ENERGY OUTLOOK OF

THAILAND

Piyasvasti Amranand

Kasikorn Asset ManagementThai-Japanese Association

Dusit Thani Hotel, Bangkok30 August 2005

HIGH WORLD PRICE OF OIL HAS SEVERE

IMPACT ON THAI ECONOMY WHETHER

RETAIL PRICES ARE ADJUSTED OR NOT

The proportion of net commercial energy import (including use as

raw materials) rose from 53.7% in 2000 to 59.4% in 2004

NET ENERGY IMPORT

฿0

฿100,000

฿200,000

฿300,000

฿400,000

฿500,000

฿600,000

฿700,000

฿800,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Milli

on

Ba

ht

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

%

VALUE OF NET ENERGY IMPORT (LHS) NET ENERGY IMPORT TO GDP (RHS)

SHORTAGE OF INFRASTRUCTURE

SERVICES IS DEVELOPINGThe reserve margin of the power system has

fallen rapidly during the past two years as

power demand has increased continuously.

Natural gas pipeline has also reached full

capacity. This has resulted in significant rise in

fuel oil use in power generation

RESERVE MARGIN OF POWER SYSTEM (%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

USE OF FUEL OIL IN POWER GENERATION

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Milllio

n Litre

s

SHORTAGE OF WATER IN THE EASTERN REGION ALSO RESULTS

FROM INSUFFICIENT INVESTMENTFactories in RayongWATER LEVELS IN DOK KRAI & NONG PLALAI RESERVOIRS

0

50

100

150

200

250

Millio

n Cub

ic Me

tres

THE CONSEQUENCES ARE ECONOMIC

SLOW DOWN AND RE-EMERGENCE OF

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITGDP GROWTH (% YoY)

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2001-Q1

2001-Q2

2001-Q3

2001-Q4

2002-Q1

2002-Q2

2002-Q3

2002-Q4

2003-Q1

2003-Q2

2003-Q3

2003-Q4

2004-Q1

2004-Q2

2004-Q3

2004-Q4

2005-Q1

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

GDP Manufacturing Agriculture (RHS) Other Non Agriculture

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Trade balance

Current account balance

Source: BoT

Mil.US$ Mil.US$Trade Balance and Current Account Balance

WHAT SHOULD WE DO?• Promote energy efficiency and allow energy prices to

reflect their true economic costs

• Encourage diversification of energy supplies and oil substitution in certain sectors

• Promote the use of appropriate types of renewable energy

• Prepare for new energy technology for the long term

• Ensure sufficient investment in energy supplies in an efficient and cost effective manner to satisfy growing demand

• Ensure efficient management of the energy sector: competition, deregulation and privatization

• Ensure appropriate and sustainable financing of energy investment: long term savings from domestic sources

THE WORLD STILL HAS PLENTY OF OIL

BUT IT IS NOT BEING DEVELOPED FAST

ENOUGH

• World proved crude oil reserve (P1) is estimated to be around 1,051-1,266 billion barrels

• If undiscovered oil and recoverable reserves from existing sources due to improvement in technology are included, total Ultimate Recoverable Resources should be around 2,628 billion barrels

• 60 % of world oil reserve is located in 5 countries in the Middle East• Proportion of crude oil production by OPEC Middle Eastern countries is

expected to increase from 29% in 2004 to 43% in 2030

PROVED OIL RESERVES IN 2003

262.7130.7

115.097.896.5

69.136.034.330.7

23.716.916.015.211.310.610.1

78.0

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Saudi ArabiaIranIraqUAE

KuwaitVenezuela

RussiaLibya

NigeriaUSA

ChinaCanadaMexicoQatar

AlgeriaBrazil

Norway

Thousand Million Barrels

CRUDE OIL RESERVES TO PRODUCTION RATIO (YEARS)

92.9

73.3

88.1

12.2

41.5

17.1

33.2

16.6

41.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Middle East

North America

S. & C.-America

Europe & Eurasia

Africa

Asia Pacific

World

WORLD OIL DEMAND HAS BEEN INCREASING

RAPIDLY PARTICULARLY USA AND CHINA

•World oil consumption rose by 2.89 mbd in 2004 or 3.6%•China’s oil demand rose by 15.4% in 2004 accounting for 30% of increase in world consumption•The rise in demand is due to rapid world economic growth•Although demand growth in 2005 has slowed down, it still increases by 1.58 mbd or 1.9%

GROWTH IN OIL DEMAND

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2002 2003 2004 2005

Source: IEA

Million Barrels

/Day

OECD Pacific North America OECD Europe China Others

FALLING OPEC’S SPARE CAPACITY

CAUSES OIL PRICE TO CONTINUOUSLY

ESCALATEOPEC Spare Capacity and Oil Price

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Source: Spare capacity from IEA

Mil

lio

n B

arr

els

/Day

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

US

$/Barr

el

OPEC Spare Capacity Brent

Any short term supply disruption could cause “price spike”

SPECULATION ONLY PLAYS A SECONDARY

ROLE IN OIL PRICE RISE

•“Non-Commercial” consist of financial institutions, banks, insurance companies, mutual funds, private funds, pension funds and hedge funds•During the period March-October 2004, crude oil price rose from $37 per barrel to $55, but net long position of Non-Commercial traders significantly declined

Oil Price vs. Net Open Interest Position of Non-Commercial in NYMEX (Futures+Options)

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05

Source: COT, CFTC

Th

ou

san

d B

arr

ela

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

(Jan. 2003 - 23 August 2005)

US

$/Barr

el

Reportable Net Long Position WTI

SPARE REFINING CAPACITY HAS ALSO

SIGNIFICANTLY DECLINED AND NOT

MUCH NEW CAPACITY IS EXPECTED IN

NEXT 2 YEARS

GROSS REFINING MARGIN AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005-8M

2006

GR

M U

S$/B

BL

0.95

0.97

0.99

1.01

1.03

1.05

1.07

1.09

1.11

1.13

GRM (Complex) GRM (Simple) Oil Consumption/Refining Capacity in Asia Pacific

ESTIMATES OF OIL PRODUCTION PEAK

VARIES FROM 2006 TO 2037

Source : Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management โดย R.L. Hirsch et al and EIA

Projected Date

Source Projection

2006-7 Bakhitari

2007-9 Simmons

After 2007 Skrebowski

Before 2009 Deffeyes

Before 2010 Goodstein

Around 2010 Campbell

After 2010 WEC

2010-20 Laherre

2016 EIA (Nominal)

After 2020 CERA

2025 or later

Shell

No visible peak

Lynch

• 70% of current crude oil production is from fields which are at least 30 years old

• 20% of current crude oil production comes from 14 major sources with average age of over 50 years

• Oil production from many important fields have passed their peaks

• New discoveries have declined and new discoveries during the past 20 years amount to less than half the level of consumption

• Crude oil reserve estimates are exaggerated due to political reasons

DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SUPPLIES

COULD TAKE MANY YEARS• New technologies have

increased drilling success rate from 25% during 1971-76 to 40% at present

• New sources of oil production include Deep Sea (Africa, Brazil, Gulf of Mexico), Russia, and Caspian region

• There is also enormous potential in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, Iran. The main problem is lack of investment: very little investment and exploration activities over the past 10 years and reluctance to allow foreign investment

CHANGE IN NON-OPEC CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION

-0.24-0.35

-0.18

0

0.42

0.59

0.04

0.23 0.230.33

0.54

0.940.89

0.09

0.37

0.09 0.050.080.110.03

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

2003 2004 2005 2006

Source: IEA

Million

Barrel

a/Da

y

OECD Former USSR Latin America Africa Other Non OPEC

REAL PRICE OF OIL IS STILL LOWER

THAN LEVEL DURING 1979-85

•Price of Brent during period 1979-85 adjusted for inflation would be equivalent to oil price of $45-76 per barrel today. Thus one may not see any serious conservation effort until oil price reaches $70.

•High oil price should eventually cause economic slow down thereby lowering oil consumption as well as encourage energy efficiency and oil substitution. The process could take many years

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0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

เหร�ย

ญส

หร

�ฐต่

!อบ

าเร

ลี่

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

%

ราคาน้ำามั�น้ำด บใน้ำราคาป" 2003 กัารใช้�น้ำามั�น้ำของโลี่กั

PROVED NATURAL GAS RESERVES IN 2003

47.0026.69

25.776.686.06

5.004.524.15

3.112.902.562.552.462.411.901.851.821.761.671.661.56

5.23

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

RussiaIran

QatarSaudi Arabia

UAEUSA

NigeriaAlgeria

VenezuelaIraq

TurkmenistaIndonesiaAustraliaNorwayMalaysia

KazakhstanUzbekistan

ChinaEgypt

NetherlandsCanadaKuwait

Trillion Cubic Metres

THERE ARE STILL OTHER SOURCES OF PETROLEUM

Source: BP

•Extra heavy crude, oil shale, tar sands, bitumen: estimated reserves of 7 trillion barrels with expected oil production of 3.8 mbd in 2010 and 10.1 mbd in 2030 (IEA)•LNG, Gas to Liquid – GTL (production to rise from 0.4 mbd in 2010 to 2.4 mbd in 2030)

COAL STILL HAS FUTURE

DESPITE GLOBAL WARMINGPROVED COAL RESERVES IN 2003

249,994

157,010

114,500

84,396

82,090

49,520

34,153

34,000

22,345

22,160

11,929

66,000

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

USARussiaChinaIndia

AustraliaGermany

South AfricaUkraine

KazakhstanOther

PolandBrazil

Million

Ton

s

Source: BP

Clean coal technology eg. Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle ( IGCC), “Zero-Emission” (FutureGen)

Diesel consumption during July-August 2005 fell

by 5.7% from the same period of previous year

COST REFLECTIVE ENERGY PRICE IS THE BEST WAY OF CONSERVING

ENERGYGasoline Sale and Retail Price

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05

Mill

ion

Litre

s10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

Baht

/Litr

e

Gasoline Sale (3-month ma) Retail Gasoline Price

Diesel Sale and Retail Price

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05

Mill

ion

Litre

s

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Baht

/Litr

e

Diesel Sale (3-month ma) Retail Diesel Price

DIESEL PRICE INCREASE SHOULD HAVE

ONE TIME IMPACT ON CPI OVER 2-3

MONTH PERIOD AFTER PRICE

ADJUSTMENT

•Oil price adjustment of 33.87% in September 1990 caused CPI during Q4 of 1990 to rise above normal level by 1.8%•Oil price adjustment during March-July 2005 is expected to increase CPI by 3% above normal level over 6 month period

1990 2005

CHANGE IN CPI FROM PREVIOUS MONTH (%)

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

%

Average 1989-94 1990

CHANGE IN CPI FROM PREVIOUS MONTH (%)

-0.40%-0.20%0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%1.40%1.60%1.80%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

average 99-03 2005 2004

ALTHOUGH THE GOVERNMENT HAS CEASED

SUBSIDISATION OF GASOLINE AND DIESEL

PRICES, IT HAS RESORTED TO INTERVENTION

THROUGH GOVERNMENT OWNED OIL

COMPANIES

GASOLINE PRICES

50

55

60

65

70

75

2-May-2005

12-May-2005

22-May-2005

1-Jun-2005

11-Jun-2005

21-Jun-2005

1-Jul-2005

11-Jul-2005

21-Jul-2005

31-Jul-2005

10-Aug-2005

20-Aug-2005

US$/Barrel

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

Baht/L

itre

Spot Price of ULG 95 In Singapore (LHS) Retail price of ULG 95 (RHS)

199

Natural Gas17.1%

อ#�น้ำๆ1.6%

Hydro17.5%

Coal38.1%

Oil8.5%

Nuclear17.2%

COAL IS STILL THE MOST IMPORTANT SOURCE OF FUEL FOR POWER GENERATION IN THE WORLFD

(THAILAND: 12-15%)

Others 1.6%

% of NG in Power Generation VS R/ P Ratio in 1999

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

R/P Ratio

% o

f N

G in

Po

we

r G

ene

ration

Thailand 2001

Thailand 1999

Indonesia

Malaysia

Brunei

Europe

S.&C. America

N. AmericaTotal World

VietnamAfrica

Former Soviet Union

Russian Federation

Australia

ChinaIndia

Mexico

GermanyCanada

ItalyUK

USA

Hong Kong

New Zealand

Japan

Singapore

S.Korea

DEPENDENCE OF NATURAL GAS IN POWER GENERATION IN THAILAND IS

VERY HIGH

A LARGE PORTION OF ENERGY

SOURCES FOR NEW CAPACITY IS

UNSPECIFIEDEGAT GENERATION BY ENERGY SOURCES

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GW

h

Gas, Coal, Oil & Others Laos Unspecified Energy Sources

However, 70% of new capacity during the period 2005-

2015 is expected to be natural gas fired and 20% from

projects in neighboring countries. New sources of gas

supply include LNG from 2011

NUCLEAR IS AN OPTION WHICH SHOULD

BE SERIOUSLY EXPLORED

Use of Nuclear Energy

Source: BP

Countries with expanding nuclear capacity

Countries closing down nuclear power plants

Countries in process of making decision

China, South Korea, Japan, India, France, Finland

Germany, Belgium, Sweden

USA, Canada, UK, Czech, Turkey

Technology

Levelized Power Price at Different IRR

(Baht/kWh)

6% 8 %

1

0

%11

%

Solar Cell 30( .16

15.68

17

18

1

8.6

6

19

39

Wind 15( . MW)36.5

3.94

4 .2

3

4.37

Biomass 6( MW)26.0

2.63

2.7

2

2.76

Biogas (pig farms with 12

000 pigs)26.0

2.60

2.6

1

2.68

Gasifier 120( k)

28.0

2.88

2.9

5

2.98

Municipal waste ( 100 ton/day)        

- Digestion90.9

9.88

1

0.6

7

11

06

- Incineration17.24

18

57

1

9.8

9

20

54

- Land-fill42.6

4.96

5.6

5

5.99

Palm waste 6)

26.0

2.65

2.7

7

2.82

PROMOTE APPROPRIATE TYPE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY

•Abolish RPS to separate renewable energy from IPP •Promote renewable energy through SPP and VSPP regulations, possibly with support from Energy Conservation Fund•Expected new capacity: 400 MW over next 5 years

POWER DEMAND CONTINUES TO EXPAND

AT 6-8% PER ANNUM:2004 GROWTH AT

7.75% AND GROWTH IN FIRST 7 MONTH

OF 2005 AT 6.9%

Source: EPPO

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

2545(2002) 2546(2003) 2547(2004) 2548(2005)

EGAT POWER GENERATION (GWh)

POWER DEMAND IS RELATED TO GDP BUT

RELATIONSHIP IS COMPLEX

Electric energy demand and peak demand grew at 1.2x and 0.99x to GDP growth respectively during the last 10 years. Lower elasticity of peak demand is due to TOU pricing and DSM

POWER DEMAND AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

%

Total Generation MEA PEA GDP

PEAK DEMAND IN 2011 SHOULD BE AROUND

30,000-32,000 MWSep.98-

MERJan.04-

LEGJan.04-MEG Actual

2000 15,254 14,918

2001 16,214 16,126

2002 17,308 16,681

2003 18,399 18,121

2004 19,611 19,129 19,600 19,373

2005 20,818 20,162 21,143 20,538

2006 22,168 21,123 22,738

2007 23,728 22,129 24,344

2008 25,450 23,132 26,048

2009 27,232 24,192 27,852

2010 28,912 25,274 29,808

2011 30,578 26,404 31,844

Peak Demand (MW)

DESPITE ECONOMIC SLOW DOWN

RESERVE MARGIN OF THE POWER

SYSTEM WILL DROP BELOW 15% BY 2006

•Reserve margin is falling faster than expected in PDP of February 2003 and will be below 15% in 2006 despite economic slow down as Peak Cut of 500 MW is unlikely to be achieved•Delay in new capacity in 2006-07 (BLCP, Gulf) could jeopardize power system reliability

RESERVE MARGIN (%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

PDP Feb.03 PDP Aug.04-MEG PDP Aug.04-MEG (Likely) Minimum Reserve Margin

ENERGY SECTOR INVESTMENT OF 574 BILLION BAHT DURING 2005-8

Apart from these there are also investments in oil & gas exploration and production, gas separation plants, and refinery expansion as excess capacity will disappear within 2 years

ENERGY SECTOR INVESTMENT (Million Baht)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Gas Pipeline Power Generation PEA MEA

NEW POWER GENERATION CAPACITY OF

13,230 MW REQUIRED FOR 2011-15New Generation CapacityEGAT Existing IPP New Capacity Total

2004 962 27 0 9892005 0 20 0 202006 0 673 0 6732007 0 1,537 0 1,5372008 700 2,100 0 2,8002008 1,400 920 0 2,3202010 700 0 0 7002011 0 0 2,940 2,9402012 0 0 2,205 2,2052013 0 0 2,205 2,2052014 0 0 2,940 2,9402015 0 0 2,940 2,940

2004-15 3,762 5,278 13,230 22,270

•Existing IPPs include BLCP,Gulf, Union, Nam Theun 2, SPPs•EGAT’s power plants consist of Krabi, Lamthakong, Songkla and expansions of North Bkk, South Bkk, Bangpakong•New capacity includes RPS and projects outside Thailand•Lower demand growth than MEG could reduce capacity requirement in 2011 by up to 2,000 MW

Source: EGAT PDP 2004

PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT: BEST WAY TO

MEET FUTURE DEMAND GROWTH• Given that the government has no policy to promote

consumer choice in the near future, competitive bidding for new generation capacity is the best way of meeting future demand growth in an efficient manner.

• In order to have Commercial Operation Date by 2011, IPP solicitation should be issued in early 2006. PPAs should be signed in 2007-H2.

• Clear and fair terms and conditions for next IPP solicitation are crucial for success of competitive bidding: role of EGAT (bidding in competition with IPPs and/or capacity set aside for EGAT etc.) and other state enterprises or subsidiaries, form of power purchase agreement, period and capacity to be solicited, type of fuel, Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (RPS)

• Allocation of 50% of new capacity to EGAT is simplistic with no clear rationale, and will affect competition in IPP bidding

• IPP solicitation with long term power purchase agreement under single buyer model does not need an independent regulator. Existing framework with EPPO as the regulator is sufficient

EGAT PRIVATIZATION: A SIMPLISTIC

CONVERSION OF PUBLIC MONOPOLY

INTO PRIVATE MONOPOLY• Enhanced Single Buyer (ESB) Structure of power

supply industry with no unbundling between generation and transmission and allocation of 50% of new capacity to EGAT : competition on an unequal footing for new generation capacity and difficult to introduce other forms of competition at a later stage.

• No independent regulatory body established under Act of Parliament. Only an interim regulator established with no power to regulate private companies. Regulating EGAT after privatization will be difficult.

• No clear guidelines and regulations on base tariff, tariff adjustment mechanism (Ft), and cross subsidy yet. Credibility of regulator and implementation of Ft (no government intervention???). Valuation crucially depends on tariff.

• Relationship with subsidiaries (EGCOMP, RATCH)

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT WILL FALL IN

H2-2005 BUT COULD RE-EMERGE IF

INVESTMENT IN MEGA-PROJECTS PICK UPCurrent Account Deficit and Investment

-700,000

-500,000

-300,000

-100,000

100,000

300,000

500,000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Defic

it (M

.Bah

t)

50,000

550,000

1,050,000

1,550,000

2,050,000

2,550,000

Inve

stm

ent

(M.B

aht

)

Current Account Gross Fixed Capital Formation

SAVINGS TO GDP (%)

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Household Corporate Government

Household savings have been falling

over the past 15 years. The level of

savings must be raised to maintain

current account balance

INCREASES IN LONG TERM SAVING NOT ONLY PROVIDE LONG TERM

FUNDS FOR MEGA-PROJECTS, IT WILL ALSO PROVIDE NEW FUNDS FOR

EQUITY AND BOND MARKETS

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN NET BUY AND CHANGE IN STOCK PRICE INDEX (2003-05)

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

-2.0% 3.0% 8.0% 13.0% 18.0% 23.0%

Foreign Net Buy/Market Capitalisation %

Chang

e in St

ock Pr

ice In

dex

%

Thailand-05

Korea-05

Thailand-04

Thailand-03

Indonesia-05

India-03

Indonesia-04

Taiwan-05

• Recent examples: 401 k-driven bull market in America during the 1990s, the dramatic bull market in Australia as a result of the compulsory super annuation system introduced in 1992, and Korea’s installment fund since 2004.

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