

Household 0 -519.995 10822.923 -1032.947 0 5243.617 -7718.681 -57.777 -17809.752

Commercial 0 0 7146.787 0 0 0 0 0 12952.754

Industry 0 0 9376.31 0 0 377.955 0 0 15566.766

Transportation 453.373 4567.402 3387.811 0 0 1828.504 0 507.489 24513.64

Others 0 1.388 0 0 1915.795 2300.531 0 0.328 40775.576

Total Demand 0 212.263 0 0 241.844 736.628 0 23.585 4423.228

Total Demand 453.373 4781.053 19910.908 0 2157.64 5243.617 0 531.402 98231.965

98

Scenario: KED, Year: 2025 (Thousand Barrel of Oil Equivalent)

LPG Geothermal Avgas Coal Charcoal Wood Natural Gas Avtur Gasoline Kerosene ADO

Production 0 2512.44 0 8763.28 0 584.96 2361.41 0 0 0 0

Imports 11796.77 0 1.48 0 0 0 5730.83 3928.44 22418.8 525.91 31754.46

Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Primary Supply 11796.77 2512.44 1.48 8763.28 0 584.96 8092.24 3928.44 22418.8 525.91 31754.46

Biodiesel Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Wood Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Charcoal Plant 0 0 0 0 40.89 -44.97 0 0 0 0 0

Oil Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 -47.23 0 0 0 0

Oil Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Power Plant 0 -2512.44 0 -8699.14 0 0 -3191.34 0 0 0 -10522.84

Transmission and

Distribution 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Transformation 0 -2512.44 0 -8699.14 40.89 -44.97 -3238.57 0 0 0 -10522.84

Household 5147.01 0 0 0 40.89 539.99 78.15 0 0 0 0

Commercial 4237.45 0 0 0 0 0 63.23 0 0 0 1511.82

Industry 2131.99 0 0 64.14 0 0 4712.29 0 0 0 6860.64

Transportation 0 0 1.48 0 0 0 0 3928.44 21805.05 0.7 10821.87

Others 280.31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 613.75 525.22 2037.29

Total Demand 11796.77 0 1.48 64.14 40.89 539.99 4853.67 3928.44 22418.8 525.91 21231.62

99

IDO FO Electricity Hydro Power Bioetanol Biodiesel Palm oil Nabati Oil Total

Production 0 0 0 1032.95 0 0 5282.23 0 20537.26

Imports 453.37 7033.21 18438.78 0 2124.91 0 0 531.4 104738.37

Exports 0 0 -477.42 0 0 0 0 0 -477.42

Total Primary Supply 453.37 7033.21 17961.37 1032.95 2124.91 0 5282.23 531.4 124798.22

Biodiesel Plant 0 0 0 0 0 5028.68 -5282.23 0 -253.55

Wood Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Charcoal Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4.09

Oil Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas Mining 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -47.23

Oil Plant 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Power Plant 0 -2252.16 13088.29 -1032.95 0 0 0 0 -15122.57

Transmission and

Distribution 0 0 -3924 0 0 0 0 0 -3924

Total Transformation 0 -2252.16 9164.3 -1032.95 0 5028.68 -5282.23 0 -19351.43

Household 0 0 7002.78 0 0 0 0 0 12808.82

Commercial 0 0 5906.1 0 0 377.95 0 0 12096.56

Industry 453.37 4567.4 14216.78 0 0 1828.5 0 507.49 35342.61

Transportation 0 1.39 0 0 1915.8 2300.53 0 0.33 40775.58

Others 0 212.26 0 0 209.12 521.69 0 23.58 4423.23

Total Demand 453.37 4781.05 27125.66 0 2124.91 5028.68 0 531.4 105446.79

energy outlook - north sumatra

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