energy sector analysis- india prepared by dr.r.n.patel updated by pro. shebaz memon
TRANSCRIPT
Energy Sector Analysis- India
Prepared by
Dr.R.N.PatelUpdated by
Pro. Shebaz Memon
Outline of Talk
• Energy Flow Diagram• Objectives• Data Sources•Primary energy•Power sector•Energy Balance
Energy Flow DiagramPRIMARY ENERGY
SECONDARY ENERGY
COAL, OIL, SOLAR, GAS
POWER PLANTS, REFINERIES
REFINED OIL, ELECTRICITY
RAILWAYS, TRUCKS, PIPELINES
WHAT CONSUMED BY DILIVERED ENERGY
AUTOMOBILE, LAMP,MOTOR, STOVE
MOTIVE POWER, RADIENT ENERGY
DISTANCE TRAVELLED, ILLUMINATION,COOKED FOOD, ETC.
ENERGY CONVERSION FACILITY
TRANSMISSON & DISTN. SYSTEMS
FINAL ENERGY
ENERGY UTILISATION EQUIP. & SYSTEMS
USEFUL ENERGY
END USE ACTIVITY
PRIMARY ENERGY
SECONDARY ENERGY
Data Sources
• Commercial Fuels- National Statistics Ministry of Coal, Petroleum & N Gas, Power Annual Reports
• Compilations- TERI, CMIE
CMIE – center for monitoring Indian economyNCAER-National council for applied economic research
• US department of Energy
• International Energy Agency
Units
• Physical Quantities- Coal, Oil (Tonnes) Oil – Barrels
• Natural Gas- m3 (Nm3 or Sm3)
• Electricity kWh, Mus (Million units)
• Gross Calorific Value (GCV/HHV), Net Calorific Value (NCV/LHV) – based on fuel composition
• Coal Equivalent/ Oil Equivalent – In terms of energy equivalents of Coal or Oil
Commercial Energy Supply in India Data
• Coal 640 MT(2012) (540 Domestic +100 Imported)• Lignite 42 Million Tonnes(2012)
• Crude Oil • 38 million Tonnes (Domestic) (2012)
• 171 Million Tonnes (Import) (2012) Total @ ~209 Million Tonnes• Natural Gas 45 billion m3
• Hydro Installed Capacity 37567 MW, Hydro Production of Primary Sources 163,796GWh
• Nuclear Installed Capacity 4780 MW, Nuclear Production of Primary Sources 29664 GWh
Commercial Energy Supply in India(2011-12)
Source Supply Calorific Value
Total Energy (PJ)
Coal 640 Million Tonnes 18.8 MJ/kg 12032.0
Oil (Domestic)
38 million Tonnes
42 MJ/kg1596.0
Oil (Import) 171 7182.0
Natural Gas 45 billion m3 9300 kCal/m3 1751.8
Hydro 163796 MU 85% 693.7
Nuclear 32863MU 25% 473.2
Total 23728.8
India – Primary Commercial Energy-2011
Share of Future Energy Supply (%)
Year Coal Oil Gas Hydel Nuclear
1997-98 55 35 7 2 1
2001-02 50 32 15 2 1
2006-07 50 32 15 2 1
2010-11 53 30 14 2 1
2024-25 50 25 20 2 3
Source: Upto 2011 from Technical Note on Energy, Planning Commission, Govt. of India (1998-99). Beyond this period the figures have been extrapolated.
India – Overall Energy
• population 1210 million (2011)
• 99600 billion Rs GDP (1.848 trillion USD) (Gross Domestic Product) (2011), world bank
• 23.6 EJ (560 million tonnes of oil equiv.) (2011), BP Statistical Review
• 21.52 GJ/capita/year (0.51 toe/capita/year)-2005• 19.50 GJ/capita/year (0.462 toe/capita/year)-2011
• Per capita GDP = 5410 Rs. ($1000)
• Energy/GDP = 0.56 kgoe/$
Per Capita Energy Consumption
Energy Intensity
India - Fossil Fuel Reserves
Fuel Reserves Prodn R/P ratio
Coal and Lignite (Million tonnes)
286000 + 41000= 327000
533 + 38 = 571
~ 572+
Crude Oil(million tonnes)
757 38 ~ 20
N. Gas(Billion m3)
1241 52 ~ 24
NuclearUranium and Thorium(tonns)
Not accurately estimated170000+225000
- ~50
Energy demand by Sector. Energy demand by Fuel.
• To produce 1 Unit of electricity, we release 1 kg of CO2.
• India responsible for 700 million metric tons of CO2.
• We are 3th largest contributor to the world pollution.
• India accounts for 5.3% of greenhouse emission.
Power Sector
• 616 kWh electricity use/capita/year
• Plant load factor = Actual generation / Max possible generation (rated load)
• Plant Heat Rate = Heat input / Electricity output
• Net Power = Gross – Auxiliary Consumption
• Installed capacity 249488.31(As on 30-06-2014)MW
• Electricity production = 762.67 billion kWh during April’12 January’13
Electricity through different routes-as on 30/09/2013
Indian Power Sector
NARORA
440 MWe ( 2x220)
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS IN OPERATION
RAWATBHATA 740 MWe (1x100+1x200+2x220)
KAIGA
440 MWe (2x220)
KALPAKKAM
440 MWe (2x220)
KAKRAPAR
440 MWe (2X220) TARAPUR 860 MWe (2x160 + 1x540)
Wind Power: Potential (49130MW)
Andhra Pradesh; 5394
Gujarat; 10609
Karnataka; 8591
Kerala; 790Madhya Pradesh; 920Maharashtra; 5439
Rajasthan; 5005
Tamil Nadu; 5374
Orissa; 910
others; 7008
Installable Potential, in MW
STATE-WISE WIND POWER INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) (UPTO 31.05.2014)
Andhra Pradesh; 245.5
Gujarat; 2966.3
Karnataka; 1933.5
Kerala; 35.1Madhya Pradesh;
376.4
Maharashtra; 2733.3
Rajasthan; 2070.7
Tamil Nadu; 6987.6
Others; 3.2
Installed capacity, total 21262.23 MW
Wind Power Growth1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
year
In M
W
Biomass Estimation (Million tonnes)
Source NCAER IREP REDB
Fuel wood 93 169 252
Dung cake 83.2 54.2 106.9
AgricultureResidue
36.7 62.8 99.2
Source : Urja Bharti, MNES 1994
Biomass Estimation
• About 32% of the total primary energy use in the country is still
derived from biomass and more than 70% of the country’s
population depends upon it for its energy needs.
• Uncertainties in estimation
• Usage- Domestic, Brick klin, Rice mills, and other industries
• Per capita biomass use approx constant over last 20 years
• 6.4 GJ/capita/year
• 6180 PJ – 1997-98 (4% of world)
• population 17.1% of world population
TREND OF CATEGORYWISE ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Electricity
• 214.6 GW Installed Capacity as on 28-02-13 (about 4.1% of
World Capacity Average 0.177 kW of installed capacity/capita
• World Installed capacity 0.73 kW/capita
• Low Electricity Consumption –India about 818 kWh/capita/yr
as on 2011
• Nepal 93, Bangladesh 279 kWh/capita/yr as on 2008
• World Average Electricity Consumption- 2894 kWh/capita/yr
• Electricity production as on 2008 is 20,261 billion kWh
Electricity Characteristics
• High Losses - T&D and Theft 24% in most SEBs
• As many as 559241 villages out of 593732 (about 94.2%)
Villages has been electrified in India as on 31-01-2013
• Electricity Sector – from State Controlled Monopoly –
Transition – to Regulated Sector with Privatization
• Subsidized electricity to agriculture sector,
low usage residential
Electricity Sector
• SEB annual loss by 31 march 2011 is Rs 68,000crores
• Gap of 92 p/kWh- between cost of supply and revenue
• Peak shortage 12.9%, energy shortage 10.3%
• Estimated requirements of 400,000 MW additional
capacity by 2032
• 70% increase in greenhouse gas emissions from 1970 to 2004 (2004 at 49 GtCO2 equivalent)
• Automotive (120%) & Energy (145%) sectors main contributors
• Energy efficiency, adopting cleaner fuels & renewable energy key levers for mitigation Source: Report of Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, May 2007
Climate Change – Global Facts
Source: Govt. of India, Initial National Communication to UNFCC, June 2004
Set to increase 3 folds from 1990 to 2020 (3000 million tons of CO2 equivalent)
Climate Change – Indian Facts
http://warmgloblog.blogspot.in/2012_02_01_archive.html
India- Electricity Generation
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
Total generation, in GWh
Total generation, in GWh
Impact of growth in demand on Environment
Global Power Sector
Global GDP projected to grow at 3.4% annually till 2030
Emerging economies like China and India projected to grow by 8 – 10%
Developed economies currently take lion’s share in energy consumption
A fourth of the world’s population lives in darkness
Increase in net electricity consumption by 2015: 42%
New generation capacity required by 2030: 1,600 GW (5,087 GW including replacement capacity)
Twin threats: Inadequate and insecure supply of
energy sources Environmental harm due to over-
consumption of polluting fuels
Strong Correlation between per Capita GDP and per Capita Electricity Consumption.
Forecasts Point Towards a Robust GDP Growth over the next 3 to 5 decades.
ENERGY GROWTH IN INDIA
Source: http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/24/em-investing-check-out-the-grid/#axzz2QPfwAfnI
http://www.barc.gov.in/rcaindia/4_5.html
Country’s Energy Scenario – A Quick Recap
Acute shortage of Power at
present.
Energy Shortage was 10.3%
Peak Shortage was 12.9%
Power Generation Capacity
addition is far below the
expected (only 54000 MW
against expected 62000 MW
during 2007 – 2012)
We need to urgently ensure power availability to sustain our GDP growth.
Total Energy Production
Total Energy Consumption
