energy portfolio pres
TRANSCRIPT
Energy PortfolioBY CARL ERICKSONAS OF AUGUST 8 T H , 2016
Why Energy?• Oil prices have been declining.• Commodity prices have also fallen during the past decade.• Can a firm produce positive results in this poor economic climate?• Energy is a resource that will only become more scarce.• While coal power is largely declining due to environmental concerns, the market for natural gas is expanding.• Recent technological developments have enabled the industry giants to greatly improve their shale oil and natural gas production methods.• Lower oil prices increase demand for natural gas, which in turn puts upward pressure on oil prices.
Portfolio List Oilfield Services and Equipment1. Eco-Stim Energy Solutions, Inc.
2. ENSERVCO Corporation
3. Natural Gas Services Group, Inc.
4. Oceaneering International, Inc.
Oil and Gas Production5. Adams Resources & Energy, Inc.
6. Abraxas Petroleum Corporation
7. Apache Corporation
8. Bill Barret Corporation
9. Climarex Energy Co.
10. Dawson Geophysical Company
11. Diamondback Energy Company
12. Earthstone Energy, Inc.
13. Evolution Petroleum Corporation, Inc.
14. Jones Energy, Inc.
15. Legacy Reserves LP
16. Marathon Oil Corporation
17. Matador Resources Company
18. Noble Energy, Inc
Natural Gas Distributors19. Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P.
20. Magellan Midstream Partners, L.P.
21. Nustar Energy, L.P.
22. Gulfport Energy Corporation
Metal Fabrications23. Dril-Quip, Inc.
24. Newpark Resources, Inc.
Integrated Oil Companies25. Alon USA Energy, Inc.
26. Chevron Corporation
27. ConocoPhillips
28. Exxon Mobil Corporation
29. Phillips 66
Industrial Machinery30. Capstone Turbine Corporation
Electric Utilities31. MGE Energy, Inc.
32. PG&E Corporation
Portfolio Components
42%
12%
18%
12%
3%6%
6%
Subsector Distribution
Oil and Gas Production Natural Gas DistributionIntegrated Oil Companies Oilfield ServicesIndustrial Machinery Electrical UtilitiesMetal Fabrications
13%
10%
10%
52%
3%
13%
Regional Distribution
California Colorado Oklahoma Texas Wisconsin Global
Methodology Screens• Subsector• Region• Debt/Equity Ratio• Dividend Payout• Management• Shareholder Base• ESG• EPS• Number of Employees• M&A
• Vanguard Energy Index Benchmark
• ISS QuickScore
Abraxas Petroleum Corporation (AXAS)
• Description: Development and production of crude oil
• Firm size: 89• Corporate governance: Management team in
place for 40+ years. Board selects a CEO and other higher management positions. Board members are not current employees.
Additional Notes• Forward P/E ratio of 14.13 (industry avg. of
10.75), which put Abraxas’ growth at a lower price than the industry
• Impressive profit margin• Needs to organize debt against cash on hand
Debt/Equity Ratio Holders (%) EPS
3.05 7.4 by insiders -1.59
Dec. 2011
Jul. 2012
Dec. 2012
Jul. 2013
Dec. 2013
Jul. 2014
Dec. 2014
Jul. 2015
Dec. 2015
Jul. 2016
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
Vanguard Energy Index vs. Abraxas Petroleum
VENAX AXAS
Apache Corporation (APA)Debt/Equity Ratio Holders (%) EPS (%)
2.02 0.45 by insiders -50.5
• Description: Development and production of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids
• Firm size: 3,860 • Corporate governance: Board and shareholder
rights both received a low ISS QuickScore
Additional Notes:• Consistent focus on optimizing assets• Egyptian wells are low cost• North Sea wells are highly profitable• Aims to reduce methane leakage to less than 1%
of total U.S. gas production
Dec. 2011
Jul. 2012
Dec. 2012
Jul. 2013
Dec. 2013
Jul. 2014
Dec. 2014
Jul. 2015
Dec. 2015
Jul. 2016
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
Vanguard Energy Index vs. Apache Corp.
VENAX APA
Bill Barret Corporation (BBG)Debt/Equity Ratio Holders (%) EPS (%)
1.96 1.07 by insiders -10.81
• Description: Exploration, development and production of natural gas and crude oil
• Firm size: 139• Corporate governance: Board has very low ISS
QuickScore and finances are above average
Additional Notes• Consistently exceeds forecasts• One of the lowest cost producers in the industry• Higher marginal return compared to competitors
Dec. 2011
Jul. 2012
Dec. 2012
Jul. 2013
Dec. 2013
Jul. 2014
Dec. 2014
Jul. 2015
Dec. 2015
Jul. 2016
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
Vanguard Energy Index vs. Bill Barret Corp
VENAX BBG
Capstone Turbine Corporation (CPST)
Debt/Equity Ratio Holders (%) EPS (%)
1.59 1.07 by insiders -1.39
• Description: Develops, manufactures, and services micro turbines for use in stationary distributed power generation applications
• Firm size: 191• Corporate governance: ISS QuickScore of 5
Additional Notes• World’s leading producer of low-emission micro
turbines• Shifted towards energy efficiency rather than oil and
gas manufacturing• Shares have dropped but business is booming• Leading the industry due to cost reductions and
innovation
Dec. 2011
Jul. 2012
Dec. 2012
Jul. 2013
Dec. 2013
Jul. 2014
Dec. 2014
Jul. 2015
Dec. 2015
Jul. 2016
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
Vanguard Energy Index vs. Capstone Turbine Corp.
VENAX CPST
ConocoPhillips (COP)Debt/Equity Ratio Holders (%) EPS (%)
1.24 0.02 by insiders -4.98
• Description: Exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas
• Firm size: 15,600• Corporate governance: ISS QuickScore of 9
Additional Notes• Very transparent on environmental impact• Focused on water treatment and sustainability• Holds $5 billion in cash and credit lines are largely
unused• Halted deep water projects due to environmental and
financial concerns
Dec. 2011
Jul. 2012
Dec. 2012
Jul. 2013
Dec. 2013
Jul. 2014
Dec. 2014
Jul. 2015
Dec. 2015
Jul. 2016
$0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00
$100.00
Vanguard Energy Index vs. ConocoPhillips
VENAX COP
Diamondback Energy Inc. (FANG)
Debt/Equity Ratio Holders (%) EPS (%)
2.73 0.15 by insiders -9.11
• Description: Exploration, development and production of natural gas and crude oil
• Firm size: 141• Corporate governance: ISS QuickScore of 5
Additional Notes• Has shown it can generate profits despite
price of oil• Very low cost producer• Has decreased debt to manageable levels• Strong cash position
Dec. 2011
Jul. 2012
Dec. 2012
Jul. 2013
Dec. 2013
Jul. 2014
Dec. 2014
Jul. 2015
Dec. 2015
Jul. 2016
$0.00 $20.00 $40.00 $60.00 $80.00
$100.00
Vanguard Energy Index vs. Di-amondback Energy Inc.
VENAX FANG
Earthstone Energy, Inc. (ESTE)Debt/Equity Ratio Holders (%) EPS (%)
0.81 90.0 by insiders -8.81
• Description: Exploration, development and production of natural gas and crude oil
• Firm Size: 50• Corporate Governance: ISS QuickScore of 9.
Management team has successfully built and sold 5 oil companies
Additional Notes• Management team has significant portion of
shares• Debt free balance sheet• Current plan for a 20% production increase
Dec. 2011
Jul. 2012
Dec. 2012
Jul. 2013
Dec. 2013
Jul. 2014
Dec. 2014
Jul. 2015
Dec. 2015
Jul. 2016
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
Vanguard Energy Index vs. Earthstone Energy Inc.
VENAX ESTE
ENSERVCO Corporation (ENSV)Debt/Equity Ratio Holders (%) EPS (%)
2.49 42.0 by insiders -0.13
• Description: Provides oil field services to the onshore oil and natural gas industry
• Firm size: 179• Corporate governance: No ISS QuickScore, but
research showed very low employee turnover
Additional Notes• Substantially higher return on equity compared to
industry average (61% to 13%)• Only provider of frac heating in industry• Involved in a growing industry• Planned expansion of fleet expected to increase
revenues
Dec. 2011
Jul. 2012
Dec. 2012
Jul. 2013
Dec. 2013
Jul. 2014
Dec. 2014
Jul. 2015
Dec. 2015
Jul. 2016
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
Vanguard Energy Index vs. ENSERVCO Corp.
VENAX ENSV
Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR)
Debt/Equity Ratio Holders (%) EPS (%)
1.59 0.33 by insiders -16.14
• Description: Acquisition, exploration, and production of natural gas
• Firm size: 230• Corporate governance: ISS QuickScore of 4
Additional Notes• Very low cost of production at Utica, OH location• Immense production growth over the past 2 years • Reduced number of wells from 47 to 12• Phasing in a new pipeline division partnering with
Rockies Express Pipeline and Texas Gas Transmission that will cover the transportation of existing and future production
Dec. 2011
Jul. 2012
Dec. 2012
Jul. 2013
Dec. 2013
Jul. 2014
Dec. 2014
Jul. 2015
Dec. 2015
Jul. 2016
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
Vanguard Energy Index vs. Gulfport Energy Corp.
VENAX GPOR
Phillips 66 (PSX)Debt/Equity Ratio Holders (%) EPS (%)
1.22 10.84 by insiders 5.75
• Description: Exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas
• Firm size: 14,000• Corporate governance: ISS QuickScore of 9
Additional Notes• Only Valero and HollyFrontier have lower
Debt-to-Assets, long term debt/equity, and total debt/equity
• Has experienced drop in cash flow, however business has enough liquidity to meet all of its capital needs including raising dividend rates by 12.5%
• Management consistently outlasts market volatility with a strong balance sheet
Dec. 2011
Jul. 2012
Dec. 2012
Jul. 2013
Dec. 2013
Jul. 2014
Dec. 2014
Jul. 2015
Dec. 2015
Jul. 2016
$0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 $70.00 $80.00 $90.00
Vanguard Energy Index vs. Phillips 66
VENAX PSX
Summary• Oil prices have declined, but are poised to bounce back.• Advances in technology have increased efficiency. • The companies in this portfolio are indicators of success in these poor market conditions
Sources• Seekingalpha.com
• Yahoo Finance
• Company Websites
• SEC filings/quarterly reports
• NYSE.com
• Vanguard Group company website