energy storage could become a future industry in south africa · fixed o&m battery/reservoir...

76
DRAFT 17 August 2017 ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA Release of the US Trade and Development Agency sponsored Energy Storage for South Africa study

Upload: others

Post on 07-Jun-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

DRAFT

17 August 2017

ENERGY STORAGE COULD

BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN

SOUTH AFRICA

Release of the US Trade and Development

Agency sponsored Energy Storage for South

Africa study

Page 2: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

2 2

PROGRAM

• WELCOME

• KEY NOTE – Lizeka Matshekga (IDC Divisional Executive for Agro,

Infrastructure and New Industries)

• KEY NOTE – Jacob Flewelling – USDTA

• PRESENTATION• Overview of USTDA study content – Bertie Strydom (IDC Senior Project

Development Manager)

• Energy storage perspective by ESKOM – Sumaya Nassiep (Acting

General Manager – Eskom Research, Testing and Development)

• Energy storage perspective by City of Joburg – Paul Vermeulen

(Manager DSM and SSM)

• QUESTIONS

• CONCLUSION REMARKS AND THANKS

• NETWORKING

Page 3: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

DRAFT

17 August 2017

OVERVIEW OF STUDY OUTCOME

Release of the US Trade and Development

Agency sponsored Energy Storage for South

Africa study

Page 4: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

4 4

CONTENT

• Background

• Global market and trends

• Energy storage use cases

• Technology landscape

• Economics for energy storage

• Financial considerations

• Environmental perspective

• Regulatory perspective

• Way forward

Page 5: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

DRAFT

BACKGROUND

Page 6: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

6 6

BACKGROUND

Source - EPRI

Page 7: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

7 7

BACKGROUND

Source - EPRI

Page 8: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

8 8

BACKGROUND

SOURCE : IRENA ROADMAP REPORT

Positioning of Energy Storage

Page 9: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

DRAFT

ENERGY STORAGE MARKET

Page 10: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

10 10

BACKGROUND

• Energy Storage is globally considered the new wave in the energy sector.

• According to Bloomberg 45 GW/81 GWh of distributed or advanced stationary energy storage will be installed by 2024 (excluding pumped hydro and electric vehicles).

• The top five markets are Japan, India, the United States, China, and Europe. They represent 71% of the global total in 2024 for storage installed.

• Between 2016 and 2024, some $44bn is expected to be invested in storage.

Page 11: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

11 11

CUMULATIVE INSTALLED STATIONARY ENERGY STORAGE BY MAJOR REGION

Page 12: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

12 12

CUMULATIVE STATIONARY MARKET DEPLOYMENT IN KEY AREAS (GW)

Page 13: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

13 13

CUMULATIVE STATIONARY MARKET DEPLOYMENT IN KEY AREAS (GWh)

Page 14: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

14 14

ANNUAL STATIONARY NEW BUILD (GW)

Page 15: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

15 15

ANNUAL STATIONARY NEW BUILD (GWh)

Page 16: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

16 16

ANNUAL STATIONARY DEMAND COMPARED TO OTHER APPLICATIONS (GWh)

Page 17: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

DRAFT

STATIONARY ENERGY STORAGE USE CASES

Page 18: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

18 18

ENERGY STORAGE OPTIONS

Power-to-Power: A process of converting electrical energy

from a power network into a form that can be stored for

converting back to electrical energy when needed with as

low as possible energy losses due to inefficiencies.

Power-to-Heat: A process where electricity is used to

generate heat for consumption at a later time

Power-to-Gas: A process where electricity is used to

produce a gas such as hydrogen. The hydrogen can then

be used as a fuel or to produce electricity at a later stage.

Page 19: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

19 19

POWER TO POWER – USE CASES

The USTDA study only considered stationary power-to-power market

Page 20: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

20 20

POWER TO HEAT – USE CASES

Comfort Heat

Space heating

Water heating

Industrial Heat

Process heat (water)

Process heat (non-water,

smelters)

Still to be analyzed

Page 21: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

21 21

POWER TO GAS/LIQUIDS – USE CASES

Fuels

Power-to-Gas (CH4)

Power-to-Liquids

(CH3OH, -CH-)

H2 as fuel

Chemical Feed stocks

H2 as chemical feedstock

CO2 as feedstock

Still to be analyzed

Page 22: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

22 22

FORECAST : STATIONARY POWER TO POWER USE CASES (GW)

Page 23: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

23 23

FORECAST : STATIONARY POWER TO POWER (GWH)

Page 24: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

DRAFT

CURRENT SA STORAGE INITIATIVE CONTEXT

Page 25: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

25 25

OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Energy Storage could unlock opportunities in:

� Mining and Beneficiation

� Research and Development

� Commercial exploitation

� Local Industry Development

� Developmental Impact

� Global market player aspirations

Page 26: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

26 26

INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY ROADMAP

SA MARKET

OPPORTUNITIES /

PRIORITIZATION

DEVELOPMENT OF

REGULATORY

FRAMEWORK

FORM INDUSTRY

DEVELOPMENT

PARTNERSHIPS

(IDC, SANEDI,

SAWEA, SAPVIA

OTHER)

SA ENERGY

STORAGE USE CASE

DEVELOPMENT

IDENTIFY

ALTERNATIVES TO

EACH OF THE ENERY

STORAGE USE

CASES

INDEPENDENTLY

ASSESS THE VALUE

OF STORAGE FOR

EACH USE CASE

CREATE SA VALUE

PROPOSITION FOR

ENERGY STORAGE

CREATE BROAD

AWARENESS OF

THE ROLE AND

VALUE FUNCTION

OF ENERGY

STORAGE

DEVELOPMENT OF

IMPLEMENTATION

AND SUPPORT

PROGRAMME

FULL SCALE

IMPLEMENTATION

ESTABLISH

STAKEHOLDER

FORUM

GLOBAL TECHNO-

ECONOMIC STUDY

IDENTIFY SUITABLE

TECHNOLOGIES

AGAINST USE CASES

(SUPPLY AND

DEMAND)

FILTER FOR SHORT

LIST OF SUITABLE

TECHNOLOGIES

CONFORMING TO

SA's NEEDS

INDUSTRY CRITICAL

SUCCESS FACTORS

PREFERRED

TECHNOLOGY

SOLUTIONS BASED

ON LOCALIZATION

OPPORTUNITIES

PILOT PROJECTS

ENERGY STORAGE

VALUE CHAIN

ANALYSIS

IDENTIFY CURRENT

TECHNOLOGY

PROVIDERS AND

ROLE PLAYERS

IDENTIFY SA

COMPETITIVE

ADVANTAGES FOR

LOCALIZATION

IDENTIFY

POTENTIAL

LOCALIZATION/

DOMESTICATION

PARTNERSHIPS

LOCAL

MANUFACTURING /

ASSEMBLY

CRITICAL

COMPONENT

DEVELOPMENT /

SUPPLY / R&D

MINERAL RESOURCE

BENEFICIATION /

SUPPLY / R&D

Work package number

Task already commenced18 months

1

2

3

4

4

5

5

6

7

8

5

1

66

3

Page 27: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

27 27

FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES

� Partnering

� Market (use cases)

� Technology

� Value chains

� Preferred technologies and partnerships

� Value proposition/critical success factors

� Regulatory/support framework and/or incentives

� Pilot projects / “quick wins”

� Full scale implementation

Page 28: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

28 28

PARTNERING – STEERING COMMITTEE

• SANEDI – South African National Energy Development Institute

• SAWEA – South African Wind Energy Association• SAPVIA – South African Photovoltaic Industry

Association• Eskom Research, Testing and Development• CSIR –Council for Scientific and Industrial Research• DST – Department of Science and Technology• The DTI - Department of Trade and Industry• IPP Office – Independent Power Procurement Office• EIUG – Energy Intensive User Group• Metros – City of Jo’burg and City of Cape Town

• Close co-operation with DOE – Department of Energy

Page 29: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

29 29

TECHNOLOGY

• The U.S. Trade and Development Agency (USTDA), an independent U.S. Government foreign assistance agency sponsored an Energy Storage the techno-economic assessment

• Parsons Inc., an architectural/engineering firm in the USA with experience in renewable energy and energy storage technologies, was appointed to perform the assessment.

• The team, which comprises experienced consultants from the US and SA, collaborated with the University of Stellenbosch and Gibb Engineering and Architecture as their local partners.

Page 30: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

30 30

STUDY CONTENT

• The techno-economic study is completed, released today and outputs consist of the following:

� Technology assessment � Economic assessment � Financial assessment � Developmental impact (high level) � Environmental Impact assessment � Legal and Regulatory assessment � Proposed way forward

• Objective : Stimulated engagement for development of energy storage industry and projects in South Africa

Page 31: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

31 31

SA MARKET

OPPORTUNITIES /

PRIORITIZATION

DEVELOPMENT OF

REGULATORY

FRAMEWORK

FORM INDUSTRY

DEVELOPMENT

PARTNERSHIPS

(IDC, SANEDI,

SAWEA, SAPVIA

OTHER)

SA ENERGY

STORAGE USE CASE

DEVELOPMENT

IDENTIFY

ALTERNATIVES TO

EACH OF THE ENERY

STORAGE USE

CASES

INDEPENDENTLY

ASSESS THE VALUE

OF STORAGE FOR

EACH USE CASE

CREATE SA VALUE

PROPOSITION FOR

ENERGY STORAGE

CREATE BROAD

AWARENESS OF

THE ROLE AND

VALUE FUNCTION

OF ENERGY

STORAGE

DEVELOPMENT OF

IMPLEMENTATION

AND SUPPORT

PROGRAMME

FULL SCALE

IMPLEMENTATION

ESTABLISH

STAKEHOLDER

FORUM

GLOBAL TECHNO-

ECONOMIC STUDY

IDENTIFY SUITABLE

TECHNOLOGIES

AGAINST USE CASES

(SUPPLY AND

DEMAND)

FILTER FOR SHORT

LIST OF SUITABLE

TECHNOLOGIES

CONFORMING TO

SA's NEEDS

INDUSTRY CRITICAL

SUCCESS FACTORS

PREFERRED

TECHNOLOGY

SOLUTIONS BASED

ON LOCALIZATION

OPPORTUNITIES

PILOT PROJECTS

ENERGY STORAGE

VALUE CHAIN

ANALYSIS

IDENTIFY CURRENT

TECHNOLOGY

PROVIDERS AND

ROLE PLAYERS

IDENTIFY SA

COMPETITIVE

ADVANTAGES FOR

LOCALIZATION

IDENTIFY

POTENTIAL

LOCALIZATION/

DOMESTICATION

PARTNERSHIPS

LOCAL

MANUFACTURING /

ASSEMBLY

CRITICAL

COMPONENT

DEVELOPMENT /

SUPPLY / R&D

MINERAL RESOURCE

BENEFICIATION /

SUPPLY / R&D

Work package number

Task already commenced18 months

1

2

3

4

4

5

5

6

7

8

5

1

66

3

FOCUS TO DATE

Page 32: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

DRAFT

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

Page 33: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

33 33

STORAGE APPLICATIONS VERSUS TECHNOLOGY

Page 34: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

34 34

MAIN ELEMENTS OF ESS

Grid Monitoring

and Control

ESS

Management

System

Battery Management

System

Power Conversion

Equipment

Battery System

Comprised of packs (strings) of modules containing cells and includes pack, module

and cell management systems

Balance of Plant

Systems

Boundary of Energy Storage System

Conditioning & Environmental Control

Required Power & ESS State

Power transfer & converter state

POWER

POWER

PO

WE

R G

RID

Monitorin

g & C

ontrol

Monitoring & Control

Transformer

POWER

Mo

nit

ori

ng

& C

on

tro

l

DATA

Page 35: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

35 35

STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES

• In the study more than 16 different power-to-power technologies was identified and reviewed (excluding pump storage).

• Power versus Energy applications

• These technologies have different� Performance criteria� Maturity� Risk/barriers� Advantages/disadvantages� Best use case application

• Study provide some view and comparison on this.

• Important: It is a view and different role players could have different views

Page 36: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

36 36

HIGH LEVEL COMPARISON (SAMPLE)

Page 37: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

37 37

HIGH LEVEL COMPARISON

Page 38: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

38 38

TIME FRAMES OF RELEVANCE FOR SA

Page 39: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

DRAFT

ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

Page 40: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

40 40

STORAGE BENEFITS

Storage is not a source of primary electricity – it is net electricity consumer;

It can work as generation or load, provide lots of flexibility

Page 41: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

41 41

STORAGE BENEFITS

Page 42: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

42 42

CHALLENGE - EXAMPLE

?

Page 43: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

43 43

APPROACH

Page 44: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

44 44

ASSUMPTIONS – STORAGE PRICES

Source : IRENAThis is battery cost only

Page 45: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

45 45

ASSUMPTIONS – STORAGE PRICES

Type Cost Metric 2015 2030

Lithium Ion Battery Storage Cost ($/kWh) 375 183

Power Conversion System Cost ($/kW) 300 204

Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 7.5 3.7

Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1

Flow Battery Storage Cost ($/kWh) 700 315

Power Conversion System Cost ($/kW) 300 204

Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3

Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1

• Include engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) costs;

• Assume Li-ion battery pack is replaced in year 8;

• PCS systems for Li-ion and Flow Battery replace in year 10;

• Replacements costs = capital costs of item in year of replacement

Page 46: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

46 46

FUNDING GAPS

Funding gap – the difference between the forecasted price in 2030 and the

price at which storage adoption is triggered

Page 47: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

47 47

LOCAL AND CUSTOMER BENEFITS

• Potential Grid Infrastructure Services Benefits

• Potential Customer Energy Management Services Benefits

Page 48: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

48 48

T&D DEFERRAL EXAMPLE

The deferral results in a savings of about $1 million if:

• inflation is 2%; and

• the utility weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 7.5%;

If assumed that 5 MW of load reduction is needed to achieve that deferral, the avoided cost is $200/kW ($1M/5MW)

Page 49: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

49 49

RESULTS – GRID CONNECTED STATIONARY STORAGE

• Regardless of which price evolution is assumed, no storage is currently built at national grid level for any of three cases using the base case assumptions;

• The modelling is based on bulk system benefits and does not factor in the potential of local level benefits;

• Additional benefits such as T&D deferral, voltage support need to be quantified and added to the bulk system benefits and will bring to year of first battery deployment from a least cost perspective forward;

• There is likely a system wide business case to be made for stationary batteries from 2020 onwards subject to:� Cost reduction for storage� Energy mix

Page 50: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

50 50

VALUE OF STORAGE

Page 51: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

51 51

VALUE OF STORAGE

Page 52: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

DRAFT

FINANCIAL ASSESSMENT

Page 53: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

53 53

DIMENSIONS

TECHNOLOGY BANKABILITY

COMMERCIAL READINESS

PROJECT BANKABILITY

Page 54: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

54 54

TECHNOLOGY BANKABILITY

• The rapid pace of development of new storage technologies and

project deployments is widely viewed as following the same path as

solar and wind with respect to the need for mainstream financing.

• Unlike solar and wind — energy storage projects have the potential for

multiple-use applications within a given project to enable variable

revenue streams.

• Bankability for informed financiers is determined through:

• perceived technology readiness level

• an assessment of the likely risks associated with a technology

• an evaluation whether the risks are sufficiently low and adequately

controlled or bounded

• confidence in the technical success and profitability of the project

• the technology is sufficiently mature so that performance and

reliability can be adequately predicted

Page 55: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

55 55

COMMERCIAL READINESS

• The level at which the technology is deployed determines it

commercial readiness and type of funding it could attract

o understanding market/use case (CRL 1) – R&D

o wide spread deployment (CRL 9) – commercial equity/debt

etc.

• The transition from an initial demonstration or proof-of-concept

project to full-scale commercial application can be difficult.

• This is where Governments and DFI’s need to play a critical

role.

Page 56: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

56 56

PROJECT BANKABILITY

• Bankability of an underlying technology should not be confused with

bankability of an overall specific project, which goes well beyond the

demonstrated maturity of an underlying technology.

• Bankability for a project is achieved when

(1) a lender is satisfied that a given project will be successful so that the

borrower will profit from the project and be able to repay the loan

plus interest;

(2) when a lender is satisfied that the contractual allocation of risk

between the project parties is such that, even if difficulties are

encountered, the debt will be protected so far as reasonably

possible; and

(3) A bankable project will be able to compete for non-recourse lending.

Page 57: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

57 57

COMMERCIAL FINANCE CHALLENGES

• Energy storage projects to date has not been done on project finance

• Important to identify energy storage projects that are financially sufficiently

robust to be bankable.

• The ability of projects to enter into a PPA or ESA that could provide

adequate confidence in the ability to generate and collect revenues over

the life of the project.

• The financial community is aware of the ability of an ESS to provide

multiple revenue streams through the stacking of benefits to one of more

customers. However, there is some concern whether there is adequate

experience in developing and demonstrating the control systems capable

of implementing these potentially complex algorithms.

• There is also some concern about the lack of experience in developing

ESAs to provide for multiple revenue streams.

Page 58: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

DRAFT

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

Page 59: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

59 59

ENVIRONMENTAL OBJECTIVES

Assess anticipated environmental impacts of each energy

storage technology with reference to local South African

requirements:

• identify anticipated environmental impacts, both positive and

negative, associated with each energy storage technology;

• provide recommendations for maximizing positive

environmental impacts and minimizing negative

environmental impacts

• identify key considerations and steps to comply with local

environmental requirements.

Overview of the anticipated environmental impacts of

overall adoption of energy storage technologies in South

Africa through 2030.

Page 60: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

60 60

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT IN DIFFERENT PHASES

Page 61: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

61 61

ASSUMPTIONS

• In order to determine the true environmental impact of each energy

storage technology, a high-level cradle to the grave approach was

taken.

• The impacts that are common among the technologies (such as

production of steel etc., and general construction impacts) are not

assessed.

• In order to effectively compare the various technologies, it was

assumed that each technology would aim to achieve the same

energy storage capacity to determine the differences in land

requirements, material usage etc.

• The study however, does not include the an evaluation of the

overall net impact that the introduction of an ESS might have on

the whole energy system.

Page 62: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

62 62

ASSESSMENT EXAMPLE

Phase Aspect Description Potential Impacts Potential Mitigation

Material Manufacturing Raw Material Extraction and processing

Lithium occurs as a compounded form within the environment, such as lithium carbonate (although some lithium oxide sources also exist) thereby requiring chemical processing to be developed into lithium.

Lithium carbonate is generally situated within salt flats, which are typically water scarce areas. The mining of such resources requires large amounts of water.

• Mining of lithium carbonate in salt flats has extensive negative impacts to these highly sensitive ecosystems and will have resounding effects on biodiversity [0286].

• Mining of lithium requires extremely high amounts of water, which is cause of concern due to the already scarce supply of water connected to areas being mined for lithium [0286].

• The extraction of raw materials can also have negative effects on air quality due to heavy use of machinery as well as the generation of particulate matter in the form of dust.

• Processing of the lithium will result in various forms of waste, such as emissions, effluent discharges as well as solid waste that will all have negative impacts on the environment. This is due to the toxic chemicals that are used in the leaching process required in producing elemental lithium [0286].

• Lithium is highly volatile when exposed to water thereby is a high health and safety risk [0254].

• The toxicity of chemicals used in the leaching process can also have significant health risks.

• Lithium batteries are not the only source of lithium demand, therefore, lithium will still be mined irrespective of whether the energy storage system is adopted.

Heavy metals (such as cobalt) are used within the lithium ion battery as part of the reactions required to store energy. Therefore, lithium ion batteries require the extraction of an additional battery specific element for its manufacture.

• Opencast mining of ore containing cobalt will have biodiversity and agricultural impacts relating to the disturbance of land.

• The extraction of raw materials will also have negative effects on air quality due to heavy use of machinery as well as the generation of particulate matter in the form of dust.

• Processing of the cobalt will result in various forms of waste, such as emissions, effluent discharges as well as solid waste that will all have negative impacts on the environment. This could be in the form of sulphur acid used in the stripping process, magnesium hydroxide used in the processing plant to extract cobalt or from emissions such as sulphur dioxide.

• Processing of cobalt also has a number of health risks associated to the smelting process.

• The processing of the cobalt requires a large amount of both water and energy.

• The amounts of heavy metals used in the manufacture of lithium ion batteries depends on the specific anode and cathode chemistry but is generally small enough not to pose a significant potential for environmental impact due to production

Page 63: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

63 63

RATING EXAMPLE

Cumulative Potential Impacts Rating

Low 1-10

Moderate 11-20

High 21-30

Very high >30

Page 64: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

64 64

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT COMPARISON

Technology Average Cumulative Risk Summary of Issues

Advanced Battery Systems

Lead and Advanced Lead Batteries

21 The major issues relating to the use of advanced battery systems is the use of hazardous substances in the reaction process. This has implications during various phases of the project, however, most notably during operation where Large risk associated with the high temperature for certain technologies.

This can be mitigated against through the utilization of battery technologies that use less toxic chemicals (such as ultracapacitors) or technologies that have a remarkably reduced risk of contamination from containment failure, maintenance and disposal (such as redox flow batteries).

Ultracapacitors 16

Lithium-ion Batteries 25

Vanadium Flow Batteries 17

Zinc-Bromine Flow Batteries 17

Iron-Chromium Flow Batteries 15

Sodium Sulphur Batteries 21

Fluid (Chemical) Storage Systems

Hydrogen Electrolyzer/Fuel Cell 19

The main concern regarding the use of a Hydrogen Electrolyzer/Fuel Cell is that is relies on water as a source of energy generation. Considering that South Africa is a water stressed country, intense drought experienced in 2015 and the effects of climate change, the use of the technology should be undertaken cautiously and site selection would be paramount. In terms of hydrogen, 3 to 4 l of water is required to produce the equivalent of 1 l of petrol [0355].

Mechanical Storage Systems

Flywheel Energy Storage 18

The only major consideration for flywheel energy storage is that there is considerable disturbance during establishment. However, flywheel energy storage can be considered as “green energy storage” since the potential impacts can be regarded as minimal.

Compressed Air Energy Storage 32

Compressed Air Energy Storage is considered to potentially have very significant impacts and a relatively larger scale then the other technologies. Smaller CAES with above ground tanks storage will have significantly fewer potential environmental concerns

Page 65: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

65 65

EIA FINDINGS

• Each energy storage technology presents environmental

impacts in varying degrees depending on the specific

technology, design, and materials of construction.

• The net impact is also dependent on how the systems are

operated and the manner in which they are integrated onto

the grid.

• Physical impacts are not the only concerns relating to the

introduction of large-scale energy storage systems.

• Issues relating to the South African environmental regulatory

framework must be understood and considered.

Page 66: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

DRAFT

REGULATORY PERSPECTIVE

Page 67: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

67 67

SCOPE

• Assess legislation, regulations, policies and incentives

related to the adoption of energy storage in South Africa.

• Identify international best practices for legislation,

regulations, policies and incentives to support the

deployment of energy storage

• Identify key gaps and provide recommendations for

improving South Africa’s existing legislation, regulations,

policies and incentives

• Provide recommendations related to the inclusion energy

storage technologies.

Page 68: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

68 68

KEY FINDINGS

Compared to international best practices the following

shortcomings were identified within the bigger context:

• Improvement and amendments are required to existing

legislation, regulations, policies and incentives in relation to

energy storage.

• Lack of procurement targets related to specific use cases that

can be provided by energy storage.

• Lack of specific financial “incentives and subsidies” and “tariff

structure” for energy storage.

• Lack of demonstration and pilot projects that will enable

evaluation of the different use cases and understand the

learning curve.

Page 69: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

DRAFT

WAY FORWARD

Page 70: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

70 70

FUTURE FOCUS AREAS

5Demo Projects

3Level Playing

Field

4Transformative

Policy

6Build

Infrastructure

3.2

Market Products

for Grid Services

3.4

Tariff setting and

cost recovery

5.3

Behind the Meter

Demo

3.1

Internal Value –

Grid Service

5.2

FTM Substation

Demo

4.1

Procurement

Targets

3.3

IRP Reform to

incl full value of

storage

4.2

Create

Incentives

4.3

Provide Tax

Credits

6.4

Communication

Network

6.2

Encourage IT

Development

6.3

Allow Utility

Control

5.1

Tools & analysis

to ID high value

sites

1Global and SSA Energy Storage

Market

2SA Value Chain Opportunities

2.1

Analysis of HP/

ID technology

value chain

1.1

Analysis of

global energy

storage market

1.2

Analysis of SSA

energy storage

market

1.3

Identify High

Potential (HP)

technologies

2.2

Match value to

SA Capabilities

2.3

ID SA industry

development

priorities

5.4

Community

Storage w/

Aggregator

Demo

6.1

Standardize

Energy Storage

Requirments

Page 71: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

71 71

INITIATIVES

• If South Africa wish to be part of the energy storage wave, it

is time “to get our foot in the door”

• All role players need to understand their role and be willing to

play that role

• Achieve collaboration (Government and Private Sector);

• Demonstrate the abilities of storage;

• Quantify the stacked advantages/benefits;

• Experience and understand the “learning curves”

• Assist in the development of a Energy Storage Agreement

Page 72: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

72 72

DEMONSTRATION / COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITIES

• Demonstration projects are an essential instrument to achieve the

requirements on the previous slide

• Despite current pricing, some commercial opportunities may

already exist and need to be development within :

o Distribution networks (deferrals, voltage support, etc)

o Hybrid-, Mini- or Smart grids

o Security of supply / arbitrage

o Etc…..

• In order to achieve this it will be required:

o Identify such opportunities

o Assess the business case on a case by case basis

o Secure Government support to establish a conducive

framework and environment

o Policy framework need to be place

o Close co-operation between Government and Industry

Page 73: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

73 73

KEY STAKEHOLDERS

• Industry

o ES developers

o C&I clients

o Technology providers

o Manufacturers

o Research and Development institutions

o Mining industry

• Government

o DST, theDti, DOE, DMR, DEA, DPE, National Treasury,

Nersa, etc

• Financiers

o DFIs (IDC) and Government Agencies

o Commercial banks

Page 74: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

74 74

CONCLUSION

• South Africa need to prepare itself if we wish to be part of the energy

storage growth opportunities within

o Stationary value chain

o Mobility value chain

• If South Africa wants to be part of the global ES market, we need to:

o “not try to re-invent the wheel”

o understand our competitive advantages and the sustainable

opportunities within the respective value chains;

o commence exploiting those opportunities and secure our position in

collaboration with key international partnerships

• SA cannot expect to mobilize and become only involved once the market

really take off or pricing is viable – storage is already taking off!!!

• South Africa need to be ready to supply ES solutions globally from a

locally established industry that contribute to economic growth and

developmental impact (jobs, etc.)

Page 75: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

75 75

CONCLUSION

BOLD STEPS NEED TO BE TAKEN!!!

however

ENSURE WE CRAWL BEFORE WE

RUN!!!

Page 76: ENERGY STORAGE COULD BECOME A FUTURE INDUSTRY IN SOUTH AFRICA · Fixed O&M Battery/Reservoir ($/kWh-yr) 14.0 6.3 Fixed O&M PCS ($/kW-yr) 6.0 4.1 • Include engineering, procurement

DRAFT

THANK YOU