energy policy, climate change, and health
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Health and Energy Policy Roundtable & Workshop February 12, 2013
Prof Colin D Butler Energy policy, climate change, and health
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Technological lock in due to hubris and inequality
Unmet demand
Peak oil, climate change, health .. the sustainability of civilisation
Solutions
Summary
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Global Energy Assessment, 2012Global Energy Assessment, 2012
Unmet electricity need
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Global Energy Assessment, 2012
Unmet clean energy need
Most electricity is not clean
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(IH
D)
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Indoor air pollution
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Censored!
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Global Energy Assessment, 2012
exajoules
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Global Energy Assessment, 2012
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Lock-in of Technological and Social Cultures &Institutions
The QWERTY Phenomenon
SUBSIDIES: fossil fuel /renewables: 6 to 1 (2011 )
10 times more than costs of Hurricane Sandy
9Hurricane Sandy 2012
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Adapted from Murray & King, Nature. 2012; 481: 433-5.
Apparent production cap
2005: Plateau Oil
Production (million barrels/day)
Oil price (US$ per barrel)
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$1 billion a day, from Europe, Nth America
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Million barrels per day
Kerr (2012) – from Int’l Energy Agency(adapted)
Low net energy – extra high GHG
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Natural gas liquids
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Oil Watch: “Drill Baby Drill”, 2013
Production effort mismatch
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Parveen Parmar, MD examines a 25-year-old refugee at Kutupalong unofficial camp... no food for two days: “Now I am dying. No one brings
food to this camp. What will my wife and child do when I die?” (Physicians for Human Rights)
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climate change and health
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despair, economic loss, exposure to asbestos,
mould
40.3o 7.1.13; 40.2o 8.1.13
Bundaberg 25.1.13
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Extreme events – i.e. climate change?
Oil priceUS$/barrel
Food price (indexed)
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Russia/Ukraine heat/drought
US droughts
Butler
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Wise TA. The Cost to Developing Countries of U.S. Corn Ethanol Expansion: Tufts University; 2012.
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Russian-Roulette Chance (p = 5/6) of Holding 2°C-Line:
Negative Emissions after 2070 !
Adapted fromSchellnhuber, 2009
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Tipping points in the Earth’s eco-social system
Rwanda 1994 Boat
people1788
Surplus people
B/desh
2050?
2015? 20
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Burden of Disease (proportion)
Time until obvious
now 2050?
PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity)
SECONDARY (eg vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies.
TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) famine, conflict, large-
scale migration, economic collapse
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Butler Climate Change and Global Health, CABI, UK, in press
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Crisis = opportunity
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Ingenuity in the Year without a summer (1816)
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Global Energy Assessment, 2012
Solar (1975-20072007-10)
NUCLEAR
US$/kwH(2005
dollars)
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“Rising risk prices out new coal-fired plants” 7.2.13
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Global Energy Assessment, 2012
Clean energy investment
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India: planning 455 new coal plants
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Proposed National Renewable Grid 30
stewardship, courage, hope sensitise and then inspire community