energy perspectives and new energy solutions · pdf filepersonal introduction •mathias...

Energy perspectives and new energy solutions Energy seminar Ås, 3rd of March 2017 3 mars 2017 Classification: Open

© Statoil ASA

Outline

• Personal introduction

• Statoil’s strategy

• Energy perspectives

• New energy solutions

3 mars 2017 2 Classification: Open © Statoil ASA

Personal introduction

• Mathias Vikøren Mo

• Master in Petroleum Technology from NTNU

• Started in Statoil in 2012

• Worked for 4 years as reservoir engineer on the Troll field

• Working with offshore wind projects since 2016


Industrial approach

• Leverage core competence

• Scale & technology reduce costs

• Access to long-term projects

Sharpened strategy: Building a profitable new energy business

Value driven

• From subsidies to markets

• 9-11% return range (real)

• Cash flow resilience

Growth opportunities

• 15-20% of capex in 20302

• Offshore wind and other options

• Low-carbon solutions

2016 2017-20 2020-25

~

500

750

-

500

1500

-

750

1 Indicative for offshore wind projects

2 Indicative, based on potential future corporate portfolio.

Capex potential per year

USD million

Dudgeon ¹


Macro and market outlook to 2040 – www.statoil.com/energyperspectives

Energy Perspectives 2016


Significant uncertainty and large changes

… this calls for using scenarios

Supply and demand factors (indexed 2002=100)

Source: The Economist Source: DOE, CEIC, IEA, IRENA

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

US shale oil prod.

Chinese int. tourists

New Chinese cars

Chinese airpassengersSolar capacity (rhs)


Several futures are possible... But the world is twice as rich, needs more energy, and is more efficient

World GDP growth rates %

0

1

2

3

4

'90-'00'00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 '30-'40

H Reform Renewal Rivalry

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Reform Renewal Rivalry

World GDP and energy demand Index, 1990=100

2013 Renewal

Reform

Rivalry


Speeding up the change in global energy mix … with Renewal displaying a paradigm shift

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

197

3

198

3

199

3

200

3

201

3

204

0 R

efo

rm

204

0 R

en

ew

al

204

0 R

ivalr

y

New RES

Biofuelsand wasteHydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Solid fuels

0

5

10

15

20

197

3

198

3

199

3

200

3

201

3

204

0 R

efo

rm

204

0R

ene

wal

204

0 R

ivalr

y

Historical

Bn toe


CO2 emissions determined by demand and mix

Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections)

Climate policies: Driving Renewal, contributing to Reform

Reform

450 Renewal

NP Rivalry

0

10

20

30

40

Statoil IEA

2040 2013

World CO2 emissions Billion tons

World CO2 emissions Billion tons

0

10

20

30

40

Ref Ren Riv

Rest of world India ChinaOECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD Americas

2040 2013


Source: IEA (WEO 2015), Statoil (projections)

Oil and gas are here to stay…

… for decades

Oil demand*, and supply from existing fields

Million barrels per day Gas demand, and supply from existing fields

Billion cubic meters

Assumming production from existing fields declining at 3-6% p.a.

Demand range

Decline range

Production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2020 2030 2040

Demand range

Decline range

Production

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2015 2020 2030 2040Assumming production from existing fields declining at 3-6% p.a.


OFFSHORE WIND

HYDROGEN

SOLAR

ENERGY STORAGE

CO2 use /IOR

NCS – CO2 STORAGE

Develop new lower-carbon business opportunities for Statoil’s core products

Build a profitable renewables business


Providing offshore wind to >1M homes

Offshore wind projects currently in progress delivering >1100 MW,

and potential for >5m homes

Sheringham

Shoal

Hywind

demo

2009- 2012- 2017 2017 2020-

Dudgeon Dogger

Bank

Hywind

pilot

Hywind

large scale

North West

Europe

In operation In operation In development In development Consented

2.3 MW 317 MW 402 MW 30 MW 4 x 1.2 GW

* All capacity figures on 100% basis

2019

Arkona

385 MW

In development

2024-?

New York

United States

East Coast

Auction won

1-2 GW

Japan

US West Coast

Attractive

market

Playing

to

our

strengths


Statoil taking operatorship role

in 2017

Seeking improved opex through

synergies with Dudgeon

On time and well under budget

WTG installation started

January 2017

On cost and schedule for 2019

start-up

June 2017 - installation of first

monopoles

Assembly at Stord in June 2017

High activity level in 2017

SHERINGHAM SHOAL - UK DUDGEON - UK ARKONA - GERMANY HYWIND SCOTLAND


Enabling large-scale floating wind production


Hywind Scotland


Expanding the potential floating wind market

Illustrative only, based on water

depths, wind conditions and

potential large markets

Current projects

Potential future markets

Long-term potential prospects


Statoil Energy Ventures – launched in 2016

Investing USD 200M in green energy growth

Onshore

small-scale

wind turbine

leases

Largest EV

charging

network in the

US

Support

Test

Explore

Solar

technology –

increasing

efficiency n

solar cells

Energy

storage

asset

developer


Thank you!

?

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