5/3/11 Strategic Policy

RECKMEYERUNVS 196

Energy Policy Recommendation

Energy

5/3/11 Strategic Policy

RECKMEYERUNVS 196

Energy Policy Recommendation

The Team

Kim TanKim Tan

Travis LopezTravis Lopez

Ken HawthornKen Hawthorn

Saryna KonczeySaryna Konczey

Arturo MiramontesArturo Miramontes

5/3/11 Strategic Policy

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Energy Policy Recommendation

Challenges

Population

FiniteResources

ChangeRenewables

Conflicts

Global

Adoption of EV’s & Hybrid’s

Collaboration:U.S. & ChinaClean Energy

R&D

OPEC

Terrorist

Emerging

Conflicts

Economies:China & IndiaMiddle Class

Oil PricesGDP

Invested inOil Related

Attacks: U.S. Soil &

Cyber

Efficiency:

InfrastructureU.S. Grid

Petroleumdistribution

ForeignOil:

Reserves/Access

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Energy Policy Recommendation

Priorities

1. Oil • Finite resource

‒ Our dependence on oil will cost us greatly. We use it for everything (e.g., transportation, food and material good production, etc.) at a global standpoint

• Foreign conflicts ‒ e.g., Iraq and Libya - “Spilling Blood and Treasure”

• Emerging Economies‒ China and India

Overarching strategic priority: Maintaining at least the same kWh consumption capacity we currently posses (around 42,000 kWh per household). The following are the top strategic challenges that drive this overarching priority:

5/3/11 Strategic Policy

RECKMEYERUNVS 196

Energy Policy Recommendation

Priorities (cont.)

2. Transportation Energy Mix

• Energy is utilized heavily for transportation

• It is also responsible for pollution

• Transportation drives our economy more than other energy uses

3.Infrastructure/Grid Efficiency

• Aging, fractured, slow to react

• About 50% losses in transmission and generation

5/3/11 Strategic Policy

RECKMEYERUNVS 196

Energy Policy Recommendation

The Energy VIX

Inspired by the Global Warming models and data modeling devices we have developed a tool which would help forecast into the future what our kWh levels might be as compared to the current number.

The Energy VIX

- Imagine a system which allows you to input a breadth of real-world data and assist in your decision-making for the future.

- The VIX captures accurate data that allows us to predict our future needs.

- The tool simulates both positive and negative “what-if” scenarios and automatically predicts the impact upon future needs and requirements of energy consumption.

5/3/11 Strategic Policy

RECKMEYERUNVS 196

Energy Policy Recommendation

Our Recommendations

Meta Recommendation: - The development, refinement, and utilization of the “Energy Volatility Index”

tool. This of course would take a team of specialists and funding.

- Energy VIX will be able to provide automated recommendations for top priorities and actions to take for key decision-makers, while also breaking down the most instable and vulnerable sources of energy.

Recommendations: 1. Switch to nuclear power, from 5.54% to 12.8% in attempt to move off of

OPEC oil and address growing population

2. Endorse the use of electric powered vehicles by building more charging stations for EV’s

3. Develop a stronger, updated grid for the United States

5/3/11 Strategic Policy

RECKMEYERUNVS 196

Energy Policy Recommendation

Scenario 1

Population change and middle class boom in China and India will drive up OPEC prices. We get off OPEC energy and redirect to nuclear.

What Was Modeled:

‐ Going to 12.8% nuclear from 5.54% in the US energy mix

‐ Moving off OPEC gets the US out of Middle East oil conflicts and allows for population growth in China (let them get their oil from OPEC)

What Was Changed in the Model:

‐ Change to energy mix and cost

‐ Change to frequency and cost of oil related conflicts

5/3/11 Strategic Policy

RECKMEYERUNVS 196

Energy Policy Recommendation

Scenario 2

We have less gas and more electricity to use as oil becomes harder to get. We need to change our infrastructure to match our transition of oil to electricity.

What was Modeled:

‐ Increasing the use of electric vehicles to reflect the reduced oil availably and increased electricity availability to build on Scenario #1

‐ What do we need to change that? Add a national network of changing stations

What was Changed in the Model:

‐ The proportion of electric vehicles and hybrids on the road

5/3/11 Strategic Policy

RECKMEYERUNVS 196

Energy Policy Recommendation

Scenario 3

Investments in grid efficiency can be leveraged as the proportion of electricity in the energy mix increases from Scenario #1 and #2.

What was Modeled:

‐ National smart grid adoption

‐ A larger variety of renewables from local sources

What was Changed in the Model:

‐ Reduced energy loss from transmission

‐ Increased robustness of grid to recover from cyber attack and natural disaster

5/3/11 Strategic Policy

RECKMEYERUNVS 196

Energy Policy Recommendation

End Thoughts

Can we ever meet our energy demands in the future?

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