energy policy solutions

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ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONS

HAL HARVEY

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AMERICA’S ENERGY GOALS:

Energy Policy Solutions aims to find the policies that achieve these goals

AFFORDABLE

CLEAN

RELIABLE

SAFE

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Identifies the policies that can deliver on America’s energy goals most cost-effectively

Establishes an analytically-driven approach to reducing emissions in an efficient and economically viable way

Provides the tools and resources necessary to make informed policy decisions

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Our reviewers: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

Argonne National Lab

National Renewable Energy Lab

MIT

Stanford

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ENERGY POLICY SIMULATORThe Energy Policy Simulator measures the cost and emissions impacts of more than 50 climate and energy policies.

It is unique in that it: Covers all GHG-emitting sectors Offers unlimited policy

combinations: users can adjust policy levers and observe their impacts in real-time

Is fully open-source; anyone can download the model and view or modify its data sources and structure

Runs on free, publicly-available data

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ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR

A web application visualizes model results in an easy-to-use interface

https://energypolicy.solutions/scenarios/home

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MODEL FINDINGSCLEAN POWER PLANTarget: Reduce electricity-related emissions 32% below 2005 levels by 2030

Policy Settings: Coal Plant Retirements Industrial Efficiency Standards Renewable Electricity + Transmission Building Codes and Appliance Standards R&D

Clean Power Plan is relatively easy to achieve

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MODEL FINDINGSUS 2025 EMISSIONS TARGETTarget: Reduce economy-wide emissions 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025

Policy Settings: Fuel Economy Standards Car Feebate Urban Mobility Electric Vehicles Renewable Electricity + Transmission Coal Plan Retirement Building Codes and Appliance Standards

Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax Reduced F-gases Methane capture Clean On-Site Industrial Energy Industrial Efficiency Standards Forest Expansion Coal Efficiency Improvement Retrofitting

The U.S. 2025 emissions target is challenging, but doable

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ENERGY POLICY SOLUTIONSSCENARIOS

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000EMISSIONS

MIL

LION

MET

RIC

TONS

CO2

e

BUSINESS AS USUAL

2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000EMISSIONS

MIL

LION

MET

RIC

TONS

CO2

e

BUSINESS AS USUALCLEAN POWER PLAN

2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

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0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000EMISSIONS

MIL

LION

MET

RIC

TONS

CO2

e

BUSINESS AS USUAL

US 2025 CLIMATE TARGET

CLEAN POWER PLAN

POLICY SOLUTIONS

2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

120

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

MILL

ION

METR

IC T

ONS

CO2e

POL ICY SOLUTIONSEMISSIONS REDUCTIONS

2013 2015 2025 20302020

BUSINESS AS USUAL

POLICY SOLUTIONS

LAND USEBUILDINGS

ELECTRICITY

TRA

NSP

ORT

IND

UST

RYCA

RB

ON

TA

X

0%

100%

Revenue-Neutral Carbon Tax

Reduced F-Gases

Methane Capture

Clean On-Site Industrial Energy

Industrial Efficiency Standards

Car Feebate

Fuel Economy Standards

Urban Mobility

Electric Vehicles Forest Expansion

Coal Plant Retirements

Renewable Electricity + Transmission

Coal Efficiency Improvement

Building Codes and Appliance Standards

Retrofitting

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2013 2015 2020 2025 2030-100000000000

0

100000000000

200000000000

300000000000

400000000000

500000000000

600000000000

700000000000

800000000000

900000000000CUMULATIVE COSTS AND SAVINGS

Clean Power PlanPolicy Solutions

BILL

ION

2012

$

COSTS

Values are in inflation-adjusted 2012 dollars, discounted at 3% annuallyfrom a base year of 2016. Assumes carbon tax is revenue-neutral.

SAVING

S

Savings by 2019 Savings by 2027

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2013 2015 2020 2025 20300

500000000000

1000000000000

1500000000000

2000000000000

2500000000000

3000000000000

3500000000000

4000000000000

4500000000000

5000000000000CUMULATIVE SOCIAL BENEFITS


TRILL

ION

2012

$

BENEFITS

Social benefits include only avoided mortality due toparticulates and avoided contribution to climate damages.

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2013 2015 2020 2025 20300

1000000000000

2000000000000

3000000000000

4000000000000

5000000000000

6000000000000NET BENEFITS (ECONOMIC + SOCIAL)


Values represent the sum of economic benefits (inflation-adjusted 2012 dollars, discounted at 3% annually from a base year of 2016) and social benefits. Assumes carbon tax is revenue-neutral.

BENEFITS

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KEY MESSAGES

Carbon reductions can be done across the economy at a relatively quick pace

This requires great policy design and implementation

Doing this properly can save hundreds of billions of dollars

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POLICIES THAT WORK Reward performance, not investment, being

wary of unintended consequences Set goals and empower market forces to

drive the best solutions Require consistent, predictable

performance improvements Set a long-term trajectory

These principals promote competition, accelerate technology, and drastically cut costs.

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THANK YOU

@HAL_HARVEY@ENERGYINNOVLLC

HAL HARVEYWWW.ENERGYINNOVATION.ORG

energy policy solutions

Environment